How much do we have to spend this off-season?

[trwi7]

Doesn't seem like anybody has considered that the Brewers might cut salary for 2010 instead of spending all the money from expiring contracts on new players.

If we're cutting salary we might as well trade Fielder. Cuts over $10M and we trade him at peak value.

[Invader3K]

Doesn't seem like anybody has considered that the Brewers might cut salary for 2010 instead of spending all the money from expiring contracts on new players.

They won't do that. They want to try to draw 3 million again.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't understand the hesitation in deciding whether or not to pick up Looper's option. The obvious answer is you don't, because pitchers of his quality tend to be in abundance if you need one later to fill out the rotation.

 

Much the same is true with Bush especially if you think he'll actually get an arby raise after that lousy season. I can understand thinking he's young enough to bounce back, but if you add enough quality arms via trade or FA prior to the tender date, they shouldn't hesitate pulling the plug there either.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Looper won 14 games. That might make Melvin keep him even though it makes no sense whatsoever.

[Roderick]

I don't understand the hesitation in deciding whether or not to pick up Looper's option. The obvious answer is you don't, because pitchers of his quality tend to be in abundance if you need one later to fill out the rotation.

I'm not saying you retain Looper, but even those pitchers still are getting close to what Looper's net cost of $5.5M is. Plus you still have to pick one out of the "abundance" that is going to have a decent season - that is the real trick, isn't it. Should be interesting.

 

This article Melvin talks about how he doesn't have all that Cameron/Hardy money to spend on free agency.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/69725222.html

 

Though the Brewers traded shortstop J.J. Hardy ($4.65 million salary) for Gomez and passed on free-agent centerfielder Mike Cameron ($10 million), Melvin said it's not accurate to say the Brewers have an extra $15 million to spend on pitching.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, sounds like they don't have too much payroll flexibility after all. Says they're already at about a $78 million projected payroll. Hard not to be pessimistic with quotes like that.

[bklynbrewcrew]

If we dont have any real flexibility to add difference makers maybe we ought to think about rebuilding. Adding the likes of Davis and Washburn may keep us around .500 but really wont be enough to contend with. With that in mind we should try to sign Prince long term and if that fails we might be better off trading him now. The last thing we should do is try to tread water knowing that the window has closed.

[greeg35]

The last thing we should do is try to tread water knowing that the window has closed.

This is exactly what I think may be happening (starting last year). Melvin seems to have shifted his focus to RIGHT NOW, maybe because he figures Brauns and Fielders don't come around that often, maybe because he wants to keep his job, maybe because the club wants to continue to draw 3m fans, maybe all three or more. Either way, I think any short term decisions hurt the team's ability to compete long-term. I stopped liking Melvin's moves quite as much as soon as I noticed this shift in focus.

 

The smartest thing to do (in my opinion) is to recognize the mistake of focusing on homegrowing position players more than pitchers, change that focus (seems like that started with the last two drafts), and start the rebuild ASAP. Other people's mediocre pitching is just too darn expensive. Any money should be saved to extend Gallardo when the time is right.

[sheethead]

Yeah, sounds like they don't have too much payroll flexibility after all. Says they're already at about a $78 million projected payroll. Hard not to be pessimistic with quotes like that.

Well we just have to hope that Suppan, Riske and Bill Hall contribute to some Brewer wins this year!

[colbyjack]

I disagree that the window has closed. There is still enough talent on the team, and the starting pitching really has nowhere to go but up given how pathetic it was last year. There are enough pieces on the team that we can look to in having bounce-back, or breakout years in 2010, and the team was still third in the NL in runs scored. Losing Cameron may hurt that, but Corey Hart could make up for that if he gets back on track, and Mat Gamel may flourish if given more regular playing time.

 

Plus, when you figure in how many teams will be looking to cut payroll, and how the Cardinals may be looking at losing three integral parts of their team in Holliday, DeRosa and Piniero, all is not loss. The Brewers payroll may not be where it needs to be to go out and buy some sexy names via free agency, but that doesn't mean they should just strip down and start over.

 

That said, I can understand where and why the frustration comes in. If the team struggles during the first half of the season, I may start to agree with the idea that the team needs to strip down and start over, which would start with a trade of Prince Fielder.

[FVBrewerFan]

The smartest thing to do (in my opinion) is to recognize the mistake of focusing on homegrowing position players more than pitchers, change that focus (seems like that started with the last two drafts), and start the rebuild ASAP. Other people's mediocre pitching is just too darn expensive. Any money should be saved to extend Gallardo when the time is right.

I don't think the Brewers intentially focused on drafting position players over pitching. There have been countless high round picks spent on pitchers ove rthe past 10 years, they just haven't panned out for various reasons. Why? That's a whole other topic. But is it clear that this organization needs to figure out how to identify, draft, and develop top level pitching. If they don't, it will be diffiuclt at best for them to honestly compete for a World Series.

[pingman]

too many people on this board fail to recognize that the team must account for guaranteed salary increases due players already under team control like Fielder, Braun, Riske, etc ....Fielder, for example, is due a salary increase from $6.5mm to $10.5mm plus another $0.5mm in performance bonuses (500 plate appearances).....not to mention salary increases for guys like Hart & Bush, assuming they're not non-tendered

[greeg35]

I don't think the Brewers intentially focused on drafting position players over pitching. There have been countless high round picks spent on pitchers ove rthe past 10 years, they just haven't panned out for various reasons.

There have been some especially the past couple of years. What I am saying is that we should focus even more on drafting pitchers (like we have the past 2 years) with our high picks and with many of our other picks as well. Where in the past we have drafted: Weeks, Fielder, Braun, LaPorta, Hardy, Lawrie, among others I would like to see pitchers drafted. The hitters are needed and the hitters are nice; but they are not the valuable commodity that good, young, cheap pitchers are. I used to think the Brewers have had more trouble than most teams in drafting/developing pitchers too; but it seems our success rate is actually about average. That means you have to throw numbers at the problem IMO....basically all in an attempt to NOT have to sign people like Suppan.

[colbyjack]

What I am saying is that we should focus even more on drafting pitchers (like we have the past 2 years) with our high picks and with many of our other picks as well. Where in the past we have drafted: Weeks, Fielder, Braun, LaPorta, Hardy, Lawrie, among others I would like to see pitchers drafted. The hitters are needed and the hitters are nice; but they are not the valuable commodity that good, young, cheap pitchers are.

 

Hitters still have plenty of value. LaPorta for the most part fetched the Brewers CC Sabathia. As you noted, the team loaded up on pitchers after Lawrie last year, and with the exception of Weeks in 2003 (when the team took bats with their top five picks before taking arms with their next five), the team still used several of their other early picks on pitchers. I know it's easy to forget the promising arms from those years, but at one point in time we were a lot more excited about the likes of Tom Wilhelmsen, Will Inman, Jon Steitz, Kevin Roberts, Steve Hammond, Eric Thomas and Judd Richardson. At least pitchers like Inman, Roberts, Hammond and Steve Garrison were traded for other pieces to the puzzle.

 

And people may still choose to debate the arms packaged to acquire Linebrink and how much value they may have to the team at this point in time vs. the supplemental picks acquired by Linebrink's departure via free agency.

 

What hurts the most is that premium, first-round picks Mike Jones ('01), Mark Rogers ('04) and Jeremy Jeffress ('06) so far haven't been fruitful. Ahead of them were Nick Neugebauer and JM Gold.

 

And while the team did take three promising arms (Arnett, Heckathorn and Hall) among their picks in the top five rounds (and who knows how they will be viewed 3-5 years from now), they still loaded up on bats (Davis, Walla, Garfield, Prince and Richardson). You have to balance the two to make sure your system is equally balanced, and avoid having the reverse problem five years from now when we're wondering why Bruce Seid didn't draft more bats.

 

I honestly don't think the batter vs. pitcher selections have been the problem, unless you're talking about evaluating the picks more on an individual player-by-player basis (like wondering why the Brewers drafted Josh Murray in the 2nd round in 2002). If all things are equal I still would take the bat over the arm given the success rates of first round hitters succeeding vs. that of first round pitchers. The individual picks and how they have panned out has been the biggest problem, even if the Brewers success rate developing arms is about average (thank you Yovani Gallardo!).

 

Plus, if the Brewers are good at recognizing, drafting and developing hitters, they shouldn't steer away something they're good at just to stockpile arms hoping that a few more of them will stick. The 2008 draft was interesting to watch, but we already are left wondering the value of pitchers such as Evan Frederickson, Seth Lintz, Cody Adams and Josh Romanski.

 

It comes down to who you take, not how you take them.

[endaround]

Exactly. The Brewers have shown a knack for drafting and developing top flight hitting talent. They should not move away from that. The Braves for example tie their success to over scouting the south east and taking what they can there.

[greeg35]

I see what you are saying; it is hard to argue with drafting Braun and Fielder. I still hold the opinion that young/good bats can be found, aquired, and/or developed more easily and cheaply. A plethora of quality young pitching can most likely be found by drafting larger numbers of pitchers and can be turned into bats later (if needed) more easily than vice versa.

Our organization has made that switch already; but too late, I think, to save Melvin's job. If he conducts a mad scramble to keep his job, draw fans, or extend the Fielder/Braun window, it will hurt the franchise in the long term.

[FVBrewerFan]

Plus, if the Brewers are good at recognizing, drafting and developing hitters, they shouldn't steer away something they're good at just to stockpile arms hoping that a few more of them will stick. The 2008 draft was interesting to watch, but we already are left wondering the value of pitchers such as Evan Frederickson, Seth Lintz, Cody Adams and Josh Romanski.

See, that's where I disagree. If they don't have astrength in scouting pitching, then they need to pull a few scouts away from other teams. Wouldn't it be worth it for the Brewers to throw an extra $100,000 at a scout from...say the Dodgers that has a solid track record scouting pitchers? I just don't like the idea of settling for what the scouting dept does well. It's expecially important for a small market team to put resources (money) into scouting, because they just have to develop their own pitching staff. Otherwise you end up with a staff of overpaid vets, guys with potential, and never-will-bes.

[EauClaireNWL]

You unfortunately have to account for the roughly $24.4 million in "dead" money on the Brewers payroll this upcoming season in Suppan, Riske, and Hall's contracts. (Yes, Suppan will more than likely be on the roster this upcoming season, but he's worth no more than a 1/4th of his '10 salary at most) This is before you even get to arbitration raises too. I'd much rather let Salome and Lucroy battle it out for the starting catchers gig with Rivera backing them up with the loser of that competition down at AAA to start the season then re-sign Kendall period, even if his contract would be cheap. If we're going to go young, let these guys get their legs under them at the MLB level. (Gomez, Lucroy/Salome, Escobar, Gamel, etc.)

 

I don't really see the Brewers being big players for Lackey, but I definitely could take them taking a flyer or two on some cheap questionable starters as well as still pulling a trade for someone. If they can ship Hart somewhere (maybe in a package of a few players) and then move Braun to RF, Gamel into LF, and then keep McGehee at 3rd, I think that would more than make-up for the offensive production lost by letting Cameron walk.

 

I can also see the benefit of both picking up and declining Looper's option. You can never have enough pitching depth imo, even as mediocre as Looper was last season, he was still the most durable starter we had outside of Gallardo. If you let him go, you better make sure that $5.5 million saved goes towards someone who can actually keep their ERA at least the mid 4's.

[thebruce44]

You can never have enough pitching depth imo, even as mediocre as Looper was last season, he was still the most durable starter we had outside of Gallardo.

 

The problem is that he wasn't mediocre. If he was eating up innings at anything above replacement level he would have value. Unfortunately, that was not the case.

[colbyjack]

See, that's where I disagree. If they don't have astrength in scouting pitching, then they need to pull a few scouts away from other teams. Wouldn't it be worth it for the Brewers to throw an extra $100,000 at a scout from...say the Dodgers that has a solid track record scouting pitchers? I just don't like the idea of settling for what the scouting dept does well. It's expecially important for a small market team to put resources (money) into scouting, because they just have to develop their own pitching staff. Otherwise you end up with a staff of overpaid vets, guys with potential, and never-will-bes.

 

You seem to be arguing a different point than greeg, as I'm not suggesting that the Brewers should just ignore their problems procuring pitching talent and be happy that they can develop bats. I am arguing against drafting a boat-load of pitchers, year after year, and hoping that simply by the odds more of them stick while potentially missing out on impact bats.

 

Are you suggesting that the Brewers don't put a lot of money into scouting and player development? If so, I think you need to drop by the draft forum. That's the primary reason they are a significantly different (and better) ballclub than they were 3-5 years ago.

 

I think a simple change of leadership could mean something completely different, as Bruce Seid after one year has already shown that he will take a college pitcher early. Sure, Arnett and Heckathorn still have question marks, and upside, but at least have more seasoning than the likes of Jones/Rogers/Jeffress. I haven't made it a secret that I wished Zduriencik approached drafting pitchers much like he did with hitters. When he drafted hitters, he made sure they could hit first. When he drafted pitchers, he made sure they could throw hard first. In my own work, I place a lot more value on the pitchers that show they can command the strike zone, and would rather see a pitcher work in the 89-92 range with movement and command than someone throw 93-96 with control issues and limited overall pitching aptitude. It's not like the polished/finesse angle is infallible, otherwise Jeremy Sowers would have made me look better http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

[Patrick425]

Not sure if this was brought up yet (scanning through the thread, did not see it), but it appears that the original list on this thread of projected salaries for 2010, does not include C. Hart? Is it the general consensus that the Brewers will not offer him arbitration?

 

Also, do players basically get an automatic $2-3 million raise in arby for just staying alive for another year? Yikes, if those arby projections are anywhere close to being accurate, that's sad.

[rluzinski]

Assuming that Melvin has $15 mil, that's about 3 wins in free agency. So, one very good starting pitcher or two almost-average starting pitchers. That's it.