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Now that Hardy has been traded


paul253

What next? Its apparent Mike Cameron won't be back. Hopefully Jason Kendal is next to go. I doubt that Melvin will be able to get Lackey, so it's probably going to be 2 free agent pitchers who are somewhat risky. I think the offense is going to have to carry us again in 2010. One name out there that I like a lot is Jason Bay. I think he'd be a perfect hitter to bat behind Fielder. This would involve trading Hart and probably moving Braun to right, which shouldn't be much of a problem. Presuming either Gomez or Escobar bats first, you'd assume Weeks would bat 2, then Braun, Fielder,and Bay. McGehee/Gamel #6. Then the catcher 7th and the other one between Escobar and Gomez who isn't leading off 8th. I don't want Melvin to spend any money on a catcher. The fact is he Kendal has been putrid offensively and you can talk all you want about him being able to call a good game, but tell me how much good that did us last season. Two of your top 5 prospects are catchers and both could probably survive on the roster now, so why waste money on a catcher. Rivera/Salome should be the duo with Lucroy in Nashville.

 

I'd say if the Brewers sign Mulder, Harden/Sheets and Bay I'd be ok with the offseason. There'd have to be some additional moves for depth (Counsell, another outfielder) plus a trade of Hart for hopefully some minor league pitching, and maybe sign a journeyman starter to throw in Nashville in case of injury. The main portion of the bullpen appears set with Hoffman, Coffey, Villanueva, Stetter, Riske, and Defilice. Suppan could be the long man.

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I'm optomistic that, by going young with Gomez in CF, we are willing to give up on Kendall and go with the winner of Salome/Lucroy in spring training for catcher.

 

I also am sadly thinking that Gamel has played his last game in a brewer uniform, as I have to figure we'll be getting a starting pitcher via trade somehow, and he strikes me as the "somehow" now that our JJ chip is no longer on the table.

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Gamel is definitely the most obvious remaining trade chip for a SP. I doubt Melvin picks up a big money FA, more than like a low cost high reward guy or two. If both Looper, Cameron and Kendall are sent walking, Melvin does have the ability to take on a good chunk of salary in a trade though.
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i highly doubt that bay is an option, he will be way too expensive and that would be money better spent on pitching. i could see sheets coming back and maybe sign jon garland. garland should do better than looper and should be pretty signable. maybe i was just a really big fan of his in chicago and hope he can be better than he was on the angels and diamondbacks. gomez should be good, he'll be alot cheaper than cameron and is pretty good defensively and has GREAT speed. proto lead off hitter( even though i thought we already had 2 of those). here is what i figure the line up to be

gomez

weeks

braun

fielder

gamel/ mcgehee (whichever one we dont trade, and it better be for young pitching)

hart/ whomever is in right by trade or f/a

catcher(lucroy)/ escobar

catcher(anyone else)/ esco

pitcher

probably wouldnt be that bad, but the hitting wasnt too much of a problem last year

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I think JohnBriggs mentioned it before, but I would wait to see if Miguel Olivo and the Royals exercise the mutual option, which I believe is due either today or tomorrow. I would target him in a two-year deal with an option for a third. That gives both Lucroy and Salome a full year at AAA, and letting the best man win the backup job for 2011, with the other going back to AAA that year for more work (and depth).

 

Of course most of the team's other efforts should be on pitching.

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Royals declined catcher Miguel Olivo's $3.3 million option for 2010.

Olivo batted .249/.292/.490 with 23 homers, 65 RBI and a .781 OPS in 2009, but the Royals opted for the $100,000 buyout on his mutual option. The Royals could have a completely different look behind the plate in 2010, with John Buck a likely candidate to be non-tendered in December.

 

Buck or Olivo would be solid short term solutions behind the plate.

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I still think the Brewers are very unlikely to make the move for pitching they need to to win. Right now they basically have no #1 starter and no #3 starter. They have a 2 (Gallardo), and a bunch of 4's and 5's (Parra, Bush, Suppan, Looper if they bring him back). They are not going to sign Halladay, and they are not going to sign Lackey, which pretty much means they can't sign a #1. They don't have enough to trade for a #1 unless they trade Fielder, which I'm sure they won't. To me all this means they are going to have to hope to win with offense. Although I agree Bay is a longshot, he'd be an ideal player for our offense. I still consider him to be somewhere between a very good to an elite offensive player (.921 OPS last season). He just turned 31 so I realize he's not getting any younger but I think he can stay productive for a few more years. And if you sign him to a multiyear deal it would certainly soften the blow when Fielder leaves. I'd offer him a 4 year deal somewhere in the $15-$17 million a year range. On top of the savings by letting Hardy, Cameron, and hopefully Kendall go, the Brewers also have a ton coming off the books next year in Suppan, Hall, and Riske (and maybe Hoffman). I think we can take on a huge contract and still have enough money left to sign two pitchers to one or two year deals.
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With Olivo leaving KC, maybe we can trade Salome plus Hart to the Royals for pitching? By all accounts Lucroy has surpassed Salome at this point. Do the Royals have Oliva's replacement in place?

 

I think the next move will be trading either Gamel + prospects or Hart + prospects for pitching and signing a free agent pitcher (probably Washburn). I don't see us signing a big ticket OF like Jason Bay or Matt Holiday, but given Melvin's penchant for over-estimating hitting vs pitching, it wouldn't shock me...

 

If they are clearing lots of salary, I think its possible the Brewers try to put together a mega-deal extension for Prince Fielder

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I think we get Mulder, one of Washburn or Davis, and a trade for a solid #3. Maybe Guthrie and a pitching prospect for Gamel or McGehee. Sounds like Baltimore fans think third base is more of an issue for them than SS based no reading some knowledgable people at www.orioleshangout.com .

 

My longershot is Lackey or a trade for Lowe. Before getting Hardy and essentially Cameron's salaries off the books, I would not have thought either possible. Now, a part of me is thinking this particular Twins trade was made with one of these two in mind.

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I would Trade Gamel and whatever other prospects needed to get King Felix here.
You're dreaming.

 

I would think the Brewers make a run at Harden, Bedard, or Sheets. Besides Tim Lincecum, Felix may be the most untouchable pitcher in the Major Leagues.

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Most of us assumed that the brewers would sign one SP and trade hardy/gamel for another pitcher when Mevlin addmitted his plans to getting 2 SPs. The only way I would approve of the brewers trading Gamel is if they can acquire a #1 or a very good #2 SP with at least 2yrs on their contract. As of right now i just dont see that happening unless we could somehow get Josh Johnson. So I think they may sign any of the injury prone pitchers like sheet, duke or bedard and go after a washburn or davis type. I think it would be safe to say we could get any of those guys on 2yr 18 mil deal. This would solidify our pitching for the next two years and keep money to resign the prince.
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What I wouldn't mind seeing is trade Hart for pitching, sign Austin Kearns for RF. Decline Looper's option, sign Jon Garland and Mulder to incentive laden deals, and try to bring back Sheets. Sign either Miguel Olivo or or Yorvit Torrelba to platoon with Lucroy. That would be a positive offseason in my mind.....along with trading Soup for whatever you could get for him.
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I posted this elsewhere but Olivo is probably the worst defensive C in baseball. Not sure that is who we want to go after.
No UZR for catchers over at fangraphs so you are going to have to use fielding percentage and the eye test to judge this one.
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No UZR for catchers over at fangraphs so you are going to have to use fielding percentage and the eye test to judge this one.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/more-on-catchers-fieldingwppb/

http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/10/13/1082419/2009-catcher-defense-filling-in

 

Not to mention he has a reputation as a poor defensive C, which of course isn't always accurate.

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i can't see the brewers making a serious play for jason bay even though i, too, crave his offense. thing is, he's terrible in the field. signing him to a 4 year deal would be crippling if his bat becomes average and his contract can't be moved because he's certainly not going to get any better in the field.

 

as for pitching, i'm on board with chasing a harden/sheeter/bedard type + a vet. clearly, signing an injury-prone starter creates the need to sign at least one more guy. how about noah lowry? where's chris capuano? those guys could come dirt cheap and could pay big dividends.

 

i don't want to see washburn in a brewers uni. counsell gives me enough hometown boy nightmares.

 

EDIT: rich text (not html) joke's on me...

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Are people really thinking Mark Mulder can be a starting pitcher again?
Well, yes several are insisting it is possible. Though anything is possible, I'm with you. There is no chance as I mentioned several months ago that Mulder returns to form. I can see the Crew getting him because of the Rick Peterson connection and the fact that Milwaukee seems to like these types of pick-ups.

 

It would be better if the front office concentrated on getting real healthy pitching as opposed to trading for a CF or picking up a SP who has not pitched for 3 years . I sure hope they package one or two of our OF prospects including Gomez and/or Gerut for a #1. It may cost us Gamel, McGehee and/or Hart as well, but at least it is better than throwing 10 lbs of something on a wall hoping two stick (Mulder).

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