JJ Hardy to Twins for Carlos Gomez

[The Truth]

I agree that Melvin would have gotten a much higher return on Hardy if he had traded him last off-season. Thats my biggest knock on Melvin, he doesn't time things well with his own players on occasion (Hardy, Hall).

 

Hindsight is 20/20 though

[And That]

14 million bucks. When people analyze this trade, can we please stop forgetting the 14 million the Brewers saved?

This isn't exactly true... we saved whatever Hardy would have made in arbitration minus whatever Gomez will make in arbitration. The decision on Cameron is at least a partially separate issue.

 

Having Gomez on the roster does not by itself preclude Cameron from being on the roster also. I know Melvin said they wouldn't pursue Cameron this offseason, but it wouldn't be the biggest waste of resources to have Cameron back and let Gomez work on things in AAA for a year.

[bklynbrewcrew]

The Brewers must have really soured on Lorenzo Cain if they think Gomez is the CF of the future.

[The Truth]

The words that scare me in Melvin's quotes are that he now has money to "spread around". With Melvin's track record that sounds like a bunch of Suppan/Johnny Estrada types

 

Junk plus junk plus Prince Fielder plus Ryan Braun plus more junk plus exciting young players = lots of media hype and an 80 win season

[MJLiverock]

I'm not going to pick out individual posts but I disagree with a number of the thoughts supporting this trade.

 

1. JJ Hardy wasn't going to bring a #2 pitcher --- no kidding, but there is no rule that the Brewers can only trade 1 for 1, Hardy could have been packaged with other prospects to get a better ML pitcher or AA+ pitcher with upside. The team is still trying to figure out what to do with McGhee and Gamel, and one of the minor league catchers on top of it not even being winter meetiings yet, it is only the 2nd day of the offseason. I can't believe there were so many teams after Gomez that Melvin couldn't have waited a few weeks to try and work out something better that included some pitching.

 

2. The step down from Cam to Gomez isn't much - - Gomez has over 1100 PA in the majors and a career OBP of .292 with his most recent season being .287, not showing improvement yet. Cameron has put up an OBP of .342 in his most recent year and can pretty much be penciled in for .340 while slugging at a much higher level than Gomez. For all the strikeout haters that like to rip on Cameron; Gomez strikes out nearly as much but without any power whatsoever or ability to actually get on base.

 

3. Gomez and Escobar bring speed - - Gomez is 74% succesfull on SB's so right around the break even level but as in #2 you can't steal first base. The team also doesn't run very much anyway and unless Macha is going to change his philosophy speed won't matter all that much.

 

4. Had to save money by letting Cam walk and needed to fill CF -- Who is Melving going to spend the money on? The free agent crop isn't that great for pitchers and the trade chips are dwindling for taking on a good MLer with a higher salary. Signing guys like Washburn, Davis, Pinerio might very well be Suppan v2.0. Gerut can play CF with a platoon mate and if Gomez is that platoon mate than Melvin really got fleeced trading Hardy for a platoon player. After 2010 Cain may just as ready to match Gomez's output anyway without trading Hardy.

 

5. Gomez was a top prospect and part of the Santana deal - - the key word is was. Baseball is littered with guys who were top prospects who didn't pan out. Many thought the Twins got fleeced in the Santana deal to begin with. Gomez has done nothing in 1100 ML PA's so that toolsy upside is starting to wear thin and comparisons to a cetain Lastings Milledge may start to appear.

 

I just don't see anyway this is an improvement for the Brewers by downgrading their offense this much and not improving the pitching one bit. They have some money to spend but after seeing this deal on top of Melvin's track record with pitching I have next to zero confidence he will improve the team with it.

[Oldcity]

Gomez is already better than Gwynn and actually has potential. As multiple people have mentioned, the Brewers aren't limited to just free agents. I think Aaron Harang is a good example of someone they could add without giving up too much in a trade--just take on his whole salary.

[RobDeer 45]

Big freaking deal we saved money that we can use to sign "2 pitchers" with. Like who? What big pitcher is out there let alone two that we have a realistic chance at signing? I prefer we don't spend a bunch on pitching because I don't want to be stuck with another Suppan. We should of just kept Tony Gwyn Jr.

He's better than TGJ in the field and his speed is unmatched. Wait and see what happens.

[YoungGeezy]

The Brewers must have really soured on Lorenzo Cain if they think Gomez is the CF of the future.

Cain is around the same age and is still considerably behind where Gomez is right now. Defensively and even offensively even though Gomez still has to develop much more

[Oldcity]

14 million bucks. When people analyze this trade, can we please stop forgetting the 14 million the Brewers saved?

This isn't exactly true... we saved whatever Hardy would have made in arbitration minus whatever Gomez will make in arbitration. The decision on Cameron is at least a partially separate issue.

 

Right, my mistake. 14.65 mil is what Hardy+Cameron made last year. It would have been fairly close to that this year, in all likelihood.

[logan82]

I didn't read all the way through here, but people who think we are giving up a lot of offense (especially OPS) need to look at what JJ and Cam did last year vs. what Escobar and Gomez will do this year. Cam and JJ combinded for around a 330 OBP (mostly from Cam). Escobar and Gomez are capable of something similar and both players have a lot of upside. Factor in the cost savings, and while I don't like the trade, I don't hate it either.

 

What we need to do is look at all the players would be expected to do in the future not what they did last year. JJ had a down year and should be expected to hit better than he did in 2009. Why would we look at only JJ's terrible last year to make a decision on him while ignoring the fact that he is more than likely a much better hitter than he was last year. That makes no sense at all.

 

I really dislike this deal. We just made Kendall the second worst hitter in our lineup. I would have rather brought back Corey Patterson than trade for this guy and I hate Patterson. I know we needed a CF for next year since I believe that the Yankees will make a big offer for Cameron but, this trade looks like a waste of resources. Gomez and Escobar should be expected to upgrade our defense minimally if at all. Now we can waste a huge +$!*+ of money on an aging, declining starting pitcher. I would have rather brought up Cain and held onto JJ for picks in a couple years than make this deal.

[trwi7]

Gomez is already better than Gwynn and actually has potential.

Gwynn had a 2.8 WAR this year. Gomez has been a 3.3 WAR player in his career.

[YoungGeezy]

Gomez is already better than Gwynn and actually has potential.

Gwynn had a 2.8 WAR this year. Gomez has been a 3.3 WAR player in his career.

plus Gwynn is older by 3 or so years

[ELCABALLO45]

Gomez is already better than Gwynn and actually has potential.

Gwynn had a 2.8 WAR this year. Gomez has been a 3.3 WAR player in his career.

Gwynn Jr is 27 years old

[Oldcity]

I wish people would stop comparing Gomez to people like Corey Patterson and Tony Gwynn. Gomez blows them away defensively (especially Patterson) and still has some potential left. DM made the comparison to Michael Bourn. Bourn was probably the worst everyday player in 2008 but had a very nice 2009.

[Mr QL]

this reminds me a lot of the Melky Cabrara for Cameron thing last year that almost went down except I like Gomez potenial a lot more

Carlos Gomez makes Melky Cabrera look like Mickey Mantle.

 

I wouldn't feel so bad if we dumped Hardy for salary if we actually got a decent young piece back but lets be serious here. Carlos Gomez sucks. He has speed... and that's it. Now imagine him if he wasn't allowed to run on those few times he actually does reach base. I don't believe he'll ever be a good player.

[ELCABALLO45]

Fanhouse reaction to the trade... http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2009/11/06/j-j-hardy-traded-for-carlos-gomez/

 

Still, he's only going to be 24 on Opening Day, 2010, and the Brewers can plug him into center field in place of most-likely-departing Mike Cameron. Gomez makes much more sense for the Brewers than Cameron anyway, considering his age and the fact that the Brewers already have enough power. They need table-setters. If Gomez can find a way to work his OBP up to the .350 (or more) range, he'll be a very valuable cog in the Milwaukee lineup.

[Oldcity]

Gomez is already better than Gwynn and actually has potential.

Gwynn had a 2.8 WAR this year. Gomez has been a 3.3 WAR player in his career.

 

I meant to say defensively. And Gwynn's numbers were only produced once he started getting everyday playing time, which Gomez hasn't gotten yet.

[ELCABALLO45]

this reminds me a lot of the Melky Cabrara for Cameron thing last year that almost went down except I like Gomez potenial a lot more

Carlos Gomez makes Melky Cabrera look like Mickey Mantle.

 

I wouldn't feel so bad if we dumped Hardy for salary if we actually got a decent young piece back but lets be serious here. Carlos Gomez sucks. He has speed... and that's it. Now imagine him if he wasn't allowed to run on those few times he actually does reach base. I don't believe he'll ever be a good player.

Again, he is arguably the best defensive CF in baseball. He plays defense at a rate which only a few can challange him at. Hes arguably the fastest player in baseball. He is 23 years old (going to be 24). He can develope into a better hitter. So saying "Carlos Gomez sucks" is not the correct answer

[endaround]

Fanhouse reaction to the trade... http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2009/11/06/j-j-hardy-traded-for-carlos-gomez/

 

Still, he's only going to be 24 on Opening Day, 2010, and the Brewers can plug him into center field in place of most-likely-departing Mike Cameron. Gomez makes much more sense for the Brewers than Cameron anyway, considering his age and the fact that the Brewers already have enough power. They need table-setters. If Gomez can find a way to work his OBP up to the .350 (or more) range, he'll be a very valuable cog in the Milwaukee lineup.

 

And if he hit 50 home runs it would be a steal for the Brewers!

[RobDeer 45]

JJ HARDY HAS NO TRADE VALUE!!! People can't you see that. Everything is going against the Brewers when looking to trade him. Bad year, we have a good SS that has been pushing him for a few years, he's going to be a FA soon. What team would pay much for him? Answer: Nobody. Sure he could have been a part of a package deal but what do we have to trade away that would get pitching besides Fielder? You can't offer a bunch of below average players to get a good young pitcher. We aren't the Yankees guys, we have to take what we can get at some spots and take risks.

[YoungGeezy]

I remember when this team was made of potential and everyone loved it. Now we have this 23 year old who was a top 10? top 20? prospect in all of the minors a few years ago with potential up the wazoo and now every is crying. Gomez isn't a bust, he is a prospect that Twin fans were extremely excited for. Even that his bat hasn't came around yet Twin fans loved the kid.

[The Truth]

Many thought the Twins got fleeced in the Santana deal to begin with.

'Cept now they can turn around and say that 2 years of a former MLB All-Star in JJ Hardy is part of what the Santana trade brought in! Media hype to sell tickets always fascinates me.

 

I agree the Twins got fleeced in that deal, though I don't think thats a reflection on Gomez really. Phillip Humber has been a pretty awful pitcher for both the Twins and in AAA ball the last 2 years. Kevin Mulvey has pitched OK in AAA ball, not great. Deolis Guerra hasn't exactly been lights out in A ball or AA although at least he's a young pitcher.

 

3 young non-phenom pitchers plus Gomez for Johan freakin' Santana! Yes, the Twins got fleeced bigtime.

[trwi7]

Gwynn Jr is 27 years old

So what?

[rluzinski]

I will have to reserve final judgement on this trade until I can analyize it more carefully. I will say that I don't think Gomez projects to be even an average outfielder next year (even with his great defense), so it's very hard to get excited about this trade. As bad as Hardy was offensively last year, he STILL had a better offensive season AS A SS than Gomez did. Most likely, Hardy's 2010 offensive production will fall somewhere between his 2008 and 2009 seasons, so I think the true offensive difference between both players is much larger than their 2009 difference. Even with Hardy getting paid much more, this initially looks like a very bad deal.

 

As for swapping Gomez with Cam, it obviously projects to be a huge step down from Cameron's 2008 performance but:

 

1. We probably shouldn't expect Cam to be as good as he was last year.

2. We have no idea what it would have taken to keep Cam here.

 

Still, Cam is easily worth a couple of wins over Gomez, projection-wise.

 

All this can be discounted by some due to the fact that I am not in love with home runs.

 

You know what I'm in love with? Runs. I am in love so much with runs that my love for HRs is EXACTLY proportional to the amount of runs an average HR is worth. You can get slightly different run values, depending on how you estimate it, but here's one example:

 

1B = 0.47 runs

2B = 0.78 runs

38 = 1.09 runs

HR = 1.40 runs

 

Which of course means that I love HRs about 3 times more than a single.

 

I LIKE home runs, but I will not worship a player because they can hit X amount of them in a season (especially when a bulk of the home run total occurs in a span of two or three weeks throughout a 6 month season).

 

Ignoring the accuracy of your criticism, the distribution of production for a player over a season has little effect on his overall value. Take two players on different teams. Each hits 40 HRS for a season:

 

Player 1: 1 HR for the first 40 games, none after

Player 2: 1 HR every 4 games

 

It simply doesn't matter, in terms of wins. In the end, that's what really matters, right? Now, if you take a theoretical player that hits 5 HRS for the first 8 games and then no more, that's different. But what you seem to be talking about..... it only matters to the perception of some fans.

[joepepsi]

As fangraphs notes, Hardy has led all of baseball in STAR (Studliness Tally Above Replacement) 3 years running. How is Doug going to replace that? That's what I'd like to know.