JJ Hardy to Twins for Carlos Gomez

[battlekow]

I heard Hardy is headed for the DL again.

Yep, same left wrist injury that put him on the DL last month.

[TheCrew07]

It's too bad JJ and Rickie have been hurt so much early in their careers.

[stalton]

I thought I saw an article (possibly linked in this thread) where even though JJ's stats are mediocre, the Twinkies win a lot more games with JJ than without. I guess we'll see if thats true.

[monty57]

The more I see Gomez the more I like him. His OBP is far too low for a guy who would ideally hit leadoff or in the two-hole but he seems to have a knack for coming up with hits in big situations.

 

Do you guys see him as the future in CF?

No, imo. Cain should be promoted to Nashville soon. If he hits there and continues to get on base, he'd be the prime candidate to take over in 2011.

If I had to guess, Cain will be up in RF next year, with Gomez in CF (assuming Hart is traded so as not to have to pay him $7-8MM next year). Then, Gomez will be traded when our young corner OFs are ready, at which point Cain will take over in CF.

 

I agree Gomez really needs to improve his OBP. It's going to be hard to do with Edmonds getting most of the starts in CF as the LH part of the current platoon. Unless Hart cools down or is traded, or if Edmonds' 40-year-old body can't hold up to playing nearly everyday, Gomez will rot away on the bench this season and therefore will likely regress rather than progress as a hitter.

[trwi7]

Just wanted to bump this thread. Carlos Gomez has been better than expected (or as expected, if you trusted the more optimistic views on him), while Hardy has continued to stink on ice for the Twins. Slash lines as of today --

 

Hardy: .233/.283/.357/.639

 

Gomez: .258/.294/.417/.710

 

 

It's kind of unbelievable to me how far Hardy has fallen off. This trade is exactly the kind of trade people have been calling for Melvin to make, except obviously it wasn't for pitching. Melvin looks to have done an admirable job in getting a high-upside, cost-controlled player while still selling low.

Bumping this back up with just a few days left in the season.

 

Gomez: .247/.298/.358/.656, 0.9 WAR

 

Hardy: .276/.327/.406/.733, 2.6 WAR

 

Cain: .287/.331/.388/.719, 0.9 WAR in 150 less at bats.

 

Escobar: .236/.287/.328/.615, 0.3 WAR

 

Just a horrible, horrible trade.

 

[homer]

I think you need to throw Escobar's stats in there too.

 

Not that it makes things look any better. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ennder]

I didn't like the trade at the time but most of the stats being used to compare these players at this time are just useless.

[LouisEly]

1) While Hardy may have been better, they still wouldn't be in the playoffs.

 

B) Hardy's trade value wouldn't be any higher, and possibly lower.

 

3) Hardy has only played in 99 games so far this season. He's missed over 1/3rd of the season.

 

Maybe they would get a Type B free agent comp pick, but would they want to offer him arby with Escobar? Would he be worth risking ~$6M next year?

 

Calling it a "horrible" trade is a bit of an exaggeration.

[SenatorShriv]

Most of the stats being used to compare these guys are useless? I guess I don't follow.

 

It is a full season worth of stats so there isn't any sample size problem. Which stat don't you agree with? BA? OBP? WAR? OPS? What would be the correct stat to evaluate Hardy and Gomez at this point?

 

At the beginning of the season many thought that this team could be a playoff contender if some things broke the right way and we added a couple of key role players. Obviously the wheels came completely off this season for a variety of reasons, but there is no doubt in my mind that this team would have been much better with Hardy at short and someone (anyone) else in center. This was a horrible trade. We traded a proven asset for a high risk / high reward prospect. There wasn't any reward.

[logan82]

At the beginning of the season many thought that this team could be a playoff contender if some things broke the right way and we added a couple of key role players.

 

What is this based off of? I would say only a handful of people actually thought the Brewers could be a playoff team at the start of the season. Most thought we were a low 80 or high 70 win team.

[Thurston Fluff]

It is a full season worth of stats so there isn't any sample size problem

 

99 game is not a whole season. Hardy has not been durable at all. Which was one major reason not to risk keeping him. I also don't think a direct comparison of stats in year one of Escobar's major league career is the best way to rate the trade. Escobar should get better. He was ready to take the next step in his career and learn what it takes to be a major league player. He has his rookie season in the books now and can use that experience as a learning tool going forward. It is hard to ever learn what it takes to be a major league player unless you get the shot at being one. Getting that experience in a season where there was minimal team expectations only makes it the best time to break him in. Conversely if he doesn't improve we'll know one year sooner and have a better chance of lining up an alternative when the rest of the team is competitive.

[SenatorShriv]

Maybe I surround myself with optimists... I expected the Brewers to be competitive in the division and thought that with a little bit of luck we could have been in the race and possibly made appropriate moves mid-season to keep us in the running. Obviously I was completely wrong and maybe I was delusional for thinking the team could be competitive in the first place.

To be clear I'm a huge fan of Escobar. I think that he could develop into something truly special. But I don't think it would have been the end of the world to let him spend another season in AAA refining his skills.

Mostly I was disappointed with the return that we got on the trade. JJ Hardy was enough of a proven commodity that I thought we could have gotten something better in return. I know for a fact that I was right about that now because ANYTHING would have been better than Gomez.


(adjusted font size --1992)

 

[thebruce44]

At the beginning of the season many thought that this team could be a playoff contender if some things broke the right way and we added a couple of key role players.

 

What is this based off of? I would say only a handful of people actually thought the Brewers could be a playoff team at the start of the season. Most thought we were a low 80 or high 70 win team.

I saw us as an 84ish win team. Things break right, you make a move at the deadline, and you can at the very least contend with that talent level. I seem to remember most people agreed with that line of thinking.

[logan82]

I may have overstated it a bit but we needed more than just a couple players to play over their norms with almost nothing else going wrong to get to the high 80's and make a push. Of course we could have made the playoffs if things went our way. That is true for almost any team.

[Ennder]

I may have overstated it a bit but we needed more than just a couple players to play over their norms with almost nothing else going wrong to get to the high 80's and make a push. Of course we could have made the playoffs if things went our way. That is true for almost any team.

 

I just don't think any team in our division was clearly better than an 84 win team going into the season other than maybe the Cardinals if they had good luck with health. I thought the Brewers could contend more because the division is weak than anything else.

[Invader3K]

I just don't think any team in our division was clearly better than an 84 win team going into the season other than maybe the Cardinals if they had good luck with health. I thought the Brewers could contend more because the division is weak than anything else.

 

Good point; especially considering the Brewers are currently in third place. Without that disastrous losing streak in May, I'm convinced Melvin would have made a move to shore up the starting pitching. We could likely be looking at an NL Central title if that had played out.

[Ennder]

Yeah. keep in mind over the past 120 games the Brewers are 62-58 with a team ERA of 4.34 and obviously a solid offense. The first 40 games we went 15-25 with an ERA of 5.28. The pitching came out with almost every pitcher on the team underperforming and just built too big of a hole for us to realistically come out of. Part of that can be blamed on personel choices but a lot of it was just bad starts which are part of baseball.

[gregmag]

I am not any kind of a reflexive DM basher -- I think overall he has been an effective GM -- but this was a bad trade. Escobar wasn't ready to hit at the MLB level, Hardy was a streaky player coming off a horrible year, and Gomez hadn't shown a thing with the bat. The only thing you couldn't have predicted with some confidence is how quickly Cain was ready. I don't think Hardy over Escobar would have put us into contention, but it wouldn't have cost anything except a little salary to try. Given that we got a better player than Gomez for Edmonds, I'm betting we could have gotten a better player than Gomez for Hardy in-season.

[rluzinski]

I agree that the trade has not worked out but Melvin never had the expectation of Gomez outperforming Hardy this year.

[trwi7]

I agree that the trade has not worked out but Melvin never had the expectation of Gomez outperforming Hardy this year.

 

But he had the expectation of him performing better than his career norms, which he didn't do.

[rluzinski]

But he had the expectation of him performing better than his career norms, which he didn't do.

 

My point was that just throwing up their stats isn't enough.

[TooLiveBrew]

Warning: Do not read this post if you don't want to get more pissed about Carlos Gomez, or if you don't want to imagine what X ellence will have to say...

 

FanGraphs' & Disciples of Uecker's Jack Moore with a solid article, Hardy Under the Radar

The Twins have plenty of quality players who will get their due

attention as the American League Divison Series unfolds. I suspect that J.J. Hardy

might not be one of those players, and he most certainly hasn’t

received the credit he is due for his performance on the field this

season.

 

A large part of this is probably due to a slow start. Hardy posted OBPs below .290 in both April and May and missed large chunks of both May and June, playing only a combined 15 games in those two months. Hardy hit his stride in the second half of the season, however, posting a .304/.363/.429 line over the last three months. Overall, Hardy hit .268/.320/.393, eerily similar to his career line of .263/.323/.423 – the 30 point difference in slugging percentage can be easily explained by the cavernous Target Field. Hardy’s wRC+ this season ended at 96 against a career average of 98.

 

Hardy’s 96 wRC+ actually comes within 3 points of all the other American League leaders at SS (Cliff Pennington, Derek Jeter, Marco Scutaro, and Alexei Ramirez all fall between 95 and 99) besides Alex Gonzalez,

whose numbers trailed off quite a bit after a trade to the Atlanta

Braves. Although Hardy can hit a little, the majority of his value comes

from his stellar defense at this premium position.

 

The scouting report from Brewerfan.net nails it on Hardy’s defense.

J.J. has excellent range at shortstop, more due to pure

instinct than quick feet. He puts away virtually everything he gets to,

and has a strong and accurate arm. His defense would have played in the

majors the day he was drafted.

The fantastic range is why Hardy is rated highly by every defensive

metric available today. Over about 4.5 full seasons, UZR rates Hardy as a

+41 SS, DRS rates him as +38, and TotalZone rates him at +23.

Regardless of which one you choose, Hardy has provided fantastic value

as a solid glove shortstop, and both the scouting reports and the eye

test back that up.

 

Hardy might not have been as good as his +8 UZR suggests in such a small

sample, but the fact that he put up 1.6 WAR in 375 plate appearances

before factoring in defense is enough to merit a look. Throw in the fact

that a +8 UZR in that sample is legitimately attainable for somebody

with Hardy’s defensive prowess, and you have a shortstop that could

arguably be the best remaining in the playoffs.

[logan82]

Sigh, I hate you Carlos Gomez.

[joepepsi]

It's important to remember the real reason Hardy was traded was his relatively high salary and the fact a younger, cheap, good defensive ss was in AAA.

[Thurston Fluff]

It's important to remember the real reason Hardy was traded was his relatively high salary and the fact a younger, cheap, good defensive ss was in AAA.

 

Not to mention Hardy's durablity history. He seems a lot older than he really is. He is not the type of guy you can pencil in for 150 games a season even if he isn't injured per say. Escobar by comparison was in 145 games as a rookie. Hardy did that twice in his career and later complained he was tired and needed a break the last time he played that much. Hardy is a good player but he isn't dependable enough to pay a lot for.