JJ Hardy to Twins for Carlos Gomez

[pebadger]

There does not appear to be a lot of gloom and doom for Twins fans, however.

 

http://www.twincities.com...96049?source=most_viewed

Yeah, anybody who was questioning Hardy's defense (and there were some) has to know that they were likely wrong when a team constructed like the Twins trades for JJ to be their number 1 guy at a position like shortstop Always thought JJ was a much better organizational fit over there than Gomez was in Milwaukee (which is not to comment on either's general value as a player).

[TheCrew07]

I've always been high on Cain, and I'm pretty high on Schafer, so I didn't and still don't view acquiring Gomez as a position of organizational need or smart move in general. Of course I like toolsy players, who doesn't? However I would have much rather signed a stop gap to Cain. Granted our OF defense will be pretty good with Gomez and Cain, but offensively either one of those 2 guys is pretty weak in a corner OF spot. Lawrie and Gamel are potentially better fits in RF if they don't stick in the IF. Actually, McGehee in LF would be ideal, but I really despise the idea of Braun playing RF.

[Ennder]

Those cost savings got us three years of Randy Wolf

 

Wolf has a 4.5-ish ERA and has been pretty much what was to be expected. Considering the value that a 4.5 ERA has to this staff (sadly), I disagree with your gloom about that signing.

 

Two years from now, I reserve the right to change my mind, though.

Wolf should be expected to have a true ERA around 4.25. He has a career ERA of 4.17 and his 3 year peripherals match his career peripherals or are a little bit better than them. Now playing with such a bad defense behind him might turn that into a 4.50 ERA but that is another problem altogether.

 

 

[RockCoCougars]

Those cost savings got us three years of Randy Wolf

 

Wolf has a 4.5-ish ERA and has been pretty much what was to be expected. Considering the value that a 4.5 ERA has to this staff (sadly), I disagree with your gloom about that signing.

 

Two years from now, I reserve the right to change my mind, though.

Wolf should be expected to have a true ERA around 4.25. He has a career ERA of 4.17 and his 3 year peripherals match his career peripherals or are a little bit better than them. Now playing with such a bad defense behind him might turn that into a 4.50 ERA but that is another problem altogether.

 

Again, very close parallels to the 'Suppan is pitching to career norms' posts from two years ago. Wolf would be a fine #4 starter on a good team, but I'm not on board with him being the number 2 here. Color me unimpressed with his work so far. Hopefully someone is looking for starting pitching at the deadline, and Melvin has the brains to move him for a warm body.

[sveumrules]

Color me unimpressed with his work so far.

So you were expecting him to outperform his past three year averages all while getting a year older and coming to a more hitter friendly home park with an inferior defense behind him? Maybe your expectations were just too high to begin with.

[RockCoCougars]

sveumrules]

Color me unimpressed with his work so far.

So you were expecting him to outperform his past three year averages all while getting a year older and coming to a more hitter friendly home park with an inferior defense behind him? Maybe your expectations were just too high to begin with.

No, I didn't have very high expectations, which is why I was against the signing once I found out it was for 3 years at too much money. Once again Melvin signed a mediocre, older, soft-tosser coming off a career season in a pitcher's park- from a high payroll team that made no effort to resign him, none the less. I fail to see the 'career norms' logic, because that is basically conceding 'we knew he sucked when we signed him'. That falls to Melvin.

 

EDIT: Staying on topic, I do give Melvin credit for letting Cameron walk and not overpaying him. Gomez hasn't missed a beat in the field and not much of a downgrade the plate. Less homers, but a lot less whiffs as well.

[logan82]

It wasn't the SLG we lost with Gomez so much as the OBP .342/.452/.795 to .301/.411/.712 is a huge downgrade at the plate. I think Gomez can hit better than he is now but so far he is 40 points of OBP lower than Cameron was last year.

 

I am not even going to get into the strikeout thing. If you believe they matter, don't stop believing.

[TheCrew07]

sveumrules]

RockCoCougars wrote: Color me unimpressed with his work so far.

So you were expecting him to outperform his past three year averages all while getting a year older and coming to a more hitter friendly home park with an inferior defense behind him? Maybe your expectations were just too high to begin with.

A 3 year average is fine and dandy for a player in their prime, but career trends are more important than anything else when trying to predict future success. For aging players, I really don't care at all what they did 2 years ago much less 3 years ago. In the end none of that has anything to do with how a pitcher will actually perform this season. We can project all we want, but when a guy stinks, he stinks. While we have to guard against over reaction, as the sample size to continues to grow, the more definitive conclusions we can draw.

 

In Wolf's case, he's been very average since 2005, claimed to find something in Houston in 2008 to rejuvenate his career, and pitched well in 2009 for LA. Contrary to what's been previously posted, his peripherals do not line up at all. In 2009 his BB rate was only 2.4 while pitching for LA, the best mark of his career since 2004. His BB rate is currently 4.5. Since 2007 his K rate has been trending downwards from 8.2, to 7.7, to 6.3, and currently sits at 5.9. Yea we're only 2 months into the season, but when you look at his entire career, what recent season looks like the outlier? What do the trends tell you?

 

I'm not going to say Wolf is finished, obviously I argued vehemently against both Wolf and Davis being signed, I've made all of these peripheral and stuff arguments before so my opinion remains biased. It wasn't hyperbole when I said that there was a strong possibility Wolf would be the worst pitcher on the staff by the time his contract was up, I wasn't exaggerating for effect, I've just never liked what I saw when examining him as a pitcher.

[logan82]

In Wolf's case, he's been very average since 2005, claimed to find something in Houston in 2008 to rejuvenate his career, and pitched well in 2009 for LA.

 

Wolf was finally healthy for a full year in 2008. Hard to put to much stock in a year when a pitcher was hurt for a good portion of it.

[TheCrew07]

He was only in Houston for something like 12 starts, he wasn't pitching well for the Padres at all. Hiis only period of above average pitching since 2005 was Houston - LA. His peripherals were better when he was hurt... I completely agree with the idea that our team defense is bad, but the defense has nothing to do how many guys a pitcher walks or strikes out. BB rates do not include IBBs which could be defense related. I made all these same arguments with Suppan and was met with the bounce back theory and the like, people are going to believe whatever they want to believe.

 

He had a BB rate last year that he wasn't able to sustain and his K rate continues to fall, in addition to having average velocity and stuff. It's rather pointless to debate the issue today, but I'll unhappily revisit this topic in 2 years to see what people think then. I say unhappily because I still believe the Wolf signing was bad for the franchise and I've seen nothing to suggest otherwise.

[BrewCrewForever]

I like Gomez, but I also like Cain. I would like to see Gomez get at least another year to see what he can do. If the Brewers trade Hart perhaps Cain plays RF with Gomez in CF next season. We shall see. But I like both guys a lot.

[logan82]

If Gomez doesn't hit by the end of the year, I don't think he ever will. He has already had over 1200 PA and this year is his best OBP yet.(.301 so far) I hope he can put it all together at some point, but if he doesn't by the end of this year, he is no more than a 4th/5th outfielder who should get no more than a start a week. A defensive specialist. It isn't just that stinks it is that he isn't getting better. He needs to show improvement.

[TooLiveBrew]

He's 24, and was rushed to the bigs. I think it's a bit early, even after this season, to say we know anything definitively. I believe he'll be able to hit well enough to justify being an everyday player, given his defensive prowess. I would think that, if anything, the fact that he's actually progressed at the plate this season would be considered a good sign.

[logan82]

Like I said though, he isn't really showing any signs of improvement. He is a little short of enough PA to have a reliable sample(well short on a couple) but his walk rate is still low. All he has really done better this year is hit the ball harder. I have no doubt the skills are there, we have all seen them. but he needs to show some improvement. He also needs to sto trying to bunt for hits.

[TooLiveBrew]

All he has really done better this year is hit the ball harder.

 

Well, that's kind of the biggest thing a batter can do, right? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I know your point is that his plate discipline hasn't really gotten much better, but I just think it's important to keep in mind how young he is, & how rushed he was to MLB. I disagree with your point that he "needs to show improvement" -- I think he clearly has this season, but I will agree he needs to continue to show more.

 

I also agree on needing to give up on the bunting for hits (you & I agree on him basically not bunting at all, though)

[sveumrules]

Obviosuly Gomez needs to show more improvement to be considered an elite MLB CF but at this point he has put up his best triple slash numbers to this point in the bigs and is still only 24 years young.

 

WRITE HIM OFF

[logan82]

Obviously his stats have not stabilized yet but his walk rate is worse than his career walk rate(47.3% vs 4.9%). He needs to put up an OBP better than .315 and preferably .325+. I just want to see improvement, mostly in his OBP, and so far we are not seeing that. A sub .310 is definitely not acceptable.

 

at this point he has put up his best triple slash numbers to this point in the bigs and is still only 24 years young.

 

That isn't much to be happy about when you still have a sub .305 OBP this year and a sub .300 career OBP. Bad is bad. I would accept his poor hitting is we didn't have options in the minors. We do however have Cain and when he gets healthy, Schafer.

 

I wish they would just send Gomez down to get more work. He would have to pass through revocable waivers to do so.

[sveumrules]

I agree that Gomez's line in a vacuum is nothing to get excited about, but you say all you want to see is improvement and at this point his triple slash numbers are all improvements over the best he's ever posted in any single season.

 

If you're unhappy with the degree of improvement than i guess all you can do is give the guy more time.

[logan82]

I really don't consider less than 10 points of OBP improvement. I really couldn't care less how hard he hits the ball if he can't get his OBP over .320. His OBP is now under .300 again.

[Baldkin]

Compared to last year, he's seeing less pitches in the zone and he's swinging at more pitches out of the zone.

 

His plate discipline, if anything, so far this year, has gotten worse.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not sure what to say about Gomez. He is what he is, a raw & unfinished product at the plate with stellar defense equalled by few active CFs. I'm certainly feeling good about getting his highest OPS output of his career, along with him hitting the ball harder.

 

I freely admit this could just be "seems like" bias, but I swear Gomez has two levels of plate discipline. One is early in the count, where he freely whiffs at breaking pitches & fastballs alike, in or out of the zone. But I swear, Two is once he gets two strikes on him. He seems to really have solid discipline with two strikes. Tonight was another example where (iirc) he worked an 0-2 count full & just battled the whole way. I think we're really close, in terms of development, to seeing Carlos Gomez fully materialize. Keep in mind that by close, I mean relative to young player development... as in I doubt we see this progression until late this season or next sometime.

[Fatter than Joey]

In the 10th, Gomez struck out on a pitch high and clearly out of the zone. I would disagree about his discipline with 2 strikes being any better than his discipline with 0 or 1 strikes.

[Hammer]

Small sample alert FTJ. I agree with TLB...he seems like he actually uses the "shorten up w/ 2 strikes" approach.

[Fatter than Joey]

Small sample alert FTJ. I agree with TLB...he seems like he actually uses the "shorten up w/ 2 strikes" approach.

 

Neither TLB or you have provided any sort of evidence to support your statement, so I don't know what you are getting at with your last post, you have not provided any sort of support for your statement small or otherwise -- which is fine, you are certainly are free and able to agree with TLB about his observation, but in reality even if TLB is correct, his data will be too small of a sample as well. Of course TLB states that his observation could be biased, he showed an AB where Gomez in his opinion showed good discipline, I showed one where he showed poor discipline.

 

At the end of the day, I entirely agree with Logan that no matter how thin you slice it, his OBP is way too small.

 

My guess is that Gomez shows better/worse discipline based on the types of pitches he sees rather than the count he is at.

[MarquesJohnson2000]

I heard Hardy is headed for the DL again.