JJ Hardy to Twins for Carlos Gomez

[rluzinski]

You have the time to write 6 paragraphs explaining how a Worls Series caliber offense should be constructed but you can't spend 5 minutes to look up the stats that disprove most of what you wrote?

 

As for Harang, his salary over the next two years:

 

2010: $12.5 mil

2011: $12.75 mil

 

A rough projection for him might be a 4.1 ERA and 190 IP (I'm assuming he won't need another appendectomy). That's about half a win over average. Assuming that $4.8 mil/win will be the going rate for free agents this off season, over the next 2 years, Harang will be paid about what he's worth. He has zero net value, in terms of "projected performance - salary). Even a pessemistic projection of hardy has him being worth more than he'll get paid.

 

Even if the market for starting pitching forces Melvin to overspend for a glaring team need, there's no good reason to make the Reds the beneficiary of the situation, IMO.

[bball123h]

Yankees led all of baseball in HRs, Phillies were first in the NL and 3rd in all of baseball in HRs, The two teams finished 1st and 4th in runs scored, Brewers finished 9th. On the pitching side Phillies finished 7th in runs allowed, the Yankees 14th in runs allowed. My point was very simple pitching and defense can win championships, but ti is not the only way. The Yankees had the best offense in the league, very mediocre defense (Cano, Jeter Posada all mediocre to below average defenders up the middle) and good enough pitching. The Phillies actually were more balanced in terms of being good offense and pitching wise.

I would say a top 3 of either Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettite, or of Lee, Hamels, and Pedro is much better than "good enough". Yes, both the Phillies and the Yankees had excellent offenses. However, that wasn't the only thing that carried them. Their pitching staffs were among the best in baseball, especially their top 3 starters.

[rluzinski]

I think the trade was roughly equal, insofar as the value of Hardy over the next 2 seasons vs. Gomez over the next 4 years. If Melvin is trying to contend while Fielder is still here, however, he went in the wrong direction.

 

As for offense vs. defense/pitching, just use this rough equation:

 

Total Wins = 162 x (Runs Scored)^2 / [(Runs Scored)^2 + (Runs Against)^2]

 

Basically, add 10 runs to your offesense and you gain a win. Subtract 10 runs from your defense and pitching and you gain a win. Math and common sense says they are equal.

 

Now, if you want to get into 3 man rotations in the playoffs, that's a different matter altogether.

[silversurferr]

I like Hardy's defense, but watching Escobar in the field was a revelation; he has crazy range! And Gomez is an adequate replacement for a guy we would not likely have signed. (Why spend 10 million on a fading 37 year old CF on a team that lacks pitching?) If this manuevering allows us to add a number 2 starter, then it is a good trade. Doug Davis and J. Washburn are not good enough. Sign Harden and trade for Harang. Or, sign Harden and trade Gamel and arms for Vazquez.

[Hate those Rodents]

How about sign Davis and Washburn since Melvin probably wants to anyway. Let Bush and Looper walk. Trade McGehee, Braddock, Salome, and Parra for Hamels.

Then you have Hamels, Gallardo, Washburn, Davis, and Mulder starting. You'd have a lineup of Weeks, Escobar, Braun, Fielder, Hart, Gamel, Gomez, Lucroy. Not bad at all.

[Invader3K]

How about sign Davis and Washburn since Melvin probably wants to anyway. Let Bush and Looper walk. Trade McGehee, Braddock, Salome, and Parra for Hamels.

Then you have Hamels, Gallardo, Washburn, Davis, and Mulder starting. You'd have a lineup of Weeks, Escobar, Braun, Fielder, Hart, Gamel, Gomez, Lucroy. Not bad at all.

I like this plan a lot. You'd still have Suppan (I assume) in the bullpen and to use as a 6th starter. I think Philly would be getting a nice package for a pitcher with two years of control left, but we wouldn't be selling off the entire farm either.

[PlayerHader]

We got what for Hardy and you think we'd give up WHAT for Hamels?

 

I like the thought, not the execution.

[istanbultaye]

Trade McGehee, Braddock, Salome, and Parra for Hamels.

I can't imagine that Philadelphia would go for this. I understand they just let Pedro Feliz go, and McGehee would likely be an upgrade at 3rd for them, but they don't seem to be the type of team that would go with a relatively unproven player at 3B, when they are trying to reach their 3rd straight World Series next year. They also have a decent catcher in Ruiz, so I can't imagine they'd go with Salome over him, though he would definitely be valuable depth, if things don't work out. Braddock would help sweeten the deal for them, but the big kicker of this proposition is that there is no way they would downgrade from Hamels to Parra, even with the other decent talent you are suggesting be included.

[vannzee]

I dont have time to go back to the start and find the piece about Harang but was Harang ever confirmed to be offerered?

[fleehaw]

Trade McGehee, Braddock, Salome, and Parra for Hamels.

I can't imagine that Philadelphia would go for this. I understand they just let Pedro Feliz go, and McGehee would likely be an upgrade at 3rd for them, but they don't seem to be the type of team that would go with a relatively unproven player at 3B, when they are trying to reach their 3rd straight World Series next year. They also have a decent catcher in Ruiz, so I can't imagine they'd go with Salome over him, though he would definitely be valuable depth, if things don't work out. Braddock would help sweeten the deal for them, but the big kicker of this proposition is that there is no way they would downgrade from Hamels to Parra, even with the other decent talent you are suggesting be included.

Funny, I wouldn't think Milwaukee would go for this. That is a large haul for 2 years of Hamels. Also, I think it'd be a big mistake to give up on Parra. IMO, you pencil him in at the back end of the rotation and see what he offers this year. If he fulfills his potential, he's exactly what the Brewers need, a good, young, cost-controlled pitcher and if he doesn't, you've given your most advanced pitching prospects (Butler, Rogers, etc.) half a more year to develop. The Brewers need to upgrade the Suppan/Looper part of the rotation rather than replace Parra with Hamels.

 

I do agree with others that McGehee makes more sense than Gamel b/c he bats RH. The Phillies also need bullpen help and if I were them, I'd be asking for Coffey. Throw in a very good prospect and it may be enough. So, it would be McGehee, Coffey, and Rivas/Scarpetta/Braddock/Gindl/Salome...

[Pudster13]

Trade McGehee, Braddock, Salome, and Parra for Hamels.

If any Brewer fans thinks that we could land Cole Hamels for a package that doesn't include both Mat Gamel AND Brett Lawrie....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

....please tell me where you got whatever it is you are smoking?

[Invader3K]

I dont have time to go back to the start and find the piece about Harang but was Harang ever confirmed to be offerered?

Not really, it was just something that someone on here "heard" and everyone ran with it. Haudricourt quoted Melvin as saying that he was offered "relief pitchers but not starters" for Hardy, so I would think that would shoot the Harang rumor down.

[strawbossisevil]

If any Brewer fans thinks that we could land Cole Hamels for a package that doesn't include both Mat Gamel AND Brett Lawrie....

 

....please tell me where you got whatever it is you are smoking?

Can you be more condescending? The idea that the only way our team could get two years of Hamels is by giving away those two players is your opinion. Nothing more.

[Invader3K]

What use would the Phillies really have for Lawrie? Don't they have a pretty good second baseman already? Yeah, that Utley guy, the one signed through 2013...

[bklynbrewcrew]

I dont have time to go back to the start and find the piece about Harang but was Harang ever confirmed to be offerered?

I was told by a friend who works in another organization that Harang was offered for Hardy but that Melvin didnt want to trade JJ inside the division. Since my friend doesnt work for the Brewers or Reds who know for sure if its true but the guy is tuned in.

[MJLiverock]

How about sign Davis and Washburn since Melvin probably wants to anyway. Let Bush and Looper walk. Trade McGehee, Braddock, Salome, and Parra for Hamels.

Then you have Hamels, Gallardo, Washburn, Davis, and Mulder starting. You'd have a lineup of Weeks, Escobar, Braun, Fielder, Hart, Gamel, Gomez, Lucroy. Not bad at all.

Mulder better not be penciled in as a counted on member of the rotation going into this season. I don't understand why people think he is just going magically return to his hey day form with the A's. He is an aging soft tosser who may never pitch in the big leagues again, counting on him to take the ball every 5th day from the beginning of the season is a disaster waiting to happen in my mind. It reminds me of last year when people were talking about the juice to the rotation when Cappy comes back in mid season. He still hasn't pitched above instructional league and likely won't be in the majors as a starter again either, and if he is I would bet against him jumping right back to form again.

 

As bad as the Brewers staff is, I dont' think they can afford to let Bush walk. Out of Davis Washburn Lopper and Mulder he is the only one I would bet on the improve in 2010 vs. 2009 or play to a level near his pay. I am far from infatuated with Bush but his ups and downs at least have some ups.

[silversurferr]

Phillies ain't trading Hamels. However, the Braves will trade Vazquez, as they extened Tim Hudson for 3 more years. Now is the time to make an offer the Braves cannot refuse....Gamel and Hart and some pitching for Vazquez. Bring up Lawrie and put him in right.

[rluzinski]

Hamels is something like a 3.5 ERA 200 IP pitcher. I have that worth something like $19 mil/year. He's getting paid peanuts the next 2 years:

 

10: $6.65 mil

11: $9.5 mil

 

Hamels has around $22 mil of surplus value! That's crazy. Why would the Phillies want to trade that away? they want to win now. I think Melvin would get hung up on if he offered the McGehee/Parra package.

[Hate those Rodents]

Phillies ain't trading Hamels. However, the Braves will trade Vazquez, as they extened Tim Hudson for 3 more years. Now is the time to make an offer the Braves cannot refuse....Gamel and Hart and some pitching for Vazquez. Bring up Lawrie and put him in right.

Depending on the pitcher, and I am guessing you mean a fairly decent prospect, that is far too much to give up for Vazquez.

 

What Doug needs to do if he insists on a trade is find the Vazquez of last winter to trade for. Hardly anybody here or probably on other team's message boards wanted Vazquez last winter due to his age/salary/struggles previous seasons. Let's not "buy high" AGAIN. Let's find the Vazquez of the winter and buy low in a trade. I still like Jeremy Guthrie in this capacity.

[BrewerBrent]

According to MLB Trade rumors Mike Fontenot (haha cubs) has reached super 2 status along with Adam Jones and Micah Owings.

 

I remember reading something about Carlos Gomez possibly being a super two. Does his name not being on this list mean that he indeed is not super 2?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors...ts-super-two-status.html

[PlayerHader]

It might have been added recently, but Carlos Gomez is listed in the names of other super-2 players at the bottom of that article.

[silversurferr]

Enough value shopping. Go and get a solid number 2.

[Tbadder]

There is only "value" shopping. Whether you are the Red Sox or the Brewers, it all comes down to what you can afford.

[MJLiverock]

I think by value shopping he means trying to get $5MM of production for $4MM of salary instead of getting a guy that will actually make a difference. I always fall back to the old, "you get what you pay for" adage. Just because you bought a crappy TV for a cheap price doesn't change that it is still a crappy TV or in this case -> pitcher.

[rluzinski]

Either I'm staring at bad info or another curious trade was proposed. I see Vazquez under contract for only 1 more year, at $11.5 mil. No doubt that he's worth at least $5 mil more than that but give up 6 years of Gamel plus Hart?