JJ Hardy to Twins for Carlos Gomez

[MJLiverock]

As more time has passed and I have let the rants flow against this trade I am willing to give it a shot but I am still very skeptical. Gomez is a young cheap toolsy player but I fear he is just that, toolsy with no actual on the field results. His only hope is to get that OBP north of .350 so he can bat lead off and become what Juan Pierre was early in his Marlins career. It may take a few years for him to reach it at which time LoCain may be the exact same player so maybe one can go in another trade.

 

The hit this team is taking on OBP will have to be made by hoping Weeks, coming off an injury can match Lopez's remarkable Brewer stats at 2B which will still only be a wash there. Catching will have to improve and RF will need improvement. Third base production was decent and I can't expect big improvements there from what McGehee did or what a full basically rookie season of Gamel would be. So I guess I see catching and RF as keys to next year's offense. The team can't afford to become Braun/Fielder and a bunch of slap hitting no OBP guys who fail to get on base, turn the line up over for the 2 big gues to get AB's or drive people in.

 

I still fear what Melvin is going to do with the money for pitching. Trading for pitching seemed the only route since there isn't much on the free agent market but maybe he can take on some team's bad contract or overpaid pitcher for a couple years with this money freed up for 2010 and Suppan's money in 2011. They have just given up one of their trade chips that could have been packaged for more than a faster Tony Gwynn, Jr.

 

The idea that they needed this money to sign Mulder or Davis or Washburn seems pretty weak to me. Mulder is going to sign for next to nothing on a minor league deal somewhere if he plays again at all, I don't know why they need to free up space for someone like him. I have seen Mulder's name on the thread a few times and really don't get the idea he will be much of help. Cheap enough he is worth a risk on a minor league deal but any production would be gravy and not something I would want to count on. I saw the same thing last year; posts about how Capuano was going to come back in mid season and be just old Cappy. It just doesn't work out that way, aging pitchers coming off major are surgery rarely if ever return to their peak performance let alone only 12-18 months after surgery.

 

Davis and Washburn better not be the 2 pitching "gets" that come from this as the team already has enough aging back of the rotation sof tossers.

 

I'll root for Gomez like any one but I really hope he improves his OBP and Macha somehow changes his tune about young players and the running game if he wants to fully utilize Gomez and Escobar. I think the team may as well admit 2010 is a rebuilding year or at least fans should expect that is what it is with all the potential youth in the field, especially if LuCroy or Salome are catching with Escobar, Gomez, Gamel, and a recovering Weeks are in the lineup daily.

[MJLiverock]

Brewj I'm not sure why anyone would or should be bothered by this. A GM has enough skills to understand what is possible via trade and what isn't. With that said, if Melvin doesn't see anyone intriguing on the Tigers why should he even contact them? It's not like there is a written rule stating a GM must contact every other GM before a trade goes through.

I think this stems from the surprise Melvin pulled the trigger so quickly. It was only 2 days after the WS ended so it wasn't like as some said Hardy was shopped to every team and no one wanted him or no one was interested in a package of Hardy with Gamel/McGehee, or Salome/LuCroy, etc. Melvin even admits he didn't even talk to teams who needed a shortstop. People tend to forget in negotiations that the other side has pressure to make a deal as well. Plenty of people have pointed out that since everyone knew Melvin "had" to trade Hardy they weren't going to offer much. That is a poor idea if your team needs a SS. If you are just trying to acquire an extra part cheap, sure throw low ball offers out, but if you are looking to improve your SS position you have to try and get the best player you can before someone else takes your targeted player. I dont' know offhand what other SS are out there but by trying to go as cheap as possible means a team lets someone else get the player they want instead of you, and the next thing you know you are stuck in the same spot or worse.

 

Finally, GMs make bad trades all the time, they aren't infallable so arguing that he's a GM so he made the best deal or this was the only option may or not be the whole reality. (not trying to pick on you here, I saw this a few times in the thread, i.e. GMs know what is best) Especially if he admits he didn't talk to every team and it was only 2 days into the 4 month window of deal making.

[Mass Haas]

Apparently Doug re-acquired Alex Sanchez.

I'm OK with this deal, I'm stumped by those who so unequivocally lump Alcides Escobar in the black hole of this lineup (really, so little faith?), and I'm stunned by the notion that Doug Melvin is in the habit of "rushing" prospects, an opinion of one of the more respected posters in my mind on the board, no less. We had to go back to J.J.'s rookie year to pull up an example, what?

There actually should be a bit more animosity towards a now-Twins shortstop for costing the organization so much in value. I don't know what happened to J.J. on the flight from Maryvale to Milwaukee the first week of April, but I won't miss the 2009 version of him. Otherwise, thanks for the nice run, J.J.

[brewizard]

It's hard to get very excited over such a deal, if you think the Brewer's window of opportunity is over the next 2 years. Escobar and Gomez are going to need some time.

 

That's precisely why this season was so painful and precisely why I ranted off the rails over this whole Hardy thing. Unless Melvin can find some pitching somewhere, something he's not always been great at, the window seems shut.

 

But maybe Weeks will have a good year...

[schmidty]

I see you all talking about signing a free agent for Catcher or starting Lucroy or Salome. But what ever happened to Mike Rivera?

[RobertR]

I don't necessarily fault Melvin for not talking to the Tigers, but by the same token, it displays a lack of creativity. Three team trades aren't that rare when you don't quite match up. Especially since you're so early in the offseason that many teams have holes to fill.

 

Then again, it wouldn't be exactly surprising if a couple of assistants for the Tigers and Brewers talked and couldn't find common ground, before it went any higher.

 

Robert

[LouisEly]

The team, as presently constructed, is totally reliant on Fielder and Braun.

 

Excellent post Robert, and thank you for putting up the splits. The 2B numbers don't surprise me at all because Weeks had an .857 OPS and Lopez had a .855 OPS (and .407 OPB). While Escobar is no lock to be better offensively than Hardy, it's highly unlikely that he will be worse - chances are he will be slightly better. The other thing is that while Hardy is a good defensive SS, Escobar is even better - like someone else said they improved defensively at SS. It's also highly likely that they will be better offensively at C whether that means bringing in someone else or just giving Kendall fewer ABs. A full season of Gamel/McGehee at 3B will likely be better than what they got in 2009.

 

While the difference between Cam and Gomez might not equal one pitcher, what they are trying to do is replace two pitchers - if they replace both Looper and Suppan with guys who average a 4.50 ERA, over 360 innings (average of 180 each - Loop and Sup combined for 355 innings last year) that amounts to 28 fewer earned runs. If they average a 4.00 ERA it amounts to 48 fewer earned runs over 360 innings. By saving $13-15M in this deal combined with dumping Looper and Weathers, that leaves over $20M to spend on pitching, which should get you good enough arms to save over 30 runs. I don't think the difference between Cam and Gomez is much more than 30 runs.

[kramnoj]

I'm not bothered too much by Melvin not calling the Tigers. Sure, in OOTP I can trade a player for the most value and then keeping trading players until I get what I want, but Melvin has to operate in the real world. If the Tigers don't have what Melvin wants, or thought he could easily get, for 2010 than there wasn't going to be a trade. Now Melvin could go all Epstein and try to maneuver a 4 team trade, but that's not his style.

 

I do think that Melvin is under pressure to win this season, and Attanasio may feel the same pressure to keep the fans interest for 2010. The best trade in a vacuum may have been Hardy to the Tigers for some minor league pitchers, but that wasn't going to help the Brewers in 2010.

 

Of course Go-Go may not be likely to be a help in 2010, but Melvin is rolling the dice on this one. Bowden may have been a safer bet as well. but a pitcher with a projected 92 ERA+ isn't likely to be a keystone for the 2010 Brewers. Melvin is gambling that Gomez can break out. It's certainly risky, but sometimes teams have to take risks to get big rewards.

[bklynbrewcrew]

The reason why I say this kills our offense is very simple. By replacing Hardy and cameron with Escobar and Gomez we have given up a ton of slugging as well as the ability to get on base. Im sorry I cant get excited about a CF who gets on base around a .300 clip and a shortstop who very well may do the same. Gomez and Escobar both have very little power as well so the fact is we are a far weaker offense today than we were before this deal was made.

 

With the dearth of quality shortstops out there I find it hard to believe that the best we could do is a player that has no power or no ability to get on base. Yes speed is nice and I do appreciate that Gomez plays a quality CF but the fact remains that he has yet to show any ability whatsoever to draw walks and have an OBP high enough to offset his lack of power. I realize that Hardy had a bad year last year but he has proven over the previous two seasons that he is a quality offensive player at a premium position. Gomez has yet to prove in any way that he is even a decent offensive player. Its November 6th that this trade was made and its as if Melvin had to move JJ immediately. We are desperate for starting pitching and Melvin just traded a good asset for a player that as of now is not a major league quality hitter. Maybe Gomez will prove me wrong and learn to walk and hit for a high average but he has not shown this ability in the major leagues or minors for that matter. Physical tools are great and all but give me a player that has a solid minor league resume at the very least for a player in Hardy that is young and is one year removed from having an all star season. This trade is the very definition of selling low.

[Mr QL]

Reminds me of Kevin Mench. Getting major league players(that's even debatable with Gomez) doesn't help anyone if they're terrible.

[Weirdos19]

Wow. It's November kids. We have a ton of money to spend and everybody is giving up? We have 20 million to spend!!

 

If Gomez hits .250, we don't lose much at all in center. Sure Cam hits more HR's, but if Gomez gets 500AB, he'll have 15 triples. Is there really that much difference?

 

Hardy was a reserve over the last half of the season. He went to the minors for a month. There is no guarantee that he will even hit .240 this year. I like JJ. But we weren't even getting Bowden for him. Pretty sure Bowden was the trade deadline offer.

 

Also, be patient. The price of free agents took a nosedive after January last year. We want to be the team to make an Abreu type deal, not a Bradley type deal. Right?

[Ennder]

I don't think it is fair to evaluate Gomez just on what he has done at the major league level so far without considering his age. His BB/K both improved last year as did his LD%. There are certainly positive indicators in his stats to suggest he is getting better.

 

His out of zone swing % dropped from 37% in 2008 to 30% last year as well which clearly indicates better pitch recognition. This is a player who at least appears to be improving even if it isn't apparent from last years slash stats.

 

It is really going to come down to what they spend the money they saved on. If they pick up like Lackey or something then I'm happy about it. If we pick up Washburn and Davis then I think the team got worse.

[thebruce44]

I'm OK with this deal, I'm stumped by those who so unequivocally lump Alcides Escobar in the black hole of this lineup (really, so little faith?), and I'm stunned by the notion that Doug Melvin is in the habit of "rushing" prospects, an opinion of one of the more respected posters in my mind on the board, no less. We had to go back to J.J.'s rookie year to pull up an example, what?

Yea, Mass. This is what I have been saying. I took offense to the notion that Melvin has a "habit of rushing prospects" and when I questioned it, it seemed as though it wasn't just X who felt this way. I think people are just upset with this trade right now and our taking shots at Melvin that are just way off base in my opinion.

[Ennder]

I think Hardy, Weeks and Fielder were all brought up before they should have been personally. I understand why they did it, but I still think they should have each spent about another half season in the minors.

[molitor fan]

I really am having an issue with people in this thread that are viewing Gomez as a finished product - he is exactly a year older than "phenom" Escobar. At 23 currently, and 24 for all of next season saying the guy is Juan Pierre or worse is incredibly shortsighted. The guy has been regarded as amongst the best defensive centerfielders in the game, and if you look closely at his offensive numbers in his age 22 season, it is easy to project a bump to a .270/.350/400 line. The guy has pop, he is not a slap hitter if you have watched him at all. I loved JJ Hardy as a player and think he will rebound, but the simple truth is that the Gomez/Escobar/Weeks triad will provide the most range in baseball this year. If Weeks can harness his skills this year as a second baseman, the Brewers will also have the best overall defense in the middle of the diamond this year. I want Gamel in left, McGahee at third and Braun in right with a lineup of Gomez/McGahee/Braun/Fielder/Weeks/Gamel/Escobar/LuCroy (though trading for the Colorado catcher that started in the Worlds would be my first choice).

 

I would love to go all out for Lackey and make a reasonable offer for a second tier non-Looper and let the chips fall where they may.

[brains and braun]

I agree that it's too early to label Gomez, but Melvin's comments about speed taking longer to develop reminded me too much of the Dave Krynzel situation.

[ryanbraun75]

Carlos Gomez as some of you might have forgotten was really the center piece in the Johann Santana deal. He obviously has a lot of talent that just hasn't broken out yet. Remember he is a 23 year old player and i think that his speed and defense will really help this team next year and will allow us to have a future in center field along with being very cheap. If he breaks out this year great if not he will still provide us with 10 + triples, great defense, and a speed threat on the bases. But i think he will break out this year with a higher average than in the past and really help this team. He's also coming into the national league which would probably help any young hitter. An earlier post suggested that a team with escobar, gomez and possibly Lucroy/Salome is a younger club well its also a much more talented club that can last for the long hall. If we can aquire a few good starters i really do see this team contending

 

Rickie Weeks

Carlos Gomez

Ryan Braun

Prince Fielder

Corey Hart

Alcides Escobar

Jonothon Lucroy

Casey McGehee

 

That is a really solid lineup.. Much better than this years with the potential to sign/trade for an established starter or 2. i like this trade i think it will benifit this year

[southpaw121505]

The way I see it is that if we can justify putting Kendall out there everyday I can easily justify putting a 24 year old Gomez in the 8 hole considering his great D and the fact that he has some upside still offensively based off of age alone. People are acting like the guy is Hardy's age, he's still very raw. Although his track record in the bigs pretty much sucks offensively, he's too talented and young for me to decide there's no way he improves.

 

The key to me is not having two Kendall's. We need a catcher to bridge the offensive gap from Cam to Gomez. If Gomez + new catcher can meet or surpass Cameron and Kendall, plus the financial savings, then I'm good with this move. I am terrified at the thought of Kendall back though.

 

I'm not going to sit and argue about whether DM should have gotten more or gotten pitching for Hardy because it's done, none of us have a better idea or feel for what was offered or available. Can we at least wait and see what else happens with this new flexibility. What about this scenario. What could we sign Olivo for? No idea but I'm sure it would be for less than the savings we got from Hardy and Cam. So if we could sign him and still have a little money left over we'd have this:

 

7 Olivo 781 ops

8 Gomez 623 ops

1404 combined ops, Olivio may come down next year but I'd put money on Gomez being better than 623 based on age and NL switch alone.

 

vs

 

7 Cameron 795

8 Kendall 636

1431 combined, and Cam and Kendall are not getting any younger.

 

We'd get younger, same if not better defensively, our one black hole guy would at least be young, cheap and super toolsy instead of...Kendall. Plus whatever financial savings after Olivio's money. We'd still have one of Hart, McGehee and Gamel to trade for pitching plus one of Salome and Lucroy while leaving the other at AAA. Let's see what else happens before we deem this off season and 2010 season and epic fail.

[ELCABALLO45]

Juan Pierre? Reeeally?

 

Well first off, Gomez is alot better defensivly then Juan Pierre. Juan Pierre is/was a slap hitter. Gomez is not a slap hitter. This guy has some pop in his bat. Being six four helps but he does have undeveloped power.

 

I have no idea why so many people are so down on this kid before he even gets a chance to play. Again, he's 23 years old. He hasn't got consistent playing time since the begining of 08. The twins never sent him to the minors because they were afraid to send the "prize" of the Johan deal down. The Twins completlly botched the development of this kid. I think Brewer fans should know first hand what its like to watch a young top prospect sit on the bench and compelty ruin that players confidence and season. (Gamel).

 

Bill James said about Gomez last year that, is that he was worth as many total runs as alot of "all star caliber" players. That was with a .259 batting avg. and no walks and limit power numbers. Play him everyday and you have at worst a avg centerfielder.

 

He needs to play everyday. Give him a chance and you will see how good of a player he can be. He was a huge fan fav in Minnesota, his energy and love for the game was unmatched. I really belive everyone is going to love the guy. You just need to give him a chance.

[Ennder]

Olivo is probably the worst defensive C in baseball so I don't think we go for him. He really does fit better in the AL where he can DH from time to time.

[Team Canada]

I really am having an issue with people in this thread that are viewing Gomez as a finished product - he is exactly a year older than "phenom" Escobar. At 23 currently, and 24 for all of next season saying the guy is Juan Pierre or worse is incredibly shortsighted. The guy has been regarded as amongst the best defensive centerfielders in the game, and if you look closely at his offensive numbers in his age 22 season, it is easy to project a bump to a .270/.350/400 line. The guy has pop, he is not a slap hitter if you have watched him at all. I loved JJ Hardy as a player and think he will rebound, but the simple truth is that the Gomez/Escobar/Weeks triad will provide the most range in baseball this year. If Weeks can harness his skills this year as a second baseman, the Brewers will also have the best overall defense in the middle of the diamond this year. I want Gamel in left, McGahee at third and Braun in right with a lineup of Gomez/McGahee/Braun/Fielder/Weeks/Gamel/Escobar/LuCroy (though trading for the Colorado catcher that started in the Worlds would be my first choice).

 

I would love to go all out for Lackey and make a reasonable offer for a second tier non-Looper and let the chips fall where they may.

I think this is basically where I am, too. If Gomez doesn't improve, then clearly it's a bad move by Doug. But I think of it this way:

 

Scenario 1: Hardy bounces back, Gomez never improves

Scenario 2: Hardy stays bad or average, Gomez never improves

Scenario 3: Hardy bounces back, Gomez improves as Doug bets he will

Scenario 4: Hardy stays bad or average, Gomez improves as Doug bets he will

 

Yeah it's an oversimplification, but only one of those scenarios ends poorly for the Brewers. If Hardy doesn't bounce back, then I can't imagine doing better than this, and I don't see the point in debating who else he could have gotten, because there's no way we can know all of the options.

At the same time, I'm not sure you can really include Cameron in this deal, because it's likely that Gerut + platoon partner would do no worse (or better) than Gomez next year, so you could've traded Hardy, let Cameron go, and still have all that cash to spread around (plus whatever player you got back in the alternate universe Hardy trade).

I also think that this means there's no way Kendall can be back next year, and the comments from Doug so far indicate he's leaning that directly too.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. I just hope Looper is gone..

[clancyphile]

Here's one thought for the lineup:

ss: Escobar

2b: Weeks

lf: Braun

1b: Fielder

rf: Hart

3b: Gamel/McGehee

c: Lucroy/Salome

cf: Gomez/Gerut

Pitcher

[rluzinski]

If Gomez hits .250, we don't lose much at all in center. Sure Cam hits more HR's, but if Gomez gets 500AB, he'll have 15 triples. Is there really that much difference?

 

Not much difference? 15 triples? Seriously? The difference between Cam and Gomez offensively is very large.

[Hate those Rodents]

Cameron + Hardy = Escobar + Gomez+ 14 million

 

With that equation in mind, whether you agree with the equation or not, I don't understand why people are analyzing this trade in absolute at this moment. Once the 14 million is spent, we can make an initial analysis (which will still be before either player has played one game in the opposite uniform).

[trwi7]

If Gomez hits .250, we don't lose much at all in center. Sure Cam hits more HR's, but if Gomez gets 500AB, he'll have 15 triples. Is there really that much difference?

Umm, Gomez is a career .246 hitter (close enough to .250) and has 12 triples in 1,017 career at bats. So no, he won't have 15 triples in 500 at bats. And yes, there is a huge difference in the offense of Cameron and Gomez.