JJ Hardy to Twins for Carlos Gomez

[TooLiveBrew]

Well, he's rushing Escobar now, and with defense in mind Weeks was rushed as well. And given Melvin's recent comments... going with Lucroy as the MLB starter fresh out of AA would be rushing a player, too.

[thebruce44]

Hardy is not worth an epically bad trade. If anything, it may be a loss like the Doug Davis deal tops. Quite frankly, I am surprised about the reaction on this site. It sounds more the MJS comments section after a Haudricourt article when fans overreact.

We didn't just lose Hardy in this deal, we also lost Cameron. We lost 2 players that were 14.8 Wins Above Replacement the last 2 years. Thats huge.

This goes back to the WAR discussion we had a couple of days ago, but people really seem to cherry pick stats like WAR sometimes to make it look how they want. More than half of Cam's WAR came from fielding the last two years. Before that, he had 4 years that average to his fielding being below replacement level according to WAR. What does that mean? Hell if I know, but I wouldn't be using it to make an argument unless I could explain why his numbers fluctuate so much. Especially when his fielding should be in decline with his age.

 

Now consider we lost 2 years of Hardy and 2 years of Cam going forward for 5 years of Escobar, 3 years of Gomez, and probably $28 mil over those 2 years (isn't that about 5 wins worth of money a year?). Can Melvin come out on top there? Again, I don't know. But I wouldn't definitively slam him, say we are going into rebuilding, or call for his job as others have.

[Oldcity]

Hardy is not worth an epically bad trade. If anything, it may be a loss like the Doug Davis deal tops. Quite frankly, I am surprised about the reaction on this site. It sounds more the MJS comments section after a Haudricourt article when fans overreact.

We didn't just lose Hardy in this deal, we also lost Cameron. We lost 2 players that were 14.8 Wins Above Replacement the last 2 years. Thats huge.

 

Escobar will be more valuable than Hardy was last year. The only thing the Brewers are losing in this deal is Cameron's offense from centerfield, but they're getting over ten million dollars for losing that. Let's see what they do with it first.

[thebruce44]

Well, he's rushing Escobar now, and with defense in mind Weeks was rushed as well. And given Melvin's recent comments... going with Lucroy as the MLB starter fresh out of AA would be rushing a player, too.

Escobar sure looked ready to contribute to me at the end of last year.

 

Weeks? Come on, he hit his way on when we had Spivey. Defense be damned (out motto at the time) he was OPSing 1.090 in Nashville when he came up.

 

I will believe Lucroy when I see it, but I agree...that may be rushing him.

[battlekow]

New ZiPS projections:

 

Hardy: .258/.314/.419 (94 OPS+)

Gomez: .250/.308/.369 (79 OPS+)

[Weirdos19]

Salome before Lucroy, IMO. Lucroy only hit .267 in AA.

 

Both are better options than Kendall. Much cheaper too.

[igor67]

A number of thoughts:

Carlos Gomez: Melvin getting his fix of speed develops late. Sorry though Doug whom has that theory worked for Podsednik?

14 million saved: the most plausible idea suggested so far for spending this windfall on pitching now that we have little in the way of trading chips has been Harang. If we pick up Harang for a song and his salary my attitude will improve, but at this point I'm not seeing where the money is going to be all that useful with one of our 2 major trading chips gone.

 

We have a serious line-up issue now. Not in a sky is falling kind of way, but can you really justify running out 3 gigantic question marks in Gomex, LuCroy, and Escobar? A largely veteran line-up you can plug LuCroy and Escobar in make all the right public statements to take the pressure off and then wait to see them hit reasonable projections. And in those cases reasonable projections could easily be a wash with the guys they are replacing. Now though you need to count on those spots improving to balance the blackhole that is Gomez.

[Invader3K]

Hardy is not worth an epically bad trade. If anything, it may be a loss like the Doug Davis deal tops. Quite frankly, I am surprised about the reaction on this site. It sounds more the MJS comments section after a Haudricourt article when fans overreact.

We didn't just lose Hardy in this deal, we also lost Cameron. We lost 2 players that were 14.8 Wins Above Replacement the last 2 years. Thats huge.

Yeah, but what would they do next year? I can't believe how attached some are on this site to Cameron and Hardy. Hardy was a very good player at times, but pretty bad and disappointing last year. What's to say he won't be as bad next year? Cameron is aging, and IMHO, lost a step last year. What's to say he won't continue to decline next year? Bottom line is you can't draw a fair comparison because Escobar and Gomez both do not have anywhere near enough MLB playing time to draw an accurate ivew.

[TooLiveBrew]

Salome before Lucroy, IMO. Lucroy only hit .267 in AA.

 

Both are better options than Kendall. Much cheaper too.

I was just going off Melvin's recent comments on Lucroy (can be found in the Salome/Lucroy thread in the minors forum). I'd have guessed that Salome was ahead of Lucroy as well, but it seems the Brewers think Lucroy's D is ready, and his success at the plate in the AFL seems to have the front office sold on him. I really don't know what to make of this... I still think the Brewers are going to use Salome to help bring back pitching this winter.

 

 

EDIT: Come to think of it, the front office touting Lucroy so highly could just be an attempt to drive up his trade value as well. Either way, imo one of Lucroy & Salome will be shipped out this offseason.

[silversurferr]

This trade gives us better D up the middle: Escobar has much more range than Hardy, and Gomez has more range than Cameron. We can add another pitcher with the freed cash. Most are thinking free agent pitcher, but I think it is more likely this trade means Gamel will be dished for an expensive pitcher. Even though Hardy will do well in Minnesota; possibly star, he had little current value. And there are not any, cheap center fielders available. The only thing that does not fit is Macha; he needs to run Escobar and Gomez.

[TooLiveBrew]

As long as neither of them bats in the top of the lineup, I could care less what Macha does with the running game.

[silversurferr]

Cheez...Knock it off with the WAR stuff, already! Who cares what Hardy fluked out two years ago. He sucked bad last year. Three years ago everyone was worried he was injury prone. WAR? We more than replaced Cameron's defense (which I always thought was slightly overrated), and add big speed and some potential. Cameron was not going to get better. In fact, most players his age rapidly decline. WAR? Replace Cameron's nominally worthless homers with a starter that can pitch. That will give us 10 WAR over Narveson, Suppan, kerosene crew rotation we had last year. Worst ERA in the NL!!!!

[trwi7]

According to the same source, Milwaukee wanted either starter Clay Buchholz or reliever Daniel Bard for Hardy. The Sox were not willing to offer either pitcher. Milwaukee was not interested in righthander Michael Bowden, whom the Sox would have been willing to part with, and the Sox did not have a center field prospect who could match Gomez's skill set.

Link

 

Even though I'm not a huge fan of Bowden, I would've taken him over Gomez.

[Invader3K]

I find it hard to believe he wouldn't have taken Bowden. Then again Bowden is probably only hyped at all because he is in the Red Sox organization.

[Mr QL]

According to the same source, Milwaukee wanted either starter Clay Buchholz or reliever Daniel Bard for Hardy. The Sox were not willing to offer either pitcher. Milwaukee was not interested in righthander Michael Bowden, whom the Sox would have been willing to part with, and the Sox did not have a center field prospect who could match Gomez's skill set.

Link

 

Even though I'm not a huge fan of Bowden, I would've taken him over Gomez.

So we actually could of gotten a pitcher. Ugh.

[brewmann04]

I would hope Melvin does spend the extra money on arms like Mulder and Washburn maybe Harden. I wonder if Melvin looking at a package of Salome and Gamel for a quality Pitcher.

[wibadgers23]

Not that we were extremely old or anything, but you subtract Kendall, Cameron, and Hardy and add Gomez, Lucroy, and Escobar to the everday line-up and we are suddenly a very young team. That being said, I would still be somewhat shocked if Lucroy (or Salome) is our starting catcher to begin the season.

[reillymcshane]

Not that we were extremely old or anything, but you subtract Kendall, Cameron, and Hardy and add Gomez, Lucroy, and Escobar to the everday line-up and we are suddenly a very young team. That being said, I would still be somewhat shocked if Lucroy (or Salome) is our starting catcher to begin the season.

Melvin said that they are very seriously considering giving Lucroy the chance to win the catching job next year - talked about in the minor league forum:

 

http://brewersfandemonium...u.com?topic=20147?page=6

[bobskube]

Escobar will be more valuable than Hardy was last year. The only thing the Brewers are losing in this deal is Cameron's offense from centerfield, but they're getting over ten million dollars for losing that. Let's see what they do with it first.

Hallelujah!

[bobskube]

Yeah, but what would they do next year? I can't believe how attached some are on this site to Cameron and Hardy. Hardy was a very good player at times, but pretty bad and disappointing last year. What's to say he won't be as bad next year? Cameron is aging, and IMHO, lost a step last year. What's to say he won't continue to decline next year? Bottom line is you can't draw a fair comparison because Escobar and Gomez both do not have anywhere near enough MLB playing time to draw an accurate ivew.

Invader, again on the same page as you. Seems like last year all over again, huh? It is fun being the minority sometimes, isn't it?

[bobskube]

I would hope Melvin does spend the extra money on arms like Mulder and Washburn maybe Harden. I wonder if Melvin looking at a package of Salome and Gamel for a quality Pitcher.

I'll pass on them all. I think the Brewers are thinking bigger splash. We will see.

[Ennder]

Hardy is not worth an epically bad trade. If anything, it may be a loss like the Doug Davis deal tops

 

Davis was a mediocre SP, Hardy is a good SS. This comment makes no sense to me. Davis was a shrug, we can replace you relatively easily type deal, Hardy is harder to replace in general imo.

 

Of course my opinion of Davis is probably much lower than yours, he is basically a Looper or Suppan to me. A bad pitcher who had a little luck with ERA a few times.

[brewmann04]

well i am still hoping for a blockbuster like King felix

[LouisEly]

JJ isn't going to fetch much. HE WAS SENT TO THE MINORS LAST YEAR! Teams know that he has no value for the Brewers so why would anyone give up anything.

 

Bingo!

 

I guess this saves 15 million if it means that Cameron isnt back next year. That has to be worth something.

 

Bingo #2! Add in dumping Looper, Weathers, and Kendall and it is more like $26M. Add in Suppan and Hall after 2010 and it is $46M. That should buy you Prince plus two pitchers.

 

If Jack had found us some pitching prospects maybe we would have been happy to get a bag of balls for a .200 hitting shortstop who makes $4 million.

 

Bingo #3!

 

I could see a Twins fan saying that about Hardy, except he actually was in the minors last year. Lets not forget, we didnt trade Cal Ripken, Jr. here.

 

RyDogg, you and Invader are on a roll in this thread.

 

So we're not resigning Cameron, and we're planning to have somewhere between two and four automatic outs in the batting order next year?

 

Our ability to score runs has just taken a huge hit.

 

Even with the God-awful offensive performances of Hardy, Kendall, and Hall, and the very mediocre performance of Hart the Brewers were 3rd in the NL in runs scored. The difference between Cam and Gomez offensively isn't going to make that much difference. Now they have Gamel/McGehee instead of Hall and it's likely that they'll get more than 37 games from Weeks. That will make up for a lot of the runs lost going from Cam to Gomez, and with the money saved the pitching should be better.

 

Re: Lorenzo Cain

 

Cain was hurt this year and did not pick up where he left off despite a very similar number of plate appearances at AA in 2009 as 2008. He is at least a year and a half away from the majors and needs to re-prove he can handle AA or above pitching.

 

Maybe he packages Gamel and Salome for an established starter who's making a decent amount of money?

 

That's my dark horse in this - Gamel, Salome, Peralta, and Rivas for Josh Johnson. Then buck up for Johnson.

[trwi7]

He is at least a year and a half away from the majors and needs to re-prove he can handle AA or above pitching.

I feel the same way about Gomez.