JJ Hardy to Twins for Carlos Gomez

[nate82]

Really?

 

A 2.87 ERa, 1.03 whip 238 Ks and BAA of .223 isn't good?

The Braves are looking to dump one of those three and Vazquez is the only one that fits without the Braves having to take on the majority of the salary owed to the player. Plus that was a career year for Vazquez and I doubt he will repeat that again especially since he will be 33 years old entering the 2010 season and will be 34 years old by the end of the season. Vazquez is not going to garner much in a trade beyond a Hart plus package. Unless the Braves will be willing to take on more salary which they are not likely to do.

[davemakovec]

For the record, I was stunned when my friend texted me with this news, and thought it was a horrible trade.

 

I still think it's a horrible trade, but I'm willing to give it a shot.

 

Realistically, Gomez is not going to start hitting .270 or putting up a .340+ OBP this year. Maybe next year, or the year after. He is very young, with tremendous defense and a little bit of upside with the bat. I'll give him a shot. As for the comparison to Michael Bourn and how he "figured it out," Bourn "figured it out" to the tune of a 97 OPS+. That is not exactly stellar.

 

As for Rickie Weeks, he will not be great in 2010. A wrist injury is the worst thing to happen to a hitter, particularly one who depends so much on his hand speed. Look at guys like Derrek Lee or David Ortiz who suffered wrist injuries - these things take a season of hitting with the power of, well, Carlos Gomez before they start pounding the ball again. Weeks may be good next year, but I would not expect a full season of his 2009 performance.

 

The big question in this deal (after Gomez's development) is how this will help them get pitching. $14m will not get John Lackey, and even if it did, that is only one starting pitcher. I expect something more along the lines of trading Gamel for a #4 with #2-3 upside (like a guy rumored for Hardy: Brandon Morrow), signing Washburn, and taking a flyer on a broken-down heap like Mulder.

 

Anyway, I hope Gomez reaches some of that potential, and at least I get a chance to see one of my favorite (now former) Brewers more often since I moved in 2008 from Madison to the Twin Cities. I wonder what number Joe Mauer will wear now that Hardy is going to take over #7?

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

With $14mm off the books now for 2010 and an additional $20mm off in 2011, this could open up some pitchers that otherwise may not have been available to us. We could offer some backend loaded 2-3 year deals instead one year plus an option types. It could help avoid guys like Looper (who I hope we don't resign), but raises the risk of another Suppan-like contract if it doesn't work out.

[Ennder]

Bourn didn't really figure it out, he played hurt most of 2008 and it hurt his stats.

 

I think Gomez will have an OBP over .300 in 2010. His plate discipline did improve last year going from 1 K per 4.23 PA to 1 per 4.84 PA. His BB rate went from 1 per 24.6 to 1 per 15.9. That shows some solid progression. The real problem for him last year was the .288 BABIP which isn't what you would expect from a speedy groundball hitter at all. Not to mention he is moving to the easier league. If he puts up defense like he has so far and can keep that plate discipline and hit even .260 he is going to be a 2 or 2.5 WAR player.

 

I still don't like the trade all that much but I don't think it is terrible either.

[apirk]

It would take a lot more then an OF who should be platooned to get any solid SP in this league. HArt doesn't even come close in value of a #2 or #3 SP let alone someone who statistically was a top pitcher last year. You are COMPLETELY overvaluing Hart but that usually happens with all Brewers here which is why people get pissed when the Brewers don't get what fans feel someone's value is because it is nowhere near what the actual value is.

[Oldcity]

Yeah... No way the Brewers could get Vazquez with Corey Hart as the centerpiece.

[sheetswannabe]

Hart for Halladay.

[jerichoholicninja]

How about we spend some of that money on Brett Myers. He will not be coming back to Philly and if I had to guess a contract he'd be looking in the 6-8 million area. Numbers last year weren't great but he was hurt. He could be looking for a one year deal to prove himself.

[trwi7]

The real problem for him last year was the .288 BABIP which isn't what you would expect from a speedy groundball hitter at all.

The real problem is he doesn't have a lot of power and has a groundball rate about the league average.

[The Truth]

X ellence wrote:

 

Weeks had 2 great seasons in the minors, Gomez never had a good season in the minors. Sure he has tools, but its a real stretch to think he's on the verge of a breakout.

In 2005 at age 19 Gomez had 64 stolen bases and a .331 OBP while batting .275 in A ball

the next year in AA ball he had 41 stolen bases with a .350 OBP (and a .773 OPS)

the following year in AAA ball he had a .355 OBP

 

Those aren't good seasons for one of the best defensive outfielders? Weeks was incredible offensively in the minors but relatively brutal in the field by most accounts

[RobertR]

I'm stunned by this trade. I think Gomez is flat out terrible offensively. Yeah, his defense is valuable, but he's a long ways below replacement level offensively and it will take a lot of improvement just to get there. And it's by no means certain he will given his underlying numbers and poor plate discipline.

 

Maybe it was the best the Brewers could do for J. J. Hardy. But, I hardly think that two days after the World Series is the time to decide that they couldn't do any better. That's folding early.

 

Robert

[thebruce44]

He mentioned that they have been extremely impressed with Lucroy and see him as a possible option for the MLB roster next year, citing guys like Russel Martin who jumped to "the bigs" without stints in AAA. So all the people who are convinced he will bring Kendall back and have half a lineup full of weak hitters should maybe take some pause

This is a bad idea. Lucroy is getting way too much hype for his AFL performance. If you curve his stats for league effect, he's been very average. He was only a little above average in AA. He needs AAA. However, Melvin had a bad habit of rushing prospects.

You really seem to have it in for Melvin lately. Besides Hardy, who was ready defensively for an MLB team with no playoff chance, who exactly did he rush?

[Mr QL]

Doesn't Carlos Gomez have character and work ethic questions?

[TooLiveBrew]

I am not a fan of this trade at all. Downgrading from Cameron to Gomez for 2010 is a bad move. Not using Hardy as part of a package to get pitching is a bad move. Sure, maybe Gomez can 'be somebody' down the road, but that's a strange move to make for a man whose job is on the line this coming season.

 

Not only is the centerfield position being severely downgraded, but Cameron will likely be replaced by a pitcher who won't contribute as many wins to the club as he will.

Yeah, I just can't find a way to be happy about this move. I mean, we just traded a legit MLB SS for a faster version of Lo Cain... and just like Lorenzo, Gomez isn't ready to be a big-league hitter.

 

I suspect well see Gomez and Gerut in CF this year.

I think you're right. Unfortunately, there were many cheaper ways to find the RHB side of a CF platoon.

 

I agree with the following sentiments: Terrible trade; shouldn't have dealt Hardy at all if this is the best they could get in return; this is the beginning of the end for Melvin and the current window of success for the Brewers.

I agree with the preceding quote.

 

Now he will probably unload Gamel for an average starter.

This is my #1 fear right now. I worry that Gamel will be shipped off for a SP that isn't all that special, and that the money saved will be used on more blah pitchers.

[bobskube]

First of all, it is nice to be back guys. I look forward to many more moves this offseason.

 

I, for one, like this move. Gomez may not be great, but he fills a need and will play some good center and be a solid 8 hitter next season and maybe a number #1 before season is over. I think the main problem with this move is that hardy should have been traded last year for more. Oh well.

 

I can't wait to see Hardy fall into "Billy Hall Mode." His swing is bad and looks to yank everything and leaves the outside of the plate vulnerable. Anyone who pitches him inside is stupid. Just keep it away. He was a fan fave like Hall who really is not that good. Melvin got what he could. MilBrew fans far overvalue this guy and undervalue guys like Weeks. I hope Corey Hart is next. Another overrated guy...

[NievesNoNO]

Maybe it was the best the Brewers could do for J. J. Hardy. But, I hardly think that two days after the World Series is the time to decide that they couldn't do any better. That's folding early.

I think it's less of a case of folding early and more of a case to move forward quickly to be more aggresive this off-season. (I hope at least) Could've Doug got more later in the off-season? Maybe, but he also could've got stuck waiting too long and still not getting a quality pitcher back while not clearing salary to make a push for a free agent pitcher. Let's face it, the longer they held on to JJ the less he would command in return. The trade by itself favors Minnesota right now pretty heavily, but the financial flexability it gives the Brewers early in the off-season can't be overlooked. I think this is just the first move in a fairly active off-season for the Crew. If nothing else it kept my baseball juices flowing right into the off-season. I can't wait to see what comes next.

[TooLiveBrew]

You really seem to have it in for Melvin lately. Besides Hardy, who was ready defensively for an MLB team with no playoff chance, who exactly did he rush?

The point on Hardy is that you don't completely waste his service time just because his glove was ready. It was a bad decision that helped create the problem that came up this season & offseason. His bat wasn't ready, and there was no reason to burn his service time.

[twobrewers]

I haven't read the entire thread - but after going through about 8 pages, it seems no one has mentioned that the Brewers might just be positioning themselves for 2011.

 

I doubted they would be able to contend in 2010 with a young Escobar, Gamel and Salome and no pitching prospects ready to help.

 

In 2011, they will still have Prince, Braun and Yo. They will also have a year of experience for Gamel, Escobar, Salome and Gomez. They will also have a bunch of pitching prospects knocking on the door in Rogers, Braddock, Butler, Arnett and more. I, for one, never saw the point of spending $10M on Cameron to have a shot at the playoffs - but no realistic shot at the World Series.

 

However, if they trade Prince Fielder before 2011 - this trade will go down as epically horrible.

[Flood Pants]

When I told my wife that Hardy had been traded, her reaction was "I can't believe it! Is Gomez even cute?"

 

Sad, this trade really does hurt on every possible level.

[trwi7]

be a solid 8 hitter next season and maybe a number #1 before season is over.

Gomez has a long way to go before he can be considered a solid hitter anywhere in the lineup.

[bobskube]

However, if they trade Prince Fielder before 2011 - this trade will go down as epically horrible.

Hardy is not worth an epically bad trade. If anything, it may be a loss like the Doug Davis deal tops. Quite frankly, I am surprised about the reaction on this site. It sounds more the MJS comments section after a Haudricourt article when fans overreact. Let's see where the rest of the chips fall before we jump off the ship.

[The Truth]

I, for one, never saw the point of spending $10M on Cameron to have a shot at the playoffs - but no realistic shot at the World Series.

I absolutely agree with that in terms of 2009. In 2008 they had a shot at the World Series if Sheets, CC and Yo were all healthy and pitching great. I'd argue that CC, Sheets and Yo all in top form and healthy is a better trio than what the Yankees had in CC, Burnett, and Pettitte this year...

 

imho, the Brewers abused Sheets much of his early career (especially by rushing him to the Majors) and paid the heaviest of prices in the 2008 post-season

 

But yes, Cameron was a complete waste of salary cap $$$ in 2009 for a team that had zero World Series chances

[bobskube]

be a solid 8 hitter next season and maybe a number #1 before season is over.

Gomez has a long way to go before he can be considered a solid hitter anywhere in the lineup.

We will see. I may be wrong about Gomez but let's see what happens to the "beloved" JJ.

[Never Outhustled]

Hardy is not worth an epically bad trade. If anything, it may be a loss like the Doug Davis deal tops. Quite frankly, I am surprised about the reaction on this site. It sounds more the MJS comments section after a Haudricourt article when fans overreact.

We didn't just lose Hardy in this deal, we also lost Cameron. We lost 2 players that were 14.8 Wins Above Replacement the last 2 years. Thats huge.

[thebruce44]

You really seem to have it in for Melvin lately. Besides Hardy, who was ready defensively for an MLB team with no playoff chance, who exactly did he rush?

The point on Hardy is that you don't completely waste his service time just because his glove was ready. It was a bad decision that helped create the problem that came up this season & offseason. His bat wasn't ready, and there was no reason to burn his service time.

I competely understand that and wasn't disagreeing with it at all in my post. How rushing Hardy makes it a habit though is beyond me unless you just have beef with Melvin.