JJ Hardy to Twins for Carlos Gomez

[thebruce44]

Gomez' UZR/150 10.0. Cameron's UZR/150 10.3. So no.

 

You know thats not the best way to evaluate their defense at this point.

[Oldcity]

I'm not the biggest fan of UZR for outfielders because there are major flaws with how it's calculated. I'll say it was probably a bit much for me to say Gomez was definitively better than Cameron. They were comparable, but like you said Gomez will be better next season in all likelihood.

[olliegjw]

People. please understand that the Brewers were NOT going to get a pitcher worth a hill of beans for JJ Hardy. There isnt a market for a guy who potentially could be non-tendered. The ONLY thing that could be done is to run him out there for us next year and hope he isnt as bad as he was this year.

...then that's what you do.

Worked well doing that with Bill Hall in 2009.

[Mr QL]

What will you guys think about this trade if JJ bounces back to his 07/08 numbers?

[olliegjw]

What will you guys think about this trade if JJ bounces back to his 07/08 numbers?

What will you think if JJ replicates his 09 numbers?

[owbc]

The best pitching we could have gotten for a .230 hitter like Hardy is a middle reliever.

 

I am sick and tired of us signing mediocre starting pitching like Suppan and Looper. If dumping salary now gets us high quality pitching later, then this is a great strategy.

[Oldcity]

It makes perfect sense if you consider the fact that we had a top 5 offense with

I didn't expect to get a pitcher that would help us this year for JJ, but I expected to get at least a good player.

 

Why, exactly? The Brewers had no leverage with Hardy whatsoever. You can argue whether it's reasonable for him to bounce back, but that's really a moot point. Teams knew the Brewers were going to trade Hardy, so they had the Brewers over a barrel. There was no reason for someone to give up a better player than Gomez to get a guy who was so bad that he warranted a demotion to the minors last season.

[ELCABALLO45]

It makes perfect sense if you consider the fact that we had a top 5 offense with 3 black holes in the lineup last year (JJ, Kendall, Hart when he was off and Cam when he was off). If we can replace Kendall with anything, we have a similar offense as we have another top 5 offense, only an extra 14 mil and a lot of upside in those black holes offensivly and defensivly.

 

No, it doesn't. Yes we were a top 5 offense this year, but we also had career years from Fielder, Braun, and McGehee. Those guys should be expected to get at least a little worse to go along with replacing 2 guys with expected worse offense and a minimal defensive upgrade. That makes our offense worse overall.

 

I didn't expect to get a pitcher that would help us this year for JJ, but I expected to get at least a good player.

Prince's OPS in 2009 was 1.014, in 07 it was 1.013. He's also 25.

 

Braun's 2007 was also better then his year this year.

 

To say they both had their "career years" at the age of 25 is kind of foolish.

[logan82]

Fanhouse reaction to the trade... http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2009/11/06/j-j-hardy-traded-for-carlos-gomez/

 

Still, he's only going to be 24 on Opening Day, 2010, and the Brewers can plug him into center field in place of most-likely-departing Mike Cameron. Gomez makes much more sense for the Brewers than Cameron anyway, considering his age and the fact that the Brewers already have enough power. They need table-setters. If Gomez can find a way to work his OBP up to the .350 (or more) range, he'll be a very valuable cog in the Milwaukee lineup.

Any analysis that concludes a team has "enough" of something is absolute garbage, IMO

I like the "They need table setters" line just after that. I really like refering to a guy with a career sub .300 OBP as a table setter.

[Mr QL]

What will you guys think about this trade if JJ bounces back to his 07/08 numbers?

What will you think if JJ replicates his 09 numbers?

that it was a lateral at best trade? I don't know if I'd even start Gomez over Gerut who I also wasn't a fan of.

[sheethead]

But .229/.287/.337 at a more offensive position is worth getting excited about!

 

Since when is CF a more offensive position than SS? Do you think Escobar is going to ever put up something less than .229/.287/.337? I would be NO on that one.

[logan82]

ELCABALLO45 wrote:

Braun's 2007 was also better then his year this year.

 

To say they both had their "career years" at the age of 25 is kind of foolish.

It has been their career years to this point. Expecting them to repeat that year in year out is foolish in my opinion.

[JoeHova]

This the equivalent of the Knicks trading for Darko Milicic (except they didn't have to give up a good player to acquire him). Just because a guy was once highly regarded doesn't mean that he has any intrinsic value. Gomez is awful and there is a 95% chance that he will always be awful. Sure, there is that 5% chance that he'll become acceptable but there had to be a better bet out there to be made, especially when you're a team like the Brewers that can't afford mistakes.

 

Do people realize that the Brewers line-up next year (in Prince's probable final season as a Brewer) will likely include 6 spots with a sub-.330 OBP? The offense is going to be weak even if Prince has another season like he did in 2009. If he has a 2008 type of season, the Brewers will have one of the worst offenses in the league.

[sheethead]

Gomez' UZR/150 10.0. Cameron's UZR/150 10.3. So no.

 

I thought we needed 3 YEARS of data to conclude on this stat?

[ELCABALLO45]

He is not the best defensive CFer in baseball. He's slightly better than Cameron can be expected to be next year.

 

No, he's better than what Cameron was LAST year, and Cameron lost a step from 2008. It's reasonable to expect him to lose a bit more in 2010.

 

Gomez' UZR/150 10.0. Cameron's UZR/150 10.3. So no.

from 2008

 

Gomez +32

Cameron +8

[JoeHova]

Since when is CF a more offensive position than SS?

Since always, or at least the last 80 or so years. CFs hit around league average, SSs hit well below that.

[lukevan]

If Gomez stinks it up the first couple months (not starting every day, but getting a fair shot), you just play Gerut more, who many people were ready to give the bulk of starts in CF to anyway. I can see taking a shot at Gomez because of his youth and upside. At least he had a couple decent OBP seasons in the minors. Maybe he wasn't the right fit for the Twins offensive philosophies. You can say it was a waste to trade Hardy and we should've kept him but the Brewers needed to free up money for pitching. Keeping Hardy on the roster would've been a waste. I'm sure Melvin did his diligenceAt least we don't take a hit defensively at a prime defensive position. I'm confident Melvin will upgrade the offense elsewhere (C, RF) to keep us a top flight offense. Adding a healthy April-May '09 version of Rickie for what we hope is a full season should help as well.

In the end, I think a sacrifice had to be made at some point to give us a plausible chance at attaining GOOD starting pitching.

 

[RobDeer 45]

What will you guys think about this trade if JJ bounces back to his 07/08 numbers?

Personally I'll be happy for him. If he bounces back it really doesn't matter. We don't have a position for him. Escobar is our SS. So Hardy really has no value for our team unless he goes to a different position. We have to continue to get younger and cheaper for us to ever have a chance. Hopefully we can keep 2 studs on offense and maybe a big pitcher but beyond that we have to go young. Getting a guy like gomez with potential, speed, scrappyness is exactly what we need to do.

[olliegjw]

What will you guys think about this trade if JJ bounces back to his 07/08 numbers?

What will you think if JJ replicates his 09 numbers?

that it was a lateral at best trade? I don't know if I'd even start Gomez over Gerut who I also wasn't a fan of.

And I wouldn't start Hardy over Escobar. They traded a backup SS, for a high potential, cheap CF.

[RobDeer 45]

There is way too many ifs and buts going on here. You know a wise man once said you can if and but all you want but if your aunt had balls she'd be your uncle.

 

Let this thing work its self out. And remember we can't have the best player in the league at every position!!

[sheethead]

What will you guys think about this trade if JJ bounces back to his 07/08 numbers?

What will you think if JJ replicates his 09 numbers?

that it was a lateral at best trade? I don't know if I'd even start Gomez over Gerut who I also wasn't a fan of.

So if Gomez outhits Hardy and plays better defense than Hardy at a position of need for the Brewers, it was a lateral trade at best? Like I said, those who are already crapping on Gomez (not just being skeptical, but actually dumping on him rather harshly) are setting themselves up for a rough go if this kid pans out. Why be so polar on this?

[Mr QL]

Gomez's potential is what? Michael Bourn if all the stars align?

 

I have no confidence of us getting a good pitcher with this supposed money we save from this. I think the chances of us signing another Suppan is a lot higher than us getting a "GOOD" starting pitcher in FA.

[Funketown]

Wow, just saw this pop up on MLBTR and I thought there must have been another Carlos Gomez that I had forgotten about. Even if he's the best defender in the history of baseball, it's hard to justify putting that bat in the lineup. It almost has to just be that the Brewers didn't get any bites on Hardy and essentially just dumped his salary, unless I'm missing something. Are there any prospects coming the Brewers' way, or is this really a one-for-one deal?

[GoudaBrew]

Bourn is not a bad comparison and he's 3 years older than Gomez.

 

Gomez has at least shown the ability to take a walk here and there in the minor leagues.

 

In 2006 (AA) he hit .281/.350/.423 (and added 41 SBs)

 

In 2007 (AAA) he hit .287/.366/.412

 

It's obviously taking him a while in the majors, but he might put it together. Just trying to stay optimistic.

[rluzinski]

Wehen you consider age, I think it's very fair to assume Gomez will be a better defender than Cameron going foward. I wouldn't assuem it to be a huge difference. Nothing compared to their offensive projections.

 

I won't even call it a projection, since it's not regressed, doesn't account for age and many other things. I just looked at fangraph's "value" data for Hardy's last 3 years. I weighed 2009 50%, 2008 30% and 2007 20%. This is what I get for 2010 :

 

Batting: -4.4 run average average

Fielding: 10.1 run average average

Positional: 7 runs

 

Add in 21 runs for the difference between replacement level and average and you get 33.7 RAR for Hardy, or about 3.3 wins above replacement. According to that, Hardy's "projected" value is about $15 mil next year. He'll make, what, $7 mil? That's $8 mil of value the Brewers gave up for 2010 and maybe $6 mil for 2011. $13 mil total traded away?

 

Gomez is impossible to project with any accuracy. Somewhere between replacement level and average? Let's say 1.5 WAR, worth 6.75 mil, while he'll be paid $.5 mil (depends on who you ask if he's a super two). So the Twins gave up about $6 mil in value next year and maybe that much for the following year.

 

If Gomez could develop into even a /.320/.375 type hitter and remain a great defender, this might be an OK trade over the long term. For 2010, I think there's little chance Escobar + Gomez + $14 is as valuable as Hardy + Cameron.

 

You're right, statistically. But if a player is going to put up 75% of his overall production in a short time period, then spread the other 25% over the remaining much larger time period, there is no way that player has an equal effect on wins as a player that spreads their production more evenly throughout the course of the season.

 

Even if you assume that some players are predispositioned to be streaky, I don't think any reasonable model of that results in very much, in terms of wins and losses. It's just not extreme enough. Probably not even worth mentioning.