Ricky Nolasco

[Spidey]

Since the Marlins were unable to extend Uggla, I'm wondering if they will run into the same problem with Nolasco. MLB traderumors quotes owner Loria as saying "stay tuned" for more Marlins activity, but notes that they might look for another starter. I kind of doubt that they will part ways with Nolasco this year, but he intrigues me as a #2/#3 type pitcher for the Crew to target. If there's another Marlins fire-sale happening, Doug should kick the tires on this guy. Someone in the Gomez to Marlins thread suggested McGehee and Gomez, so I thought I'd resurrect this thread. Nolasco was a super-2 and is arbitration eligible for 2011 and 2012. Any thoughts on what it might take, and if they might deal him?

[dadofandrew]

Nolasco seems to getting about as much attention as Grienke. I feel Shields or Garza is more Melvin's under the radar style.

[colbyjack]

Why does Nolasco get so much attention? For someone that has a pretty good K:BB ratio, he also gives up a lot of hits, his WAR isn't particularly impressive, and while he turns 28 this offseason, he's not exactly showing an upward trend towards his peak years. Out of four full seasons, he has thrown more than 200 innings only once (next closest 185), has only one season with an ERA under 4.51 and has only one year with an ERA+ over 93. Oh yeah, the Marlins home park is very large. I didn't even realize how mediocre he was when I mentioned possibly trading McGehee for him last night.

 

I would need to be convinced otherwise to say a big "no thanks."

[Oldcity]

For one, his batting average on balls in play the last few years were huge. Because he has such a low walk rate, the ball is put in play fairly often. The Marlins have a bad defense, so it hurt him. Now, you could certainly make the point that the Brewers' defense offers no improvement from that. Still, his peripherals have been great and it's reflected in his xFIP.

 

2008: 3.75

2009: 3.28

2010: 3.55

 

I still see him as a strong number two starter.

[And That]

IIRC, isn't Nolasco pretty poorly conditioned? I only bring it up because after throwing 212 innings in 2008, he dropped to 185 IP in 2009 (though he had 15 rehab innings in the minors) and then 157 IP this year. That's the wrong direction. His GB% is also undesirable.

 

Still, I'd take him if the price were right. Like Stevo mentioned, very good peripherals and somewhat unlucky with balls in play. The Brewers would control him for two years and if he is fully healthy, he's a good/decent pitcher. I wouldn't call him a number two exactly (well, he would be in the Brewers rotation), but he'd certainly have the chance to be a strong #3 for a good team.

[dadofandrew]

3.5 xFIP is darn close to lower level ace material, and SP's don't throw 200 innings a year, they get banged up. If Nolasco isn't good enough, the available pitchers on the market may be down to Cliff Lee and Greinke.

[colbyjack]

If Nolasco isn't good enough, the available pitchers on the market may be down to Cliff Lee and Greinke.

 

While that is on the dramatic side, I am on record saying that I think if the Brewers are serious about the playoffs next year that they need to obtain one of the top pitchers that are available this offseason. They may not be one player away, but they may be one very good player to being a lot closer.

 

I question Nolasco based on the type of attention he is getting, and with that attention I'm guessing it will take a fairly substantial package to acquire him. As Toby noted, I would only trade for him if the price was right, and I don't think the price will be right. I appreciate having the FIP numbers provided, and agree that there is reason for promise, however as Stevo noted it's not like the Brewers defense would be doing Nolasco any favors.

 

Plus, if you do really like Nolasco, are you willing to give up the talent that may be necessary to get him pinning your hope on him being victimized by bad luck?

 

And BTW, there were 45 pitchers that tossed 200+ innings last year, and 95 that threw more than Nolasco did. I'm not suggesting IP is the end all be all to a pitcher's success, but to say that SP's don't throw 200 innings a year is just plain wrong.

[And That]

SP's don't throw 200 innings a year, they get banged up.

Oof.

[Invader3K]

Do we even know if the Marlins are actually looking to possibly trade Nolasco? Maybe I missed something. It made a lot more sense for them to trade Uggla, even for a mediocre return, than it would for them to deal Nolasco right now.

[dadofandrew]

45 SP's threw 200 innings, so that's 1.5 per team. Most do not. Not sure what's difficult to "get" in that mathematical equation.

 

Yo's never thrown 200, so I guess he's not worth having either? Perhaps I should have said "every year," but you have a very small selection if you limit your list to 200 IP guys.

[And That]

45 SP's threw 200 innings, so that's 1.5 per team. Most do not. Not sure

what's difficult to "get" in that mathematical equation.

 

You said: SP's don't throw 200 innings a year

 

Evidently, you didn't "get" it?

 

Yo's never thrown 200, so I guess he's not worth having either?

 

This is a strawman, and ridiculous. No one has said anything of the sort.

 

I said Nolasco's IP have declined each of the past two years, especially

last year. That's concerning. Gallardo's IP have held steady the past

two years. That's not concerning.

 

Not sure what's difficult to "get" about that.

[cvollbrecht]

http://www.mlbtraderumors...st-in-nolasco-nunez.html

 

Marlins a gauging interest in Nolasco.

 

Would you offer McGehee and Parra for him?

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm not sure he'd be a good fit with the Brewers. Even with a home park that's one of the least homer-friendly in MLB, his HR/9 rate was an ugly 1.4. If Nolasco had pitched enough innings to qualify, he would've been tied with Dave Bush & Joe Blanton for the third-worst rate in the NL. Sun Life Stadium's HR park factor this season was .822; compare that to Miller Park's 1.233. Nolasco would seem a veritable lock for 30 HRA each season he pitched as a Brewer.

 

He obviously has an excellent K/BB ratio, so I guess if the Marlins weren't asking for too much, okay. But I'm not sure I'd even want to give up McGehee for him. If the Brewers are moving McGehee, I'd like to see a better pitcher in return.

[And That]

Jon Paul Morosi reports that there's an impasse in the long-term contract negotiations between the Marlins and Nolasco. He lists the Brewers as as a potential suitor.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't see Nolasco as much more than a #3. He's pretty inconsistent. That said, though I'd rather have Garza, I'd much prefer him to Pavano. I'd offer the Marlins a package of Rogers or Jeffress and Gomez, with perhaps a low minors guy as well. That's about as high as I would go.

[TooLiveBrew]

Nolasco would be a decent fit for 2011, but I'm not sure I'd want to see the Brewers commit to him long-term.

[MNBrew]

Career 4.5-ish ERA and only one year w/ an ERA under 4? No thanks.

 

A few other stats look solid, but others are hardly a serious upgrade worth giving up much for.

[Team Canada]

Thankfully this thread can now die. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Funketown]

Yuniesky for Nolasco!