Ricky Nolasco

[reillymcshane]

I know Nolasco's name has come up in some posts, and to me he looks like the kind of guy to make a play on.

 

He had a bad ERA in 2009 - 5.06. But his peripherals all seem good. 195k vs 44bb in 181 innings. 23 HRs given up isn't great, but it's not horrible either. His WHIP was a 1.25. He got both lefties and righties out at a pretty even rate. His BABIP was .322 - so he probably had a little bad luck. He had a very good 2008 - 3.52 ERA, 200+ innings. So we'd probably be able to get him while he's at less than peak value.

 

I believe he has 2 years left before arbitration - although it could be 3. I don't know for sure. He probably is going to make $4-5 million in 2010, so the Marlins might be looking to move him.

 

I don't know much about Nolasco - injury history, reputation, what he throws, etc. So there may be reasons not to go after him. I know Florida's stadium is pitcher friendly, but his numbers aren't much different at home than on the road.

 

I like the idea of a strike throwing workhorse type - and wonder if he could fit the bill. He'll be 27 next year, so he should be hitting his prime.

 

The obvious issue is that the Marlins don't want salary back - so we'd have to give them someone young in return. I don't know if a package with a second-tier type prospect would do - or if someone like Casey McGehee would need to be dealt (the Marlins could probably use an INF since there's a good chance they'll move Uggla and Cantu with their high salaries). McGehee - with five years left of eligibility - would be an overpay. But maybe we get something else back. Don't know.

 

Just thought I'd throw out the idea - possible packages that could get Nolasco.

[marty22]

I doubt McGehee could fetch Nolasco, but if he could, i would jump on it. Nolasco is not a 5.00 ERA pitcher.

[Invader3K]

Would like to get him. He was bad at the start of the season, but was sent down to AAA, got his "stuff" in order, and came back and was very solid the rest of the year. Maybe McGehee plus one or two lower level minor leaguers (I'd assume one would have to be a pitcher) could get it done.

[thebruce44]

As the 2009 season wraps up, Nolasco's surface stats would lead one to believe that he has been a bust. After all, his ERA is over five (5.06), and he was demoted to the minors in late May.

 

Nothing could be further from the truth.

 

If anything, the skills over which Nolasco has the most direct control have gotten stronger. Ricky has whiffed 9.49 hitters per nine frames, sandwiching him between Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw for 7th among all starting pitchers. Nolasco remains precise, too, with 2.14 BB/9. That's in the top 20 for starters. His FIP is down to 3.35, ranking just behind Dan Haren and in front of Ubaldo Jimenez.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/nothing-wrong-with-nolasco

 

He is a very solild #2 with some upside still. Guys like that have a lot of value. I would guess a McGehee and a top 10 prospect would be needed?

[Bombers]

I think this is the types of moves the Brewers need to look into. McGehee straight up won't work but they do need help at 3 with Cantu being their everyday 1B. If we include a prospect and you might have a deal. The marlins are always looking to stay cheap. McGehee would suit them (price wise).

[NievesNoNO]

Nolasco would be great, but McGhee won't be enough. He'd be the ace right now for probably at least half the teams in MLB, including Milwaukee with the potential to improve yet. It'll take a top prospect to get him IMO. He's a player I'd trade Gamel for. Gamel and a mid-level pitching prospect might work.

[Invader3K]

Nolasco would be great, but McGhee won't be enough. He'd be the ace right now for probably at least half the teams in MLB, including Milwaukee with the potential to improve yet. It'll take a top prospect to get him IMO. He's a player I'd trade Gamel for. Gamel and a mid-level pitching prospect might work.

Me too. I'm not totally convinced the Marlins will even consider trading him though...then again, it's the Marlins.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd love to see Nolasco in Milwaukee, but I have a hard time seeing the Fish sell so (relatively) low on him. By all accounts, he's an ace in the making, and I don't think anything short of Gamel + another top prospect or two would get it done.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I would seriously consider Nolasco. He is a pitcher that just simply had a bad year in 2009.

[804Sox]

Of course you would. Everyone would consider nolasco. He's a cost-controlled #1/2 pitcher with great peripherals. Unfortunately, it's going to take a lot to get him.

 

I'd look at Andrew Miller instead. The rookie contract he signed has made him expensive quickly, and he has not yet performed on par with Nolasco, Josh Johnson, et al. I think the Marlin's decision to "give up" on Hermida suggests that they might have a similar willingness to shed Miller's contract for the right package. Probably a bit more than Hermida's given the value of pitching, but I think he could be had.

[Oldcity]

Andrew Miller is a good suggestion. I'd love to get our hands on Homer Bailey, but the time to do that was probably a year ago; don't see the Reds giving him up now.

[TooLiveBrew]

The main knock I've seen on Miller is mechanics, so perhaps now that we've signed Peterson it's the right time to try him out.

[brosto1]

I think the Marlins are an obvious partner for Gamel. They are always looking to go cheap and may be looking to fill three infield positions this winter. The Marlins also have a lot of pitching. I am not sure who they will be able to get, but I really think this is where Gamel or McGehee end up.

[interestobserver]

Of course you would. Everyone would consider nolasco. He's a cost-controlled #1/2 pitcher with great peripherals. Unfortunately, it's going to take a lot to get him.

 

I'd look at Andrew Miller instead. The rookie contract he signed has made him expensive quickly, and he has not yet performed on par with Nolasco, Josh Johnson, et al. I think the Marlin's decision to "give up" on Hermida suggests that they might have a similar willingness to shed Miller's contract for the right package. Probably a bit more than Hermida's given the value of pitching, but I think he could be had.

 

Every board has a thread on getting Nolasco. He's not coming for fringe players.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just wanted to get some thoughts on http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=20793?page=2'>an idea proposed in a different thread by Louis Ely:

 

 

McGehee+Peralta+Rivas to Florida for Nolasco.

I'm just wondering how people view this deal -- too low? too high? a good starting point? I don't stay as dialed in as others on trade offers, so I'm genuinely curious. Nolasco is a guy I'd love to see the Brewers get.

[trwi7]

I'm not really sure what to think. He's heading into his second arbitration year, I really like the arms that we're giving up and Nolasco did come off a 5 ERA (I agree he was unlucky this year, but I don't know how much into sabermetrics the Marlins staff is, so I don't know if they thought he was terrible or unlucky).

 

I'm just not sure about the deal, that probably means it's fair, I just don't know if giving up prospects is the right way to go right now.

[Oldcity]

I'd be pleased with that deal. I'd be a little surprised if it was enough to get Nolasco.

[Invader3K]

I agree, Stevo. My guess is that we'd have to put Gamel instead of McGehee to get it done. Then again maybe the Marlins would rather have McGehee.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

http://www.baseball-refer...layers/n/nolasri01.shtml

 

Compared to Dan Haren at a similar age... BR also notes that he is essentially Scott Baker. Best case he becomes a solid #2-3 type pitcher, worst case he's Dave Bush who can be very effective if he stays out of the big inning. I too would trade Gamel for this type of player.

 

Looks like he was a "super 2" in 2009. I believe he is under control for 3 more years (2010, 2011, 2012)

[804Sox]

I agree, Stevo. My guess is that we'd have to put Gamel instead of McGehee to get it done. Then again maybe the Marlins would rather have McGehee.

I'm not trying to pick on you, but I'm just confused. Why do people keep mentioning Gamel and McGehee as being essentially interchangeable. Gamel is a VERY good hitting prospect and has significant value both to the Brewers and in trade. McGehee, right now, is nothing. He may have value to the Brewers if he plays well again next season, but I can't imagine his trade value right now being very far above 0. His age, underwhelming minor league performance and lack of top-prospect pedigree are major red flags given that his career MLB stats represent such a small sample size. Gamel is younger, has top-prospect pedigree, and RAKED in the minors, suggesting that he will play better at the MLB level than his current small sample of stats.

 

There really should be no mention of the two in the same sentence at this point, other than to note that they are both options for the Brewers at 3B for next year.

[Invader3K]

You never know. You seem to be discounting that McGehee had a great season at the MLB level, while Gamel was pretty nondescript. He also stunk when he got sent back down to AAA. That could send up red flags, speaking of those, with some teams. I agree that Gamel still probably has the higher value, but it may not be as high as some here think.

[TooLiveBrew]

Gamel was league-average for his position in his first MLB stint. That's definitely better than nondescript -- we've just been spoiled by Fielder & Braun.

[interestobserver]

Just wanted to get some thoughts on http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=20793?page=2'>an idea proposed in a different thread by Louis Ely:

 

 

McGehee+Peralta+Rivas to Florida for Nolasco.

I'm just wondering how people view this deal -- too low? too high? a good starting point? I don't stay as dialed in as others on trade offers, so I'm genuinely curious. Nolasco is a guy I'd love to see the Brewers get.

 

Every board in baseball has a thread on getting Nolasco. The secrets out. He won't come cheap.

[rluzinski]

The secrets out. He won't come cheap.

 

I'm not sure it was ever a secret. I think some fans are just underestimating the intelligence of an average MLB GM. They don't just look at a pitcher's ERA from the previous year to determine value. Nolasco had a great 2008 by any measure and great peripherals in 2009. He's also dirt cheap. He has a TON of value in a trade.

[endaround]

Well the Phillies got Lee for a song after he won the Cy young so its hard to say whats going to happen.