College Basketball 2009-2010 (part 1)

[thebruce44]

I hope this Marquette team doesn't get lost in the shuffle of the enormous Big East because they've been playing great and definitely deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament. They're probably a team that's flying under the radar nationally right now. I don't know if people realize how good of a team they are - just very undersized. I think they are much more dangerous than their overall and conference records suggest.

They got beat up in the beginning of their conference schedule, but I think they will make the tourney if they win all the games they should from here on out. To guarantee a spot, I think they need to beat Pitt. South Florida is playing really well right now and that game worries me a bit. Besides those two games, everything else looks like it should be winnable at this point.

[bucks2281]

I haven't seen a bracket projection that has Wisconsin playing at the Bradley Center -- most of them have UW at a 3/4 seed playing in either New Orleans or Spokane. Back in 2004, IIRC, the committee downgraded Wisconsin a couple of seeds in exchange for "home" games at the Bradley Center. In the end, it didn't work out. They haven't exactly done the same to Villanova or UNC/Duke/Wake Forest in the past, so we'll see what they do with the Badgers.

 

If Marquette (Butler and DJO, I'm looking at you) could make their free throws, they could be 8-2 in conference right now and a tournament lock. The Providence and Cincinnati road games scare me and I believe they'll lose at least one. Even if they're relegated to the NIT, they deserve a lot of credit. I'm just happy they're making things interesting at this point.

[LouisEly]

I hope it doesn't go unnoticed that Marquette's five road conference losses, three of them to top 10 teams, have been by a total of 11 points. They don't have a difficult schedule at all the rest of the way - no teams that are ranked as of today and only two games against teams with better conference records - Louisville and Pitt - and both of those games at home. I think there is a good chance they win 6 of their last 8 and get to 20 wins with 11 wins in the Big East. That should get them in. My prediction is a 10 seed for Marquette.

[thebruce44]

What do you guys think they would be ranked if they had won those close ones against @WVa (63-62), Vill (74-72), @Vill (78-76), @Cuse (76-71). Say they somehow take WVa, and Vill twice (8 more points in the 3 games) and I wonder if they are ranked in the top 15. Anyway, its fun to think about and I think they have showed they can play with anyone. They are going to be that 10 or 11 seed that nobody wants in the first or second round come tourny time.

[TooLiveBrew]

I feel for MU fans this season. What a tough year so far. They've certainly showed that the talent they do have is very worthy. It's just frustrating to see them drop so many close games. I just hope they aren't *that* team this year that proves they can play with just about anyone, but misses the NCAA tourney because they just didn't win enough of the close ones. I really hope they can get 10 or 11 wins in the Big East, as like LouisEly mentioned, that should be good enough to get into the Big Dance.

[owbc]

I was at the Badger tournament game at the BC against Richmond. The crowd was 95% for the Badgers, but they came out flat and trailed at halftime. Part of the problem was that they were dropped to a #6 seed in exchange for getting the home state advantage. The place was as loud as I have ever heard a basketball game in the second half (Bucky scored on something like 17 straight possessions), but it just isn't worth it. I will be at the first round games again this year, but I would rather see different teams in exchange for the Badgers getting a higher seed and playing elsewhere.

[bani1717]

with any luck, they finish the season strong and go deep in the big ten tourney and you get both.... Badgers at the BC and a high seed

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think I'll be able to watch the Badgers' game today. I'm really worried about this one, & hope the guys have stayed focused after the emotional high of pounding Sparty. As long as Bo's players execute, they should be able to overwhelm UM.

[hawing]

The Badgers are on CBS in Madison, so maybe TLB is saying he can't get to a TV this afternoon.

 

A friend visited my library on Friday, and while walking back through Library Mall came across Keaton Nankivil. He stopped Keaton to compliment him on the MSU game and they had a two block chat from the University Book Store to Frances St. My friend was beyond thrilled by Keaton's friendliness and willingness to talk to a total stranger (who's old enough to be his dad). Tip of the cap to #52!

 

[Roscoe Chill]

Assuming Leuer comes back at full strength, dare I say that this might be the most dangerous Badger team yet as far as the NCAA tournament goes? Those mediocre guards are pretty much a nightmare for opposing teams right now. Bohannon as the semi-forgotten 3rd man? Taylor made...pun intended.

[Oldcity]

They just dismantled Michigan. I love this team.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, what a nice win. They did exactly what I was hoping they'd do. I was home in time to watch most of the second half.

 

 

Assuming Leuer comes back at full strength, dare I say that this might be the most dangerous Badger team yet as far as the NCAA tournament goes?

 

Under Bo Ryan, absolutely.

[crewcrazy]

This team is just so much fun to watch right now. It almost feels like they could beat anyone, but hopefully a pair of very easy wins won't leave this team complacent.

[GB12]

Assuming Leuer comes back at full strength, dare I say that this might be the most dangerous Badger team yet as far as the NCAA tournament goes? Those mediocre guards are pretty much a nightmare for opposing teams right now. Bohannon as the semi-forgotten 3rd man? Taylor made...pun intended.

I can agree with that. When they achieved the #1 ranking a few years ago, as good as that team was, they were too reliant on Alando Tucker and that lead to the early exit. This year there is so much balance on this team it's ridiculous. You start at the top level with Hughes, Bohannon, and Leuer. At least one of those should top 15 points with probably getting at least 2 in double digits. Then you drop down a level and you got Taylor and Nankivil. These guys have been borderline first group as of late. Taylor has scored 13+ in the last 4 games and Nankivil is averaging 12.7 since Leuer has been out. That's 5 very solid guys that are going to give both offensive and defensive production. There aren't many teams that can say they have a better five than that. Then you go deeper in and get Evans, Wilson, and Jarmusz. All three are under 5 points per game, but they still bring value to the team. I'd even say that Rob Wilson almost single handedly won the first Michigan game.

I don't think I'm being a homer in saying I truly believe that they can make the Final Four this year. I'm certainly not predicting it (yet. we'll see what I project in my bracket, although I doubt it), but I think it's possible. I think we can expect at least a Sweet Sixteen from this team though.

[Baldkin]

Assuming Leuer comes back at full strength, dare I say that this might be the most dangerous Badger team yet as far as the NCAA tournament goes? Those mediocre guards are pretty much a nightmare for opposing teams right now. Bohannon as the semi-forgotten 3rd man? Taylor made...pun intended.

I can agree with that. When they achieved the #1 ranking a few years ago, as good as that team was, they were too reliant on Alando Tucker and that lead to the early exit.

I won't agree with that. Their early exit was because Butch got hurt, they lost their 3nd leading scorer (and mismatch nightmare) and top rebounder/post defender.

 

But man, this team is good. I've never thought I'd see a team as patient as Dick Bennet's squads again, but they just wait and wait until they get that solid look at the hoop... the best part is, they don't hesitate if it happens early in the shot clock.

[young guns]

Illinois just made things interesting in the Big Ten by beating Mich. St. Huge win for them and everyone else with 3 conf. losses.

[TooLiveBrew]

Wow, I didn't catch that. Awesome! I see Lucas was out, but even so, quite impressive from the Illini.

 

Here are some quotes on Lucas's satus, per a Yahoo/Rivals.com story prior to tonight's game:

 

 

Lucas, dressed in sweats, limped slightly as he helped teammates through pregame warmups. Larson said he was able to participate in some of the afternoon shootaround but wouldn’t speculate on when he will practice or play again.

 

Just before tipoff, he said: “My ankle feels much better. You know, right now I’m getting a lot of treatments and stuff like that.”

 

Team spokesman Matt Larson said the Spartans don’t know when Lucas will start practicing again, or if he’ll be ready Tuesday.

 

“It’s too early to tell,” Larson said. “Every day he gets better and better.”

 

 

If I'm a MSU fan, the fact that they don't even know when he's going to be able to start practicing again would really have me concerned.

[TooLiveBrew]

Oh, and other results today... Villanova got spanked by Georgetown 103-90, unranked Oklahoma knocked off #9 Texas, #12 BYU lost at UNLV

 

Wisconsin is looking better & better. I'll be very interested to see how far they climb in the new polls. Now it's time to get Leuer back. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[GB12]

Oh, and other results today... Villanova got spanked by Georgetown 103-90, unranked Oklahoma knocked off #9 Texas, #12 BYU lost at UNLV

 

Wisconsin is looking better & better. I'll be very interested to see how far they climb in the new polls. Now it's time to get Leuer back. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

And interestingly enough the Illinois win probably actually hurt a bit for the polls as I'm sure some voters will see the Michigan State win as a little less impressive now that they lost again. However the gain in the conference standings is much more important than the poll position. I posted kind of a Big Ten break down somewhere else, I guess I might as well post it here too. The Badgers are actually in great position to get a piece of the Big Ten title now.

So how does the Big Ten shake out.

 

The Big Ten standings right now look like:

 

1. Michigan State (9-2)

2. Wisconsin (8-3)

3. Illinois (8-3)

4. Purdue (7-3)

5. Ohio State (7-3)

 

It looks wide open between the top 5, and in a way it is, but I'd rank them in the order listed below for favorites to get at least a share of the title.

 

Wisconsin: Already had all the tough conference games in the early part of conference play and made it through with only 3 losses. Those losses came against Michigan State, Ohio State, and Purdue all on the road. The Badgers won all three home matches giving them a split series for all. So with those out of the way Wisconsin has a cake walk of a schedule to finish the season. All they have to do is take care of business against teams they should beat anyway and they're looking pretty good for at least a share of the title. Hardest 3 games remaining: @Illinois, Illinois, @Minnesota

 

Michigan State Obviously being in first place right now they control their own destiny and take it if they win out. However they got Purdue right away on Tuesday which could give the Spartans their third loss in a row and put them right back with the rest of the pack. I'm not sure what Kalin Lucas' status is for that game, but if he's still out or even not 100% I definitely see Purdue winning. Even if they win they still have to play Ohio State and go to Purdue. I see them getting at least one loss out of those and assuming Wisconsin can take care of business against the lesser teams that'd get them a share of the title, but I think there's a good chance they drop two there. Hardest 3 games remaining: @Purdue, Purdue, Ohio State

 

Ohio State Only two really tough games remaining, but the timing isn't too nice. They have to go to Michigan state just three days after playing the Boilermakers. However they have already beaten Purdue on the road and have only one conference loss with Evan Turner. If the records were even I'd definitely put them ahead of Michigan State. Hardest 3 games remaining:@Ohio State, Michigan State, @Illinois

 

Purdue They still have a lot of work to do. They have to go on the road to Michigan State and to Ohio State within a 9 day span. They also have to face Michigan state for the second time on the 27th. With 3 losses already it'll be tough to get through that and still have a shot. One loss might keep them from having a chance, and two almost certainly will. Hardest 3 games remaining: @Michigan State, @Ohio State, Michigan State

 

Illinois: I almost didn't want to include them because like I said they have no chance, but I suppose I'll show why. They're pretty much the opposite of Wisconsin. They've had the easiest schedule in the Big Ten so far, and that is the only reason they are sitting at 8-3. They're just about done with those easy games now though. They probably have the hardest remaining schedule of any team in the nation. In their final 7 games they have to play Wisconsin twice, Ohio State twice, and Purdue. They should enjoy that third place standing now because Illinois is looking at a 12-6 to 10-8 conference record at the end of the year. Hardest 3 games remaining: @Wisconsin, @Ohio State, @Purdue

 

Basically Wisconsin has gotten its hard games out of the way while Michigan State, Purdue, and Ohio State will beat up on each other. For the next section I tried doing percentages, but there are still way to many possibilities, so I'm just going to list the possibilities with the best chances. I'm pretty much assuming that all games not against another contender is won, which of course as seen by tonight's game is not always the case.

 

Assuming 2 losses takes the conference: Champion: Michigan State

 

Assuming 3 losses takes the conference: One of Purdue and Ohio State will be eliminated after their match up. That is certain, there cannot be a 4 way tie with 3 losses. It's also extremely unlikely that everything plays out perfectly so that both Michigan State and the winner have 3 losses. Champion: 1. Wisconsin and Michigan State 2. Wisconsin 3. Wisconsin and Ohio State 4. Michigan State

 

Assuming 4 losses takes the conference: Well for this to happen Wisconsin would have dropped a game to a game it should have won and Michigan State would have lost 2. This is where the three way ties come in. Still impossible for the 4 way I believe. However a three way would seem very likely. Champion: 1. Wisconsin/Michigan State/Ohio State 2. Wisconsin/Michigan State/Purdue 3. Wisconsin

 

Now here are my predictions as to how the rest of the season will play out.

 

Illinois:

@ WIS - L

OSU - W

@ PUR - L

@ MICH - W

MINN - W

@ OSU - L

WIS - L

 

11-7

 

Purdue

@ MSU -W

IOWA- W

@ OSU -L

ILL - W

@ MINN - W

MSU - L

IND - W

@ PSU - W

 

13-5

 

Ohio State

IOWA - W

@ IND - W

@ ILL- L

PUR - W

@ MSU - L

@ PSU - W

MICH - W

ILL - W

 

13-5

 

Wisconsin

ILL - W

IND - W

@ MINN - L

NW - W

@ IND - W

IOWA - W

@ ILL - W

 

14-4

 

Michigan State

PUR -L

@ PSU - W

@ IND - W

OSU - W

@ PUR - W

PSU -W

MICH -W

 

15-3

 

Big Ten Champion: Michigan State

[TooLiveBrew]

Man, you did a lot of work on that breakdown... nice. I do have to say that I see MSU losing one of the three remaining road games and/or against OSU. I'm not sure what tiebreaker rules are for the Big Ten, but I think it's actually quite likely there's a tie between Bucky & Sparty. I guess the Badgers will just have to win out!

[GB12]

Yeah, I'm almost expecting a Michigan State and Wisconsin tie. When I was trying to do the percentages Wisconsin and Michigan State sharing the title was by far the most likely scenario. The predictions was more of just what I was thinking at the moment. I felt like throwing in a Wisconsin loss otherwise they would have tied in that too.

 

As for the tie breaker rules, there are none. The Big Ten just names them co-champions. The last time there was a tie was 2002 when Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, and Illinois all finished 11-5 so there were 4 co-champions.

[zurch1818]

I'm not sure what tiebreaker rules are for the Big Ten, but I think it's actually quite likely there's a tie between Bucky & Sparty. I guess the Badgers will just have to win out!

The tiebreaker rules are simple in the Big Ten.....there aren't any. It is just one big tie. In 2002, there were many Big Ten Champions. In 2003, there was only 1 -- the Badgers were the undisputed Big Ten Champions.

[homer]

UW will win the Big Ten....my prediction after a night drinking.

[Glennron]

How would they do tie breakers for seeding if there was a four team tie? It'd be a huge difference if you get to play Michigan/Indiana in the quarterfinals as opposed to someone like Illinois in the 4/5 game. I'm guessing they would do head-to-head, but Wisconsin split with the other top 3 teams in the conference, and there could be other splits with Purdue/MSU and maybe Purdue/OSU.

[zzzmanwitz]

First Tiebreaker is head to head with all the teams that are tied, ranked in order of winning percentages.

 

2nd Tiebreaker is best record vs #1 seed, then #2 seed, then #3 seed, etc.