Prospect List Discussion

[MJLiverock]

I don't know if anyone else saw it, I didn't see it mentioned here, but MLB Network had a special 1 hour show dedicated to the top 50 prospects in the minors or at least still having rookie status in the majors for 2010. I DVR'd the show a few weeks ago but just got around to watching it. The only Brewers to make the list were Lawrie at around 26 IIRC, and Escobar at either 12 or 14. I think Michael Brantley was in the upper 40's.

 

It was a decent showing with the studio guys talking a little more than just a sentence about one or two of the guys out of the groups of 5 they revealed at a time. It was a little sad to see how few Brewers prospects are highly regarded, there just aren't that many guys in the upper levels yet in comparison to some of the teams with 3 or more guys in the top 50. I guess I wouldn't quibble with the ratings systems that put the Brewers minor leagues in the lower half of baseball, at least not until some of the pitchers start having success in AA or higher and some the hitters start showing something in AAA to give hope credence to the success or improvments shown in lower levels.

[battlekow]

The Baseball America Top 100 list is out, and three Brewers are on it:

 

12. Alcides Escobar

59. Brett Lawrie

89. Mat Gamel

[twobrewers]

Too bad he isn't eligible, I'd really like to see where LaPorta would have been ranked.

I'm a little surprised Brantley didn't sneak into the top 100.

[battlekow]

The things I'm reading in the offseason about Caleb Gindl, specifically his defense, are interesting. Maybe I'm just a fanboy or my opinion is informed too much by the TZ rating Sickels alludes to, but one of the main reasons I've felt Gindl is an underrated prospect over the last couple of years is his defensive value, combining good range with a strong arm; however, from these reports, it would seem that there are plenty of scouts out there who see Gindl providing neither range nor arm:

 

Baseball Prospectus:

His upside is limited not so much by his size as his defensive range and arm, which will probably limit him to left field in the majors, though the organization believes he wouldn't be a disaster in center.

Baseball America:

Almost all of Gindl's value lies in his bat...As a left fielder, he's just an adequate defender, though he does have arm strength.

John Sickels:

Scouts say he has poor range and a weak arm, but the Total Zone system rates him as an above average defender.

The two comments impugning his arm seem especially strange, particularly contrasted with the praise it gets from Baseball America. I'm positive I've heard observers praise his arm in the past, and the fact that he was a decent pitching prospect backs up that praise. I'm torn here between a rational instinct to default to the opinions of those who have (ostensibly) actually seen the guy play and a sneaking suspicion that these sources are just plain wrong, or at least exaggerating. I mean, even the one source who doesn't damn his arm refers to him explicitly as a left fielder, despite the vast majority of his minor league appearances coming as a right fielder. So, what to think?

[captkirk16]

Too funny, all this stuff about Gindl's arm, REALLY? Do you all remember after his year at Helena, the next spring he played with the bigboys against the cubs. Fly ball to the fence in right and the kid threw out Derosa tagging up from third. The kid just throws rockets. I'm excited about him coming to Huntsville as well as the rest he came up with. That group has made the playoffs every year. Should be a great year and guess what? He still only 5"10 and 21 yrs old http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[804Sox]

I honestly don't know much about Gindl's arm, as I've never seen him play, but the varying reports could be highlighting the distinction between arm strength and "arm" as a tool, which encompasses both strength and accuracy. If Gindl has a strong but inaccurate or inconsistent arm, that would seem to jive with all of the reports and anecdotal evidence.

 

Just a thought . . .

[battlekow]

I honestly don't know much about Gindl's arm, as I've never seen him play, but the varying reports could be highlighting the distinction between arm strength and "arm" as a tool, which encompasses both strength and accuracy. If Gindl has a strong but inaccurate or inconsistent arm, that would seem to jive with all of the reports and anecdotal evidence.

Sickels does specifically call his arm "weak". Anyway, I suppose you could be right, but that's usually the type of thing that merits further comment, much in the same way that Salome's strong arm is always mentioned hand-in-hand with the general defensive criticism of him.

[TheCrew07]

I'm right there with you battlekow... this season these reports of defensive issues seem to come out of nowhere. I distinctly remember that if he was taller he would have been drafted as a pitcher because his fastball was 90+. In fact, had he been taller the Brewers wouldn't have been able to pick him up so low in draft. Somehow being short has become being slow with a bad arm. It just doesn't add up...

 

You know the more I think about it, the more Gindl reminds me of Rivas. Rivas is lumped in with Anundsen way too often from those who should know better, he consistently works in the low 90s, reaches 95, and was rated as having the best Change in the FSL yet he has a limited upside similar to Anundsen? Hell if Anundsen could pull an Axford and get back 5mph of his lost velocity he'd be a very good prospect in his own right.

 

I understand there are literally a ton of prospects to keep up with, I only keep with the players in the same leagues as our young men and NL central, though I do browse the leaderboards of the other leagues and top prospects of each organization to see who's out there. However I'm unsure how a young man with the arm to be drafted as a somewhat projectable pitcher ends up getting labeled similar to Gillespie in that he's a LF only because of limited range and arm strength. I often wonder if the pundits read each other's work and just repeat the same scouting reports, regardless of their accuracy, or if there is only one scout who will talk to these guys and they print whatever he says...

 

I struggled rating Gindl myself, I didn't like where I put him in my top 20 as it seemed too low but everytime I made a list from scratch he ended up in the same spot. I hope he explodes in AA next season.

[battlekow]

You know the more I think about it, the more Gindl reminds me of Rivas. Rivas is lumped in with Anundsen way too often from those who should know better, he consistently works in the low 90s, reaches 95, and was rated as having the best Change in the FSL yet he has a limited upside similar to Anundsen?

I agree. I know Rivas lacks a strong breaking ball, but a guy that can touch 95 and, according to BA, has the best changeup and best control in the system sounds like someone I should respect in my rankings--and I have, but it seems like other people haven't, leaving me to wonder what's missing from the picture and who's missing it.

[BoKnowsBall]

I know fielding stats really don't tell you much at all but Gindl did have 11 Assists in only 92 games playing right this last year

[Beerambassador]

So, what to think?

Personally, I think there are a ton of prospect "experts" out there who really have no or very limited first-hand experience. They're just regurgitating what they've heard or read elsewhere. There are very few people out there who are actually doing any real scouting and/or original reporting on prospects. Heck, even John Sickels isn't out in the field scouting all that much. Read his blog, he takes a handful of "scouting trips" each year...if even that many. And he's considered one of the best? I'm sure he's got his sources, but how many of them are repeating stuff they themselves have heard second hand?

[TooLiveBrew]

That's one thing I always wonder about prospect experts. Even if they'd spend 365 days a year on the road, they'd only be able to see the top prospects a handful of times.

[SoCalBrewfan]

IIRC colbyjack looked at a draft prospect recently and illustrated how one printed comment quickly became repeated over and over again, though it was (in his opinion anyway) inaccurate. (It's not a new phenomenon...Steven Jay Gould wrote about the common comparison by textbooks of an Eohippus to a fox terrier, which was both wrong and not helpful, as most students reading the comparison didn't recognize the species.)

[battlekow]

John Sickels reviews his preseason Brewers prospect list.

[TooLiveBrew]

Didn't want to start a new thread, but this was particularly impressive to me:

The next big league reinforcement, like [C Jason] Castro, might come from the Astros' own ranks. Jordan Lyles, the 19-year-old righthander, makes his Triple-A debut today for Round Rock after going 7-9, 3.12 in 20 starts for Double-A Corpus Christi. He struck out 115 and walked 35 over 127 innings.

Link

 

19-yo Lyles's line from said debut: 6 IP, 8 H, 4 R (4ER), 1 BB, 9 K. Wow. Not exactly a glowing scouting report from Project Prospect last October, but his numbers this season speak for themselves.

[trwi7]

He's five months younger than my youngest brother and is on the verge of the big leagues which makes me feel old.

[craigharmann]

Looking at Sickels' list, I was surprised he gave Arnett a B, and the comments were less than glowing....but Cain gets a C+?? Not so sure about that.

[gobrew23]

Looking at Sickels' list, I was surprised he gave Arnett a B, and the comments were less than glowing....but Cain gets a C+?? Not so sure about that.

The grades listed are from before this season. The only thing new are his comments. Sickels' will have a new list with new grades in the coming offseason.

 

[craigharmann]

Ahhh, my bad. I thought the grades were updated through the season. That makes more sense.

[jackalope02ca]

Nope old grades. Or you would have seen a big fat F besides Arnett. I'm not sure there is a prospect in baseball that's fallen farther or harder than Arnett this year. I know people will say it's only one year but if he wasn't a first rounder I'm pretty sure he would have already been released. On the bright side the rest of the list looks pretty good at this point other than Salome. These prospects have performed overall better than I had thought they would at the start of the year. That's great.

[nate82]

I know people will say it's only one year but if he wasn't a first rounder I'm pretty sure he would have already been released.

I am pretty sure you would be 110% wrong.

[And That]

If he wasn't a first rounder, he would be a different pitcher.

[Tedaldtada]

I think Jackelope might be new to following prospects.

[jackalope02ca]

Nope been following prospects closely for around 25 years. Although before the internet it was tough. I'm just a little more realistic than most. If you got it you got it. if you don't you don't. Arnett doesn't have it. The velocity isn't there to work with plain and simple from the reports I've seen. Unless this is another Brewer case of him pitching hurt all year we'd save ourselves a lot of grief by just outright releasing him and moving on. If he's been pitching hurt all year and that is the cause for poor results? Well we've been there and done that way to many times in this organization over the years.

[TooLiveBrew]

If you got it you got it. if you don't you don't. Arnett doesn't have it.

 

So Angel Salome still has it, then, right?