Prospect List Discussion

[battlekow]

Relevant chat snippets:

Victor (DC)

 

Could Alcides Escobar develop like a Hanley Ramirez-type SS?

Klaw

(1:33 PM)

 

I don't see that at all.

Greg (Milwaukee)

 

Why no love for Jonathan Lucroy?

Klaw

(1:52 PM)

 

No star potential. Fringe-average everyday catcher, chance to be average?

Todd ((WI))

 

Any Brewers pitching prospects even close to the top 100?

Klaw

(1:35 PM)

 

Arnett and Odorizzi could make the list next year.

Paul (Richfield, WI)

 

Can Zack Braddock be an effective major league reliever? He had quite a year in 2009.

Klaw

(2:00 PM)

 

Yes, I believe he can, probably this year.

Jack (Chicago)

 

Why is Escy from Mil so low? I thought he would at least be in top 25.

Klaw

(2:20 PM)

 

Good

defensive shortstop who should hit for some average, walk once a week,

and not hit for power, and I don't love his makeup. Good player. Not a

star for me.

Nate (Philly)

 

Keith,

who's the better prospect: Starlin Castro or Alcides Escobar? Castro

has more with the bat, but Escobar is a premium defender, and he's in

the ML now. Thanks.

Klaw

(2:24 PM)

 

Ryan: No. Nate: Castro. Much, much higher ceiling.

Eric (berwerscubs.com)

 

Have

read other scouts who have said that Escobar could step in and be one

of the best defensive SS in the game right now, and have compared his

defense to Ozzie Smith. Are you as high on his defense?

Klaw

(2:25 PM)

 

Clearly not.

 

I asked him why he had Heckathorn so high, but he didn't answer. He really loves Starlin Castro, eh?

[TooLiveBrew]

He's way too high on Castro's bat imo. Either that, or he's the only prospect evaluator that correctly sees a 'special bat'.

[804Sox]

From what I've seen from Castro, I think his glove might be better than Escobar's too (which is saying something . . .). Really smooth at SS. I do think that he undervalues the fact that Escobar is ready to start in the majors RIGHT NOW though. It seems (from the chat) that the only think KLaw loves more than upside is himself . . .

 

All in all, some puzzling individual rankings, but it's one (very informed) man's opinion and nothing more

[TooLiveBrew]

It seems (from the chat) that the only thin[g] KLaw loves more than upside is himself . . .

 

Hah -- I saw a great quote from a poster on another fan forum regarding Law:

 

"Law has always, always, always marched to the beat of a different drummer when it came to rankings. Mid-year a few seasons ago he was talking about [Jose] Tabata as the potential #1 prospect in all of baseball. He gets drunk on hype and then smokes a bag of tools before making his lists."

[twobrewers]

Who here would have Brantley in the Brewers' top three prospects?

I'm sure Al would have had him at #1.

 

Glad to see some Peralta love.

 

While KLaw certainly is in love with Castro, I think he is pretty accurate on Escobar. I just don't see Escobar becoming much more than he already is. How high should you rank a good, but not great, player?

[Tedaldtada]

I am flabbergasted at people's opinion of Escobar's upside. I feel like he still has a lot to work on but he has improved pretty much every year since he was signed, why would he stop now? He is very athletic and smooth with a projectable body and very good bat speed. What am I missing here? I know his plate discipline is what many will point to, but pretty much every player gradually, and sometimes significantly, improves in this area. Another thing people say is his lack of power will never truly let him be an above average MLB (not just SS) hitter. He hits a lot of doubles and triples though, and will likely sprinkle in anywhere from 7-15 hr's. He will never slug .500, but at his peak, why can't he slug .425 or better? I just think Escobar could easily become exactly what Law has seen and predicted for Castro.

[kramnoj]

It is probably clear from Klaw's Escobar report, but I just thought this should be included, from his top 100 list:

 

"I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you. "

[804Sox]

It is probably clear from Klaw's Escobar report, but I just thought this should be included, from his top 100 list:

 

"I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you. "

The problem with this reasoning (on the part of Law) is that Escobar is exactly the type of player that is among the most valuable. He's capable of starting every day now, will be making the league minimum salary for at least 2 years, and will be cheap/cost controlled for most of the next 6 years. he offers well above average, possibly great, defense at one of the most critical defensive positions (and therefore lower offensive expectations) and has a very low probability of being a complete bust.

 

I doubt he ever hits 15 HR in a season though

[ILuvDaBush]

Well what's his ceiling for doubles? Brian Roberts has never been a HR hitter (though he does have much better plate discipline) and he's still a very good 2B, though he's quited aged.

[Tedaldtada]

Yea, I meant 15 as his peak possible total. I should say that no one thought Hanley would develop power either. Not saying he is Hanley good, but the projection is there (same body type at a young age). I know Hanley bulked up over the last few years, but Escobar will develop a man body too.

 

ILDB, I could see him hitting 30 doubles this year with 40-45 doubles in his peak years. I think you could probably count on 5+ triples as well.

Edit: I just wanted to say that there were some who thought Hanley would develop power. The statement I made was a little to general. There were many who thought he would never really hit though.

[TheCrew07]

I think that Escobar is limited only by how much work he's willing to put in. He's a very graceful and smooth athlete, I'm not talking about his fielding as much as I am about how he moves.

 

If you expect him to remain over 6 feet tall and just 180 lbs his entire career then you're right, he's pretty much all he's going to be. His plate discipline will hopefully improve over time, but he'll always be a low to mid .700s OPS guy. His frame could easily support another 20-25 lbs of muscle without impacting his flexibility, speed, and lateral mobility at all, so it's conceivable to me that he could hit 15-20 HRs at his peak. Will he ever get there? I have no idea,... Macha and the rest of the organization have made it clear that he should be like Willie Mays Hayes and just keep the ball on the ground and use his speed, but he'll have to change his offensive game as he gets older to remain viable as a starting SS offensively.

 

Personally I would never tell a player to limit his potential which is sort of what the organization has done with all this "use your speed" stuff. Do I want Alcides obsessing about becoming a better power hittter? Absolutely not, but I would encourage all of my players to become better athletes, and strength training is a critical pillar of athletic performance and injury prevention, regardless of the sport. I would think a small market team would have to be in the business of squeezing every last drop of potential out of every single player in the organization, especially the smallest market in the game.

[colbyjack]

I am flabbergasted at people's opinion of Escobar's upside. I feel like he still has a lot to work on but he has improved pretty much every year since he was signed, why would he stop now?

 

I agree. Escobar has gotten better and better as he has moved up, which is usually a good sign of even better things to come. I agree that he probably will never have much power, but he has changed from a complete light-weight to someone that can drive the ball over the fence from time to time. His patience needs work, but that's certainly not uncommon for a young hitter. It sounds to me that Law just doesn't care for Escobar for his own reasons, and I can't really argue against that.

 

And I don't see how Lucroy not having star potential should take that much away from his status as a prospect. He's still one of the better catching prospects out there, and just having a good all-around catcher, both offensively and defensively, is nothing to scoff at so easily.

 

Overall I do like Law's analysis. I find myself disagreeing with him a lot, and there are sometimes that he seems to get sloppy with his own analysis (as noted in 804Sox' assessment of why you would think Law would like Escobar more than he does). I remember before Brett Lawrie was drafted Law made a comment about how Lawrie's biggest question mark would be how well he translated to wood. Canadian players use wood bats, and that was after Lawrie went on his power binge (with a wood bat) playing against minor league and Dominican players during a Florida tour with a Canadian ballclub.

 

However, Law is well connected, and not only does he see a lot of these players on the field, both at the minor league and amateur level, but he also talks to a ton of people in the industry. He's also not shy about sharing his opinion, and that of course generates more interest.

[battlekow]

It sounds to me that Law just doesn't care for Escobar for his own reasons, and I can't really argue against that.

He hinted at it with the makeup comment, for sure.

 

Continuing the deluge of opinions, here are some Brewers-related snippets from Baseball America's prospects chat:

 

• [tt][/tt]

• [tt]Brett Lawrie (Milwaukee): When will i reach
  the majors and at what position? Can I keep my average above .280? Do I
  have 30 hr power or 40 in a good season?[/tt]

Jim Callis: Lawrie has a chance to stick at second

base but I suspect he'll be a right fielder in the long run. I see him

as more of a .300/25-homer type if he reaches his potential.

 

• [tt]Andy (New Jersey): Who are your picks for
  rookie of the year in both leagues? Who are the sleepers that come up
  and make big contributions? Love the day of chats!!! Great JOB[/tt]

John Manuel: JOB? Jorb? J-o-r-b. Job. Anyway, Rookie

of the Year picks . . . I'm going Desmond Jennings in the American

League, even though I know he likely won't start the season in the big

leagues. Michael Taylor is a nice sleeper for Oakland, which could use

some offense. In the National, I don't see a ton of obvious candidates.

If he's eligible by MLB rules (I don't know the service time), I'd vote

Jason Heyward. I know, I know, call me crazy. My sleeper would be

Alcides Escobar, I think he'll be similar to Elvis Andrus but with

better numbers as a rookie, and I think he'll benefit from the

increased attention defense gets hese days. My NL sleeper would be Josh

Lindblom, who I could really see helping the Dodgers a lot as a power

bullpen guy. Just would have to rack up some saves to be the R.O.Y.,

and I don't see that.

 

• [tt]mike (minneapolis): Let's talk Brewers for a
  bit. We know that their "impact" superstars may be few, but not many
  other systems are deeper. For these four guys, so you see "sub", "solid
  regular" or "two-time All-Star" in their future?: Logan Schafer, Jake
  Odorizzi, Eric Arnett, Kentrail Davis[/tt]

John Manuel: I actually think several farm systems are

deeper but that's another question. I don't see all-stars among that

quartet. Schafer is a nice player who looks more like a second-division

regular, there's not an above-average tool there offensively. Odorizzi

and Arnett are interesting, Arnett's a bigger body but I like Odorizzi

and his athleticism a bit more. Davis is more solid regular for me as

well; not a lot of defensive value and he's going to have to hit a ton.

[TooLiveBrew]

Aren't the notes on Davis were that he has the potential to hit a ton? Not that Callis said he wouldn't, but iirc the upside on his bat is supposed to be really high.

[sveumrules]

I'm very curious about Davis this year. Let's say he goes out and hits 308/385/489 for Appleton this year. I'd be encouraged. At the same time that is Gindl's current career line, only Caleb will be in AA this year, has 2 1/2 succesful minor league seasons under his belt, is similar statured/handed as Kentrail and also 2 months YOUNGER.

[Tedaldtada]

I think Davis' upside/ceiling for Appleton should be about .325/.400/.475. If he does that, we will see a much improved Appleton team. I love the Gindl love though. He should rake in Huntsville unless they are rained out every two days again.

[battlekow]

Kevin Goldstein's list (five-star prospects are top-50 in baseball, four-star top-100):

Five-Star Prospects

1. Alcides Escobar, SS

Four-Star Prospects

2. Brett Lawrie, 2B

Three-Star Prospects

3. Mat Gamel, 3B

4. Wily Peralta, RHP

5. Cody Scarpetta, RHP

6. Jon Lucroy, C

7. Eric Arnett, RHP

8. Kyle Heckathorn, RHP

9. Kentrail Davis, OF

10. Angel Salome, C

Two-Star Prospects

11. Logan Schafer, OF

Four More:

12. Mark Rogers,

RHP

13. Caleb Gindl, OF

14. Jake Odorizzi, RHP

15. Zach Braddock, LHP

 

The Sleeper: A fourth-round pick in 2006, right-hander Evan Anundsen throws strikes with an effective three-pitch mix. He could develop into a dependable back-end rotation starter.

Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (Born 4/1/84 or later)

 

1. Prince Fielder, 1B

2. Yovani Gallardo, RHP

3. Alcides Escobar, SS

4. Carlos Gomez, CF

5. Brett Lawrie, 2B

6. Mat Gamel, 3B

7. Wily Peralta, RHP

8. Cody Scarpetta, RHP

9. Jon Lucroy, C

10. Eric Arnett, RHP

 

It's easy to forget just how young Fielder is, as we could be talking

about a 30-year-old who already has 350-400 career home runs five years from now.

Gallardo is an ace in the making, and he’s arguably the one person on

the Brewer roster they could least afford to lose, as he's the only

member of the rotation that scares other teams. What does one do with

Gomez, a career .246/.292/.346 hitter who nonetheless still has

dazzling tools? PECOTA

doesn't seem to know either, as it’s projecting a small step forward in

2010, but his list of comparable players is loaded with superstars. I'm

willing to let my bet ride on the tools for now.

Summary: While the Brewers have had one of the

more productive farm systems of late, that well of talent has run a bit

dry, while their architect packed up for a general manager job in

Seattle. There's young talent that has the ability to step forward in

2010, but now some of it needs to do so.

 

[battlekow]

Some choice quotes from Goldstein to stimulate discussion:

[Lawrie]'s downright awful [at second], with below average range and agility, and many scouts remarked

about his lack of effort defensively, forecasting a move to left field

down the line. Lawrie has a mature build, and he could end up being a

below-average runner. His arm is average at best.

The Brewers dangled Gamel in the trade market in the offseason, with few real bites.

Scarpetta has average to a tick above-average velocity, sitting at

90-91, sometimes touching 93, but it's his curveball that makes him

special, as it's the best in the system—a true 12-6 breaker that

generates some embarrassing swings from opponents.

The Brewers hope that Arnett can show them enough this spring to earn a

full-season assignment at High-A, where he'll join Peralta and

Scarpetta in a prospect-laden rotation.

Path to the Big Leagues: [schafer]’s closer than one might think.

He has advanced command and control for his age, but Odorizzi’s stuff has yet to take the expected step forward.

[TooLiveBrew]

Awesome stuff, battlekow; thanks for sharing.

[804Sox]

I think rating Odorizzi and Braddock as 2-star is a bit conservative, especially given KG's brief analysis of each.

[logan82]

I am still having a hard time wrapping my head around how down everybody is on Gamel. He had a bad last half after only getting irregular playing time when he was in the majors. Yeah his defense isn't great, but that isn't anything new.

[Mike]

Some choice quotes from Goldstein to stimulate discussion:

[Lawrie]'s downright awful [at second], with below average range and agility.

I tend to agree with Goldstein. Perhaps not awful, but certainly not Craig Biggio like. His hands are not soft and his range is limited having seen him play last ST and in Appleton, overall maybe 5 times. This ST will be interesting to see how he performs at Big League Camp. As I have stated before, they are going to have to find a new defensive home for him and I do not know where nor do I have a suggestion.

 

 

[TheCrew07]

I've been stewing on that quote for a while, especially the agility part, and honestly I think that's garbage. Was he the smoothest guy in the league turning 2? No, but I wouldn't expect him to be yet either. However his athleticism was evident and on display every time I saw him play last season. In fact in one of the videos I linked last year of a pitcher you can see him make a very athletic stab between the pitcher's mound and 2nd base. He's not a natural defensively, he didn't get to some balls I thought he should have, but he is toolsy enough that if he puts his work in like Weeks he could certainly play the position.

[homer]

Can someone tell me what Keith Law has gotten right? It seems to me that if you could gamble on prospects, the safe money would be to always bet the opposite of what he says. Maybe I'm wrong, but it just seems the guy is never right (the glaring example was him chastising the Brewers for signing Hoffman last year).

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, I agree with homer. Law seems to whiff quite a bit.