Prospect List Discussion

[And That]

John Manuel put the Brewers' minor league system somewhere in the 6-15 range.

[battlekow]

Fangraphs' Marc Hulet lists his top 10 Brewers propsects:

 

01. Escobar

02. Lawrie

03. Gamel

04. Braddock

05. Lucroy

06. Odorizzi

07. Scarpetta

08. Anundsen

09. Peralta

10. Salome

 

He likes the pitchers more than the outfielders, basically, and Anundsen at #8 is a little interesting.

[TooLiveBrew]

How can Hulet justify leaving Arnett off that list?

[And That]

He doesn't put any 2009 draftees/international signees on his top 10 lists.

 

I have to hand it to Hulet - he does his homework on all 30 organizations' prospects. That said, it's impossible for one guy to know all 30 farm systems with much or any depth, so I imagine none of his 30 lists would be considered authoritative. Which is not to say it's not a fun read.

[battlekow]

Baseball America's John Manuel has Escobar as the 17th-best prospect in baseball.

[Tedaldtada]

Thought I should mention it... http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2010/269334.html

 

Jim Callis names Alcides Escobar to his All-Prospect team as the 9th hitter and starting SS. He also notes that Brett Lawrie is the best 2B prospect in the league but he still decided to shift Starlin Castro over to 2B for his team.

 

Choosing Ackley over Smoak or Morrison is a stretch for me right now. Drabek and Kelly are overrated as well. I know Kelly can throw strikes and hit the corners doing it, but his stuff won't ever let him be a #1. Even Maddux and Glavine used to sit very comfortably in the 92-94 range, so don't throw that comp. at me. From what I have heard, Kelly at his best is 92. Maybe 804 Sox knows better about his gun readings? I would have def. swung Feliz into the rotation and put Drew Storen in as the closer. For the other starting pitcher, I likely would have taken Jarrod Parker, but his status is up in the air with injury now.

 

How about Christian Friedrich?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=friedr001chr

 

He is a lefty with Manny Parra type stuff. In 167 IP he has 224 K's and 58 BB's and he has given up only 9 hr's. He is a couple years older than Kelly, but he is progressing impressively still.

 

Kelly is right up there, but he just seems overhyped while guys like Friedrich get very little national hype.

[battlekow]

I agree that Kelly is overhyped, but I think most people project him to add ~3 mph to his fastball by the time he's done filling out. That said, you can't just ignore the strikeout rate.

[colbyjack]

It seems as though Callis assembled that team by looking at his own overall top prospect list and plucked the players one-by-one until he had enough players to fill out a lineup, rotation and back-end of a bullpen. He does have the tendency to over-hype Red Sox prospects, since he handles their lists and is also a frequent visitor at the Sons of Sam Horn fan-site, as I'm a little surprised that Kelly would be the 5th or 6th best starting pitching prospect in all of baseball. I would probably lean more towards Jeremy Hellickson or Wade Davis for that spot given their stuff and success towards the upper levels of the minors in recent years.

 

I'm mildly surprised he has Ackley rated as a better prospect overall than Smoak, but Smoak did struggle after a AAA promotion, and Ackley was the second overall pick that projects to be an amazing pure hitter (and a good spot for the #2 spot in his batting order).

[804Sox]

Choosing Ackley over Smoak or Morrison is a stretch for me right now. Drabek and Kelly are overrated as well. I know Kelly can throw strikes and hit the corners doing it, but his stuff won't ever let him be a #1. Even Maddux and Glavine used to sit very comfortably in the 92-94 range, so don't throw that comp. at me. From what I have heard, Kelly at his best is 92. Maybe 804 Sox knows better about his gun readings? I would have def. swung Feliz into the rotation and put Drew Storen in as the closer. For the other starting pitcher, I likely would have taken Jarrod Parker, but his status is up in the air with injury now.

 

Kelly is right up there, but he just seems overhyped while guys like Friedrich get very little national hype.

I am equally puzzled with his choosing Ackley over Smoak, but I wanted to talk about Casey Kelly for a minute.

 

I think a lot of people are unsure of where he should rank as a prospect. He has dominated the low minors while being young for the league at each stop, and scouts rave about his mound presence, feel for pitching, refined off speed pitches, and command. Unfortunately, he sits in the low 90's currently and doesn't have the velocity needed to have a great fastball at the big league level. Accordingly, unless he adds a couple MPH to the FB, his ceiling could be as #2/#3. The problem is, Kelly already excels at the skills that most young pitcher develop last - he has great command, feel for his changeup, and holds runner well - so he's hard to project because it's impossible to tell how far pitchability can take a prospect. Guys with his cieling at his age rarely get top prospect consideration, yet he's dominated the minors like players with higher ceilings do, and has a (somewhat) unique set of skills.

 

I'm personally of the opinion that he'll add a bit of velo. He's got a good pitcher's frame, and the Sox have a really good track record with guys HS pitchers adding velocity. Lester sat in the low 90s (92ish) when he entered the system, and now is one of the hardest throwing LH in the game (I think he averaged around 96 mph this season). Also, in his single inning of work in the futures game, Kelly had it up to 95-96 mph, and it's possible he could sustain velocity in the 94-95 range with added strength and conditioning. If he's sitting 94 with the same ground ball tendencies, command, and feel for offspeed pitches I think he could be a #1, but it's impossible to tell.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Hardball Times just posted a Top 10 prospects list for the Brewers:

 

1. Alcides Escobar: Escobar will have a long career in the major leagues based on his Gold Glove potential at shortstop alone. His bat continues to make progress every year, but his limited power will put a cap on his bat potential. He could become a .300 hitter, however, and his speed will be an asset. If defense carries any weight in today's game, Milwaukee may even have an All-Star on its hands.

2. Brett Lawrie: While he hasn't found a permanent position yet, Lawrie's bat will play anywhere. He has plus bat speed and a consistent, powerful swing. He will turn 20 by the time the new season hits, but his bat is refined beyond his years. He could be a top-10 prospect in all of baseball by this time next year.

3. Caleb Gindl: I have a hard time finding people who agree with me on Gindl. The scouting reports and his body type are strikes against him, but he has some sneaky speed, thunder in his bat, and a great work ethic. His 2010 Double-A season could be his mainstream breakout.

4. Jonathan Lucroy: Lucroy is another under-the-radar Brewers prospect, but he brings a strong combination of skills to the ballpark. His defense is adequate behind the plate, leaving his bat-namely his superb plate discipline and average power-as his calling card. He could be a future above-average catcher.

5. Eric Arnett: The scouting reports aren't off the charts, but Arnett has great sinking action in his repertoire and has a history of missing bats. His command needs some work, but he has a great shot to be a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

6. Zach Braddock: Braddock posted a quietly dominating 2009 out of the pen, and his slider is a plus offering. It will be interesting to see whether he is destined to work out of the back end of the bullpen or whether his durability concerns are behind him and the rotation in his future.

7. Angel Salome: Salome is an odd prospect in that if he can't play catcher, his size and skill set will not lend themselves to any other position. Yet, he works hard at his defense, and if catcher remains in his future, and everything works out right, his bat, which is inconsistent right now, could be exceptional.

8. Mark Rogers: It remains to be seen whether Rogers' injury history is truly behind him, but 2009 was a promising stepping stone. What keeps me coming back is his electric fastball that, despite the injuries, still sits comfortably in the mid-90s.

9. Wily Peralta: Peralta has a great fastball but little else to work with. His command and delivery are also works in progress, but his strong 2009 stats are a great jumping-off point.

10. Jake Odorizzi: Cody Scarpetta was a tough cut, but Odorizzi has a vast repertoire that I can't turn down. Milwaukee has been cautious with him thus far, but I can't wait to see his full-season debut.

Really not sure why Gamel was just flat-out omitted.

[trwi7]

I would imagine they're using the MLB rules for rookie status which is 130 at bats or 45 days on the active roster during the 25 player limit which would eliminate Gamel from being a rookie.

[colbyjack]

This is the time of year where you really start to appreciate what Baseball America does, because they really are unmatched in their prospect knowledge. How Gamel is left off without even an explanation, how Arnett's stuff was largely vanilla-ized and how Peralta "has a great fastball but little else to work with" are glaring errors that shows the writer didn't thoroughly do his homework.

[Tedaldtada]

Glaring omissions and lack of research aside, I am just happy someone else is giving Gindl some love. This is where I get confused though; he says Gindl's body and scouting reports are bad, but aren't his scouting reports only bad because of his body? From everything else I can tell, he has a quick bat, short stroke, cannon arm, and decent speed and really the only thing I ever see criticized is his stature. Maybe my idea of 'scouting reports' is off...

[battlekow]

This is where I get confused though; he says Gindl's body and scouting reports are bad, but aren't his scouting reports only bad because of his body? From everything else I can tell, he has a quick bat, short stroke, cannon arm, and decent speed and really the only thing I ever see criticized is his stature. Maybe my idea of 'scouting reports' is off...

It's related to his stature, but most people seem to see Gindl as a tweener: doesn't quite have the glove for center or the bat for a corner. His stature limits his power upside as a corner outfielder, though there are obviously Brian Giles-shaped exceptions.

[battlekow]

Jim Callis names Alcides Escobar to his All-Prospect team as the 9th hitter and starting SS. He also notes that Brett Lawrie is the best 2B prospect in the league but he still decided to shift Starlin Castro over to 2B for his team.

Callis may like Escobar better than Castro, but Keith Law doesn't:

Steve (Chicago): A. Escobar Or S. Castro

Klaw (1:55 PM): Castro.

Brian (Madison): Not liking Escobar's bat?

Klaw (1:57 PM): He doesn't walk and isn't going to hit for power. Castro's bat is special.

[TooLiveBrew]

How reliable are blanket statements like "He doesn't walk and isn't going to hit for power", & "Castro's bat is special"? Has Callis actually seen Castro & Escobar play enough, first-hand, that these kinds of statements mean anything?

[battlekow]

It was Keith Law, not Jim Callis, making those remarks, and as for whether Law's seen them, I'm sure he has. Whether or not he's seen them enough to draw those conclusions, I don't know. I do know that he's fond of making (overly) bold statements and not dithering.

[804Sox]

I definitely think Starlin's got the better bat, but that's the first I've heard that it was in any way "special" or spectacular. He's hit pretty well at each level, while being young for the league. In any case, both seem to be known more for their glovework. I watched a bunch of video of Castro playing in the AFL and he looked really smooth defensively, and observation echoed by most scouting reports. Watching him take infield practice with Jose Iglesias was unbelievable.

[TooLiveBrew]

I thought John Sickels summed up my feelings quite nicely in terms of Mat Gamel in his Jan. 4th Brewers Top 20 prospects list.

 

Mat Gamel, 3B, Grade B- : His stock has slipped some, but it is fashionable to bash him right now and I think people are getting too negative. Still just 24, power upside remains highly impressive.

It's easy to be a bit down on Gamel, but imo that's more due to Fielder's & Braun's relatively instant success at the MLB level. We seem to overlook that Gamel basically matched the league-avg. slash line for third basemen, and did so with the added hurdle of sporadic playing time... and I'm sure everyone remembers how well he performed when he actually did start (small sample of course, but imo a bit telling).

[TheCrew07]

I thought this was off the mark... how are Rivas and Anundsen comparable as prospects?

 

15) Amaury Rivas, RHP, Grade C+: Looks like a prospect as an inning-eater type.

18) Evan Anundsen, RHP, Grade C+: Another strike-throwing inning eater, overlooked due to other arms in the system.

[battlekow]

Keith Law has the Brewers system 26th overall (Insider):

They have a few moderately high-ceiling bats but very little in the way

of pitching, which seems to be sort of a chronic problem for this

organization. Eric Arnett and Jake Odorizzi do offer some hope on the

mound, but both are probably a few years off.

I have to say, that's a little surprising.

[804Sox]

agreed. I think that they're underrating the system's depth in the bottom half of the top 20.

[TooLiveBrew]

Law also has the Red Sox as the #2 system in all of MLB, which as best I can tell is a gross overstatement. Baseball America has them in the "#6-#15" range.

[804Sox]

Law also has the Red Sox as the #2 system in all of MLB, which as best I can tell is a gross overstatement. Baseball America has them in the "#6-#15" range.

which is particularly strange because depth/high ceiling players in the lower levels is the strength of the Red Sox system too. However, I don't think you'll find a better 21-40 or 41-60 than the Red Sox have. The depth is truly amazing. Still, definitely not worthy of the #2 spot over the likes of the Rays. Haven't looked closely enough to rank everyone, but I would guess that I would put the Sox at around 7 or 8 with the Brewers in the 15ish-18ish range

[battlekow]

Law just released his top 100 & organizational top 10's. He's got Lawrie 47th:

Lawrie hit well in the Midwest League for a 19-year-old, and if he had

a clear position he might have spent the second half in high-A. The

Brewers did move him up two levels in mid-August, after which he

scuffled. Lawrie has a good swing, almost a classic left-handed swing

but from the right side, with tremendous rotation and raw power. I've

seen him overstride in BP, but he quiets down a little in games, still

taking all-out swings but with such a good swing path that he covers

the plate and struggles only with changing speeds. He's an intense,

aggressive, "one-speed" player who might benefit from dialing it down a

notch every now and then, and the lack of finesse in his game is part

of what holds him back as an infielder. He played all over as an

amateur but settled on second in part because he thought he had a

faster path to the majors there. There's still a realistic chance he'll

have to move to first or an outfield corner, limiting his projected

value.

...and Escobar 54th:

Escobar today is pretty close to what he's going to be at his peak -- a

plus defensive shortstop who makes contact, without secondary skills.

Escobar has good range and makes solid reads at shortstop with good

footwork, so he can turn plays quickly and is solid on the DP. His

swing is short and he generates good bat speed, squaring up

above-average fastballs, but his recognition of breaking balls needs

work. His 34 unintentional walks in 2009 represented a new career high.

He hits balls hard to the gaps but won't ever have more than

fringe-average power, and he needs to reduce his tendency to lengthen

his swing to try to pull the ball out. Instead, he should stick with

his whole-field approach and use the off field when he falls behind.

He's a 65-70 runner (on the 20-80 scale) who runs the bases well, with

strong stolen-base percentages the last two years. He should be

entrenched as Milwaukee's shortstop for the next four to six years

because of the value he'll add with his glove.

Incidentally, Michael Brantley is 71st. Who here would have Brantley in the Brewers' top three prospects? The rest of Law's Brewers top 10:

 

3. Eric Arnett, RHP

 

4. Kyle Heckathorn, RHP

 

5. Jon Lucroy, C

 

6. Wily Peralta, RHP

 

7. Lorenzo Cain, CF

8. Jake Odorizzi, RHP

 

9. Kentrail Davis, LF

 

10. Zach Braddock, LHP

 

Strange that he chose to highlight Odorizzi in the Brewers blurb when he's got Heckathorn and Peralta higher.