Prospect List Discussion

[jackalope02ca]

You could argue that Salome deserves a top 10 spot. However he has a lot of negatives going right now. First and foremost is he has been passed by Lucroy and doesn't project well at any other position. That alone diminishes his value a lot. Also he was hurt a lot last year and you can never take away the positive test and suspension. Overall it hasn't been so much that Salome has dissapointed more that others have stepped up or show more projectability at this point. Salome still has a decent shot at being a major leaguer but he really needs to step up this year if he is ever going to have an impact. Without knowing all the reasons I question why he's not playing winter ball either. Would seem to be the logical thing to do for a player in his position.

[twobrewers]

Braddock?

 

How much is he being downgraded because his immediate future is in the bullpen?

[colbyjack]

What I'm talking about is the Brewers making it obvious that they don't especially value him, which weakens their position in any trade involving him.

 

I understand your point. I don't see how the Brewers under-value Salome. Comparing him to Hardy doesn't work for me since they were in a tough position in which Hardy's trade value was clearly low, and that has nothing to do with how the team valued him.

 

And I would argue that Baseball America hasn't necessarily under-valued Salome or Gindl. They are the first to admit that both are unorthodox players for their size alone, yet they ranked Salome the Brewers' fifth best prospect a year ago and their eighth best two years ago. In addition, Salome was rated the PCL's 18th best prospect this past year and the Southern League's 17th best prospect after the 2008 season. I would say that is some pretty good recognition for him.

 

Same for Gindl, who was rated the 16th best prospect in the FSL this best year (a loaded league) and the 18th best prospect in the Sally league last year.

 

It's interesting how many people are coming to Salome's defense when so many seem to be suggesting we should trade him this offseason and hand Lucroy a big-league roster spot next spring. I really think it's a bad idea to part with either one, as that kind of depth at a difficult position to find talent at is a very good problem to have.

 

Kentrail Davis is a little different story. He is an impact performer offensively that could have been a first-round pick this past year or after his senior year in high school. He may be short, but his tools jump out at you.

[logan82]

I think the thought of parting with Solome has more to do with wanting to acquire SP, our sucky MLB catchers overt the last decade(?) or so and having another solid minor league prospect more than anything to do with any indictment of Solome. The only thing it says to me is that people think Lucroy is a safer prospect than Solome, not a better one. Solome seems to have a much higher upside with a much lower downside. Lucroy seems to look like a slighty below average player at worst with a smaller upside.

[igor67]

I think it's the praise pattern that I find confusing from the Brewers. I can completely understand if they felt that Lucroy jumped Salome in prospect status this year. But Salome's tools for catcher are still great, and he has produced recently. The lack of them saying he had an off year, but we still think he can be both a complete catcher and an offensive force (or something like that) puzzles me. From the outside it looks like a very substantial downgrade.

[dadofandrew]

Other than the fact managers vote for one and Tom H the other, how can the 18th best prospect in thew PCL not be in the Crew's top 10?

 

I think Salome has a much higher ceiling than Lucroy, but Lucroy is more certain to have a big league career.

[twobrewers]

Again, not to divert the thread...

 

But I don't believe Tom Haudricourt does much more than "compiles" this list based on discussions with people in the Milwaukee Brewers organization. We all know that Tom doesn't actually "scout" these players - so I always take the list as "Top 10 Prospects the Milwaukee Brewers are Excited About".

[JohnBriggs12]

Tom H has his top 30 on his blog this morning. Among the highlights: Schafer at 12, Salome at 15, Gindl at 17, D'Vontrey Richardson (09 round 5) at 18, Farris at 19 (finally some respect), Jeffress down to 21. Lots of young pitching in the 21-30 group.

 

I'm looking forward to seeing what Richardson can do on the field.

[battlekow]

Link to the Top 30 blog post, and the full list:

 

1. SS Alcides Escobar

2. 2B Brett Lawrie

3. 3B Mat Gamel

4. RHP Eric Arnett

5. C Jonathan Lucroy

6. OF Kentrail Davis

7. LHP Zach Braddock

8. OF Lorenzo Cain

9. RHP Jake Odorizzi

10. RHP Kyle Heckathorn

11. RHP Mark Rogers

12. OF Logan Schafer

13. RHP Cody Scarpetta

14. RHP Wily Peralta

15. C Angel Salome

16. RHP Amaury Rivas

17. OF Caleb Gindl

18. OF D'Vontrey Richardson

19. 2B Eric Farris

20. 3B Taylor Green

21. RHP Jeremy Jeffress

22. LHP Del Howell

23. RHP John Axford

24. RHP Josh Butler

25. RHP Alex Periard

26. RHP Evan Anundsen

27. RHP Brooks Hall

28. OF Max Walla

29. RHP Nick Bucci

30. RHP Maverick Lasker

[Herm]

As discussion point, I've added current P50 rating

 

1. SS Alcides Escobar (1)

2. 2B Brett Lawrie (3)

3. 3B Mat Gamel (2)

4. RHP Eric Arnett (6)

5. C Jonathan Lucroy (4)

6. OF Kentrail Davis (12)

7. LHP Zach Braddock (7)

8. OF Lorenzo Cain (9)

9. RHP Jake Odorizzi (19)

10. RHP Kyle Heckathorn (14)

11. RHP Mark Rogers (16)

12. OF Logan Schafer (13)

13. RHP Cody Scarpetta (15)

14. RHP Wily Peralta (10)

15. C Angel Salome (5)

16. RHP Amaury Rivas (23)

17. OF Caleb Gindl (11)

18. OF D'Vontrey Richardson (not ranked)

19. 2B Eric Farris (43)

20. 3B Taylor Green (8)

21. RHP Jeremy Jeffress (21)

22. LHP Del Howell (37)

23. RHP John Axford (30)

24. RHP Josh Butler (18)

25. RHP Alex Periard (24)

26. RHP Evan Anundsen (17)

27. RHP Brooks Hall (36)

28. OF Max Walla (27)

29. RHP Nick Bucci (25)

30. RHP Maverick Lasker (44)

 

Big "movers"

Salome -10

Odorizzi +10

Lasker +14

Howell +15

Green -12

Farris +24

[colbyjack]

Here's the picture on BA's homepage today:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/aescobar09428309jw.jpg

 

I always contend that the top prospect list shouldn't really be a hot sheet, so I would contend that there is no reason for not only Salome to fall as far as he did, but also Caleb Gindl and Taylor Green. I too wish that BA had all of their top prospect lists correspond with one another a little better, as it's hard to figure out how Salome and Gindl in particular, who both made the top 20 lists in the PCL and FSL respectively, are as low as they are.

 

TH chats at 12:30. I don't even think I'll bother with any questions as we're not likely to learn anything we didn't already know.

 

And I can guarantee that Richardson will be ranked the next time we edit the P50.

[TheCrew07]

I don't see any problem with Salome not in the top 10, he rarely plays baseball. He's not playing winterball even though he deserately needs experience and the organization has publically stated their desire for their prospects to play winterball. He's constantly hurt, and the odds of that changing aren't too good as he continues to over-work with the weights instead of increasing his flexibility, especially important for a player with back problems. He seems to be more concerned about looking good in T-shirts than playing baseball. I hope he grows up and commits to being a ballplayer soon, so it benefits the Brewers. His work ethic, if directed in the right direction, could make a very interesting ballplayer.

 

 

Throwing Dykstra (yes I know I've been biased against him from the start) into the top 10 last year after a pretty mediocre campaign in Helena was laughable in my opinion,

By mediocre do you mean one of the best offensive seasons a Brewers HS draft pick has had in the Pioneer League?

 

 

Heckathorn has great upside, but so does Frederickson, and in the grand scheme of Brewer pitching prospects there is no way I would agree he's our 4th best pitching prospect today,

True, but Heckathorn was a much more effective pitcher in college, and doesn't have nearly the severe mechanical issues Frederickson has.

 

 

The player that I'm suprised isn't in the top 10 is Mark Rogers. Theres still so much upside there, and its attainable.

X I respect your opinions as much as anyone on the forums but I just don't get the hype for Dykstra. A .768 OPS isn't impressive for the PL, high school player or not, in fact anything less than high .700s/low 800s is going to give me pause for a high round pick. Dykstra was supposed to be relatively polished offensively, but he's without a defensive position.... and in fact, he doesn't play competent defense anywhere on the diamond. I actually like Garfield more than Dykstra even though he had that horrible slump. He was also pushed aggressively, struggled at the plate and a some in the field, but we knew he very raw coming out of the draft and many were surprised by his aggressive placement to Helena. Also, Lenny got bye mostly on his determination and PEDs, and I just don't see the best part of Lenny's game, the attitude, transferring to the son and making him a success. I've coached plenty of young men in a similar situation where the father wasn't the most talented player but was a beast because of his attitude, and I don't recall a single instance where the son became a similar player, it doesn't work that way. We just raise children differently now but that's a much larger topic which will hijack the thread, so I just wanted to mention it in passing and not focus on it. I've just always been uncomfortable with the Lenny to Cutter comparisons because I haven't personally seen it work that way... I'm not saying it's impossible for Cutter to be successful, I've just never saw Cutter being successful in the same manner that his father was. I guess the best examples I can think of are Bonds and Griffey, both had successful fathers come before them, but both were better players than their fathers with a different approach, they weren't the same players their fathers were. I see Dykstra more along the lines of a Rose... both had fathers that made a name for themselves on the intangibles, but it's very difficult to duplicate that sort of success.

 

I see Dykstra as a Brent Brewer lite.... Brent plays a tougher position defensively (poorly), isn't as polished at the plate, but has greater upside tools wise, Brewer is just a better natural athlete than Dykstra. Coming into the 2009 season where did Dykstra fit in the OF that he was worthy of being in the top 10? Does he have more upside than Cain for an example who's outhit him at the same point in their careers thus far? Like I said I realize I'm biased against the pick because I've disliked the selection from Day 1, at the time I didn't realize how toolsy Cutter was, but he is a much better athlete than I gave him credit for initially. However just because a player is toolsy and has a name doesn't mean he deserves to be rated the 7th best prospect in the system after his first short season. He wasn't so outstanding at the plate like Lawrie that he has the potential to be an impact player, he's just not on that same level. By the same token I think Davis should have been a bit lower out of the gate as well, generally I don't split hairs on a couple of placements here and there, but I'd rather a guy performs in some capacity before getting into the top 10. Cutter didn't even make Tom's top 30 this year... if he was properly placed in the top 10 last season there's simply no way he wouldn't have been a top 30 player this year, regardless of how messed up his life outside of baseball is right now.

 

As far as Heckathorn goes, I like the selection, but I stand by my opinion that he's not our 4th best pitching prospect today. It's not that I don't think he's a top 10 prospect down the road, but like you I wonder how Braddock can make the list and Rogers doesn't? I see that Rogers came in at 11 on the blog, but he has a similar arm to Heckathorn, more polish, and will pitch next season at AA. If Braddock is deserving of a top 10 then so is Rogers, Arnett and Heckathorn are much farther away and aren't necessarily more projectable, nor have they had success above R+ yet.

[battlekow]

A .768 OPS isn't impressive for the PL, high school player or not, in fact anything less than high .700s/low 800s is going to give me pause for a high round pick.

This doesn't detract from your overall point in any way, but in the interest of correctness, Dykstra actually OPSed .805 in the Pioneer League in 2008; the .768 is overall.

 

To address the actual issue: it's tough to tell what exactly happened to Dykstra last year. Obviously at least some of his problems were due to mental anguish, but that effect is impossible to quantify and thus difficult to discuss without turning the conversation into amateur psychology hour. I don't think he belongs on any Brewers prospect list at the moment, but I think that there's so much unknown here that everyone should at least reserve the possibility that Dykstra bounces back next year to become a decent prospect again. Basically, while last season was not positive in any regard, I'm willing to give him a mulligan; if he produces next year, I wouldn't hesitate to write off 2009 as simply a star-crossed season.

[TheCrew07]

I'm at work now, but I believe it was actually a .786 and I just typo'd it originally, but thanks for the correction, I usually make it a point to have my stats dead on. I didn't mean to suggest Cutter is a non prospect, I hope that's not the gist people took from my post, it's just I have never believed he was a top 10 prospect in the organization. We sort of have a bunch of these guys who are difficult to pigeon hole with any accuracy, and I do like Dykstra's upside more so than a Farris for example, who plays the same position. Part of that though is that I view Farris as a utility player without the utility, I'd feel better about him if they'd start moving him around the diamond some so he had some positional versatility as he moves up. As long as Lawrie is in the organization and is a 2B, with Escobar at SS,none of the other 2B in the system really have chance to play the middle IF as starters so their best bet is some kind of utility role. Right now the players with the most versatility in the organization are Heether, Sanchez (I believe he's a minor league FA), and Brownstein... I would really like to see players like Farris get some time around the diamond, I'd rather not end up with another Iribarren who seems like he could help the big club but doesn't have enough versatility at this point to be a true utility player. Dykstra is in that same boat, will he ever hit enough to be an every day player? I really don't know, he has more pop in his bat than both Farris and Iribarren, but he's been so bad defensively that he doesn't seem to be much of an asset up the middle at all. I really wish I would have gone to any T-Rat games before Dykstra got demoted last year as I'm largely going off of other people's opinions and what Chris and Steve have had to say about him on the broadcasts, I don't have any first hand observation to base my opinion off of. Typically I'll feel better about a player once I see him play if I'm having trouble with the hype.

[JohnBriggs12]

Just because a guy like Farris might not be the top 2B prospect in an organization doesn't mean he can't become an everyday 2B at the major league level somewhere hence he might possess more value keeping at one position than pigeonholing him at age 23 as a utility player. Obviously, the guy has tremendous base running skill and he was voted the best defensive 2B in the FSL. So for a lot of teams that could be enough to put him at the top at the 2B position. There's still plenty of time for him to be moved around the diamond as needs arise down the road. He's certainly not lacking for athleticism. One person's "utility guy" can be someone else's "2B of the future". Besides, there's no guarantee Lawrie will stay at 2B either.

[lithium75]

I have never been a fan of Cutter Dykstra either, but that is simply because I think his dad is a dingleberry. Maybe having a dingleberry for a father who was completely exposed as such publicly and whose lifestyle completely evaporated had something to do with Cutter's poor season?

[TheCrew07]

When I become concerned about developing players for another organization then I'll want players stacked up at a position without any versatility or flexibility. Until then Weeks is already stud, Lawrie has the potential to be a stud, Iribarren is a better hitter and very good defender, and Dykstra has more power than Farris.

 

I realize you're infatuated with him, but when Escobar and Iribarren have outhit him at higher levels it's very difficult for me to believe Farris would be anything more than a stop gap 2B for Milwaukee. Offensively Farris' only stand out tool is his base stealing, and he doesn't have the foot speed to maintain those numbers as he moves up.

[RobertR]

I'm generally of the belief that there's no such thing as a second level 2nd base prospect. If you're going to be a future utility man, you should be playing SS regularly in the minors. Or have a real stud SS prospect next to you. And if you project as a starter at 2B, it will show up in the hitting line.

 

To me, you can stop talking about 2B prospects in the Brewers organization once you get done with Lawrie.

 

Robert

[pingman]

I disagree....if the team can stockpile 2B, or any other position for that matter, it gives the organization ammunition for trades

 

Another stat I like about Ferris is that he rarely strikes out....

[dadofandrew]

2B in the low minors and college rarely make the bigs, as they are playing 2B for a reason, in most all cases. As Robert points out, unless they hit like crazy (Weeks, hopefully Lawrie), "2B prospect" is a misnomer.

[JohnBriggs12]

2B in the low minors and college rarely make the bigs, as they are playing 2B for a reason, in most all cases. As Robert points out, unless they hit like crazy (Weeks, hopefully Lawrie), "2B prospect" is a misnomer.

Belliard hit well but not "like crazy" in the minors and made it to the bigs where's he's had a long career. Luis Castillo had 1 HR in his entire minor league career and never played anything but 2B and he's got over 1,800 major league hits and 3 All Star appearances. Ray Durham had a career .753 minor league OPS, never played any position but 2B where he committed 30 errors in the minors one year, yet ended up with over 2,000 hits and made 2 All Star teams.

 

Should I go on?

 

Cano was no great shakes as a minor league hitter. Had a little power, but didn't hit much for average or have a high OBP. Yet he was permanently made a 2B at age 19.

 

Iribarren's been at least as good a minor league hitter as Belliard was. He's better than Durham and he's got considerably more gap power than Castillo.

[dadofandrew]

Belly was a SS they moved to 2B. That's how most 2B end up there, that's why oodles of SS's are drafted.

 

As for Hernan, he's got a sub 600 OPS if you use MLE's for his entire AAA time. .313/.353 for last year. He's soon to be entering his year of 26. If a place opens up for him to be a cheap PH, I would not be against it. Any talk of him as more than that, I feel is highly overvaluing him.

[battlekow]

Haudricourt's transcribed his BA chat on the JS blog.

[SoCalBrewfan]

2B in the low minors and college rarely make the bigs

 

...

 

Belly was a SS they moved to 2B.

 

If you're trying to prove your point, Belliard isn't a strong piece of supporting evidence. Ron Belliard played only a single game at short in the low minors...he got a few more games in AAA but not many. Gorman Thomas probably played more shortstop in the minor leagues than did Belliard. Belliard was indeed a shortstop in high school, but that doesn't mean a lot...as a pro he was never viewed as anything other than a second baseman.

 

Historically 2b has certainly not a place where you see a lot of prospects, but I think that's changed a bit, perhaps as offensive expectations have increased. In the very recent past, a bunch of guys like Weeks, Cano, Utley, Uggla, Orlando Hudson, and Howie Kendrick moved through the minors as 2b, never really being viewed as shortstops as I can recall. Durham, too, though that's a bit further back. In fact, there might be more guys in that category playing second in the bigs than there are 'failed' shortstops...Roberts, Felipe Lopez, Zobrist, and Aaron Hill are former SS that I can remember, but I can't think of a lot of others right off the top of my head. (I'm sure there are others, who will occur to me after I post.)

 

But in a broader sense the point stands, in the sense that a lot of minor league 2b have a combination of offensive and defensive skills that don't give them much of a fallback position....a failed 3b could play OF or 1b, a failed SS or CF might have several options, but most 2b have too little arm, range, and/or bat to fit anywhere else. That is part of the issue with Dykstra I think...seems like he failed his trial in CF, and from what I've read he doesn't have the arm for anything but 2b or one of the high-offense slots. This was definitely a lost year for him; he's certainly got time to remake his prospecthood, but he's got a lot to prove at this point.

 

Farris you might be tempted to put in a similar category, except that it sounds like he's got better defensive tools than most 2b, and could maybe have enough arm and range for short. I haven't seen the guy in person, but it sounds like he's not really blazing fast, but is still a great basestealer. Seems like he could in principle profile as a potential utility guy, or even a Chone Figgins / Mark Loretta type (i.e., a guy who is close enough to starting quality at multiple positions and plays enough at two or three spots to be essentially a regular player). If the Brewers see him that way, though, they aren't doing much to advance that goal...he has only played a handful of games at other positions as far as I can see.

 

I have to say that I am pleasantly surprised so far with the new draft era. It remains to be seen how these guys play out, but I'm happier with the first Seid draft than I was with the last Zduriencik draft...Jack Z had some nice picks but I always felt like he threw away decently high picks shooting for the moon on tools guys who were long shots to deliver on their promise (Brewer, Fredrickson, etc.). That second round in 08 looks pretty lousy right now, with Lintz, Dykstra, and Adams all falling out of the top 30 in one year if I'm reading right.

[RobertR]

Mark Ellis probably falls into the "failed SS" category.

 

Still, I think the point stands. A SS prospect works out at SS, can be converted to 2B if the glove isn't up to the task of starting, or can become a versatile utility infielder if the bat isn't up to the task of starting. There's little fallback position for a 2B prospect. Given the amount of relief pitchers that teams are now carrying, there's little use for a utility infielder that can't play SS (and/or CF) or hit like a corner infielder.

 

It's also worth noting that Farris will be 24 at AA next year while the likes of Belliard, Cano, Kinsler, Kendrick, Castillo, Utley, Durham, and Hudson were in the majors or getting cracks at the majors. He's more on the Mike Fontenot career path, a guy who might be out of a job in the spring, than a starting 2B path.

 

Obviously, if Farris hits at AA this year, he'll have some value. But he's running out of time and there's no evidence that he has the versatility to be anything more than a 2B. I'm all for stockpiling talent, but 2B is not the position I would concentrate on, as there's little fallback. At this point, I haven't seen enough from Farris to declare him part of the future. A low .700s OPS at High A, even with a really impressive steal total, doesn't convince me he has the bat to start given his age. And the versatility to backup is more unproven potential than reality at this point. All the same, I can see being somewhat optimistic about him and see no problem with promoting him until he fails or succeeds.

 

Robert