Prospect List Discussion

[colbyjack]

It's that time of the year again. Just when things get slow for baseball news, Baseball America starts their team-by-team top prospect lists. The National League is up first this year, starting with Jason Heyward and the Braves. Here is a link for all of the top prospect lists and corresponding chats:

 

Baseball America top prospect lists

 

Speaking of Heyward, he is one of the game's brightest young stars, and was a player many around these parts wanted the Brewers to add in the 2007 draft. It's hard to argue with LaPorta, who netted the Brewers Sabathia (and the playoffs), but it would be nice to have Heyward in the system as an impact left-handed bat the team could certainly use.

[colbyjack]

I didn't want to start a new thread on this, and since it was BA that came out with it, I thought I would place the story here. This picture graces BA's homepage today:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/mascots09428309.jpg

 

Some Teams Thrived In Tough Economy

 

The Perfect Partnership

 

The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers' record-breaking season had little to do with how they played the game, but rather who played it. It also proved once again, just like in Peoria and West Michigan, that affiliating with the hometown team pays off-quite literally.

 

In their first season since inking a player-development contract with the Brewers, the Timber Rattlers saw a 33 percent increase at the gate while drawing a club record 253,240 fans-all while fielding a team that finished third from the bottom in the Midwest League standings.

 

Losing had never been so much fun.

 

"This blew away our expectations," Wisconsin general manager Rob Zerjav said. "We anticipated a nice bump in attendance after signing the agreement with the Brewers, but we didn't expect to break an attendance record and all the things that came with it."

 

An interest in the team never before seen in Appleton, Wis., is what accompanied a partnership with the major league team located roughly 120 miles away. More than 100 fans showed up at Fox Cities Stadium last fall to cheer news of the affiliation at a joint Brewers-Timber Rattlers press conference-that wasn't open to the public. Offseason ticket sales were brisk, even though minor league baseball was approaching its first full season in the current economic downturn.

 

However the bellwether moment that tipped off Timber Rattlers' staff about the storm of fans approaching came in the days leading up to the season. Amazingly, Wisconsin had never sold out Opening Day-not once since joining the Midwest League in 1962. The closest came when the current 5,500-seat ballpark debuted in 1995 and 3,700 fans turned out for its christening. This year, Opening Day was sold out two days in advance.

 

"We knew then that this was going to be a special year," Zerjav said.

 

The Timber Rattlers didn't sit by idly. Emphasizing their partnership with the Brewers through a variety of promotions was key to keeping the turnstiles spinning.

 

Wisconsin's front-office staff traveled to Milwaukee last January to meet with Brewers officials and brainstorm promotions that could make the relationship a success for both clubs. One result was a package that included tickets to both a Brewers and Timber Rattlers game, and a commemorative T-shirt, for $15. More than 1,600 were sold.

 

Bobblehead giveaways of the clubs' mascots (Bernie the Brewer and Fang) were a hit, and a handshake at the preseason press conference between the pair became a symbol of the partnership and a marketing tool. Billboards promoting the Timber Rattlers new slogan, "New Crew, More Fun," dotted the path between Appleton and Milwaukee. Wisconsin brought in Paul Molitor for a night and sold the game out, creating the challenge of getting 5,000 fans an autograph from the Brewers Hall of Famer.

 

"We did anything and everything we could do to let people know we are a Brewers' affiliate," Zerjav said. "We became more of a statewide team."

[colbyjack]

The Brewers are due up a week from today. The Cubs get the nod today.

 

Cubs Top 10

 

I'll admit, I didn't really know much about Starlin Castro prior to today. I've always liked the philosophy of loading up on shortstops and eventually moving them elsewhere when they start to force the issue. Shortstops are usually the best athletes on the field, yet the players that are able to play the position at the MLB level both offensively and defensively are few and far between. While the Cubs are lacking in a true, impact bat, outside of Josh Vitters, they have a pretty nice collection of middle infielders, and a knack for getting the most out of them as evidenced with Theriot and Fontenot.

 

And this isn't meant to be a Cubs bash, but look at their top prospects and draft picks over the last decade. Corey Patterson, Mark Prior, Hee Seop Choi, Angel Guzman, Brian Dopirak and even Felix Pie. I know Pie was traded, but all of these players have failed to live up to their considerable hype. The top picks include Prior, Luis Montanez, Bobby Brownlie, Grant Johnson, Ryan Harvey and Mark Pawelek. Tyler Colvin still has some promise, but he looks more like a 4th OF type than a starter.

 

Which of course proves that there is always more than one way to build a system. They have made some shrewd trades to acquire the likes of Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Zambrano was a very strong international signee, but overall they have had difficult the past few years developing their own talent from within.

 

Let's hope that continues http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

[battlekow]

Pie actually was pretty good for the Orioles in the second half last year. He might have finally put it together. People are saying Castro > Escobar. I think Vitters is going to flame out. He may have an incredible hit tool, but he has absolutely no patience. You could argue that he should have been swinging at everything as long as he could hit .330, but he struggled in the FSL and still didn't take any walks. I mean, the guy walked 12 times last year.

[MJLiverock]

I don't know much about Castro either but I always take the hype surrounding the prospects of the Cubs with a grain of salt. They get a lot of attention because their Cubs and the fans like to talk them up but as the post by Colby shows, they tend to be a little over hyped.

 

I remember how guys like Bobby Hill, Ronny Cedeno, Jerome Walton, Lyle Mouton, etc. were going to be superstars in addition to the guys mentioned above. I remember arguing with a Cub fan about why I wouldn't trade Prince Fielder for Mouton when both were just breaking into the big leagues. He thought I was crazy because Fielder was fat and and Mouton was going to be a superstar.

 

Maybe the Pittsburgh Pirates should start rethinking getting Cub prospects as well since that hasn't worked out so great for them historically either.

[ILuvDaBush]

Has the Cubs system come so far as to be considered middle-of-the-pack now? Vitters is the epitome of the type of prospect who is overhyped in the Cubs' organization. I actually prefer Hak-Ju Lee to Starlin Castro (better defense). And their pitching is about as suspect as suspect gets. Chris Carpenter and Jay Jackson are their top pitching prospects (Cashner is bullpen fodder). I just have a hard time elevating them from being IMHO a bottom five farm system. Their safest prospect is probably Brett Jackson, and he was arguably a reach in this past year's draft.

[Tedaldtada]

Not that defending the Cubs makes me feel right, but Castro's D has been well regarded by all the scouts I have heard/read. If they do end up n the middle of the pack, it is only because they have two top 30 prospects in all of baseball (Castro and Vitters).

[804Sox]

Yeah, Starlin Castro is an AMAZING defensive SS - probably top 5 in the minors. I watched video of him taking infield practice in the AFL and it was one of the most beautiful things I've seen in my life.

 

Almost as smooth as Jose Iglesias http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[dadofandrew]

Pie was rushed in Chicago, he is back to his old self, playing great D (better than Jones, most believe) and hitting in BAL. He would have been a nice pickup before Gomez.

[battlekow]

Rattler Radio, "faster than the internet", has the Brewers top 10, along with some selected comments on players who could see time at Wisconsin next year.

[wibadgers23]

A couple of surprises for me - Salome not in the top 10, Odorizzi at #9 and Davis at #6. I didn't think those two would make the list, but I am really high on Odorizzi and am excited to see him pitch in Appleton next year.

[Herm]

From Hardricourt's blog - his comments:

[yoshii8]

I think its laughable that Salome is not in the top 10. I think his upside is way higher than people are giving him credit for, and he has produced at every level.

[marty22]

I agree with you Yoshii. Cain had a worse year due to injury, which is a big reason why salome struggled. If we're going to punish Salome (who i believe is younger that Cain, by the way), we have to do the same to Cain.

 

Also, surprised not to see Rogers up there.

[And That]

Here's the top 10 list, just for reference:

 

1.) Alcides Escobar

2.) Brett Lawrie

3.) Mat Gamel

4.) Eric Arnett

5.) Jonathon Lucroy

6.) Kentrail Davis

7.) Zach Braddock

8.) Lorenzo Cain

9.) Jake Odorizzi

10.) Kyle Heckathorn

 

I too find the exclusion of Salome odd. I'd put him ahead of Cain and Heckathorn without a second thought.

[nate82]

I don't see how you could put Cain over Schafer after the year that Schafer put up.

 

Player Name	Stat Type	Year	Bavg	Obp	Slg	OPS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HR	2B	R	RBI	SB
Lorenzo Cain	Minor	2009	.218	.294	.330	624	60	206	21	45	11	0	4	19	3	3	20	50	0.07	0.18	0.35	0.32	0.05
Logan Schafer	Minor	2009	.308	.370	.440	810	120	480	80	148	31	7	6	58	17	8	42	56	0.05	0.26	0.67	0.48	0.14

 

It will be interesting to see where BA put Schafer on the Brewers list. I definitely wouldn't have put either Cain or Schafer in the top 10 but I wouldn't put Cain above Schafer either.

[And That]

Cain has more tools than Schafer and has about 320 more PA above A-ball, so he's a little more advanced. I'm a big Logan Schafer fan and think he's the more solid bet, but I can see the argument in a list like this where tools/potential wins out.

[TheCrew07]

I don't see how TH has the ability to conduct a chat on the system's prospects when many people who post on this site are much more qualified to make a list and discuss the players at length. Anyone can sit down with Seid and say, "who do you like and why?" but it doesn't mean they are knowledgeable enough to conduct a decent chat about the prospects. BA's top 10 lists lost quite a bit of luster with me personally when I realized the beat writers like TH are largely responsible for them. It used to be one of my favorite features, I'm not sure exactly where I'd put it now.

 

BA has never, ever, liked Salome, I'm not surprised he's not on the list. Heckathorn and Davis.... based on what exactly? Both were fine picks, but I have a hard time with players being given instant top 10 status because of where they were drafted, it's not like this is 2001 and the system is devoid of prospects.. I'm probably not giving Davis enough credit but he hasn't done anything outside of college yet... if being toolsy and being drafted high means that much then why not slide Richardson into the list ahead of Cain? He's just as toolsy and every single report about him is glowing with praise. Heckathorn has great upside, but so does Frederickson, and in the grand scheme of Brewer pitching prospects there is no way I would agree he's our 4th best pitching prospect today, I wouldn't even agree that Arnett is the best pitching prospect in the system.

 

I would like some solid justification or even a solid thought process as to why he rates the players the way he does, but I doubt we'll get it out of his chat either, never mind his blog. Throwing Dykstra (yes I know I've been biased against him from the start) into the top 10 last year after a pretty mediocre campaign in Helena was laughable in my opinion, I see Dykstra as a poor man's Brent Brewer.

 

I really like Lo Cain, but this last season gave me pause, it will be interesting to see how things turn out.

[battlekow]

Cain has more tools than Schafer and has about 320 more PA above A-ball, so he's a little more advanced. I'm a big Logan Schafer fan and think he's the more solid bet, but I can see the argument in a list like this where tools/potential wins out.

It's interesting how things work out, isn't it? Cain is less than five months older than Schafer but entered the Brewers system four years before him, and yet here we sit, thanks to Cain's lost season last year, with both players in approximately the same spot. As long as his defense is as good as reported, I do think Schafer is being underrated.

 

As for Salome, like TheCrew07 said, BA has always hated him, the Brewers seem to hate him, and Haudricourt hates everyone. It's still really weird how the Brewers refuse to even attempt to build up Salome's value, at least publicly. Now it seems like they're being forced into a position of possibly dealing him away for much less than he's worth (where have we heard that before?).

[colbyjack]

TH has been hit pretty hard in the Brewers BA chat in previous years, to the point that I, among others, have had to remind people here not to get too nasty in questioning his credibility. Before TH I remember Drew Olson got blasted as well one year he conducted the chat.

 

But John Manuel has handled it as well, and several of the BA staffers do handle some of the individual team reports and chats. In addition, some of the team correspondents do take the lists very seriously. The guy who handles the Braves and I think the Rays in particular (Bill Ballew?) does a good job.

 

TH has noted in previous years that the top 10 lists aren't entirely his call. He submits a list, and BA is free to edit it as they see fit. I seem to remember last year that the top 10 list changed a little from the one that he submitted, something he admitted to in his blog.

 

I'm not a huge TH supported, but at least he has been more active since JSOnline implemented the blog feature.

 

And I wouldn't say that the Brewers hate Salome. Shortly after people here were wondering why the team wasn't mentioning Salome when talking about the team's catching situation, Melvin and co. quickly started to add his name to the discussion when asked (almost as if they were reading here http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif).

 

Also, I don't think a player's perceived value to the fans and how much a GM talks about such a player to the media has much to do with one's trade value. That is up to the professional scouts that have seen Salome play for the teams that may be interested in acquiring him.

[Never Outhustled]

I don't see any problem with Salome not in the top 10, he rarely plays baseball. He's not playing winterball even though he deserately needs experience and the organization has publically stated their desire for their prospects to play winterball. He's constantly hurt, and the odds of that changing aren't too good as he continues to over-work with the weights instead of increasing his flexibility, especially important for a player with back problems. He seems to be more concerned about looking good in T-shirts than playing baseball. I hope he grows up and commits to being a ballplayer soon, so it benefits the Brewers. His work ethic, if directed in the right direction, could make a very interesting ballplayer.

 

 

Throwing Dykstra (yes I know I've been biased against him from the start) into the top 10 last year after a pretty mediocre campaign in Helena was laughable in my opinion,

By mediocre do you mean one of the best offensive seasons a Brewers HS draft pick has had in the Pioneer League?

 

 

Heckathorn has great upside, but so does Frederickson, and in the grand scheme of Brewer pitching prospects there is no way I would agree he's our 4th best pitching prospect today,

True, but Heckathorn was a much more effective pitcher in college, and doesn't have nearly the severe mechanical issues Frederickson has.

 

 

The player that I'm suprised isn't in the top 10 is Mark Rogers. Theres still so much upside there, and its attainable.

[pingman]

keep in mind that Baseball America is biased toward "tools" & "projectability".....the anti Billy Beene, if you will.....

[battlekow]

Also, I don't think a player's perceived value to the fans and how much a GM talks about such a player to the media has much to do with one's trade value. That is up to the professional scouts that have seen Salome play for the teams that may be interested in acquiring him.

Well, that determines how much the other team values him. What I'm talking about is the Brewers making it obvious that they don't especially value him, which weakens their position in any trade involving him. It's similar to Hardy in that he's a more valuable player in general than he was to the Brewers specifically, and the Brewers ended up dealing him for value equivalent to what Hardy was worth to them, which is a mistake.

[sheetskout]

BA never seems to give props to smaller players and Kentrail Davis that high is a surprise to me. Salome is certainly a glaring omission. Salome has proven, when healthy, to be a productive hitter and I think the progress of Lucroy has caused too many people to write Angel off.

 

Caleb Gindl is another shortie who keeps getting snubbed time after time. He appeared two years ago. How can you punish a prospect who is age-appropriate for his level and keeps producing. Gindl had a great year in the worst hitters league in the minors.

 

I really think Wily Peralta should have appeared around 9-10 or so as well. He's certainly more proven than Odorizzi and has offerings. I guess the bright spot here would be that they must really think a lot of Odorizzi's repertoire to justify that.

[logan82]

My guess is Solome's possible downside if he doesn't stick at catcher. Still seems like quite a fall just because of one injury plagued season.