2009 Draft Review

[colbyjack]

Visit the homepage for my annual draft review story: 2009 Draft Review

[Tedaldtada]

Nice work Colby. I'm interested on your take of Max Walla. Were the pre-draft scouting reports a tad exaggerated? Where do you think the Brewers will place him next year? Are there any recent reports on his bat speed you are aware of?

[colbyjack]

I've been a little gun-shy about players putting on huge pre-draft performances ever since watching Josh Murray belt line drive after line drive over the left field fence at Miller Park back in 2002. They seemed to have fallen for another big pre-draft performance when Evan Frederickson was throwing in the upper 90s at Miller Park in '08. One of the first things I learned in my work with Perfect Game was not to fall too far in love with one player over one game or a stretch of consecutive games. That is what led to my interest in Nathan Bridges, who most people that read this forum probably have no clue is.

 

That said, the reports out of Arizona on Walla were still strong. Bill Mitchell of BA noted how much Walla still impressed observers with his bat speed, but he clearly has work to do improving his strike zone recognition. I don't like how much work appears to be needed, as you would expect such as early draft pick with his kind of reputation to post much better numbers. I've never seen Walla in person, so I have to rely completely on the numbers and the reports we do have at our disposal.

 

The Brewers have been more aggressive with their placement of hitters in recent years (Brewer, Lawrie) than pitchers, so Wisconsin could be a possibility. After seeing him struggle (and after Cutter Dykstra's struggles) I would like to see Walla earn an aggressive promotion by proving he deserves to be there on the field. That's a little tough, since the Pioneer League season doesn't begin until mid-June, but hopefully he did enough in instrux and will do enough in spring training to garner such a bump.

 

Starting at Helena isn't necessarily a bad thing, but he needs to hit. How many early draft picks do you see struggle early in their minor league career only to rebound later on their ascent to the big leagues?

[Tedaldtada]

I have to say I still like Walla a lot. I just remember that post-draft interview he did. He was very excited and had some of that Ryan Braun swagger.

 

I have to think the surprise player from this draft is Josh Prince. Although he def. struggled some once he got to WI, his strike zone recognition seemed very solid and his speed is obviously game changing. I don't remember any reports on how his D looked but the post-draft report said he was solid. I'm guessing he will start next year at WI but Brevard isn't out of the realm of possibility.

 

Does anyone think Prince could be knocking on the mlb door by Sep. 2011 or ST 2012? Also, has he passed Brewer on the org. depth chart? I have to think he is getting pretty close, even after one good half season of pro ball.

[CheezWizHed]

Patrick, excellent stuff as usual. It great to hear about our first year players, especially since their results are rarely based on their talent (i.e. Arnett not throwing sliders, 4-year college players looking too good in rookie ball). It gives a good perspective.

 

One recommendation would be to add the players position (or expected position) to their name so we know that without looking elsewhere. Some of the lower round drafts, I had no idea.

 

And in the midst of the baseball season desert (Jan/Feb), it would be great to hear a report like that on our 2008 or 2007 drafts with their 2009 results. But I understand if time doesn't allow it. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[colbyjack]

Prince needs to continue to progress with his bat. It's nice to see him draw walks and steal bases, but he need to hit, and show that he can hit for some power as well. The potential is there, any hopefully we'll see more of that next year. However, I think that means we need to be a little more patient with his timetable.

 

Thanks for the kind words. Good call on adding the positions, I think I used to do that and overlooked that this year.

 

Reviewing past drafts is a good idea, but it comes down to a matter of time. I have reviewed past drafts before -- look in the right-hand column off of my draft review story for my draft retrospective series from a handful of years ago.

[foamboy1]

I don't have comments or questions, Patrick. I did however, want to thank you for the excellent work. You are one of the many tremendous assets of this site, and I always look forward to your fantastic articles and speculative works.

[filthyfrog]

I've been looking forward to this article since June. Nice work, Colby. With the caveat that it's way too early to really judge the draft, how do you think the Brewers drafted relative to the rest of the league? Top ten? Somewhere in the middle?

[colbyjack]

Thanks again for the kind words. I do appreciate it!

 

I really liked the team's draft, largely because I was a big fan of Arnett, Davis, Richardson and Gennett going into draft day. Getting Gennett and Howell signed and in the system as mid-teen picks for respectable six-figure bonuses was huge. I would probably put the Brewers '09 draft effort in the upper third of drafts since they did have extra, early picks and made some aggressive selections that clearly required significant monetary investments to add to the system. After spending almost all of their premium picks on arms in 2008, the team seemed to go for more quality, although as I observed at the team's pre-draft event at MP, they invited an impressive group of college pitchers that they obviously were interested in (Aaron Miller, Matt Bashore, Mike Belfiore and a few others that I'm forgetting were among the invitees that went in the early rounds to other teams). Meaning, if the draft had gone a little differently, the team may have loaded up on college arms once again.

 

I would feel better about the '09 draft if Walla and Garfield had performed better than they did and if we got a taste of what Davis, Richardson and Gennett are capable of professionally. We should have a better idea of all five of those guys by mid-summer next year, and hopefully Josh Prince takes another step forward at the plate as well. That's a pretty encouraging infusion of bats (three of whom bat left-handed) of which hopefully at least one if not two or three emerge to become some of the team's top prospects by this time next year.

[Menace II Sobriety]

Why I am not more excited about Arnett? I have never seen him pitch but I have read a lot of the reports out there and for some reason I just haven't warmed up to the pick. This has nothing to do with his performance this year after he signed and I commend him for getting into the fold and onto the field so quickly. I realize he wasn't using his slider after the innings logged for IU this year.

 

Maybe it is because he had so much helium before the draft. Even though he could have gone 10-11 spots earlier to the Indians just months before the draft he was predicted as a 5th round pick, and before the season started he didn't even know if he was going to get drafted. I am not concerned about the innings he pitched in college in his final year as it seems as though he kept his pitch counts down except for 2-3 games. Is it because he and Heckathorn are so similar? I like the Davis, D'vo, Howell, Gennett picks, but cannot figure out why I am not hyped on this pick. It could be because I liked the Z formula of taking someone that is the best at something (power, fastball, curve, speed, whatever).

 

Other than that the only thing I can think of is that Seid was sitting on Trout and he got snapped up one pick before ours and went on to tear it up this season. I believe that Arnett was top on the board at the pick but if Trout was there it would have changed our draft, no Davis and another pitcher in the supplemental. What am I missing why? I know I should be more excited about this pick but I am not.

 

Edit: I realize that you cannot always draft someone with the best tools at a certain position, it could be that I am looking for the upside that normally comes with a first rounder and can't see where the growth is going to come from. Arnett is pretty much maxed out physically he doesn't have to grow into his body. I like the pick more than I would have liked getting Aumont a few years ago, I just don't know why I am not sold on it.

[Tedaldtada]

It could be because I liked the Z formula of taking someone that is the best at something (power, fastball, curve, speed, whatever.

 

Arnett did have a top 5 or so slider going into the draft. Pretty hard to get the 'best' with Strasburg around. Also, his FB had to be considered top 10 at least because of his semi-polished command and above average velocity.

[filthyfrog]

I'm kind of in your camp, Menace. As a big, athletic, hard throwing righty, I like Arnett and I'm glad he's in our system, but the max effort delivery and speculations that he'll end up in the bullpen knock his status down a peg. Then again, outside of Strasburg, there weren't any wartless pitchers drafted this year.

 

Personally, I prefer Odorizzi to Arnett. His delivery is just too free and easy not to love. I think that'll help him stay healthy, command his pitches, and maybe add velocity as he matures. He just has Gallardo written all over him.

 

It's really not fair, but with the Brewers' track record of devleoping pitchers, I sort of prefer low 90s pitchers to upper 90s pitchers. We've seen a ton of upper 90s pitchers come through here and how many have been able to both stay healthy and command their pitches? Yup, none.

[TooLiveBrew]

Great work as always, cj. I'm really looking forward to seeing Arnett pitch next season. I realize he's probably still ~2 seasons from reaching the bigs, but he probably has the chance to rise rapidly in 2010.

 

 

-- Davis, Walla, Richardson, Davis, Gennett --

 

It's exciting to see such a talented group of hitters amassed early in the draft. You have to think at least one of these guys will turn into an impact prospect, and given the scouting reports, I'd bet on Davis if I had to pick just one. Walla should be fun to watch, since the scouting reports seem almost in awe of his bat speed. I like Richardson as well, but don't know much about Gennett. The fact that cj likes him is enough for me, though.

 

In fact, I'd like to get your thoughts, Patrick, on a question. If you had to pick one or two guys from the "Rouding out the bats" segment of your review that have the best chance to blossom beyond organizational soldiers and/or role players, who would they be, and why? I know you remind us to temper enthusiasm about college vets having success in rookie ball, but it's hard to ignore the numbers Halton, Sizemore, & Ellington (& even Brownstein & Krieger) were able to post. Does that at least indicate they're ready to try their hands at Wisconsin or even Brevard County?

[colbyjack]

I fell in love with Arnett after seeing him pitch twice last spring. The first came against Iowa I believe in early April, and the second time was against Purdue in the Big Ten championship. I wrote this story after watching Arnett pitch the second time. As you can tell, I walked away incredibly impressed.

 

There's plenty of upside with Arnett. In the first game I saw, he was throwing in the low-90s with his good slider. In the second game, he was 94-96 with even more bite on his slider (it was considerably warmer the second time I saw him pitch, but he was still dominant in both appearances). There's some sink on his fastball, and while he walked to many batters, he was always around the zone. As I noted in my write-up, I also liked the way he attacked hitters, and think it will serve him well as a pro. So many college pitchers are taught to work around the strike zone since the aluminum bat is a sweet spot stick, and this often can cause some problems for college pitchers learning to pitch more to contact at the next level (this is frequently brought up in the coaches and scouts I speak to that cover the Northwoods League, where pitchers also have a hard time going from facing aluminum bats in the spring to wood ones in the summer).

 

I didn't see anything that stood out significantly about his throwing motion, but I'm not an expert on the subject. It's clear he has very good overall athleticism, as he is balanced on the mound and repeated his delivery well. Last year was the most he has ever pitched, meaning he could just be scratching the surface of what he's capable of.

 

I really liked the pick, and won't fault the Brewers for taking him even if it doesn't work out. I still can't believe that many teams passed on him.

 

If you had to pick one or two guys from the "Rouding out the bats" segment of your review that have the best chance to blossom beyond organizational soldiers and/or role players, who would they be, and why?

 

It would definitely be Brownstein, who has a little Dustin Pedroia to him in that he doesn't have the greatest tools (although Pedroia was a good enough athlete to be drafted in the second round), but he makes up for it with an incredible approach to the game. He is very disciplined at the plate, has some speed to burn teams on the basepaths, and is a good contact hitter that consistently puts the ball in play. There isn't much power, and he's limited defensively. I think he's going to max out in the upper levels, but he could get a cup of coffee or two if his hustle allows him to impress the right people.

 

Peter Fatse would probably be my second choice, since he is a decent overall athlete with the ability to play both 2B and the outfield. That versatility and his overall skill-set could make him a utility sleeper down the road

[TooLiveBrew]

Wow, Arnett's stuff as you described it really reminds me of 'good Turnbow', right down to the wonky almost-slider to complement the big freaking wicked one. Similar velocity & break on the fastball, unless I misread anything.

 

His stuff includes a heavy mid-90s fastball that he throws seemingly without effort. A good overall athlete with very good balance and coordination, he generates that velocity from the bottom up, incorporating his entire body and releasing the ball as though it looks it is thrown inches from the opposing batters given his size. The ball explodes out of his hand, and he repeats his delivery well.

 

His breaking ball, which most identify as a slider, is also a plus-plus pitch. It drops off the table and is really hard to hit when he his spotting his fastball as well as he can. He shows that he knows how to add and subtract off the pitch, dropping in more of a curve-like breaking ball for strikes before making hitters look foolish with his wipeout true slider.

[colbyjack]

I'm sorry you got visions of Turnbow with my description TLB, they're really nothing alike.

 

Turnbow has (had) the livest of live arms, and a wicked nasty slider that were tailor made for a closer's role. He was about as max effort as you get.

 

When I talk about generating velocity from the bottom up, I'm talking about a nice and easy delivery, in which no part moves more quickly or violently than another. By the time that momentum reaches his upper body and his arm, the ball is released from the hand without much visual effort. There's no head snap, he doesn't noticeably fall over to one side of the rubber, etc.

 

Andy Benes is one comparison I often think of with such pitchers. A taller, well built, proportional athlete that really makes throwing the ball hard look so easy. IMO, nothing Turnbow did looked easy.

[TooLiveBrew]

Why do some think he'll only be a reliever? His arsenal sounds so well-rounded, & he has the ideal build & velocity.

[Tedaldtada]

Maybe because he doesn't have the best command yet?? Idk, he looks to be nothing but a SP in my eyes...

[colbyjack]

Some people don't think his delivery is particularly smooth. Like I said, I didn't see anything wrong with it and felt overall his arm and body worked really well with no wasted movement, but evaluating pitching mechanics isn't my specialty.

 

Also, he needs to develop a changeup. I'm guessing that is something he was working on this summer, but the times I saw him in the spring he was a 2-pitch pitcher.

[splitterpfj]

Thanks Patrick, excellent analysis.

 

I think the Brewers did a great job of addressing organizational needs, without "reaching."

 

Some of the guys signed too late to play pro ball this year, but that's about the only complaint I've got - I think this could be a great draft class.