Washburn....

[sveumrules]

washburn FIPS last three years | 4.77, 4.72, 4.58

 

suppan FIPS last three years | 4.42, 5.51, 5.70

 

i guess you could say that washburn is suppan but a more accurate statement to me would be, "three years ago when healthy suppan pitched as effectively in the NL as washburn did in a pitcher's park in the AL."

 

say what you will about the imperfections of FIP, but when it comes to events primarily within the control of the pitcher washburn has been far superior the past two seasons, while facing designated hitters instead of pitchers.

[Invader3K]

Like I said earlier, if Washburn replaces Looper, I don't think it's a big deal. But if Melvin is planning to go with a staff comprised of some combination of Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, Looper, and Washburn, forget about making the playoffs.

[nate82]

Washburn also had a 42% Fly Balls and 19.6% Line Drives hit off of him. If Washburn does that again in a hitters park which the NL Central has a lot of Reds, Astros, and Cubs all have hitter friendly ballparks with the Brewers having a neutral and St. Louis and Pittsburgh having a pitchers friendly park.

 

Now if Washburn has the same amount of fly balls as he had last year what do you think that will mean to the amount of HR's he will be giving up? It is going to increase think Looper but with not as hard of a fastball. If you thought Looper and Suppan were bad this year with the home runs why would you think Washburn will be any different?

 

Washburn's stuff = Suppan's stuff. They are nearly identical in how they pitch actually Suppan got more ground balls this season than Washburn did. Suppan had a better GB/FB than Washburn. I'm sorry but Washburn would be a horrible signing for the Brewers he is not that much better than Suppan if anything he is exactly like Suppan and Looper. Looper even had a higher GB/FB rate than Washburn did. Those fly outs that happened in Seattle won't be happening in Milwaukee they will be extra base hits and not outs.

[TooLiveBrew]

If Washburn does that again in a hitters park which the NL Central has a lot of Reds, Astros, and Cubs all have hitter friendly ballparks with the Brewers having a neutral and St. Louis and Pittsburgh having a pitchers friendly park.

 

Not to mention that, while overall neutral, Miller Park plays to the HR more than most parks. I think your analysis is right-on, Nate. Washburn would be a terrible target if he's one of the 'main targets'. I have enough faith in Melvin that Washburn will not be a main target.

[sveumrules]

in case anyone was curious during his tenure with SEA washburn put up a 3.99 era in 340.2 innings at safeco and a 4.35 era in 326.2 innings away from it. a notable difference, but nothing more extreme than your typical home/road split.

 

by comparison, and i realize it's just one example, during sheets time in MKE he put up a 3.50 home era in 750 innings and a 3.97 in 698 road innings.

 

surely safeco has helped washburn over the last few years, but the extent to which it has is a) hard to accurately quantify and therefore b) probably overstated.

 

i have a feeling at this point that one of washburn/sharpie and whoever we get in a hardy trade will be our two "new" starters next year, but as long as it isn't loopan or souper i'll at least give it a chance. and cross my fingers. and toes.

[brewmann04]

That would nean Looper and Washburn would battle to see who gives up the most HR thanks but no thanks

[nate82]

in case anyone was curious during his tenure with SEA washburn put up a 3.99 era in 340.2 innings at safeco and a 4.35 era in 326.2 innings away from it. a notable difference, but nothing more extreme than your typical home/road split.

 

by comparison, and i realize it's just one example, during sheets time in MKE he put up a 3.50 home era in 750 innings and a 3.97 in 698 road innings.

 

surely safeco has helped washburn over the last few years, but the extent to which it has is a) hard to accurately quantify and therefore b) probably overstated.

Sheets is a completely different pitcher than Washburn that is a horrible comparison. Suppan and Looper are more comparable to Washburn than Sheets is. You are missing the point it is not his ERA that I am worried about it is the LD% and FB% that I am worried about with Washburn. Both of those stats were worse than what Suppan and Looper put up.

 

What do you think will happen if Washburn puts up those same LD% and FB% in the NL Central? I can already see what is going to happen Washburn is going to have a worse year than both Looper and Suppan put up this year. Those line drives and fly balls that were outs before in Safeco will now be extra base hits in Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Houston, and Chicago. The only pitchers friendly parks that Washburn will see any significant time in is in Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Even in St. Louis Washburn's line drives and fly balls will be turned into extra base hits. Pittsburgh is probably the only real place where Washburn will not have a problem at with his LD% and FB%.

 

Washburn

Season	Team	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	IFH%	BUH%	tRA
2002	Angels	0.63	19.2 %	31.4 %	49.5 %	12.3 %	6.0 %	7.5 %	20.0 %	4.22
2003	Angels	0.71	22.4 %	32.1 %	45.5 %	11.3 %	11.0 %	5.0 %	0.0 %	5.99
2004	Angels	0.94	20.4 %	38.5 %	41.1 %	10.2 %	9.8 %	6.8 %	18.2 %	5.15
2005	Angels	0.98	21.0 %	39.2 %	39.9 %	9.2 %	8.3 %	4.9 %	42.9 %	5.23
2006	Mariners	0.94	17.9 %	39.9 %	42.2 %	12.6 %	9.3 %	5.1 %	28.6 %	4.88
2007	Mariners	0.81	18.1 %	36.5 %	45.4 %	14.2 %	8.0 %	4.3 %	26.7 %	4.81
2008	Mariners	0.88	22.9 %	36.0 %	41.0 %	12.7 %	8.9 %	7.5 %	25.0 %	5.59
2009	Mariners/Tigers	0.88	19.6 %	37.6 %	42.8 %	8.0 %	9.7 %	4.3 %	35.7 %	5.21

Suppan

Season	Team	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	IFH%	BUH%	tRA
2002	Royals	1.26	20.5 %	44.3 %	35.2 %	7.6 %	12.7 %	6.6 %	26.7 %	6.43
2003	Pirates/Red Sox	1.50	24.6 %	45.2 %	30.2 %	13.0 %	11.1 %	4.2 %	12.5 %	5.85
2004	Cardinals	1.45	19.2 %	47.9 %	33.0 %	10.8 %	12.3 %	5.4 %	8.3 %	5.43
2005	Cardinals	1.43	21.3 %	46.3 %	32.3 %	13.3 %	11.8 %	6.5 %	22.7 %	5.50
2006	Cardinals	1.55	22.9 %	46.8 %	30.3 %	11.9 %	10.8 %	5.7 %	21.4 %	5.74
2007	Brewers	1.30	19.8 %	45.4 %	34.9 %	6.9 %	7.3 %	4.7 %	26.1 %	4.96
2008	Brewers	1.38	23.4 %	44.4 %	32.2 %	7.3 %	15.7 %	5.3 %	28.0 %	6.96
2009	Brewers	1.49	18.2 %	48.9 %	32.9 %	10.2 %	13.4 %	5.4 %	17.6 %	6.21

Looper

Season	Team	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	IFH%	BUH%	tRA
2002	Marlins	1.40	22.6 %	45.1 %	32.3 %	14.5 %	9.6 %	4.3 %	12.5 %	4.93
2003	Marlins	2.50	25.9 %	52.9 %	21.2 %	20.4 %	7.4 %	6.7 %	16.7 %	4.75
2004	Mets	2.75	14.4 %	62.7 %	22.8 %	16.7 %	8.3 %	9.7 %	25.0 %	3.09
2005	Mets	1.86	21.3 %	51.2 %	27.5 %	8.6 %	12.1 %	8.3 %	33.3 %	6.07
2006	Cardinals	1.63	20.4 %	49.4 %	30.2 %	16.9 %	4.2 %	4.3 %	20.0 %	4.02
2007	Cardinals	1.16	21.4 %	42.2 %	36.4 %	8.8 %	10.2 %	2.4 %	0.0 %	5.55
2008	Cardinals	1.51	19.6 %	48.4 %	32.0 %	6.5 %	11.7 %	6.5 %	10.0 %	5.15
2009	Brewers	1.27	17.1 %	46.4 %	36.5 %	9.3 %	15.8 %	7.0 %	20.0 %	6.11

With Washburn's FB% and LD% increases over Looper and Suppan you could only imagine how bad Washburn would be in Milwaukee. It will be a horrible idea to bring in Washburn. The Brewers already have enough #4 and #5 type pitchers on the roster with Bush, Villanueva, Parra, McClung, Suppan, and Looper. The Brewers do not need to add another #4 or #5 starter like Washburn.

[thebruce44]

We have two people (me being one of them) who have heard reports that Washburn changed his delivery for the better. He has had significantly better numbers than Looper and Soup the last 4 years.

 

If Peterson takes a look at him and likes what he sees, I don't see why we wouldn't persue him if the money and years were right just because some people think he is the next Soup. I can understand why you would be gunshy here, but I hope Melvin isn't.

[Invader3K]

Like I said earlier, if Melvin signs him to a reasonable "not long term" (like no more than two yeasr) contract, then fine...but it had better be to replace Looper or Suppan.

[nate82]

We have two people (me being one of them) who have heard reports that Washburn changed his delivery for the better. He has had significantly better numbers than Looper and Soup the last 4 years.

In a pitchers ballparks where he pitched nearly the majority of his time. Washburn is exactly like Suppan and Looper just because his numbers are better because he is pitching in the AL West which has a lot of pitching friendly ballparks doesn't mean Washburn is better.

 

If Washburn really did change his delivery for the better he would have had a better FIP this year than his career numbers right? it would be something significantly better than his career numbers correct? You would think something like that would change a pitcher and make them better. Yet it didn't do that all it did was put him back to where his career numbers were at.

 

The Brewers shouldn't be signing players older than 30 years old unless they are elite type of pitchers and Washburn is not an elite pitcher. I can live with a Lackey signing but a Washburn signing no way that is a waste of money. I'll say this again the Brewers already have Bush, McClung, Parra, Suppan, Looper, Villanueva, Butler, and Narveson who can give you exactly what Washburn will give the Brewers at no additional cost and risk.

 

Washburn is not worth signing unless Looper opts out of his contract which I doubt he will. If Washburn is signed for more than $3m a season that is a waste of money in my opinion. This is Suppan and Looper version 2.0 the left handed version. Please look at Washburn's FB% and LD% and then compare them to Looper's and Suppan's. Also look at Washburn's HR/FB rate. That will only increase when he is out of a pitchers friendly park I expect Washburn's HR/FB rate to increase to about 13%. That is Looper and Suppan territory for giving up home runs how is that going to be a good thing?

 

Everyone rags on how bad Looper and Suppan are but yet some people still want to go out and sign another Suppan and Looper why?

[Invader3K]

I think most could more than "live" with a Lackey signing. Probablem is the Brewers have no realistic shot at obtaining him. They will upgrade through trades, and should be able to get at least one pitcher better than a Washburn type of guy.

[thebruce44]

If Washburn really did change his delivery for the better he would have had a better FIP this year than his career numbers right? it would be something significantly better than his career numbers correct? You would think something like that would change a pitcher and make them better. Yet it didn't do that all it did was put him back to where his career numbers were at.

 

Except that he did pitch much better than his career numbers despite what his end of the year FIP was. I believe we just had the discussion that stats need to be inspected along with a reality check.

 

In this instance, FIP for the entire season is fairly worthless (unless you know where to find FIP splits for when he was with Seatle vs Detroit, i.e. before he was injured). Baseball reference does have ERA+ for both of those timeframes and the results show a much improved pitcher regarless of league and home park:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/washbja01-pitch.shtml

 

An ERA+ of 164 for his 133 IP in Seattle shows that those were the best innings he has ever pitched (in fact those are Cy Young type numbers), while his 43IP at 62 ERA+ in Detroit was terrible. His career ERA+ is 109 by the way.

 

Is this a pitcher who finally figured it out and then got injured? Perhaps, and that would go along with all the reports I read and that have been posted here. Might as well let Peterson and our scouts take a look at him. Either way, his season long FIP needs to be thrown out in my opinion.

 

Here is an expanation for ERA+ showing that it is adjusted for league and home park:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adjusted_ERA%2B

[JohnBriggs12]

Forgetting the stats a minute, isn't it possible that having a veteran left-handed starter would have a positive effect on Manny Parra?

 

Bedard's ERA for Seattle as Washburn's teammate in 09 was 2.82, nearly a run lower than his career numbers. Another lefty, Ryan Rowland-Smith was not a top flight prospect, but when he came up in 08 as Washburn's teammate, he did quite well. Not saying Washburn had any influence but it would seem to me that having more than one lefty in a rotation could benefit both.

 

Parra's never had a veteran lefty to be around and absorb how he works hitters, etc. Maybe that's what he needs.

[endaround]

Well except for that CC guy. Whatever happened to him?

[crewcrazy]

Parra's never had a veteran lefty to be around and absorb how he works hitters, etc. Maybe that's what he needs.

From what I remember, when Sabathia was here, Parra was constantly shadowing him and getting advice. That was only for a few months, though, so I can see your point...if Parra's going to have a mentor, it'd be nice to have him for more than half a season.

[endaround]

But Washburn is an entirely different type of pitcher.

[nate82]

What if Suppan was left handed would that count as a veteran pitcher?

[nate82]

If the Brewers are going to sign another soft tosser I would rather it be Garland than Washburn. Garland will only be 31 compared to Washburn being 35 next season.

[craigharmann]

MLB trade rumors says that the Twins are interested in Washburn. TAKE HIM PLEASE!!! I don't want DM anywhere near this guy!

[chadomac]

I saw ANOTHER post today on MLBTraderumors.com talking about the Twins OR Brewers and Washburn. I really really really hope we don't pick him up, and I'm really really really worried that we will.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I dont want washburn either...