Bill James 2010 Projections are available

[twobrewers]

2010 Projections

Hardy projected with a .742 OPS

Escobar projected with a .703 OPS (42 stolen bases)

Gamel projected with a .817 OPS

Salome projected with a .787 OPS

Gerut projected with a .747 OPS

Cameron projected with a .756

 

Nothing particularly surprising with the pitcher - Bush with a 4.29 ERA. That sounds pretty close to me, but I know some people were really down on him. Suppan with an ERA over 5.00. And, because it seems relevant - Washburn with a 4.09 ERA.

[dadofandrew]

Note that tiny difference between Mike and Jody...that's slightly smaller than I would say, but still minimal for the money.

[trwi7]

I'm surprised you didn't post McGehee's projection without Gamel's.

 

It's .757 FWIW.

[rluzinski]

Note that tiny difference between Mike and Jody...that's slightly smaller than I would say, but still minimal for the money

 

I agree that the offensive gap will be higher. Also, players get paid for their offensive and defensive contributions, which widens the gap, IMO.

[Never Outhustled]

I like Gerut, but his projection is likely assuming he get limited ABs versus LHP. You can't even begin to compare him to a super durable everyday guy like Cameron. It should also be noted that the projections for Cameron have always been lower than his actual results, so why should next year be any different.

[JoeHova]

The link doesn't work for me, what are Prince and Braun projected to do?

[homer]

Here's another link:

 

http://www.brewcrewball.com/2009/10/28/1104772/taking-a-look-at-some-early

[BoKnowsBall]

The link doesn't work for me, what are Prince and Braun projected to do?

Pretty much just mash:

Braun - .972 OPS with 39 HR (.315, .378, .593)

Fielder - .967 OPS with 44 HR (.286, .393, .574)

[PlayerHader]

I think both guys' OBP is a bit low with in those projections.

 

Looks good otherwise, though!

[clancyphile]

I like Gerut, but his projection is likely assuming he get limited ABs versus LHP. You can't even begin to compare him to a super durable everyday guy like Cameron. It should also be noted that the projections for Cameron have always been lower than his actual results, so why should next year be any different.

Cameron's defense is also a big plus in his column.

[dadofandrew]

Link has been down all weekend, I bet they didn't mean to make it public yet.

 

When a new one is found, let us know.

[JohnBriggs12]

Gerut put up an .845 OPS (in San Diego) as recently as 2008.

 

In the 3 seasons he recorded at least 350 AB's, his OPS were .830, .739, and .845. Injuries for the most part have kept him from a more productive career. I don't find his projection to be out of line at all and he's shown the ability at times for it to be significantly better.

 

Cameron has been "super durable", but he is 37. At some point everyone starts breaking down some.

[joepepsi]

Cameron's career OPS is .788. Gerut's is .765

 

Hardy career OPS: .751

Escobar minor league career OPS: .708

McGehee minor league career OPS .741

Gamel 2 seasons a AAA .829 OPS

Salome last year at AAA: .741

 

Braun major league career OPS: .937

Prince major league career OPS: .931

[TooLiveBrew]

Salome projected with a .787 OPS

 

I don't think it's even possible to overstate the excitement about this. Even with the caveat that James's projections are always the most optimistic, that is simply awesome. Thanks to BrewerBrent's post #79 in the Salome/Lucroy thread in the minor league forum, we know the full line for that projection:

 

.296/.345/.442

 

 

And as BB said in that post, "yes please". Even if you randomly dock 10 points from each category (not sound mathematically, but just a crude toning down of the projection), you get roughly .285/.335/.435/.770. And again... yes please. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[twobrewers]

Link has been down all weekend, I bet they didn't mean to make it public yet.

I'm pretty sure they didn't want that information given away for free. I downloaded the entire PDF while it was still available.

 

As homer mentioned, there is a listing of Brewers projections at Brewcrewball.

[logan82]

I don't see Escobar getting enough SB attempts to get 42 SB.

[dadofandrew]

If he's batting 7th or 8th, he'll run a lot. If he ever gets up to #1/2, he'll be given the stop sign a lot.

[logan82]

He batted 7th/8th almost all the time this year and hardly ran at all.