Kapler re-signs in Tampa and further proof Fangraphs is ridiculous

[Hate those Rodents]

according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times. Kapler, 34, hit .239/.329/.439 in 238 plate appearances while playing all three outfield positions (primarily right field).

Kapler originally signed with the Rays for $1MM back in January. The Rays seemingly got their money's worth, as Kapler's strong defense led FanGraphs to value him at $5.2MM this year.

One can only imagine what he is worth to fangraphs if he'd have hit .268 over 550 plate appearances in right field.

(edited to show that Gabe signed again, not that he resigned from his position - hawing)

[sheethead]

I would think they are looking at the formula to make the outcome a bit more realistic looking. The dollar figure seems like a work in progress at this point, and a way to compare players using Fangraphs money, rather than real-world value/contracts.

[nate82]

If you want to know more about the value and how they come up with it read this. All this stat does is put the dollar figure on the player for their WAR. There are other factors that you can not account for in stats unless you really wanted a really complicated formula to arrive at a more accurate dollar figure. Kapler probably could have gotten more than what the Rays gave him. Not much more though since when you start factoring in his age and that he is mainly a platoon player you are looking at a max of about $3-5m a year which is close to what Fangraphs was predicting.

[sheethead]

Kapler wasn't going to get $3m anywhere, let alone the $5.2m that Fangraphs predicted. He got just over $1m, which is just over what he got last year.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't understand why the thread needs to be another moan fest about WAR & Fangraphs. It's useful information just to talk about Kapler re-signing with Tampa. The $ value is how much production was worth in a vacuum, based on how MLB teams spend. It doesn't factor in age, so who cares?

[chuckiehacks]

The $ value is how much production was worth in a vacuum,

Completely agree. However, there have been some around here that like to throw out the fangraphs number as justification for the "value" re-signing a player. This has come up multiple times in the Cameron discussion, and I don't remember anyone citing the fangraphs value with the disclaimer above. I think that is what causes frustration for other posters.

[TooLiveBrew]

There was one thread that turned into a big debate, where that was discussed. Can't remember which one. I think the best way to look at it is the $ value is what the production, not the player, was worth.

 

It's too bad that Kapler re-signed with the Rays, since he'd have been a perfect fit if the Brewers decide not to retain Cameron. Please don't decide to do that, Brewers. I am, however, glad that Gabe's decision to return to playing has worked out so well for him. I wonder why he decided to retire in the first place.

 

 

EDIT: Found some interesting quotes from Gabe... this one from his Wikipedia page, on why he went to play for the Yomiuri Giants in 2005:

Less than one month after the Red Sox dramatic 2004 World Series victory over the Cardinals, Kapler departed the Boston Red Sox for Japan's Yomiuri Giants. He received a $2 million deal plus a $700,000 signing bonus, compared to the $750,000 salary he had received from the Sox. Driven by the memory of an elementary-school report that he had written about Japan, he felt it was time for a change. "I tend to make emotional decisions," he said. "I did it more for the life experience than anything else. And ever since I wrote that report, I've been fascinated by everything that an 8-year-old associates with a country far, far away."

 

And on his retirement in 2006:

"I have been thinking about this transition for many years, and believe this to be the right time," said Kapler. "This will afford me the opportunity to make an impact in the lives of young men, not only to help them develop as baseball players, but also more importantly, as human beings."

 

"I had ample opportunity to continue my playing career, but feel that I can give so much more as a manager and a leader. I feel this decision will be extraordinarily fulfilling to me personally and professionally and look forward to tackling the challenges that lie ahead. I am ecstatic that the Red Sox, which I think is the best organization in baseball, believe in me enough to give me this opportunity."

[sbrylski]

The $$$ output by fangraphs is also descriptive, not predictive.

[Ennder]

Cameron and Kapler are very different examples though. Cameron has many full seasons of data, the problem with Kapler is the sample sizes are so small that they aren't that useful

[TheCrew07]

It's descriptive, but based on a league average, and there are too many teams that aren't able to and shouldn't spend that kind of money per win. The league is too top heavy for that kind of analysis. I have no problem with WAR itself, but the way the dollar representation is misused drives me nuts.

[Invader3K]

Like I said in the thread on MLB Trade Rumors about this, I wish they'd call it "fantasy baseball currency points" or something, instead of "dollars" in their valuations.

 

Anyway, good signing for the Rays. Gabe plays decent defense and has some pop left in his bat. Seems safe enough for around $1 million.

[cwolf2012]

"Kapler wasn't going to get $3m anywhere, let alone the $5.2m that Fangraphs predicted"

 

Fangraphs didn't predict anything. It assigned a dollar value based upon his performance as what he was worth compared to the rest of the league on a free agent payscale. I don't necessarily believe he is that good as his sample sizes are miniscule (as stated earlier).

[TooLiveBrew]

Cameron and Kapler are very different examples though. Cameron has many full seasons of data, the problem with Kapler is the sample sizes are so small that they aren't that useful

I wasn't comparing the two, I was referring to the notion that Kapler could have been paired in a CF platoon with Gerut.

[dadofandrew]

Much like win shares, it'll die out quick. Nothing is dumber than saying Kapler was worth $5.2M, and it makes the whole site look stupid.

[Hate those Rodents]

I was waiting for someone to word it like that Dadofandrew.

[JoeHova]

I think that trying to tie everything in to one number is interesting, especially because that is what teams are basically doing when they offer players contracts. I agree that it tends to value scrubs too highly though. A team that pays $5 million each to a team of 25 Kaplers would be terrible.

[LouisEly]

Fangraphs way, way overvalues defense and how they lump all outfield positions together for UZR/defensive purposes way overvalues centerfielders. They have Nyjer Morgan as being more valuable than Ryan Braun.

[cwolf2012]

"how they lump all outfield positions together for UZR/defensive purposes way overvalues centerfielders."

 

I don't understand this statement. How does lumping seperate positions together make one overvalued?

 

Is it really that hard to believe that Ryan Braun's defense and position make him significantly less valuable than he seems because of his bat?

[Invader3K]

Yes, pretty much. Because his defense really is not all that bad anymore and his bat is so darn good, that's why.

[sheethead]

I think the best way to look at it is the $ value is what the production, not the player, was worth.

 

I was replying to, Not much more though since when you start factoring in his age and that he is mainly a platoon player you are looking at a max of about $3-5m a year which is close to what Fangraphs was predicting. But I understand your point about its goal as a descriptor and not a predictor. Allow me to rephrase... there is no way Gabe Kapler's production in 2009 was worth $5.2m.

 

Is it really that hard to believe that Ryan Braun's defense and position make him significantly less valuable than he seems because of his bat?

 

Are you saying you agree (with Fangraphs) that Nyjer Morgan was more valuable than Ryan Braun in 2009, in terms of dollar value production?

[sbrylski]

I'm not saying they factor defense in perfectly, but because a metric doesn't match up with your perception is not reason enough to reject its findings. That's simply being close-minded.

 

You can be skeptical, you may be right to be in this case, but you really should learn about how its constructed and take objections in the methodology, not the end results.

[Thurston Fluff]

you really should learn about how its constructed and take objections in the methodology, not the end results.

 

I think the end results show there must be something wrong with the methodology. In this case I think it might be over valuing UZR as it relates to overall defensive value.

[thebruce44]

People really get hung up on that player value column when that isn't even the point of the site or WAR. I feel bad for people who are so closed minded that they will just call Fangraphs ridiculous without trying to understand some of the information provided there.

[sheethead]

Why should we only look to the methodology, when the end result is what is constantly being cited and put in front of us? Not to mention the methodology is proprietary and not available for public scrutiny. Only the ideas are available, but the calculations are not.

 

If the end result doesn't make sense, then why should anyone care about scrutinizing the methodology. Its the other way around... show me a sensible end result, and then I will care more about how you got there (just to make sure the whole process isn't fudged to make it look good). Otherwise just call it a fantasy stat and don't try to lead people to believe that it is in any way relevant to real life happenings (hint: use the Euro symbol).

 

Questioning the dollar values Fangraphs places on players has nothing to do with being closed minded, and I feel sorry for people who blindly accept the figure placed in front of them by a website, without understanding why it looks so ridiculous to most people. I also feel badly for people who believe they understand exactly what goes into computing WAR, when in actuality there is no way most people could possibly know all the variables Fangraphs uses to come up with their numbers. Key variables are proprietary information, and not available to the public.

[rluzinski]

Calling something stupid when you don't even know what it exactly is seems more like a defensive mechanism to me. Easier to dismiss something outright than to learn about it and intelligently debate its merit. There's plenty to disagree with AFTER you learn how it works and what it's trying to quantify. As has been mentioned, it's not saying what Kapler will be worth. It's not even sure what Kapler was worth this year. It's just an estimate. It has strengths and weaknesses. For instance....

 

UZR is just a "best guess" at defensive value. Kapler only had 62 full games in the field, so there's going to be significant sampling error in that estimate. And if you want to convert UZR into a projection for defensive value, you probably need 3-4 full seasons of data, regress it and adjust for age. Even then, it's STILL just an estimate. For Kapler, he's spent so few games int he field over the last 3 years that our best guess is probably average (slightly above average now but a year older).

 

And the calculation of offensive value is context neutral (not all HRs have equal value, depending on how many runners are on, if those runs won the game, etc...), so you could take exception to that as well if you wanted to.

 

The articles describing the methodology are all written and have been linked to several times before.