Offseason priority - Lock up Gallardo

[adambr2]

With the Suppan and Hall contracts still hampering us from probably being TOO active this offseason, lets look at what we can do to ensure our future. If there is mutual interest, let's get Gallardo locked up long-term as a Brewer. I'm thinking something along the lines of 6 years, $43M. That buys out his remaining pre-arby year, his 3 arby years, and 2 FA years.

 

2010 - $1M

2011 - $4.5M

2012 - $7M

2013 - $8.5M

2014 - $10M

2015 - $12M

 

Gallardo is coming off a solid, although not yet dominant year. He's still the closest thing we have to an ace. We know how difficult elite starting pitching is to come by these days. Gallardo may very well be the most essential piece of our future. I don't believe he is an injury-prone risk. Of course, you're taking a risk with a long-term deal with any young pitcher, but some risk is unavoidable if you're going to build a competitive ballclub. Take advantage of the down economy and get Gallardo signed before he really starts to realize his full potential. Gallardo in return gets lifetime financial security at a young age. Everybody wins. Get it done.

[dadofandrew]

He is locked up through '13 right now, and they have no fears if he blows out his arm (or knee, or whatever). Unless he's willing to give a huge discount, I have no interest. Pitchers get hurt so commonly, going year-to-year is almost always preferable.

 

I wouldn't think of more than 3 years with any pitcher, as a standard . The risk/reward scenario just does not work >3 seasons.

[TheCrew07]

He is locked up through '13 right now, and they have no fears if he blows out his arm (or knee, or whatever). Unless he's willing to give a huge discount, I have no interest. Pitchers get hurt so commonly, going year-to-year is almost always preferable.

 

I wouldn't think of more than 3 years with any pitcher, as a standard . The risk/reward scenario just does not work >3 seasons.

That's a pretty narrow assessment of the situation with starting pitchers. We aren't talking about signing a FA pitcher in his 30s, we're talking about signing a pre-Arby player to a long term deal, there's a huge difference. Even if Yo would go down with TJ surgery and we'd lose him for a year chances are he'd still comeback to be an excellent pitcher. The whole point of signing players early is they that they give up a fair amount of salary for the long term security, it's a not a home town discount, it's a give and take. A James Shields type contract makes perfect sense for him. You buy out a year of FA upfront and go with team option years for the next 3, making it a 7 or 8 year deal. If he gets injured, the risk is mitigated with the option years. If he stays healthy then great, we'd have a very cost effective front line starter and if the kids behind him pan out and he becomes expendable his contract would be perfect for a trade. There's no downside here and he's all we really have at this point in time.

 

The benefits of locking up the core players to long term deals far outweigh the risks; I'll take cost certainty and longevity (being able to keep our young players until they are 28-30 years old) over going year to year in arbitration every single time. The only difference between pitchers and position players is that when dealing with pitchers the final years should not be guaranteed, the final 2-3 years should be option years given the risk of injury.

 

Even if the team would have to go guaranteed with Yo for the entire length of the contract, it's a risk I'd be willing take... for the 12 -14mil we'd be spending in that last year for his services, the team would never be able to replace his production for that money in Free Agency. We should be stockpiling young quality starting pitching depth and minimizing the value of the 1 pitcher we have doesn't seem like a good start... at least to me.

[logan82]

Doesn't matter the pitcher's age. They all are high injury risks. With pitchers over 30 you have their declining skills in addition to the injury risk. A position player when injured can still be reasonably helpful. When a pitcher is injured, even a minor injury, their production is more likely to be affected negatively.

[TheCrew07]

Doesn't matter the pitcher's age. They all are high injury risks. With pitchers over 30 you have their declining skills in addition to the injury risk. A position player when injured can still be reasonably helpful. When a pitcher is injured, even a minor injury, their production is more likely to be affected negatively.

Actually, it does matter the pitcher's age, or more importantly where they are at in their physical development. I have no desire to rehash the injury nexus discussion, there is a ton of information floating around the web on the subject. I already acknowledged the injury concerns with pitchers, I've argued vehemently against FA pitchers in the past, but what does any of that have to do with the point about I made about signing our young stud pitchers to James Shields' type contracts?

 

Maybe people just don't get how brilliant that signing by the Rays was? At the end the of the deal the pitcher is always pitching on a 1 year contract... year to year with the multiple team option years, it's the perfect deal for a small market club.

 

It doesn't matter if it's a position player or pitcher, if our plan isn't to maximize a stud player's length of service with an organization while minimizing his cost, then our plan stinks and we need a new plan. Especially when it comes to pitching... the organization doesn't have a great history of developing pitchers, so why not maximize a particular pitcher's service time with the organization when we actually hit on one? If he becomes replaceable he can always be traded away later, but as much as I like Butler, Rivas, Rogers, Bowman, Periard, Anundsen, Arnett, Heckathorn, Bucci, Krestalude, Lasker, Odorizzi, Peralta, and Scarpetta can any of us say with certainty that any of those young arms will be better starting pitchers than Yo? How many of those guys will wash out or end up in the BP? What's the arrival date for a particular pitcher? What if they get injured and derailed like Rogers?

 

Just because we have a flood of pitching depth on the way doesn't mean we should go year to year with a player like Yo. He should still be locked up as if we do in fact end up with a surplus of arms at the MLB level, then the club can make the decisions on which pitchers to trade based on talent and what's best for the organization, instead of basing a move primarily on service time.

[Never Outhustled]

TheCrew07 certainly has a very intriguing idea here. The length of the contract is less of an issue because its total value isn't very high. Having multiple option years would be very exciting, and its hard to picture that turning out undesirably. Along with Shields, Ian Schnell has a similar deal. The Pirates did very well in trading Schnell, despite his refusal to play for them, in large part I theorize because of the contract he was signed to.

 

The Brewers had stated that they already had the equipment to do a Rick Peterson style evaluation, and the 1st pitcher William Raasch was planning to do a video breakdown of was Gallardo. Was this to give the club a better idea of his risk of injury so they could project whether he was an ideal candidate for extension?

[chadomac]

I love Gallardo but there is no point in locking him in beyond 2013. Why not just pay as we go with no risk to owe him money years after he's done pitching for us? He could have Tommy John next year and we'd be on the hook for tens of millions of dollars. If we pay as we go we can always just cut ties the next year should an injury occur.

[thebruce44]

There's no downside here and he's all we really have at this point in time.

 

At the other end of the spectrum, your post is also a pretty narrow assessment in my mind. Look at Sheets for example. He was very healthy, and then struggled through injury plagued years. Several young pitchers pull a Liriano or Volquez every year. How many of them actually come back and are as good as they are before that? Why get on the hook for 6 years when we still don't even know what we have? Besides, arby pitchers aren't nearly as expensive as arby position players.

 

There is tremendous downside and the fact that he is all we have would be a terrible reason to lock him up.