The Boston Red Sox and Buy-Low, High-Upside Starters

[RyDogg66]

The Red Sox have been pulling this off for a couple of years now, and I like the strategy. MLBtraderumors has an article that indicates that Theo Epstein will forgo looking for a #1 type starter and dabble in the buy-low bin. Starters that are named as possibilities are:

 

A number of scouts and execs tell McAdam that the Red Sox will likely pursue Rich Harden this offseason. Ben Sheets, Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer and Mark Mulder are also possible targets for Epstein and the Red Sox

I like Epstein's quote in the article:

 

"Could we end up with another buy-low, high-upside, low-risk starting pitcher somewhere on the roster? Sure. And if it doesn't work out, we'll move on."

I wish Melvin would consider doing this. And dont tell me Braden Looper fit the bill last year. And Suppan was the EXACT opposite kind of buy-high, cross-your-fingers he doesnt stink type of pitcher.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Boston can afford this strategy because they can easily afford to eat a bad contract. I do agree that the Brewers should target high upside guys like Sheets and Bedard over average to below average guys like Davis and Washburn but I doubt Melvin will take this strategy. I fully expect him to ignore injury risks and sign "reliable" guys with no upside.

[Never Outhustled]

The Red Sox have been pulling this off for a couple of years now, and I like the strategy.

When has this strategy worked for Boston? This past season, they wasted huge money with wretched returns. They didn't make their move this year until they jettisoned all the starters they signed in the offseason, as they were holding them back.

 

The strategy works in theory, but the problem is these injured, supposedly cheap starters still cost way too much.

[endaround]

They paid Smoltz $5.5m. They paid Penny $5m. That isn't cheap.

[JohnBriggs12]

Mulder's done nothing in the big leagues since 2005. Any team offering him more than a minor league deal is nuts.

[pingman]

Isn't Melvin already doing this with Capuano?

[joepepsi]

It makes sense for Boston to try it next year because they already have 5 starters: Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Buchholz, and Wakefield. When Harden or Bedard are healthy enough to pitch they are very effective. So all they need is 20-25 from one of these guys because the rest of the rotation looks pretty solid. The Brewers don't have that luxury. 25 starts from Harden leaves 10 starts from Burn or some other dreck to tune of 6.50+ ERAs.

[TheCrew07]

Isn't Melvin already doing this with Capuano?

Cappy isn't exactly high ceiling pitching 80ish MPH.

[fondybrewfan]

Absolutely every team is probably going to try this strategy this year because of the lack of top level talent. Outside of Lackey there isn't anyone that deserves a long term deal. SO teams that had pitching problems this year have no choice but to take some risks either by trading away talent or signing guys like Smoltz, Sheets, Mulder, Hudson, etc.

 

If this isn't Melvin's strategy he is an idiot. He should be looking to sign a high risk high ceiling guy and should also be looking on the trade market. 25 of the MLB teams probably won't even bother contacting the Type A's.

[twobrewers]

This is also a good reason why compensation for losing free agents doesn't work as planned.

Boston hopes to add a few good players on the rebound with one year deals. (Bedard or Sheets) They hope they play well, reestablish their value so Boston can offer them arbitration and Boston just bought two high drafts picks.

The problem, of course, is that, as a pitcher, you are now pitching the the AL East. If you want to increase your value, you would be an idiot not to sign with an NL team. Unfortunately, the Brewers can't afford to gamble on several players.

[logan82]

fondybrewfan wrote:

If this isn't Melvin's strategy he is an idiot. He should be looking to sign a high risk high ceiling guy and should also be looking on the trade market. 25 of the MLB teams probably won't even bother contacting the Type A's.

So Melvin is an idiot if he doesn't spend money(big money no less) on a player who may or may not play. I would have thought it the other way around.

[twobrewers]

Cappy isn't exactly high ceiling pitching 80ish MPH.

On the radio the other day, Haudricourt mentioned that Capuano would be open to another season with the Brewers - but that he would explore his options.

 

Haudricourt doubted that he would be a starting pitcher anymore. So I can't imagine the Brewers offering him much more than the minimum for a potential relief pitcher.

[paul253]

I'd love to see Melvin sign Bedard and Sheets to one year deals. I'd overpay to sign them both to one year deals actually. What is does is 1) immediately improves the pitching staff or 2) If either stays healthy they can be used as trade bait if Milwaukee isn't looking like they are in it around the trade deadline. Quite honestly if both stay healthy it would be hard to see how we wouldn't be in it, but I guess you never know. If either of them suck it up or get hurt, you let them go next season, no harm no foul. I just hope Melvin does something. He didn't do squat for the pitching staff last year and I would be very disappointed if he makes the same mistake two years in a row. Sheets, Bedard and/or Harden....i think he has to get at least one of them.

[logan82]

or 3)are never healthy enough to pitch most of the year.

[BrewCrewForever]

Isn't Melvin already doing this with Capuano?

Cappy isn't exactly high ceiling pitching 80ish MPH.

I think Cappy may need to reinvent himself into a left handed specialist.