Brewers Chances for FA Starters?

[ILuvDaBush]

My only assertation was that Alcides has more range and is more prone to make the spectacular play. I will readily admit that WITHIN his zone, JJ converts more plays into outs. But JJ can't make a lot of the plays that Alcides makes.

[logan82]

Overall, JJ makes more plays than Escobar. That is the important thing. JJ, while slower, has good instincts and anticipation that give him range to make up for his lack of foot speed.

[sheetskout]

This is the best play I have ever seen a SS make. I am not joking either. One analyst responded with something like "I don't know how his arm didn't pop out of his socket on the throw." J.J. could never make this type of play. Alcides is going to be special in the field.

[Never Outhustled]

People love Escobar defensively because he makes routine plays look great, while Hardy makes great plays look routine. Hardy, at this point, is the better defender.

[thebruce44]

JJ, while slower, has good instincts and anticipation that give him range to make up for his lack of foot speed.

 

I always thought his arm allows him to play deeper than most SS, which makes up for his lack of range. Also, JJ actually has a lot of foot speed (I think he was just behind Hart and Weeks when they did the 60 yard dash a couple of years ago). I am not sure why he is considered to have poor range. Maybe its a lack of "first step" speed?

[TooLiveBrew]

People love Escobar defensively because he makes routine plays look great, while Hardy makes great plays look routine. Hardy, at this point, is the better defender.

 

That's not fair. People love Escobar because he has the athletic gifts to blossom into one of the great defensive shortstops in the game. While Hardy is the better defender right now, his potential is fulfilled. Escobar absolutely looks like he will become a better defender than J.J.

 

Hardy certainly has excellent hands & a strong, accurate arm, along with reading the ball well off the bat. However, much of his success on defense is also due to good positioning by the coaching staff -- although I will admit J.J. may well be responsible for some of that, too.

[logan82]

That's not fair. People love Escobar because he has the athletic gifts to blossom into one of the great defensive shortstops in the game. While Hardy is the better defender right now, his potential is fulfilled. Escobar absolutely looks like he will become a better defender than J.J.

 

I agree that some of the love for Escobar on defense are the spectacular plays he makes. The question is "when" will Escobar become better than Hardy in my opinion. I don't think that is next year.

 

However, much of his success on defense is also due to good positioning by the coaching staff

 

You make it sound like any guy with athletic ability could play SS for the Brewers. If what you said is true, then Escobar would be a far superior defender to JJ. Right now, he isn't.

[TooLiveBrew]

How do I make it sound that way? I even added the note that Hardy might be responsible for his own positioning. Do you disagree that Hardy benefits greatly from being positioned correctly? Or that the coaching staff/scouting plays a big role in said positioning?

 

The discussion on Hardy & Escobar is frustrating imo because each 'side' is discussing two different things:

 

- 'Escobar will become a better defender than Hardy' (which gets called into question, and rightfully so, since Hardy is so reliable on the balls he can field)

- 'J.J. is a better defender right now' (& I have yet to see any Escobar-proponent claim otherwise)

 

I don't think it's useful to respond to the claim that someone like me believes Escobar will become a better defender by saying, 'Well, J.J. is better right now.' I don't dispute that.

 

 

The question is "when" will Escobar become better than Hardy in my opinion. I don't think that is next year.

 

I'm exactly not sure when, but I think there's a decent chance it could be next year, but probably would handicap it as 50/50. I think Escobar will be roughly equal to Hardy next season, and surpass him by 2011. And that's not a shot at Hardy -- it's just a reflection of the extra range that Escobar has.

[logan82]

How do I make it sound that way? I even added the note that Hardy might be responsible for his own positioning. Do you disagree that Hardy benefits greatly from being positioned correctly? Or that the coaching staff/scouting plays a big role in said positioning?

 

My question would have to be, why bring it up? Every player playing SS for the Brewers will get similar positioning from the coaching staff. Why would it somehow help Hardy but not Escobar?

 

'Escobar will become a better defender than Hardy' (which gets called into question, and rightfully so, since Hardy is so reliable on the balls he can field)

 

I have yet to see that questioned. Most seem to think Escobar will be better at some point. JJ is so good that there isn't much room to improve over JJ.

- 'J.J. is a better defender right now' (& I have yet to see any Escobar-proponent claim otherwise)

 

It was stated earlier in this very thread.

 

Sheets has never had a shortstop like Alcides and one need look no further than the Texas Rangers and their pitching resurgence from another slick-fielding rookie (Elvis Andrus).

I'm exactly not sure when, but I think there's a decent chance it could be next year, but probably would handicap it as 50/50. I think Escobar will be roughly equal to Hardy next season, and surpass him by 2011. And that's not a shot at Hardy -- it's just a reflection of the extra range that Escobar has.

 

Maybe he will. Escobar certainly has the tools. I would probably go a little lower than 50/50 myself. I do agree that he will be equal to JJ on defense, or better, in 2011. Again even the best defensive SS in the league provides little additional benefit over JJ.

 

One thing I have yet to see brought up is unless Macha makes some serious adjustments, his managing robs Escobar of one of his best offensive attributes, SB.

 

In the past I was dead set against Escobar being on the Brewers. I am not really leaning either way on Escobar/Hardy at this point. I think some people have soured on JJ after this year. I think one will be traded. Escobar would probably bring back a guy who would help immediately while JJ is more likely to bring back prospects. Hardy is likely to be more valuable next year overall. We would probably be better off keeping Escobar long term. Whoever gets the guy we trade will likely have made a very good trade.

 

I know this is going to be one of the big issues on the board this off season, along with catching, CF, and starting pitching. I don't think the gap between the 2 sides on this is as big as last year.

[TooLiveBrew]

Every player playing SS for the Brewers will get similar positioning from the coaching staff. Why would it somehow help Hardy but not Escobar?

 

That's a good point, which I obviously failed to consider.

 

 

It was stated earlier in this very thread.

 

I didn't read that as a definitive statement that Escobar is a better defender than Hardy *right now*. I certainly can't reasonably disagree with that reading, though.

 

 

Again even the best defensive SS in the league provides little additional benefit over JJ.

 

I think this is a huge part of all the disagreements. The improvement that folks foresee Escobar eventually providing basically takes the SS defense from 'very good' to 'elite'. I wonder if there is a large statistical difference between 'very good' & 'elite', in terms of runs saved, etc. Is it more useful to think of the spectrum of defensive ability & production in linear terms, or is it closer to a sort of exponential curve? I'm headed to the statistical forum, and I apologize for dragging this thread even further off-topic...

[ILuvDaBush]

I was the one who said it and I thought I had since elaborated on it. Do you disagree that Sheets has never had a shortstop like Alcides? His range is absurd, and many people have compared Alcides to Elvis Andrus. I wish we could go all Plessy v Ferguson here and say "separate but equal"...which didn't seem to be in such bad taste until I realize I am, in fact, comparing two players of different ethnicity....but please trust that I say it in jest. But comparing Escobar to Hardy is not the topic here.

 

Sheets-Harden-Prior. All three are free agents. I only bring up Prior because he could be a reclamation project that could be very cheap and thus worthwhile.

[TooLiveBrew]

Prior's injury problems largely stem from his poor mechanics. I don't want to see the Brewers pursue him, even though I realize he's brought up basically just on name recognition.

 

Sheets & Harden are two I would love to see the Brewers pursue.

[TooLiveBrew]

Interesting piece on Eric Bedard from the Driveline Mechanics blog. He's an incredible health risk, but to be fair so are Sheets & Harden. The article closes by guesstimating he's worth a $4M contract, and I think I'd be happy to see Melvin go after that, even with the high probability that you'd only get a partial season from him. Even a 1-yr., $5M deal would seem like a decent gamble.

[endaround]

I just don't trust Bedard to be ready to go by June.

[twobrewers]

I love Bedard. But even when healthy - he doesn't go deep into games.

[thebruce44]

Every player playing SS for the Brewers will get similar positioning from the coaching staff. Why would it somehow help Hardy but not Escobar?

 

Hardy plays deeper than Escobar though, no? They look at the same spray charts for players, but beyond that, their positioning is dependent on their lateral range and arm strength.