Brewers Chances for FA Starters?

[dayzedcrewfan]

So what are the odds Milwaukee can entice one of the three type A free agent starting pitchers? I know Cliff Lee has a $8 mil option which I am sure the Phillies will pick up. And that leaves Randy Wolf and John Lackey as the two other type A's out there (correct me if I am wrong please). How good are the odds we get one of these in the FA market? Or am I dreaming big and it is more likely we get a Joel Piniero, Carl Pavano or a guy like Erik Bedard (even though his injury is in his throwing shoulder)? Even then I might be dreaming a little big. Or do we end up trying to sign a Justin Duchscherer or even bring Sheets back? Any ideas from the forum?

[joepepsi]

Seems like they have a renewed interest in Sheets. Lackey will probably re-up with the Angels or maybe Dodgers. It will be tough for the Brewers to get his attention. Is Randy Wolf really any better than Looper? They might have a shot at him.

[nate82]

Lackey will probably re-up with the Angels or maybe Dodgers. It will be tough for the Brewers to get his attention. Is Randy Wolf really any better than Looper? They might have a shot at him.

I believe the Angels have come out and said they doubt they will be able to resign Lackey. With their acquisition of Kazmir it looks very unlikely that the Angels will be able to resign Vlad, Lackey, and Abreu. The Angels will definitely resign Vlad so that will be even less money they will have for Lackey and Abreu. The Angels will then have to decide between Abreu and Lackey and this is where it gets interesting. The Angels look to be resigning Abreu which leaves Lackey out in the cold. Lackey has also stated he will not take a team friendly deal with the Angels or any other team because he already signed one team friendly deal already also with Lackey looking to get A.J. Burnett type of a contract it really does look like the Angels will be out of the running for Lackey.

 

Now for the Dodgers they also seem very unlikely to sign Lackey they also do not have the financial flexibility to sign Lackey. The Dodgers will definitely try to sign Wolf to a longer contract though.

 

Also don't forget about Hudson and Webb who both could become free agents this off season.

 

Here is the quote from John Heyman from SI,

The Angels aren't too confident they'll be able to retain John Lackey, who threw 7 1/3 scoreless innings in his Game 1 win and is on the cusp of free agency. One sign they aren't so confidence is the acquisition of Scott Kazmir, who makes a nice replacement. The Angels offered close to $60 million over four years. But word is, Lackey will seek at least the $82.5 million A.J. Burnett got. One scout said, "He's in a pretty good position as the best pitcher on the market."

That puts the Angels nearly out of the bidding for Lackey if the Angels do not offer that 5th year to Lackey. So Lackey is looking for at least $15-16m per year for 5-years. That is probably out of the Brewers price range also along with a lot of other teams.

[Invader3K]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Red Sox make a run at Lackey. Maybe they trade away some of their existing pitching depth to fill other needs, and sign Lackey. It's not like they can't afford him.

[DatHoser]

My hope would be for a signing of Sheets, Mulder, and Hudson and hope at least a couple of them stick. Short of that, two the the three mentioned plus a "solid" pitcher (Webb? - I can dream, can't I?). Realistically, signing three injury risks like S, M, & H could be the only hope the Crew has of filling starting spots somewhat affordably. Yes, if they all bomb out it's a lot of moola, but then again if all three stick you have a heckuva rotation.

[ILuvDaBush]

Sheets-Harden. As long as we get quality innings, I'll be happy. Harden was even better for the Cubs than CC was for the Brews last year. Sheets has never had a shortstop like Alcides and one need look no further than the Texas Rangers and their pitching resurgence from another slick-fielding rookie (Elvis Andrus). If they traded JJ/Hart (putting Gerut in a platoon with generic FA) and jettison the pitching machine that's flipped to the "Looper" setting, they could afford it. Let Seth McClung/Carlos Villanueva be the longman tandem and talk to the Cubs about exchanging Soup's contract for Bradley (shifting Gerut to center, if we can't re-sign Cameron).

 

Yo

Sheets

Harden

Parra

Bush

 

Our bullpen is set. I think Carlos and McClung have been mishandled repeatedly but both have seen their share of success. But both could also be inserted into the rotation if we ended up putting Parra/Bush in a package.

 

My top five hopes for next season's rotation (sans Lackey, because...well I would rather pay Prince):

1. Harden - When he's on....the mound.... Well he will probably be discounted slightly.

2. Sheets - Lack of interest this past year seems to have humbled him slightly. I would still be amenable to giving him $10M+ if he showed that he could still light it up in the low 90's with movement. I doubt that curve ever left him.

3. Harang - I know he's technically not a FA but with that contract and recent track record, he should come with a giant coupon, and I would much prefer him to Suppan... And honestly, I prefer him to most of what's available. Pineiro will probably get paid more than Harang's $12M+ next year. Again, the Cincy Commies will probably subsidize some of that contract.

4. Smoltz - I know it would be a longshot but the gent is Dave Bush-like in his reluctance to give a batter a free pass. He still has low 90's heat when needed, and it would make for a good swan song to go out with Trevor Hoffman.

5. Wolf - If we're going to go with a big-name, I would rather sign a Jason Schmidt-type deal with Wolf, considering we lack a quality lefty. Also, Wolf was very good for the Astros and only was allowed to leave when they ill-advisedly yanked a 3yr/$21M contract off the table write as he was righting his name. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[PilprinBuddha]

I think signing 3 guys makes sense if we are looking at guys like Sheets. (Or 2 if we acquire a pitcher with Hardy and or Hart)

 

Bedard, Harden, Sheets, Mulder, or other injury ? types. I know many want to resign Cameron, but I think that is a luxury we cannot afford. I'd like to see us move Hardy and Hart in order to acquire a CF and pitcher or catcher. Throw Gamel in RF and go with that. I'd love to bring Lopez back, but there are no guarantees that you will ever see the 2009 Lopez again.

[yoshii8]

. I know many want to resign Cameron, but I think that is a luxury we cannot afford.

I think he is more important to the Brewers than most people think, especially defensively. He automatically makes our pitching staff better.

[Hate those Rodents]

. I know many want to resign Cameron, but I think that is a luxury we cannot afford.

I think he is more important to the Brewers than most people think, especially defensively. He automatically makes our pitching staff better.

I don't know about this. If true, it sure didn't impact a horrid rotation this year, as evidenced both by the numbers and by our eyes watching our team give up so many runs.

 

Even if this is true, it might be just like when Tampa Bay had the best pass blocking LT in the game in Paul Gruber. Yeah, he's a great pass blocker, but with a horrible surrounding cast, they are not going to score points anyway. Yet, if Tampa Bay gets a better and more talented cast around them, they will be better and be able to score even without the best LT in the game.

 

Just sayin that 8-10 million for next year is a HUGE decision that needs to be well thought out. We need to get the pitching or know that we will get the pitching before we spend that money on Cameron.

[yoshii8]

Who do you think we should get to play CF? Just because our pitching was really bad this season, doesn't mean Cam's defense didn't have an impact. He is one of the top centerfielders in baseball, and centerfield is one of the most important positions. I think even at $10 million its money well spent. I believe Cameron is a key to our ballclub, and we will still be able to acquire 2-3 pitchers through trades and a 6-7 million a year fa starter.

[And That]

Who do you think we should get to play CF?

I prefer keeping Cameron, but to play devil's advocate here for a second... Jody Gerut's UZR in CF has been good in his time there. I'm sure there would be a drop off defensively (and offensively) from Cam to Gerut, but if the Brewers can get a #1/#2 with Cameron's savings I'm pretty comfortable with Gerut out there.

[joepepsi]

I'm not convinced Gerut is worse offensively than Cameron. His career rate stats are similar. I realize since his major injury he's not been an everyday player, so we can't know for sure how he'll hold up as a regular.

[Hate those Rodents]

Precisely my thoughts And That. If there is unexpectedly a horrible trade market for our chips and we need to rely on free agency to get our two new starters, I'd hate to only land one and have Cam back as opposed to upgrading two spots in the rotation and going with a lesser expense in CF.

 

ETA - I don't have the stats in front of me, but I believe Gerut had a nice year at the plate as recently as 2008.

[And That]

Not to take this too far off course... if the Brewers go with Gerut in CF, I'm pretty sure they'd platoon him with a right handed guy in order to get the platoon advantage and not force 600 PA on Gerut. They'd probably shoot to give Gerut 400-500 PA.

 

It's a tough call - Cameron is exceedingly valuable, but the Brewers are truly hurting for quality pitching.

[logan82]

Sheets has never had a shortstop like Alcides and one need look no further than the Texas Rangers and their pitching resurgence from another slick-fielding rookie (Elvis Andrus).

 

Hardy is one of the best defensive SS in all of baseball. Escobar right now is probably about average with the talent to be as good as JJ in the future. He isn't as good defensively as JJ yet and probably will not be in 2010.

[Thurston Fluff]

I thought we should have went after Wolf last season. He is left handed and was coming back for some injuries that depressed his value. Now he has put in a pretty decent year and will be more expensive but probably still as good a pitcher as we can hope to land. If he was willing to do a shorter deal for more per year I would jump all over that. We might have to pay more than he is worth but that is the case for any free agent. It is the most expensive way to go but a lefty with good stuff and a decent track record is pretty much what the doctor ordered. If we land him then it would be time to focus on a young pitcher who is cheap during the same time Wolf costs us more than he is truly worth so his cost is offset.

[thebruce44]

Hardy is one of the best defensive SS in all of baseball. Escobar right now is probably about average with the talent to be as good as JJ in the future. He isn't as good defensively as JJ yet and probably will not be in 2010.

 

Defense is pretty subjective to me since I don't trust many of the metrics. That is your opinion and it is fine, but I don't agree with it necessarily. I would say JJ is an above average defender, probably around 9 or 10. I think over a full year Escobar will also be above average, probably right around 10, but with a very good chance to eventually move up to top 5.

[nate82]

I thought we should have went after Wolf last season.

Except Wolf wants to and likes to be playing near the west coast for whatever reason. I don't believe the Brewers were even in the running to get Wolf last year even if they did go after him.

[logan82]

thebruce44 wrote:

Defense is pretty subjective to me since I don't trust many of the metrics. That is your opinion and it is fine, but I don't agree with it necessarily. I would say JJ is an above average defender, probably around 9 or 10. I think over a full year Escobar will also be above average, probably right around 10, but with a very good chance to eventually move up to top 5.

How is measuring outs within a zone subjective? He converts balls into outs at a rate higher than most SS. It isn't my opinion. It is measured. I will certainly go with something measured objectively than the observations of any one person.

 

There are faults with defensive metrics, but to just out ans out dismiss them seems like an overreaction.

[Hate those Rodents]

Again though, beyond numbers, you can look use the eye test, which I personally prefer. I am not advocating that as the right answer over all stats. But Escobar has far more range, a quicker release, and I believe a better arm. Definitely more tools to be better in 2010, though I am not sure he'll end up being the better defensive SS in 2010.

[thebruce44]

How is measuring outs within a zone subjective? He converts balls into outs at a rate higher than most SS. It isn't my opinion. It is measured.

 

 

I never said calculating Zone Rating is subjective. I said defense is subjective, as in the way players would be ranked by various people. To say "Hardy is one of the best defensive SS in all of baseball" is your opinion. If you meant to say, "according to zone rating, JJ is one of the best defensive SS in all of baseball" that is a different discussion, but you didn't indicate that at all in your post.

[Thurston Fluff]

I will certainly go with something measured objectively than the observations of any one person.

 

If you go by the sample sizes there are to work with you can't find anything more from measured stats than you can from eyeballing it or listening to what people in the know say. It is impossible to compare the two using ZR at this point. From comments made by Melvin like he is a once in a generation defensive shortstop or Gord Ash who said he makes a spectacular play a couple times a week I think we can know more about their defensive abilities than what ZR tells us. Hardy is very good but Escobar is supposed to be great. Until we have more numbers to work with ZR is useless.

 

Except Wolf wants to and likes to be playing near the west coast for whatever reason. I don't believe the Brewers were even in the running to get Wolf last year even if they did go after him.

 

Maybe so. But I tend to think money changes minds. I hope it can anyway.

[thebruce44]

It is impossible to compare the two using ZR at this point.

 

Agreed.

 

Off the top of my head, I believe you need something like 3 years worth of data to actually conclude anything. You could possibly say Hardy is a top defensive SS based purely on ZR though (even though I think that is still incorrect). To say he is one of the best defensive SS overall though as Logan did is certainly a matter of opinion in my mind, regardless of what ZR tells us.

 

With the amount of defensive positioning the Brewers do, I would never want to base my opinion on that. I would factor it in, as I did when I said I think Hardy is around 10. Being conservative, I still say Escobar will be around there next year, but in the back of my mind I expect him to be top 5 very quickly.

[logan82]

I will certainly go with something measured objectively than the observations of any one person.

 

If you go by the sample sizes there are to work with you can't find anything more from measured stats than you can from eyeballing it or listening to what people in the know say. It is impossible to compare the two using ZR at this point. From comments made by Melvin like he is a once in a generation defensive shortstop or Gord Ash who said he makes a spectacular play a couple times a week I think we can know more about their defensive abilities than what ZR tells us. Hardy is very good but Escobar is supposed to be great. Until we have more numbers to work with ZR is useless.

UZR not ZR is what I would look at to start with. Hardy has enough innings to make UZR very useful and it shows him to be one of the top SS in the league. Escobar has the tools to be a very good SS. His inconsistency right now makes Hardy better. Melvin/Ash say Escobar makes spectacular plays and will be a great defensive SS in the future. They don't say he is currently a great defensive SS.

[Hate those Rodents]

You could say the same thing about Prince Fielder offensively when he was up to DH when Overbay was on the team though. Melvin's quote was probably something like "he will be a great offensive player in the future but isn't yet because he hasn't proven it at this level". I don't think we'll lose anything defensively when Escobar takes over next year. We very well might gain a bit, just as we did when we replaced a solid, good player in Lyle Overbay.