2010 batting order

[1992casey]

I know I will get bashed for this, and I probably deserve it, but I think it makes sense. Speed causes frustration and mistakes.

 

Well, it does make sense. It's just that analysis generally demonstrates that people tend to overrate the overall impact of speed.

[sheetswannabe]

Logan, this is a batting order thread. Obviously the problem was pitching. But the problem on offense was baserunning and stolen bases.

[logan82]

There was little or no problem with the offense last year.

 

Also, we will be able to do more hit and runs.

 

I cannot stress enough how much I dislike hit and runs. Making your batter swing weakly at a bad pitch just to protect a runner seems like a very, very bad idea.

 

Also, you guys are acting like Gomez will hit 0 doubles. He is probably good for 25+ doubles, and factor in a good amount of steals.

 

Nobody is saying that. What they are saying is that practically every single other regular player will get on base at a better rate than either Gomez or Escobar. This makes their speed mostly irrelevant. I think you are going to be severely disappointed if you expect people to be happy that the Brewers traded a lot of OBP and SLG for speed in 2010.

[TooLiveBrew]

The problem on offense imo was at SS & C. Like Casey noted, speed is way overrated.

[TooLiveBrew]

I plugged the 2010 CHONE projections into Baseball Musing's Lineup Optimizer tool. The results from the CHONE data are here. I literally did a double-take when I saw the first lineup it returned (averaging 5.14 runs per game):

Weeks

Fielder

Gomez

Braun

Escobar

Hart

McGehee

Pitcher

Zaun

Of course, the optimizing tool doesn't factor in that there's no way you'll be able to bat Fielder or Braun anywhere but #3 or #4. Literally every result batted the pitcher 8th, with Zaun the most common #9 hitter. It's pretty interesting how often the tool has the same guys (Gomez, Escobar, Zaun) batting 3rd or 9th. I didn't run it with Gamel as the starting 3B, even though he's who I'd prefer.

[Tedaldtada]

Those are very interesting results. A lot of posters here want Escobar and Gomez in the bottom third and this thing tells us to bat them 5th and 3rd. The CHONE projections for those two wasn't really all that horrible though. Very interesting.

Edit: Grammar

[logan82]

To be honest I think CHONE is more optimistic about Weeks Gomez and Escobar than most BF.neters. It is also slightly more pessimistic about McGehee. If you make some adjustments you get much different results.

[randybreuerfan]

I'm in the process of deciding whether to be excited for the Brewers this year. The bullpen is set. Starting pitching is a little better than last year in February. For me, though, the things that could lead to excitement:

Weeks being healthy and effective,

Escobar playing stronger than he looks,

and Hart learning plate discipline and fielding well.

 

It is unfortunate that the Brewers are counting on so many players playing to their potential. Is it really possible for:

2 of Gomez, Gerut, Edmonds, and Hart,

Escobar,

2 of Weeks, McGehee, and Gamel,

Bush (I really think we need a second effective RH starter)

2 of Parra, Narveson, Capuano, and Davis

 

to play to their potential or beyond?

 

I'm a hope springs attorney type of guy, but the lineup jwon't be very exciting -- wait for Braun and Fielder every 3rd inning -- without 3-4 other people hitting up to or beyond expectations.

1 - Weeks

2 - Hart/Gerut

3 - Braun

4 - Fielder

5 - McGehee

6 - Zaun/Edmonds

7 - Escobar

8 - Gomez/Other catcher

9 - Pitcher

[berniebrewer4life]

Man, i hope i am right here.

 

1 - Weeks

2 - Gomez

3 - Braun

4 - Fielder

5 - McGehee

6 - Escobar

7 - Gerut

8 - Lucroy(why not?)

9 - Pitcher

[brewtank34]

Bernie...

If Gerut is in the line-up starting day, it should be interesting to see what Melvin is able to get from trading Hart. And if this happens, I'm not so sure Gerut would get the starting nod. I think Edmunds would most be the starter and Gerut still the 4th OF. To your question of "why not?" for Lucroy is that Melvin signed Greg Zaun this offseason. I doubt they brought him in and are going to pay him $2 million to ride the bench. I can almost guarantee that Zaun will be the starting C baring any injury. I actually feel that Lucroy will be in AAA and our back-up cather will be Kottaras.

 

As much as I hate Weeks being the lead-off...it sure does sound like Macha's going to keep him in the lead-off position (as reported at the recent Brewers Winter days event). I'm very upset about this because I think the Brewers would be better with Weeks in the #2 or #5 hole.

 

With this though...I'll now go with:

Weeks

Hart/Gomez

Braun

Fielder

McGahee

Gomez/Hart

Zaun

Pitcher

Escobar

 

If Hart comes out of this Arbi hearing pissed off and motivated to show the upper brass they were wrong about him, I think Hart in the 2 hole could be very good for the Crew. With that said, I'm freaked out about the possibility of having Gomez,Zaun,Pitcher and Escobar rounding up our line-up.

[Hotdog]

I would love to see Mat Gamel starting at 3B for the Crew. If that happens, I like this set up for the righty/lefty

Escobar or Gomez
Gamel Weeks
Braun Braun
Fielder Fielder
Weeks Hart
Hart/Gerut Gamel
Zaun Escobar
Pitcher Zaun
Gomez Pitcher

If McGhee starts at the corner

Gomez/Escobar
Weeks
Braun
Fielder
McGhee
Hart/Gerut
Zaun
Pitcher
Escobar/Gomez

[NievesNoNO]

1. Weeks

2. McGhee

3. Braun

4. Fielder

5. Hart

6. Escobar

7. Gomez

8. Lucroy/Zaun

9. Pitcher

[berniebrewer4life]

Bernie...

If Gerut is in the line-up starting day, it should be interesting to see what Melvin is able to get from trading Hart. And if this happens, I'm not so sure Gerut would get the starting nod. I think Edmunds would most be the starter and Gerut still the 4th OF. To your question of "why not?" for Lucroy is that Melvin signed Greg Zaun this offseason. I doubt they brought him in and are going to pay him $2 million to ride the bench. I can almost guarantee that Zaun will be the starting C baring any injury. I actually feel that Lucroy will be in AAA and our back-up cather will be Kottaras.

I don't think Edmonds will make the team, so i am not counting him. I am putting Gerut in front of Hart because i think he will have a very nice spring, and i think Hart will continue to struggle. I am sure Zaun will be the starter at Catcher(however, i doubt the 2 million dollar contract has anything to do with it, as that isn't that much in today's world), but for fun's sake, i put Lucroy in there, hoping he can impress enough to force his way into the lineup.

[Baldkin]

Weeks

Zaun

Braun

Fielder

McGeehee

Hart

Escobar

Gomez

[clancyphile]

2b: Weeks

3b: McGehee

lf: Braun

1b: Fielder

cf: Hart

rf: Edmonds

c: Zaun

ss: Escobar

pitcher

[dlk9s]

This is assuming everyone plays at least decently compared to their potential (meaning: I don't need Hart to hit .330 and have 40 HR's, but let's not have a .230, 7 HR season, either):

 

Weeks

Escobar

Braun

Fielder

McGehee

Hart

Gomez

Zaun

P

 

I went with Escobar in the 2-slot to help stay out of DP's ahead of Braun (don't know his DP stats, but I assume with his speed, he does ok) and create some havoc on the basepaths with Weeks. McGehee behind the boppers because his pitch selection has been good and he has some pop. Zaun 8th because if Gomez can get on base at least somewhat frequently, I'd rather have a legit hitter behind him instead of the pitcher, which would waste his speed.

 

I wouldn't be against McGehee or Hart in the 2-hole, either.

[TooLiveBrew]

I really, really, really want Gamel to win the 3B job in Spring Training. Not just because I think his ceiling is really high, but because there's really not one hitter aside from him I want to see hitting second right now. I guess if I was forced to choose it would be McGehee or Hart, but I'm nearly 100% certain Macha would never do that because he needs to 'protect' Prince. Gamel is a perfect bat to hit second, I just hope he earns & gets the chance.

 

I'm worried that Zaun or Escobar will be batting second, which would just not be a good thing imo.

[logan82]

I went with Escobar in the 2-slot to help stay out of DP's ahead of Braun(don't know his DP stats, but I assume with his speed, he does ok)

 

He actually does really poorly in double plays. He hit into more double plays than Kendall last year. He was 2nd on the AAA team in double plays hit into.

 

Zaun 2nd wouldn't be to bad since he is likely to have a pretty decent OBP. Alternating Zaun and Hart in the 2 spot based on the handedness of the opposing pitcher might be a good idea.

[TooLiveBrew]

If Gamel isn't an option, I agree that Zaun v. RHP & Hart/McGehee v. LHP probably makes the most sense at the 2-spot. I just hope Zaun doesn't see many PAs v. LHP, let alone bat second against them. His career splits are alright, but he was pretty dreadful against lefties in '08 & '09. Even if he's limited to primarily facing righties, he should be a very nice pickup.

[logan82]

I think there is probably about zero chance Gamel makes the MLB club unless there is an injury or I hope there is. I would hate to see Gamel up as a bench player. I agree he would be a really good fit as a #2 hitter. He should have a decent OBP and has some speed, not basestealing fast but taking an extra base fast.

[Tbadder]

Man oh man do these line-ups look weak. Really. I was concerned about the hitting conceptually with the jettisoning of Cameron, but when I look at the postings I see five or six weak spots in the batting order. Weeks I'm fine with. I still believe in his talent and will be the least surprised person on earth if he has a breakout year. But geez after Braun and Fielder I see a bunch of low achievers and red flags popping up. Looking at these line-ups I hope that Gamel wins the 3rd base job as well. I'll also be rooting for Gerut to do well and take most of the starts. But truly Gomez, Hart, Zaun, Escobar, Casey scare the beegeebers outta me. I would definitely not be afraid to face the Crew if I was an over replacement value pitcher. Fielder is gonna put up Ruthian Bond-like walk numbers maybe.

 

I think Macha will go:

 

Weeks

Hart

Braun

Fielder

McGehee

Zaun

Escobar

Gomez

Pitcher

 

My line up

 

Weeks

Gamel

Braun

Fielder

Gerut (ouch)

Zaun

Escobar

Gomez

Pitcher

 

with Gallardo hitting in front of Gomez when he pitches

[SDOwen28]

Man oh man do these line-ups look weak. Really. I was concerned about the hitting conceptually with the jettisoning of Cameron, but when I look at the postings I see five or six weak spots in the batting order. Weeks I'm fine with. I still believe in his talent and will be the least surprised person on earth if he has a breakout year. But geez after Braun and Fielder I see a bunch of low achievers and red flags popping up. Looking at these line-ups I hope that Gamel wins the 3rd base job as well. I'll also be rooting for Gerut to do well and take most of the starts. But truly Gomez, Hart, Zaun, Escobar, Casey scare the beegeebers outta me. I would definitely not be afraid to face the Crew if I was an over replacement value pitcher. Fielder is gonna put up Ruthian Bond-like walk numbers maybe.

 

I think Macha will go:

 

Weeks

Hart

Braun

Fielder

McGehee

Zaun

Escobar

Gomez

Pitcher

 

My line up

 

Weeks

Gamel

Braun

Fielder

Gerut (ouch)

Zaun

Escobar

Gomez

Pitcher

 

with Gallardo hitting in front of Gomez when he pitches

I dont think Gamel will make the team. I do want McGehee hitting 5 though, I think he is our best hitter after Braun and Fielder. He wasnt lucky last year, you can tell by his solid contact he was making. He is going to see many fastballs with Fielder getting pitched around.

 

 

[HOF4canrake]

I know Macha will probably stick to the Braun 3rd, Fielder 4th so my lineup is probably moot...but I like a mix of "old-school" baseball thinking and the new school stats, so here's what I would probably go with...

 

1 - Weeks

2 - Braun

3 - Hart

4 - Fielder

5 - McGehee

6 - Zaun

7 - Gomez

8 - Pitcher

9 - Escobar

 

I did hear that Macha is toying with the pitcher batting 8th. I think with Escobar 9, he's like the leadoff hitter but without the pressure. It also gives the Brewers a chance to use Weeks power more effectively by having a "real batter" hit in front of him with a decent chance of getting on base. I generally agree with having your best 2 hitters at the 2 and 4 spots, especially since statistics show the 3 hitter coming up so often with no one on base...plus with the pitcher hitting 8th, Braun's kind of hitting 3rd anyway.

 

Maybe Hart gets some better pitches to hit in front of Fielder...though I know general stats say it makes no difference, there will be a handful of games where a pitcher will work differently to avoid Fielder, then it's up to Hart to take advantage and lay off sliders away.

[logan82]

Hitting ninth would be like being the leadoff hitter without the 144 extra at bats.

 

Macha said he would make the linup like this if he did it today. We'll see how it ends up at the end of spring training. Link

 

1. Rickie Weeks, 2B

2. Casey McGehee, 3B

3. Ryan Braun, LF

4. Prince Fielder, 1B

5. Corey Hart, RF

6. Gregg Zaun, C

7. Carlos Gomez, CF

8. Pitcher

9. Alcides Escobar, SS

 

Then of course there is this quote.

"We'll have to see," Macha said. "I tried Escobar there last year, and

the key is you've got to get on base. If you get somebody who gets on

at a .360 [on-base percentage] rate, then it has some advantages. It

may be something to look at a bit further."

Ugh, if a guy is getting on at that rate they need to be much higher in the order.

[HOF4canrake]

Well, until Escobar shows a consistent ability to get on base in the big leagues - however you want to determine his success - I don't know that there is a better spot for him considering he won't hit for much power and you'd like to use his base-stealing ability. If you hit him directly in front of Braun, you don't want to take those risks... And I'd rather give Weeks those extra ABs.