2010 batting order

[sheetswannabe]

How can you deny that he can hit? Can you show me some proof of him not being a good hitter. He's not a world beater by any means, but he can hit. So therefore, Escobar fits both descriptions.

[kramnoj]

It depends on how you define hitter. If you limit hitting to batting average, Escobar does well. If you consider hitting to be all things that happen when the player has a bat in his hands, Escobar falls short. Batting average is less meaningful than on base or slugging when it comes to how many runs are scored.

 

Based on that, Escobar is not expected to be one of the Brewers better offensive players in 2010, and shouldn't be given more opportunities than better players.

[Ennder]

think if he hit ahead of Braun and Fielder, and got 650 plate appearences, I would project him at .302/.346/.413, with 180 hits, 28 doubles, 9 triples, 8 HR, 38 stolen bases in 46 attempts, 103 runs scored, 51 RBI, 45 BB/HBP, 10 sacrifice bunts, and 68 K's

 

I sure hope you are right. Personally I expect a line more like .280/.320/.360. It won't surprise me if Gomez out hits Escobar this season.

[TooLiveBrew]

If a guy steals 50 bases thats like hitting 50 doubles, you are in scoring position 50 more times

 

That's not how it works, even if you are 50-for-50 in SB attempts. 2Bs are still far more valuable, since they carry more SLG as well. Once you weigh in the fact that no one is going to go 50-50 in SB attempts, the CSs also are really costly & not even close to hitting 50 2Bs.

[Hate those Rodents]

I think it'd be nice to sort of groom Gomez and Escobar at the one-two spots in the order. It might be painful at times, but they could learn on the job. I guess it's my idea of sort of building for the future while still trying to make the playoffs. It could pay off big though. This would enable Rickie to hit fifth and make the bottom of the order quite strong.

[logan82]

I think it'd be nice to sort of groom Gomez and Escobar at the one-two spots in the order. It might be painful at times, but they could learn on the job. I guess it's my idea of sort of building for the future while still trying to make the playoffs. It could pay off big though. This would enable Rickie to hit fifth and make the bottom of the order quite strong.

I agree that we should groom Escobar and Gomez for hitting in the #1 and #2 spots in the order. We can do that by switching them every other day in the 9th spot in the order. Your idea to try and make the playoffs is to bat our worst 2 hitters #1 and #2. I can't stress enough how bad that idea is. You also want the bottom of the order to look strong. Why would we want to make the bottom of the order look strong instead of the top of the order when the top of the order gets way more at bats. The moves you suggest would give our 2 worst hitter 200 extra at bats over the course of the season. That is a terrible idea.

[Hate those Rodents]

Thanks for your support Logan!!!

[topper09er]

Offensive runs (or linear weights method) whether you agree with it or not (I fully dont but that is another subject) is as follows:

 

.47*1B + .78*2B + 1.09*3B + 1.4*HR + .33*(BB+HB) - .27*(AB-H) +.3*SB -.52*CS - .02K

 

so 50 doubles is worth 50*.78 =~ 39 runs,

 

50 times on base (assuming a Escobar's career minor league BB% that would be 3 walks plus 47 singles) plus 50 NET stolen bases (notice a CS is comparatively worse than a SB is good, so to using Escobar's career 75% SB rate to get 50 steals he would need to go 50 for 66)

is worth 47*.47 + 3*.33 + 50*.3 - .52*16 =~ 30 runs

 

That should not be taken to precisely but it does show they are not as equal

[sheetswannabe]

Well obviously it wouldn't be exact. But it is pretty close. I just think when you add a ton of speed, and a good stick ( not saying hes patient) it gives you the ability to make more things happen.

[TooLiveBrew]

10 runs is equal to one win in terms of player valuation. I'm not sure if this is a similar/the same scale, but if it is, then no it is not all that close.

[1992casey]

When I look at topper09er's message, I see about 33% more "things" happening if Escobar's singles/BBs/HBPs plus stolen bases all become doubles. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Putting it more simply, a double can score a runner from first. A stolen base doesn't advance another runner at all.

[topper09er]

Well obviously it wouldn't be exact. But it is pretty close. I just think when you add a ton of speed, and a good stick ( not saying hes patient) it gives you the ability to make more things happen.

It is better to have speed then to not have speed, but it is better to have a higher slugging % than a lower sluggin % + speed. Your point gets a little better is you assume Escobar is a leadoff hitter because he will have fewer men on base, however, it would be very bad to be caught stealing with Braun/Fielder coming up. So as a leadoff hitter you can assume a double is worth slightly less than .78 runs, but a caught stealing is worse than only -.52 runs.

[snyttri]

?They seemed to think there was something wrong with the way we played baseball, with speed and defense and line-drive hitters. They called it "Whitey-ball" and said it couldn't last.?

-Whitey Herzog

 

It didn't last, because they got rid of most of the artificial surfaces.

[ELCABALLO45]

Im sure this line up has already been posted but, here would be mine..

 

 

Weeks

Escobar

Braun

Fielder

Hart

Gamel

Zaun

Gomez

P

 

Obviously Escobar is not the greatest guy at the top of the order however, I would like to split up Escobar and Gomez. And I think Hart will have a really good season this year.

[logan82]

If Gamel is in your lineup he would be a much better #2 hitter than Escobar. Better OBP and better power. Would also be nice to have 2 lefties sandwiching Braun.

[rluzinski]

Well obviously it wouldn't be exact. But it is pretty close. I just think when you add a ton of speed, and a good stick ( not saying hes patient) it gives you the ability to make more things happen.

If you assume that those stolen base attempts never result in a caught stealing, it's pretty close. If you assume even a 75% steal rate, it's not.

[mletto157]

Exactly, because if they never result in a CS, than the only difference is when people are on base (runners don't advance as much), which could be slightly less for a lead off hitter. However, if you assume 25% of the time he gets caught, than you're really only looking at 37-38 "doubles" that don't advance runners as well... instead of the original 50 doubles, which is a big difference.

[Ennder]

Exactly, because if they never result in a CS, than the only difference is when people are on base (runners don't advance as much), which could be slightly less for a lead off hitter. However, if you assume 25% of the time he gets caught, than you're really only looking at 37-38 "doubles" that don't advance runners as well... instead of the original 50 doubles, which is a big difference.

You would be looking at 37 doubles and 13 extra outs which I can't imagine is terribly valuable.

[topper09er]

Offensive runs (or linear weights method) whether you agree with it or not (I fully dont but that is another subject) is as follows:

 

.47*1B + .78*2B + 1.09*3B + 1.4*HR + .33*(BB+HB) - .27*(AB-H) +.3*SB -.52*CS - .02K

 

so 50 doubles is worth 50*.78 =~ 39 runs,

 

50 times on base (assuming a Escobar's career minor league BB% that would be 3 walks plus 47 singles) plus 50 NET stolen bases (notice a CS is comparatively worse than a SB is good, so to using Escobar's career 75% SB rate to get 50 steals he would need to go 50 for 66)

is worth 47*.47 + 3*.33 + 50*.3 - .52*16 =~ 30 runs

 

That should not be taken to precisely but it does show they are not as equal

I made a small mistake with this because we are comparing the 2 over a sample of 50 PAs, and I am saying Escobar has 66 SB attempts when he was only on base 50 times, so it should be:

50 doubles = 50*.78 =~39 runs

47 1B + 3 BB + (Ill assume a 80% SB clip which is VERY high) 40 SB + 10 CS = 47*.47 + 3*.33+40*.3-10*.52 =~ 30 runs (the difference is very small)

 

This does show something which does not make sense to me, that a 2B is worth .78 runs but a single + SB is worth .77 runs. These seem far too close because they both have the same run scoring oppurtunity but a double obviously has more RBI oppurtunity so it seems like it should be more valuable. I guess the difference must come when you look at an entire season worth of stats and factor in CS also...but according to this formula a player who goes 3 for 3 on stolen bases produces the same as a player with 0 SB and 3 more doubles..does not seem right.

[logan82]

It does seem a little close but I think there are many times a guy who would score on a double might also score on a single.

[rluzinski]

This does show something which does not make sense to me, that a 2B is worth .78 runs but a single + SB is worth .77 runs.

 

Your value for a SB looks a little high. These are the values I typically use:

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html

 

1B + SB= .474 + .195 = .669 runs

2B = .764 runs

 

Roughly speaking, the "moving runners over" portion of a double is worth about .1 runs greater than a single. That sounds reasonable. Keep in mind, however, these run values are still only estimates and are dependent on the sample used.

 

It would be interesting to see how much the "moving runners over" run values differ by batter type. A slugger's average single is going to score more runners on second than speedy bunter with no power. Probably not too much.

[1992casey]

Russ, does the .195 value for a SB include CS, or does that have to be factored in separately?

[rluzinski]

Russ, does the .195 value for a SB include CS, or does that have to be factored in separately?

 

That is simply the positive run value of a successful steal. To calculate the average run value of a stolen base attempt, you have consider the expected rate of SB to attempts [something like SB / (SB + CS + PO)].

[sheetswannabe]

Players hit more singles then doubles, you cant always rely on every player slugging .450+, what were the Brewers missing last year? A guy who can steal the bases, having Braun as our top base stealer last year is kind of sad actually, especially when hes hitting in front of Prince. When a guy is on first and a pitcher thinks he might be running, that puts the thought of something else into his head instead of just trying to get the next guy out. Also, we will be able to do more hit and runs. I know I will get bashed for this, and I probably deserve it, but I think it makes sense. Speed causes frustration and mistakes.

 

Also, you guys are acting like Gomez will hit 0 doubles. He is probably good for 25+ doubles, and factor in a good amount of steals.

[logan82]

what were the Brewers missing last year?

 

Pitching. Their offense was just fine.