2010 batting order

[kramnoj]

Cameron's suspension was for amphetamines, not steroids. Just wanted to make sure that was clear. And as far as I can see, he does just fine without them.

[greeg35]

edited. thank you for correcting that.

[clancyphile]

This has been debated a lot; but I still think he meant he would take less than he would make on the open market, not necessarily less than he makes right now. I think we got him at a discount last time because of the pending suspension situation. Maybe the open market is different enough now that we would get him for less; but he is coming off some pretty darn above average years.

If Cameron will stay, great. If not... move Hart to center, platoon Gamel/McGehee in left, shift Braun to right, and park Escobar at third.

[wibadgers23]

Now that Gomez is on board, things get a little more interesting with the batting order. What is everybody thinking? As of now, I'll go with:

1. Weeks 2b

2. Escobar SS

3. Braun LF

4. Prince 1b

5. McGehee 3b

6. Hart RF

7. Gomez CF

8. Catcher (whoever that might be)

[sbrylski]

Now that Gomez is on board, things get a little more interesting with the batting order. What is everybody thinking? As of now, I'll go with:

1. Weeks 2b

2. Escobar SS

3. Braun LF

4. Prince 1b

5. McGehee 3b

6. Hart RF

7. Gomez CF

8. Catcher (whoever that might be)

I think that's a pretty good guess. I'm thinking we end up bringing in an Olivo or Doumit though, who would bat 6th or 7th and push Gomez to 8th.

[monkeyman343434]

This is what I would hope for as of now, although I know they would never do this:

1. Escobar SS

2. Geret/Hart RHP/LHP platoon RF

3. Braun LF

4. Fielder 1B

5. Weeks 2B

6. Gamel 3B

7. Catcher (Salome/LuCroy/Olivo/Doumit/ aka whoever they end up getting)

8. Gomez CF

 

i'd love to see that lineup gel in 2010 and then watch it grow even more in 2011 after a year of experience together, seeing as that whole lineup would still be under control for 2011 (other than Geret/Hart)

[monkeyman343434]

GP AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BA OBP SLG OPS

162 713 104 175 47 7 20 296 81 0.245 0.294 0.415 0.709

162 666 115 204 45 11 17 322 76 0.306 0.376 0.483 0.86

162 613 123 173 27 4 36 316 103 0.282 0.392 0.515 0.908

162 634 106 175 38 4 44 353 141 0.276 0.357 0.557 0.914

162 611 106 155 35 3 39 313 109 0.254 0.345 0.512 0.857

162 624 90 169 34 3 29 296 84 0.271 0.343 0.474 0.818

162 623 71 166 29 2 15 244 88 0.266 0.313 0.392 0.704

162 554 58 133 38 1 16 221 61 0.24 0.337 0.399 0.736

 

This is a breakdown of the Phillies offense, which lead the NL in runs scored, by position in the batting order. I think this is a pretty good idea of what the Brewers should try to aim for.

In the leadoff role, I think Escobar would have no problem putting up a line of .245/.294/.415/.709 next year. The #2 and #5 holes are what get tricky, as I believe Braun and Fielder can again match 3Utley/4Howard in 2010. Would the platoon situation of Geret and Hart be able to post a line of .306/.376/.483 in 2010 with Hart's poor on-base skills? Geret's career line vs RHP is .279/.339/.463/.803. And for the #5 spot, I think Weeks would fall a bit short of that line in 2010 even if he stays healthy the whole year, but the avg and obp look about what Weeks could do, just not quite the slugging. I really think McGehee, or perferably Gamel, would be able to post the line out of the 6 spot, and i think whoever is brought in to catch could match the output of the 7 hole. With Gomez hitting in front of the pitcher, and Svuem helping Gomez learn some plate discipline as he really helped out Braun for 2009 draw more walks, I think Gomez could reach those numbers out of the 8 spot as well, along with a little platoon action with Geret(CF)/Hart(RF) with one hitting in the 2 hole and the other in the 8.

 

Just thought that was an interesting comparision, seeing as they have just made 2 straight World Series, and lead the NL in runs scored in 2009

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think lineup projections at this point are going to be very useful come opening day, since I don't think Melvin & Co. are done, but if I were calling the shots at this point, here's what I'd do (with the understanding that you aren't actually going to be able to get Prince or Braun to bat second):

 

8 Cameron

5 Gamel

7 Braun

3 Fielder

4 McGehee

9 Hart

2 Salome

1 P

6 Escobar

 

 

I would have Gomez at Nashville to start the season, and would explore trading Cameron if/when Gomez displays more than a low to mid-.800s OPS at AAA. Actually, for TLB the GM, I'd also explore what kind of pitching you could get with an offer anchored by Gomez+McGehee.

 

I omitted Weeks from the lineup since his rehab from tendon sheath surgery will likely be one calendar year again, which would have him really physically ready to go in May or so (iirc). Once Weeks would get back, he'd bat leadoff, with Cam sliding to #5... McGehee would go to the bench or be traded.

[Ennder]

I don't think McGehee full time at 2B is going to be viable. I also highly doubt Escobar starts the season batting 2nd with Macha as manager for the people putting him there. If we aren't convinced Weeks will be healthy they will bring back Counsell or Lopez to play 2B I bet.

[nate82]

Weeks should really be a #2 or #5 hitter more so a #2 but I like Gamel in the #2 spot over Weeks though. If Gomez had a better OBP I would put him up at the lead off spot and move Weeks down to the #5 hole and have McGehee in the 6th spot.

 

1. Gomez (CF)

2. Gamel (RF)

3. Braun (LF)

4. Fielder (1B)

5. Weeks (2B)

6. McGehee (3B)

7. Salome/Lucroy/Rivera/FA ©

8. Escobar (SS)

9. Pitcher

 

But obviously Gomez doesn't have the OBP skills needed to be at the top of the order and the Brewers look reluctant to move Gamel to the OF. Athletically Gamel could play the OF and he could transition there about as well as Braun and Hart did take that as a good or a bad compliment for Gamel. Gamel should really be the teams #2 hitter behind someone like Gomez or Escobar. I would rather see Weeks in the 5th or 6th spot in the lineup but he could also be a good #2 hitter behind Gomez or Escobar.

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree on McGehee at 2B, Ennder, but I'd be willing to take my lumps with him there until Weeks returns since he'll hit alright. You're probably right, though, that Counsell would be the fill-in.

 

And nate82: I was just thinking that maybe leaving Cam (in my dream-world) atop the lineup & hitting Weeks 5th would be the way to go. I really hope the Brewers can find a way to get Rickie hitting 5th or 2nd, but given the downgrade in OBP with Gomez, I can't see it happening.

[Schlitz001]

This is what you get when you use Bill James' 2010 projections in the Lineup Analysis tool.

 

Weeks

Fielder

Salome

Braun

Gamel

Gomez

Escobar

Hart

Pitcher

 

5.110 Runs

[BrewCrewForever]

This is what you get when you use Bill James' 2010 projections in the Lineup Analysis tool.

 

Weeks

Fielder

Salome

Braun

Gamel

Gomez

Escobar

Hart

Pitcher

 

5.110 Runs

Like the lineup, but put Lucroy in for Salome and switch the order around a bit.

[reillymcshane]

Trade for Ryan Doumit - a switch hitter. Move Gamel to RF. Gives us a pretty balanced lineup. Okay, I'm dreaming, but dreaming is free.

 

Escobar ®

Doumit (B)

Braun ®

Prince (L)

Weeks or McGehee®

Gamel (L)

McGehee or Weeks ®

Gomez ®

Pitcher

 

Maybe Gamel goes 2nd and Doumit 6th. Just balancing the line up out. The switch hitter is nice.

 

BTW, deal Corey Hart for pitching.

[wishicouldhit]

depending if gamel can take the 3b job from McGehee

Weeks
Escobar
Braun
Fielder
McGehee
Hart
C
P
Gomez

OR

Weeks
Escobar
Braun
Feilder
Hart
Gamel
C
P
Gomez

these are 2 possibilities, I could see a platton with gomez and Gerut in CF
im guessing Gerut would bat 2 and escobar would move to 8 or 9th

[chickinbrickin]

Trade for Ryan Doumit - a switch hitter. Move Gamel to RF. Gives us a pretty balanced lineup. Okay, I'm dreaming, but dreaming is free.

 

Escobar ®

Doumit (B)

Braun ®

Prince (L)

Weeks or McGehee®

Gamel (L)

McGehee or Weeks ®

Gomez ®

Pitcher

 

Maybe Gamel goes 2nd and Doumit 6th. Just balancing the line up out. The switch hitter is nice.

 

BTW, deal Corey Hart for pitching.

 

I like your idea of trading Corey Hart for pitching, but why go after Doumit? We have a great catching prospect in Jonathan Lucroy. I would like to see the order like this: 1. Escobar (I have seen some threads calling him the teams worst hitter?? How?? If he can draw some more walks he will be a great lead off guy) 2. Weeks 3. Braun 4. Fielder 5. Gamel 6. Lucroy 7. Gomez 8. Gerut/Cain I guess we can talk all we want about the speed of Escobar, Gomez, and Weeks, but the manager is Macha; so the team will probably end the year with 20 stolen bases total. Trade McGehee he is going to be a one year wonder and have zero value by seasons end.

[logan82]

I have seen some threads calling him the teams worst hitter?? How?? If he can draw some more walks he will be a great lead off guy

 

Not anymore. That title probably goes to Gomez now or Kendall if he comes back. Escobar is probably only the 2nd(or 3d with Kendall back) worst hitter on the team. Even if Escobar can draw some walks, he hits for very little power and no, I don't mean home runs.

[chickinbrickin]

It doesn't bother me that he doesn't have much power. All he needs to do is get on base. Everyone needs to remember he is only 22 years old and he will develop more power. I will take a 300 hitter with limited power over a guy like Corey Hart who is going to bat .250 and get an extra base hit every once in a while. There is plenty of power in the line up all the Brewers need is to get the top of the order on base and they will score runs.

 

I hope Kendall doesn't come back.

[thebruce44]

Chickinbrickin, batting average isn't the best way to judge a leadoff hitter, OBP is. His OBP will be too low in the next two years for him to be anywhere near the top of the lineup. I suspect that his OBP will creep up as his power does. No pitcher is going to walk a guy who can't hit for extra bases.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think catcher and right field are still very much up in the air but the lineup right now projects to be:

 

Weeks 2B

Escobar SS

Braun LF

Fielder RF

McGehee 3B

Hart/Gerut/Gamel RF

Lucroy/Rivera/Kotteras C

Gomez CF

 

Escobar has been tearing the cover off the ball in Venezuela (.379/.411/.476) and he did hit .304 for the Brewers. He might not be as patient as we'd like, but hitting in front of Braun and Fielder, he's going to get pitches to hit and he's got the ability to hit. They (Brewer braintrust) are "all in" on Escobar. Training wheels are off.

 

Gomez is the guy who's offensively challenged and who needs to bat down in the order to minimize his impact.

 

I believe either Hart or Gamel will be traded and the guy who's not figures to be in RF batting 6th. If Hart's the one who's dealt, look for the Brewers to go out and get a guy like Matt Murton to do some platooning.

[TooLiveBrew]

If Gamel's on the 25-man out of ST & Escobar is hitting in the 2-slot over him, I'll be very disappointed in Ken Macha (can't say I'd be *that* shocked, though). I also wouldn't be surprised to see Gomez out-produce Escobar in 2010.

[HiAndTight]

Chickinbrickin, batting average isn't the best way to judge a leadoff hitter, OBP is. His OBP will be too low in the next two years for him to be anywhere near the top of the lineup. I suspect that his OBP will creep up as his power does. No pitcher is going to walk a guy who can't hit for extra bases.

And yet Craig Counsell has routinely carried an OBP significantly higher than his BA.

 

I think this is partially true in that hitters who don't hit for power will have to work harder to draw a walk, but they can definitely draw some walks.

[rluzinski]

If your point is that a minority of players have displayed an ability to walk despite having little power, I think no one would disagree. The fact remains, however, that there is a strong correlation between isolated power (SLG-BA) and walks. For a guy like Escobar, who hasn't displayed much skill for drawing walks or hitting for power, it's tough to get a decent OBP out of them.

 

Escobar may very well develop both skills at some point but we are talking about the 2009 batting order, not the 2011 one. The prospects of Escobar carrying an OBP next year that would make him attractive in the 1 or 2 spots are not good.

[thebruce44]

And yet Craig Counsell has routinely carried an OBP significantly higher than his BA.

 

 

As rluz said, this is the exception and not the rule. One or two examples don't change the facts.

[HiAndTight]

Again, I agree that is generally the case, however nobody's talking about just one or two examples.

 

 

People like to discount the value in players such as Counsell and many others who hit for very little power yet are able to draw walks. You said no pitcher will walk a guy without power. While I realize you didn't literally mean "no pitcher", the fact is it isn't always that easy for pitchers to throw strikes, and there are many hitters out there who consistently draw walks without hitting for much power. Jason Kendall is another guy who did it throughout his career.

 

Chone Figgins hits for very little power and yet carried an OBP near .400 this year(.393).

 

 

It's a skill that is too often completely discounted and discredited as though it's all a matter of the pitcher. I don't believe that to be the case.

 

 

However with regard to Escobar I agree. He doesn't profile as the type to foul off pitches, work the count and be a pain in the rear, and as such I agree that he will not raise his OBP to the standards of a leadoff hitter until he does start to show a little power.