2010 batting order

[Schlitz001]

While I think Gomez should be batting somewhere lower in the order like 6th or 7th, I don't think it's fair to call him the worst hitter on the team or even the worst starter. With the way the average manager fills out a lineup card, I think a good number of them would have Gomez hitting in the two spot.

[MJLiverock]

I don't have a problem with Gomez in the 2 hole to start the season. It isn't like the Brewers have an automatic guy to put there. Zaun is an old catcher who may just hit into a double play every time Rickie gets on base, at least Gomez may beat out a play or two. Edmonds is still just as much of a question mark given he hasn't played in a year and if he does have some ability left it would be nice to have a guy in the 5 or 6 hole who can drive the ball.

[logan82]

I don't think it's fair to call him the worst hitter on the team or even the worst starter

 

Yes it is. Up to this point he has a below .300 career OBP. Most of his value is in his glove.

 

Also, here are a couple interesting articles on optimizing lineups.

Fangraphs - Brewers with the 4th worst optimized lineup.

Beyond the Boxscore - Nice summary of lineup optimizing according to The Book.

[Schlitz001]

I hate arguing about who is less valuable, you can make a good case for Escobar being behind Gomez at this point. Escobar hasn't really had a lot of Major League at bats, so if you compare his minor league numbers to Gomez you will see that Gomez leads in OBP, SLG and wOBA. At best you can say that it is yet to be determined that Gomez is a worse hitter than Escobar.

 

If you look at how the lineup tool projects the best lineup, it's very similar to how "The Book" would plan a lineup. You could argue that 7-9 might be changed a bit and the 3 spot might go to someone else, but otherwise it seems to follow how Tom Tango might plan it out. There are so many possibilities and variables, but I think the take home message from that chapter of "The Book" was to place your best hitters highest in the lineup, and we both agree that Gomez and Escobar are not part of the Brewers best hitters this year.

[logan82]

I agree that Escobar could also be arguably our worst hitter. I had a thread on it about a month back and they are both so similar that I wouldn't chose who will have the better year between them.

 

My problem with the lineup tool is that it keeps putting either Escobar or Gomez in the top of the order even though most projections have them as 2 of our worst 3 hitters. Now if we platoon Hart/Edmonds I think we can expect that platoon to be amongst our best 5 hitters.

[endaround]

The difference between Gomez and Escobar is most likely is that Escobar is such a GB machine (over 50% in Nashville). So you want him away from having GIDP opportunities which is why he's a great #9 hitter since he'll seldom have a guy on 1B ahead of him.

[CheezWizHed]

I can't find one good reason to put Edmonds batting 5th behind Fielder:

- Back-to-Back Lefties

- McGehee is hitting better

- McGehee is the better hitter at this point.

- McGehee bounces around in the lineup when Hart comes in.

- McGehee did great last year in the 5-hole.

[logan82]

I like McGehee in the 5 hole too. How about this lineup for something that Macha might realistically consider.

 

Weeks

Edmonds/Hart

Braun

Fielder

McGehee

Gomez

Zaun

Escobar

Pitcher

That would work for me. The discussion really does come down to what we could realistically expect. I believe in The Book's lineup optimization but it will not happen anytime soon if ever. The only thing we can realistically expect to happen out of the lineup optimization is batting the pitcher #8. Most lineups are pretty close to optimized already since the most important thing is to get your best hitters at the top. As long as you get your 5 best hitters at the top, you are pretty close to optimizing. Even with a completely optimized lineup it would only ad about 10-12 runs. The biggest thing that gets left out of any summary of The Book's lineup optimization is never letting your 4 or 5 pitchers hit. I think it is something like 40 of the 50 runs that lineup optimization would gain you. That of course isn't very practical unless it is September after call ups.

[rluzinski]

It is only my educated guess that Gomez is the worst batter (among the starters) on the team. A reasonable case could be made that it's actually Escobar, though. Other teams would also bat Gomez 2nd because other teams are (IMO, obviously) as ignorant as the Brewers. You can throw out a million valid benefits of having Gomez in the 2nd spot but their sum cannot overcome the cost of giving the worst hitter more ABs than a superior ones. There simply isn't enough hustle or bunt attempts to do it. Batting Gomez 2nd instead of 7th is something like an extra 100 PAs for the season. Gomez is only a starter because of his defense; he should be hidden in the lineup as much as possible.

 

And that Baseballmusings lineup tool is junk; always has been, always will be. I've been saying it for years but unfortunetely, it keeps getting used. The comments in the Fangraph article explains why and Sky supplied an alernative that I presume is decent:

 

http://lineupsimulator.com/

 

Someone put CHONE projections in there and see what it spits out for the Crew?

[logan82]

McGehee, Zaun, Gomez and Escobar are pretty interchangeable in the lineup according to CHONE projections. The main thing seems to be getting Weeks, Fielder, Braun and Hart in the top 5 somewhere. The one thing that really brings things down is putting Edmonds in instead of Hart. 668 runs. Just shuffling guys around you usually end up around 685+ runs as long as you don't go crazy and don't put the pitcher higher than 7 or have Fielder and Braun at the bottom.

 

I think you could make a case for Escobar, Gomez or Zaun being the worst hitter. Zaun being older and likely to decline somewhat while the other 2 are young and likely to improve.

 

Avg Runs Per Game:

4.10

Runs For 162 Games:

663

 

Order	Name	G	RBI	R
1	Pitcher	150	32	39
2	Zaun	150	49	63
3	Escobar	150	46	67
4	Gomez	150	64	75
5	Hart	150	87	73
6	McGehee	150	74	66
7	Weeks	150	68	80
8	Braun	150	94	83
9	Fielder	150	97	64

Avg Runs Per Game:

4.13

Runs For 162 Games:

668

 

Order	Name	G	RBI	R
1	Weeks	150	65	86
2	Gomez	150	54	90
3	Braun	150	112	98
4	Fielder	150	114	87
5	Edmonds	150	68	63
6	McGehee	150	63	60
7	Zaun	150	54	50
8	Escobar	150	51	46
9	Pitcher	150	33	36

Avg Runs Per Game:

4.30

Runs For 162 Games:

696

 

Order	Name	G	RBI	R
1	Weeks	150	60	96
2	Fielder	150	101	103
3	McGehee	150	75	80
4	Braun	150	105	95
5	Hart	150	81	73
6	Gomez	150	64	61
7	Escobar	150	65	44
8	Pitcher	150	40	32
9	Zaun	150	49	56

[derflotr]

If I filled out the lineup card:

Braun

Fielder

Weeks

Mcgehee/Edmonds

Hart/McGehee

Escobar

Zaun

Pitcher

Gomez

[BrewCrewForever]

I know it is only 5 games in, but I really hope Macha flip flops Gomez and Escobar in the lineup. It seems pretty clear that Escobar is more selective then Gomez and is a better overall hitter. So he should bat #2. Gomez would be better at #8 so if he does get on base and can try to steal with the pitcher, Weeks and Escobar up behind him.

[NYChez]

I would not start Escobar, Gomez, and Hart at the same time. One out of Counsell, Edmonds, and Gerut should be starting every game and batting 2nd. The alternative is to just eliminate the black hole and bat Braun and Fielder 2 and 3 behind Weeks. That would get you the additional 18 at bats for the season for each of Ryan and Prince.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd bat Zaun leadoff and at least eliminate one chance for him to GIDP per game.

 

Sarcasm.

[Bucky370]

No question Escobar needs to be put in the #2 spot and left alone. He has speed, appears to hit for average etc. I'm sick and tired of the arguement that you can't put all the bad guys at the bottom, but your wasted run production in front of the 2 big bats going back and forth at #2. Escobar has more than produced in the #8 hole, a spot guys are sent to die usually. Don't you want your best hitters to get the most AB's? Batting 8th will reduce his ab's by about 100 a year.

[logan82]

Don't you want your best hitters to get the most AB's?

 

You sure do. Edmonds and Hart are better hitters than Escobar so they should be #2.

[Ennder]

Right now I think Escobar is about the 7th best hitter on the team so I'm fine with him in the bottom of the order somewhere. So far this season he has been our 8th best hitter. He certainly has the talent to work his way into the top 5 but he just isn't there yet for me. I think Macha is putting out a pretty decent batting order right now with Edmonds/Hart batting 2nd. I'm not a huge fan of Hart doing it vs RHP but we don't have an easy option to replace him so I'm ok with it.

[logan82]

Edmonds vs RHP is a pretty obvious option but only if you have a RF platoon.

[logan82]

JohnBriggs12 wrote

Sooner or later though, he's got to elevate Escobar into the 2 spot in

the order. He's tried everyone else there instead of the obvious.

No,

he doesn't. Edmonds and Hart are fine and probably much better hitters

than Escobar. That is before actually looking at the stats and

realizing both are out hitting Escobar so far. Escobar is only getting

on base at a .308 clip. He also pounds the ball into the ground and

would make many of Weeks singles and walks into double plays leaving the

bases empty for Braun. Escobar really hasn't done much to show he deserves to be #2 and he isn't projected to. Edmonds and Hart platooned are probably the best #2 option.

[BrewCrewForever]

The lineup I would like to see is:

 

1. Weeks - 2B

2. Escobar -SS

3. Braun - LF

4. Fielder - 1B

5. McGehee - 3B

6. Zaun - C

7. Hart - RF

8. Gomez -CF

9. Pitcher

[NievesNoNO]

I think Macha puts a decent lineup out there. I like Edmonds/Hart up in the 2 hole. Theoretically Hart might see more fastballs to hit between Weeks and Braun. Edmonds (while I don't like to admit it) has been solid thus far. The only other guy I might like up there is McGhee, but he's doing well down at 5, so I don't see the point in messing with a good thing. The only thing I'd like to see is Escobar and Gomez hitting 6-7 and Zaun 8. At least when they do get on base they can use their best asset. Gomez at 2, seems kind of a waste. He's not that good of a hitter and when he does get on you don't really want him attemping any steals in front of Braun and Fielder. Zaun 8th, beacause then when he does actually get a hit it'll seem like bonus just to get to the pitcher.

1. Weeks
2. Hart/Edmonds
3. Braun
4. Fielder
5. McGhee
6. Escobar
7. Gomez
8. Zaun
9. pitcher

For an interesting shakup:

1. Escobar
2. McGhee
3. Fielder
4. Braun
5. Weeks
6. Edmonds/Hart
7. Zaun
8. pitcher
9. Gomez

[TooLiveBrew]

I like the 'regular' lineup Macha has been running out there:

 

Weeks

Edmonds/Hart

Braun

Fielder

McGehee

Zaun

Escobar

Gomez

P

I'd just like to see Gerut getting some more time in center. But it looks like it's as many feared -- Macha definitely appears to have Jim Edmonds as a better centerfielder than Gerut. *sigh*

[logan82]

I agree Macha's regular lineup is about as good as we can expect. The only thing I might change is putting Zaun in front of the pitcher until Escobar or Gomez start taking pitches.

[Ennder]

I'd just like to see Gerut getting some more time in center. But it looks like it's as many feared -- Macha definitely appears to have Jim Edmonds as a better centerfielder than Gerut. *sigh

 

Hard to complain with the results so far though. If Edmonds were stinking it up and Macha stuck with him I could buy this a lot more but as long as he is hitting well I don't have an issue with it.

[zzzmanwitz]

At this point, its hard to say any of the 4 OFs other than Braun are better than any of the others. (this includes defense) I'm not going to complain about one getting more playing time over the others, unless one of them starts sucking it up.