Hart for Kenshin Kawakami

[reillymcshane]

Jorge Says No tosses out the idea of Kenshin Kawakami from the Braves for Corey Hart.

 

http://jorgesaysno.blogsp...ing-would-you-trade.html

 

Don't know much about Kawakami - anyone have any thoughts on him?

[dadofandrew]

It makes too much sense to ever happen.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif The Braves are looking to add a RH power bat at 1B/3B/LF/RF, and they do seem to have a surplus of pitching.

 

As for replacing Corey, a platoon of Catalanotto and Eric Byrnes might come close. I'm sure ARI would give Byrnes away if the Crew paid $1-2M of his salary.

[Polish Falcons]

Seems like a square deal to me and good for both teams, but if this were to happen I think the Brewers need to re-sign Cameron or pick up a free agent outfielder because I'm not comfortable with Gerut/Catalanatto or Byrnes(?) being the everyday starters. I wouldn't mind ONE of those guys (mainly gerut) being a starting OF, but not Two of them.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think it makes that much sense. Kawakami is owed something like $15 million over the next 2 years and he's 34 years old. Trading for him would be similar to signing a middling FA, plus giving up Hart. Why not just sign the middling FA, and use Hart to get either the cheaper, younger starter or help at catcher that Hardy might not get on his own.

 

Also do we really want 3 guys in their mid 30's, none of which is a one or a two SP taking up roughly 1/3 of the payroll (assuming they make the mistake of bringing Looper back)?

[dadofandrew]

Well, for one thing, we have no idea if a middling FA SP wants to play in MIL, or how much the market will decide they are worth...last season, they got about $5-6M, two years ago, about $9-10M.

[nate82]

Kawakami is owed $13.334m over the next two years or $6.667m per year. Which is probably around the range of what you could get for a Davis at best. I think the FA this year will get more money than they did last year though. $7-8m per year for 2-4 years sounds about right for this years average pitchers. I would rather have Kawakami over the other middling FA crop even if it does cost Hart in the process. You are not going to get anymore value out of Hart other than someone like Kawakami.

 

Kawakami didn't have a horrible year either he had a rather respectable year. I love his HR/9 rate and he is probably rather close to Pineiro talent wise and he would be less expensive than Pineiro also.

 

Season	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	ShO	SV	BS	IP	TBF	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	HBP	WP	BK	SO
Total	- - -	7	12	3.86	32	25	0	0	1	0	156.1	669	153	73	67	15	57	6	6	8	1	105
2009	ZiPS	10	8	4.09	23	19					141.0		145		64	22	30					117
2009	Braves	7	12	3.86	32	25	0	0	1	0	156.1	669	153	73	67	15	57	6	6	8	1	105

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
Total	- - -	6.04	3.28	1.84	0.86	.258	1.34	.291	73.3 %	4.21
2009	ZiPS	7.47	1.91	3.90	1.40	.267	1.24	.305		4.14
2009	Braves	6.04	3.28	1.84	0.86	.258	1.34	.291	73.3 %	4.21

Season	Team	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	IFH%	BUH%	tRA
Total	- - -	1.08	18.8 %	42.1 %	39.0 %	7.4 %	7.9 %	4.4 %	11.8 %	4.75
2009	Braves	1.08	18.8 %	42.1 %	39.0 %	7.4 %	7.9 %	4.4 %	11.8 %	4.75

[fleehaw]

It makes too much sense to ever happen.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif The Braves are looking to add a RH power bat at 1B/3B/LF/RF, and they do seem to have a surplus of pitching.

 

As for replacing Corey, a platoon of Catalanotto and Eric Byrnes might come close. I'm sure ARI would give Byrnes away if the Crew paid $1-2M of his salary.

A Suppan for Byrnes deal could make quite a bit of sense if the Brewers address their need for quality SP with some depth at AAA. The Brewers would end up saving ~$2M (Counsell $$$) and the D-Backs get a back-of-the rotation SP which it looks like they might need. Byrnes/Gerut would be an excellent OF bench and at least, a league average RF platoon.

 

As for Hart for Kawakami, it's exactly the type of deal the Brewers should make. And as DOA points out, probably way too much sense to actually happen.

[Hate those Rodents]

I actually really like Byrnes, but I'll grant all of you that I haven't really watched him the last two years and do see his stats.

[pingman]

this deal does make sense and appears fair for both parties....however, IMHO there is a lot of risk for the Braves:

 

1) Hart hasn't hit for about 1.5 years....hmmm

2) the Braves could go with Matt Diaz in LF & give the RF job to Jason Hayward....is Hart better than either of these cats???????

 

I really like Kawakami & IMHO he's better than his numbers....they're skewed by a poor April when he was adjusting to a new country & MLB; after that he was a solid, quality start machine

[MJLiverock]

That's an awful lot of walks and not that great a K rate. His BABIP was even a little low so I wouldn't say he was hurt by bad luck, if anything I wouldn't be surprised to see it increase and not really be bad. He looks like the usual Brewer target of being not horrible but having very little upside either and at this point could very well be Jeff Suppan 2.0.

[Hate those Rodents]

Yeah, I'd at least see what else Hart could get just to see if there might be someone better we could trade him for straight up than KK. But depending on a number of factors for how the off-season starts, I'd be open to this.

[nate82]

He looks like the usual Brewer target of being not horrible but having very little upside either and at this point could very well be Jeff Suppan 2.0.

I'm sorry but this is false. Kawakami is not another Suppan. Kawakami put up a good K/9 last year and of the FA that are available only Lackey, Pavano, and Davis had a better K/9 than him. Lackey is the only one that is extremely far ahead of Kawakami in K/9. A 6 K/9 is rather good and it puts Kawakami as the 4th best for the Brewers well above Suppan and Looper.

 

Kawakami is no Suppan. Kawakami isn't a guy like Suppan especially with his K/9. Suppan hasn't put up a K/9 better than 4 since 2005 and Kawakami has already done so. Also who exactly do you think you can get for Hart? It won't be anyone better than Kawakami that is for sure if you are trading Hart for a pitcher. If the Brewers can get a #1 or a #2 pitcher from a Gamel/Hardy trade then Kawakami could easily step in as the #3 pitcher moving each player down a notch. Bush would be a good #4 pitcher and you can have either Suppan or Parra as the #5 starter. A rotation of Hardy/Gamel trade, Gallardo, Kawakami, Bush, and Parra/Suppan that is about as good as the Phillies starting rotation this year and last years. This would be a huge upgrade over this years pitching staff also.

 

As for Kawakami's BABIP I believe it is close to where it will be for his career around the 3.00 range. Also look at his strand rate which isn't that high also it is within the average. Kawakami isn't being looked as the #1 starter here or the #2 at best he would be the #3 starter in the rotation. Without any additions to the rotation Kawakami would be the default #2 then you would have problems but I don't see that happening though.

[yoshii8]

Nate, how do you know for sure that Hart can't fetch more than Kawakami?

 

Some teams may value his speed/power combination more than the Brewers do, and maybe we can get a younger pitcher w/ a higher upside that had a down year last year like Brandon Morrow. Although we might have to add a mid level prospect to get him.

[MJLiverock]

KK isn't terrible but he isn't much of a difference maker either. That may be all Hart can bring back at this point but a mid 30's back of the rotation starter is what I see in the Suppan Looper mold. Kawakami is going to be paid about $7MM each of the next two years to be a #3 at best, likely #4 type starter. Sure he has 6 K/9, that ranks him 35th out out 52 guys who tossed 140+ innings. Being 4th best on the Brewer's staff really isn't saying a lot considering they were the 2nd worst staff in the league. He also has the 16th most walks, and 40th/52 in K/BB ratio. His strand rate was higher than both Suppan and Looper and he had a below average BABIP. He is in that mold of guy who's fastball tops out at 90, complained of shoulder soreness a few times thru out the year. Is he better than Mike Burns, sure but I could easily see him beeing a 4.75+ ERA guy next year as well. The Brewers have enough of those guys and need to spend their trading chips on getting much better players than they have, it may take a package of guys to do that so I just get a little worried when I see them fritter the tradeable guys for less than impressive talent or improvments.

[TheCrew07]

A K/9 of less than 6 isn't very good, it's very average. He may not be Suppan, but he doesn't have a very high ceiling either. He's a solid #3 type who might occasionally put an ERA like a #2, his K rate was 34th in the national league this last season, not bad, not great, just in the middle. His BB/9 rate of 3.3 was 38th in the league for qualified pitchers as well. He's a good pitcher, but he's 34 years old already with average peripherals, he's not a high ceiling guy, and he's right at the age where he's going to start to decline.

 

I'm not sure what comparing him to the Brewer rotation proves, we know they didn't pitch well, and for example Doug Davis is a better pitcher than who we have and I don't want him back either. I just don't trust players who out pitch their peripherals like Davis, I'm always waiting for the bottom to fall out. Davis is a good pitcher, but he's old and how long can he keep it going? I want a younger guy with a high K rate and probably a high BB rate, someone who's maybe underperformed their stuff but could break out and be something special.

 

I'd rather we stay away from 30 somethings unless it's a last resort... if it came down to one of those guys vs Looper/Suppan I could be talked into it on a short duration deal, but we have too much pitching between A+ and AAA to be acquiring declining players on 3 to 4 year deals as a solution to our rotation issues.

[nate82]

I'd rather we stay away from 30 somethings unless it's a last resort... if it came down to one of those guys vs Looper/Suppan I could be talked into it on a short duration deal, but we have too much pitching between A+ and AAA to be acquiring declining players on 3 to 4 year deals as a solution to our rotation issues.

Kawakami only has 2 years left on his deal. It is not like the Brewers will be stuck with a huge contract like Suppan's or for a high amount. For $6.667m you are not going to find a cheaper #3 option out there. The pitching the Brewers have is farther away than 2 years and the ones that are about ready are # 4 or 5 starters. With Suppan leaving after this next season you will have to replace him if one of the younger arms do not prove themselves and Kawakami would be a cheap option with 1-year left on his contract.

 

Kawakami makes more sense than a Davis or a Washburn. Hart just is not going to bring back all that much in terms of a trade. He had a bad WAR stat this year at 0.7 if you use WAR to predict what each player is worth to teams you will see that Hart will not fetch you much other than someone like Kawakami. Hart has lost a lot of value the last two years. Maybe two years ago you could have gotten a young pitching prospect that projected to be a #2 or #3 type. I don't believe Hart has that value any more.

[TheCrew07]

The pitching the Brewers have is farther away than 2 years and the ones that are about ready are # 4 or 5 starters.

Butler maybe but he'll start the year in AAA. Rogers and Rivas do not project as 4/5s, both will start the coming season in AA, and both are track to make the jump to the Majors in 2011. Rivas has already pitched over 130 innings as long as he matches or does better in AA he's ready to go. Rogers should bump to the 130-140 IP range this upcoming season as he'll be using his second option year.

[Never Outhustled]

I agree with TheCew07, I think we can find better than a 30 something with a 2 year deal for sizable money and mediocre projectability.

 

I assume Rick Peterson will be named all around pitching guru soon. Let him pick the pitchers, he's done it before. Let him find scrap heap steals like he did with John Maine and Oliver Perez, and let him re-unite with some of his past pitchers that he believes he can get back on track.

 

I also don't believe the Braves would have an interest in Hart anymore. Since they were interested in him last offseason, Matt Diaz put up an 885 OPS, they acquired Nate McLouth and Ryan Church, Jordan Schafer re-established himself as a bluechip prospect, and Jason Heyward made it all the way to AAA while earning BA's Minor League Player of the Year. Their OF is very strong, they need a right handed hitting 3B.

[sheetskout]

I'm not really sure if I am in the minority here or not, but I actually think Hart will rebound next season and be quite a nice player. Hart's one of the harder players on the club for me to gauge sentiment on. He really could easily be back to all star levels quite easily.

 

Kawakami seems like he could easily go the other way watching his ERA balloon up to around 5.00 and he isn't young either.

 

It's just not enough to me.

[Hate those Rodents]

I agree Sheetskout. That's precisely my thoughts just said differently/better. I'm willing to sell a tad lower on JJ just due to the situation, but otherwise don't really want to sell low. I'd rather trade JJ, trade a 3B, and sign a FA SP. I see no reason for us to create a hole in RF. I too think Hart has a better chance to put up nice offensive numbers next year than say McGehee. Let's ride it out with Hart another year and get our starting pitching through other avenues.