Winter weather thread 2009-2010

[JumpinMacFlash]

The wife and I have to make it from Hartland to Richland Center. I'd like to leave Wednesday night, but we both couldn't get off Thursday. It's looking like we might not make it to Christmas at the parents' if we have to wait that long.

[owbc]

Looks like the best time to travel in southern WI will be either Wednesday morning or Thursday evening. I personally have to take the bus to Milwaukee at 8 PM Thursday night and I am not worried. Travel could be extremely hazardous late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. We are going to see an extended period of freezing rain/sleet with temperatures hovering around 31-32 F. I doubt the major roads will be that bad as long as they salt, but we do not get many ice storms around here so I do not really know how it will play out. This is the first ice storm I have ever closely tracked--they tend to get really bad when they happen in the south, but we have better snow removal equipment around here.

 

The second concern is with the soaking rain that is expected. Even Madison should lose most of its snow cover with over an inch of pure rain expected on top of about a 1/2" liquid equivalent of snow/sleet/ice. Milwaukee will see a brown Christmas morning with light snow showers in the afternoon. I highly recommend removing the snow off your roof to prevent water damage. Also, make sure that storm drains are not blocked with snow/ice.

 

Edit: The NWS has a great multimedia weather briefing out.

[NeedMoreFans]

If I remember, a very similar thing happened right after Christmas last year. I know we wanted to take my nephew sledding, but it rained quite a bit. I hope we still have some snow left over, because I now live close to a sledding hill, and that will make some interesting fun come New Year's.

 

What are the odds that this thing tracks a bit East/West of it's current forecasted path? I know this happens quite a bit with winter storms.

[1992casey]

obsessed, if I remember correctly, the weather map next to your avatar is showing a pretty nasty ice storm from early 2008.

[hawing]

Edit: The NWS has a great multimedia weather briefing out.

I'll second that. It's very clearly explained, even for us non-OWBC types, and as a bonus it's not delivered in a monotone. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Indeed, though the speaker stresses that there is still some time for the path of the storm to change, the currently expected timetable gives me hope that we might not have to stay home for Christmas.

[owbc]

Yep, we had a good time with the December 1, 2007 ice storm, but that happened before I took most of my meteorology classes--I feel like I understand the storms now way more than I used to.

 

The actual storm track doesn't really matter much for this storm since we are dealing with a warm front. The low takes a very unusual track, my meteorologist friend from Minnesota compared the track to the 1991 Halloween Blizzard although this one is not quite as extreme. This one goes from Arkansas to central Iowa and then weakens/stalls out before gradually drifting across Wisconsin. There is also an unusual and complicated upper level setup that includes phasing between a split flow in the jet stream with a strong upper level disturbance over the plains. The moisture surge from the Gulf is once again amazing as with our previous winter storm from 2 weeks ago. The Minneapolis area is going to stay all snow and is expecting 16-20".

 

Anyway, the main differences in the models relate to the vertical temperature profile over the state. Out of the two global forecast models that I can look at for free online, one has a much longer period of snow/sleet while the other quickly changes most of Southern WI to rain/freezing rain. Both have a changeover to rain by Thursday afternoon and give about an inch of rain by Friday morning. Madison could easily see 3-5" of snow if one verifies, while the other would show almost no snow and a long period of freezing rain. Milwaukee is going to be slightly warmer with a faster changeover to rain, no matter how you look at it. I do not think the track of the storm matters as much as the interaction between the warm/cold air masses along the warm front. Therefore, it is more of a timing issue instead of track.

 

Where my actual weather forecast training can really be applied is by interpreting the two models and figuring out which scenario is more likely. Each model has known biases, but much of it comes down to a forecaster's knowledge of the region and the performance of past storms compared to the models. Many meteorologists around here are unfamiliar with ice storms since they are relatively rare. Another problems is that both models have been very stubborn with their differing solutions, which is exactly what happened in the previous storm. The forecasts to this point have taken the middle ground between the two--with at least some snow forecasted before it changes over to freezing rain.

 

I think the warmer solution will work out in the end and the road conditions will not be that bad. The pool of cold air over us is not that impressive and the surface temperature will quickly get up to 30-32 degrees as soon as the precipitation hits. The wind is also going to be cranking out of the east at 20 mph, so the warm lake temperatures will quickly get Milwaukee over 32. The models often underestimate the influence of Lake Michigan (the warm lake not only warmed up Milwaukee in the last storm, but its warming influence also pulled the track of the entire storm system slightly farther north that it otherwise would have gone). The surge of warm air above the surface is also very impressive. It is hard for me to see it staying as snow for very long at all before it changes to mixed precip. Milwaukee will likely see very little frozen precip, especially near the lake.

 

I guess we will just have to wait and see though.

[1992casey]

Yep, we had a good time with the December 1, 2007 ice storm...

 

Nope. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif It's Sunday, February 17, 2008. There should be discussion about it in that year's winter weather thread, but danged if I could find it with the board search. It's gotta be there.

 

Anyway, it coincided with hawing bestowing your Weatherman title. I could look that up in our log. She did that at 1:46 PM on Friday, February 15, 2008. I followed up by editing the map into the board skin on Sunday at 7:35 AM. The picture would have been taken just before the skin edit.

[1992casey]

Using a different search tack, I found where hawing bestowed OWBC's title.

[hawing]

Using a different search tack, I found where hawing bestowed OWBC's title.

Quit spying on me! But that thread certainly brought back some memories - though none I particularly needed to relive.

I'm going to agree with OWBC, though. I think that graphic you added to his avatar is from 12/1/2007. The S.O. and I walked from our house to the Field House and back through the worst collection of winter precipitation I've ever been in. And the sky looked kind of pink like in the graphic. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

The models often underestimate the influence of Lake Michigan (the warm lake not only warmed up Milwaukee in the last storm, but its warming influence also pulled the track of the entire storm system slightly farther north that it otherwise would have gone).

 

OWBC, I often got the impression while in Madison that the two lakes would affect certain storms' paths... almost like the lakes would pull the storm/clouds over them, as if the bodies of water had almost a magnetic pull. Was I just imagining things, or does that kind of thing happen with Mendota & Monona? I've always been kinda skeptical of this impression I developed, partially because neither lake is all that big.

[hawing]

I can't speak like a weatherman, or weatherperson, but that sounds kind of like the "tornadoes won't hit downtown Madison because of the lakes" assertion, which is a myth.

[owbc]

I doubt the lakes in Madison have much of an effect on storm tracks due to their small size. I could see individual cumulus clouds being affected though, although I have never seen a pattern that would represent that. The temperatures at the airport can be affected by Lake Mendota though--I remember one warm winter day either this year or last that a strong SW wind off a frozen lake kept the airport in the upper 30s while the rest of the area warmed to around 50.

 

Hawing is right, the tornado theory is a myth. That being said, there are areas that are more favored for tornadoes than others based on local geography. The wind flowing over/around hills can either help to spin up or prevent tornadoes, but it depends on the exact wind direction and is never true as a generalization. When graphing the last 20-30 years of tornado reports, a maximum occurs in a bad from the Dells eastward while the Madison area has seen less tornadoes--but still some tornadoes, including one that was visible from library mall. Either downtown Milwaukee or Madison will likely get hit eventually, it is just statistically improbable due to the relatively small size of cities.

[hawing]

the Madison area has seen less tornadoes--but still some tornadoes, including one that was visible from library mall.

I'd forgotten about that photo (which I believe you posted in an earlier bf.net thread). The building at right in that photo is my workplace. Happily (perhaps) I was not at work when that storm hit, but instead at Miller Park, watching the Brewers lose to the Rockies. It was an interesting drive home.

 

Getting back to winter, the current NWS forecast for Madison for Thursday is making me feel better yet, especially the "Little or no ice accumulation expected." Fingers crossed.

[DatHoser]

The *ahem* stuff *ahem* is starting to come down here in Hartland. Oh let the fun begin http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif

[JumpinMacFlash]

I just drove from Hartland to Delafield and back. Fun was the right word, DatHoser.

[trwi7]

I'm in Hartland. I didn't even notice, probably because I didn't want to look. I shoveled a few inches of snow yesterday when they said accumulations would be less than an inch.

[adamb100]

Lot of snow coming down in West Allis.

[hawing]

A little while ago, in Madison, I heard the telltale sound of something more icy than snow on our windows. I'm not going outside to see whether it's rain, sleet, or in between.

[JimH5]

My snowblower didn't start this morning.

It wasn't deep, but it was heavy. My back will be sore on Christmas morning. . .

Maybe 3 inches of very wet.

[BrewCrewForever]

This snow seemed like the snow from the storm a few weeks back. This time my snow blower handled it no problem. Of course this was only 3 or 4 inches compared to the 12 we got last time. Super wet and heavy.

[DuWayne Steurer]

When I left for work this morning at about 4:30 am, EVERYTHING in Janesville was covered with about a 1/2" glaze. The trees looked awesome, but I'm concerned when I get home this afternoon, I'm going to be short a few more trees than I was yesterday.

 

Drive to Madison was slow, slow going. About 35 mph up the interstate was all most people were daring to go at that time of the morning.

 

Hopefully the drive home this afternoon is a little more smooth sailing.

[hawing]

Hopefully the drive home this afternoon is a little more smooth sailing.

The 511wi.gov road conditions map has I-90 between Madison and Janesville in "good winter driving condition."

We're just waiting on the rest of southeast Wisconsin changing from "snow covered."

[dadofandrew]

From my experience, the road condition site is as reliable as asking my cocker spaniel.

[BrewCrewForever]

I'm very thankful that all this rain is rain and not snow.

[hawing]

I'm sorry it hasn't worked for you, Al. We waited until southeast Wisconsin was "in the green" and found the conditions to be reliable.

 

And we got back from Kenosha about 30 minutes before the rain in Madison turned to sleet and now snow. Woot!