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Winter weather thread 2009-2010

owbc

By owbc,
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owbc Carolina Mudcats

owbc

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I've been monitoring this one very closely over the last few days. The setup is extremely fascinating, the coldest air will actually be located in Illinois. Therefore, the best chance for accumulating snow will be near the WI/IL border, away from the lake, while areas farther to the north are more likely to see just a mix of rain and snow. The low level thermal profile is also too warm for a widespread snow event, so it is likely that any accumulating snow will only be in a small area, maybe 10-20 miles wide, where the precip is falling heavy enough to mix down cooler air from the upper levels. The best guess on timing is sometime around daybreak Thursday morning.

 

Most areas will see rain starting Wednesday evening changing to a rain/snow mix early Thursday morning. Everything should be gone by noon Thursday. My forecast is for less than 1" except for the small unknown area somewhere south of I-94 that *might* get 3 or 4 inches (before quickly melting due to the warm ground). Definitely a fun/unique but challenging forecast, I am excited to see if it will pan out.

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hawing MVP

hawing

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Obviously it's the night before a major holiday, otherwise I'd never be the first to post here that it has been snowing lightly in Madison for the last few hours.

Looking from our house, it's not sticking to anything except the windshield of our neighbor's vehicle. Still, I don't know that I'd prefer to be out driving tonight.

Remember: the Brewers never panic like you do.
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owbc Carolina Mudcats

owbc

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Yeah, this one is on such a small scale that there was really no way to see it coming more than a day in advance. The heaviest band of snow is only about 20-30 km wide and the resolution of the computer forecast models that go beyond one day is 25-40 km. Anything that small is virtually impossible to see coming and even if it did show up it would be ever harder to pinpoint the location (similar to thunderstorms in the summer). The models that ran overnight were the first ones that saw anything more than flurries/light snow showers. Looks like the total here west of Madison is only going to be about 1-2" but there are reports of some heavier totals a little to the south.
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owbc Carolina Mudcats

owbc

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From the Milwaukee NWS:

 

 TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...LOW BY FAR THE BIGGEST STORM POTENTIAL. ONE TO WATCH AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT BRINGING A STORM INTO THE MIDWEST. LOTS OF DETAILS YET TO GET IRONED OUT WITH RESPECT TO THE STORM TRACK AND PRECIP TYPES. GETTING SOME IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS FROM THE INGREDIENTS PLOTS AND ALSO GETTING DECENT VV IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS MAY END UP NEEDING A WATCH/WARNING IN ALL OR PART OF THE CWA AS TIME DRAWS CLOSER. FIRST VERY PRELIMINARY SWING AT AMOUNTS IS 4-8 INCHES...BUT AGAIN...LOTS TO SORT OUT AND TRACK RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NW PART OF THE CWA WITH SOME WARM AIR WRAP-IN OFF THE LAKE POTENTIALLY CUTTING DOWN AMOUNTS THERE. STAY TUNED ON THIS ONE. [/pre]
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owbc Carolina Mudcats

owbc

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There is actually somewhat decent forecast model agreement over the next few days:

 

Here's what we know:

-A general 2-4 inch snow will fall on Sunday night across southern WI. Starting time will be in the evening (around 7-9 PM or so). Morning rush hour in Milwaukee could be impacted although it should be mostly over by then.

-A large storm is coming on Tuesday night into Wednesday. A least a few inches of snow is a sure bet at this point. It will be very windy with arctic cold following the storm, blizzard-like conditions will be possible.

 

Still unsure:

-Some concern the snow changing to rain for part of the storm in SE Wisconsin. It would start as snow Tuesday night, then change to rain for a few hours on Wednesday morning, then back to snow. If the low tracks any farther north than currently expected, rain could mix in across more of southern/SE Wisconsin.

-Exact amounts and timing are TBD. There will almost certainly be a Winter Storm Watch issued on Monday.

-The highest snow totals will probably be around 10" in a small area.

 

Should be a great time for the snow geeks here...sorry for the rest of you, at least it has a good shot of being a snow day :-)

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owbc Carolina Mudcats

owbc

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The winter storm watch is finally out:

 

 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 354 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009 ...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO BRING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND LIFT NORTHEAST...CROSSING MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS NEAR CHICAGO INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN VARIATIONS TO THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW...MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON A PATH THAT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW TO WISCONSIN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS...DEVELOPING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE HEAVY SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-070600- /O.NEW.KMKX.WS.A.0006.091209T0000Z-091210T0600Z/ MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE- LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC... SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM... WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON... LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON... MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE... KENOSHA 354 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * TIMING: OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BETWEEN 10 AM AND 12 NOON TUESDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 6 PM TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 12 MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM WEDNESDAY...THEN TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 10 TO 13 INCHES WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW APPEARING TO BE ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO SHEBOYGAN. * WINDS: EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...TURNING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME WEST AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. * IMPACTS:TRAVEL DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME DIFFICULT WITH THE INTENSIFYING SNOW...WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS. HEAVY SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CREATING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. * WHILE IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORMI WARNING...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THE STORM INTENSIFIES MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS...STATEMENTS.

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