Melvin wants 2 starters

[JohnBriggs12]

I still believe one will be Mulder and the other will be a hugh risk and high reward guy.

It would be a huge mistake to make Mulder who hasn't pitched effectively in the majors since 2005 anymore than a longshot.

 

Everyone talks that they don't like the FA pool. Look the Brewers had one starter last year, Gallardo, that was any better than a weak 5th starter on most teams. Bush, Looper, Suppan and Parra were all terrible with a capital T. So the FA crop doesn't have top of the rotation types? That doesn't mean the likes of Wolf, Pineiro, Washburn, Garland, Davis, Penny or Marquis were anywhere near as bad as the "Brewer 4" or that adding one or even two won't considerably improve the rotation. Those guys over the course of their careers are middle of the rotation (number 3) types. All, save Penny were at or better than that level in 2009. The market is what it is. The Brewers might have to pay $2-3 million per year over the worth of one of these guys. Most are beyond the age where they can command long term deals so that minimizes the risk even further.

 

The hope has to be you sign a number 3 guy and hope he pitches like a 2 (most all these FA have done this in their careers at least once) and perhaps you trade for a 4 and hope he pitches like a 3. Then you hope the two 09 failures (whoever those are) that are back improve to solid 4th and 5th level guys. It's an impossible task in any year to take a bottom rotation and make it a top one in one year. They have to get incrementally better and hope with their offense it's enough. Bottom line, it's not an all or nothing deal. Melvin has no choice. He has to improve this rotation.

[sbrylski]

I want Wolf and one (or both) of Sheets or Myers. Just wanted to say that.

[Oldcity]

Yeah, I'd be fine with them signing Mulder as long as they added two other starters. You certainly can't pencil Mulder into the rotation at this point.

[thebruce44]

Not sure why Harang or Arroyo are mentioned so much. My guess is that the Reds aren't happy that Doug wouldn't trade JJ in the division, so I'd expect them to now be unwilling to deal either pitcher into the division.

You really think the Reds wouldn't make a trade that would help their team out of spite?

[Hate those Rodents]

thebruce44 wrote

You really think the Reds wouldn't make a trade that would help their team out of spite?

Not sure. My response is sort of inferring the same type of question to Doug... "Doug, you really wouldn't make a trade that helps you most because it's with a team in your division?"

I am not really sure what the thought process is of any given GM, much less the two in this case.

[thebruce44]

With that kind of uncertainty, I think it is perfectly reasonable for Harang and Arroyo to be brought up in this conversation.

 

When it is a one year type of rental and the Reds don't figure to contend, I think they would take the best deal available.

[owbc]

Sheets would make a nice #5 starter for the Yankees--otherwise Texas or Houston seem likely suitors. The Reds are unlikely to trade in the division--it's worth a phone call though. No way the Braves give up Vasquez, they are looking at a playoff run in 2010.

 

We have to take a look at Mulder--there isn't much risk involved--unless you count the risk of a small market team trying to rebuild a pitching rotation via free agents/trades.

 

I like the idea of 1-year contracts. It worked well for Hoffman and although we gave Gagne lots of money, at least he went away quickly (unlike Suppan). I wish they would drop $90+ million this year. The payroll can be reduced again in 2011 to try and rebuild for the end of Braun's contract.

[brewmann04]

I really don't see the brewers throwing many Multi year contracts at this group of Pitchers,have to think they would try to sign them to 1 or 2 year deals at the most.

[Invader3K]

I really don't see the brewers throwing many Multi year contracts at this group of Pitchers,have to think they would try to sign them to 1 or 2 year deals at the most.

I agree. Anything more than a two year deal for most of these guys (Mulder, Sheets, Harden, etc) would be pretty foolish, and frankly unwarranted given their histories.

[CheezWizHed]

I saw some early talk about Brad Penny, but nothing lately. I know he struggled in Boston, but looked better with SFG. Seems like he would come cheap with some upside. Think he would sign a Looper-ish contract? 6-7m + option for next year?

[MJLiverock]

The Braves are going to get rid of someone in the rotation. I remember seeing their GM on MLB Network after they picked up Hudson's option and he pretty much acknowledged they have 6 starters and would like to improve the offense. He said having an extra pitcher is a great position to be in when looking to upgrade the offense because they are easy to move.

[TooLiveBrew]

FoxSports rumor via MLBTradeRumors that the Brewers are still a good candidate for where FA Doug Davis winds up. I'm sure I've said this before, but as long as Davis is the lesser of the two SP acquisitions Melvin makes this offseason, I think he'd be fine.

[Invader3K]

I'm fine with Davis as long as he's not paid ridiculous money, and like you said TLB, not the better of the theoretical two pitchers Melvin has his eyes on.

 

Haudricourt also wrote in his blog comments that he is now expecting the Brewers to sign Davis. He also says, "Davis would like to return to Milwaukee". So it sounds like this will not be surprising if it happens.

[brewmann04]

I agree hope Davis is added as the Second pitcher and not more than a 2 year deal.

[brewerfan82]

I thought it might be nice to compile all the rumored targets of the Brewers in one location here. Since we're mainly concerned with how the players WILL produce rather than how they HAVE produced, I've included their Bill James' projections and ordered them by ERA:

 

 W L ERA WHIP AVG Yovani Gallardo 12 8 3.53 1.30 .230 Dave Bush 6 6 4.29 1.30 .271 Manny Parra 7 9 4.59 1.53 .276 Chris Narveson 4 5 4.73 1.42 .259 Jeff Suppan 7 10 5.09 1.51 .290 Justin Duchscherer 10 6 3.16 1.12 .235 Rich Harden 10 5 3.33 1.23 .219 John Smoltz 3 2 3.42 1.18 .254 Eric Bedard 5 5 3.58 1.28 .239 Javier Vazquez 15 9 3.60 1.20 .253 Josh Johnson 14 9 3.63 1.32 .255 John Lackey 13 10 3.81 1.28 .261 John Maine 9 9 3.86 1.35 .244 Randy Wolf 12 10 3.87 1.29 .253 Joe Blanton 13 11 4.06 1.34 .273 Derek Lowe 12 9 4.06 1.38 .279 Jarrod Washburn 8 8 4.09 1.32 .267 Kevin Correia 11 13 4.23 1.41 .269 Doug Davis 11 12 4.46 1.49 .267 Edwin Jackson 10 14 4.75 1.50 .274 [Bill James projection not available] Chris Capuano, John Halama, Mark Mulder, Ben Sheets 

 

One thing is clear, there are A LOT of options to upgrade our rotation.

[Invader3K]

I'd have to say some of those projections seem pretty optimstic. I personally think Suppan's ERA will end up higher than 5.09, but I guess stranger things have happened. Though I agree with your point there are some decent options out there, the trick is not to overpay too much for the wrong guy.

[dadofandrew]

Jackson being the highest is shocking.

[craigharmann]

An interesting name I saw on MLBtraderumors was Renyel Pinto. If DM could swing a deal for Pinto and Lindstrom, that would be pretty helpful for the rotation and the bullpen.

[dadofandrew]

I'm sure FLA would want major leauge ready prospects for Pinto...Lindstrom too, as supposedly, 6 teams are bidding.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Let's get this straight, Suppan is not in the rotation for 2010 (unless there is an injury). If he is we can punt in 2010.

[chadomac]

Why aren't the Brewers trying to get Vasquez? Are the Braves waiting to see if they can ditch Lowe first?

 

I really think the Brewers would be able to make that happen if they wanted to. Having a rotation of Vasquez, Gallardo, Wolf, Parra, and Suppan sure would be nice. Is it because they can't afford it at this point now that Wolf is on board?

[nate82]

Why aren't the Brewers trying to get Vasquez? Are the Braves waiting to see if they can ditch Lowe first?

 

I really think the Brewers would be able to make that happen if they wanted to. Having a rotation of Vasquez, Gallardo, Wolf, Parra, and Suppan sure would be nice. Is it because they can't afford it at this point now that Wolf is on board?

I believe Melvin has talked with the Braves about Vazquez and the Braves were not interested in Hart. I don't see Melvin trading a good prospect for one year of Vazquez. Also the Braves are going to look to see if they can trade Lowe before they try and trade Vazquez. The Braves know they can get a good player or two for Vazquez it is just that they want to get rid of Lowe's contract.

 

I don't think the Braves will be able to find a suitor for Lowe and will trade Vazquez in the end I just don't see the Brewers being the team getting Vazquez.

[endaround]

Because Vasquez would cost a heck of a lot to get and the Braves don't want to move him. They want to move Lowe or Kawakami.

[CWSOmaha]

Ok, so what happens now? What's the Brewers next move? Sit around and wait/hope for a bargain in January? Or Does Melvin stay/become aggressive?

[nate82]

Because Vasquez would cost a heck of a lot to get and the Braves don't want to move him. They want to move Lowe or Kawakami.

Actually new reports have come out that the Braves do not want to trade Kawakami now and it is now down to Lowe and Vazquez. Yes I know it is getting confusing with the Braves who they want to trade and who they don't want to trade. First it was Kawakami, Vazquez, or Lowe then it was Lowe and Kawakami and now it is Lowe and Vazquez.