Melvin wants 2 starters

[Invader3K]

Bucholz should be at least a solid #4/5 type guy, but probably projects higher than that. He has good stuff and had some success this year at the MLB level.

[JonnyLungs]

I would at least give Randy Wolf a phone call before I'd start looking at Washburn or Doug Davis.

[TheCrew07]

Since his name has been spelled wrong in 2 of the last 3 posts it's actually "Buchholz".

 

Clay is a 4 worst case and a #1 best case, he has legit velocity on his FB, a huge sweeping curve, and a good change... he has 3 plus pitches. He also throws a slider which last I read was a pretty average pitch. I personally think he'll be similar to Yo results wise, he's a sub 4 ERA pitcher with the potential to be special.

 

As far as unbiased scouting reports go, most everyone that does that sort of thing charges for it now but here's BA's take on him after the 2007 season.

 

Strengths: Buchholz has a low-90s fastball that tops out at 95 mph, and it's his third-best pitch. His 12-to-6 curveball and his changeup both rate as 70s on the 20-80 scouting scale and are better than any on Boston's big league staff. With terrific athleticism and hand speed, he uses an overhand delivery to launch curves that drop off the table. He'll also mix in a handful of sliders during a game, and that's a plus pitch for him at times. Buchholz improved his mechanics in 2007 and now operates more under control. There's some thought that he's more athletic and faster than Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

Weaknesses: His secondary pitches are so outstanding that Buchholz doesn't use his fastball enough. He needs to throw more fastball strikes early in counts and improve his command of the pitch. Clearly gassed after throwing a career-high 149 innings last season, he needs to get stronger. Working toward that goal, he trained at the Athlete's Performance Institute in Florida during the offseason.

 

The Future: Buchholz is Boston's best pitching prospect since Clemens and has everything he needs to become a No. 1 starter. He'll join Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester in the big league rotation in 2008, giving the Red Sox four quality starters aged 27 and younger. Buchholz is the baby of the group at 23

Here's a Driveline Mechanics breakdown of him as well, between the 2 that should tell you everything you need to know.

 

My only knock on him if you look at the Hardy for Buchholz thread from earlier this season was his lack of IP in his career... but in 2009 he finally got up over 150 IP and broke 190 so he should be good to go for the future. It's also puzzling that for whatever reason Boston seems reluctant to commit a rotation slot to him when he's clearly more talented than some of the other pitchers in Boston's rotation.

[PrinceFielderx1]

My only knock on him if you look at the Hardy for Buchholz thread from earlier this season was his lack of IP in his career... but in 2009 he finally got up over 150 IP and broke 190 so he should be good to go for the future. It's also puzzling that for whatever reason Boston seems reluctant to commit a rotation slot to him when he's clearly more talented than some of the other pitchers in Boston's rotation.

That means Boston's likely to trade him, and get a huge return?

[The Ignitor]

Just saw that Rich Hill got outrighted in Baltimore off the 40-man roster. Hill is apparently thinking of declining the assignment and become a free agent. He had decent numbers in the NL Central for a 4-type starter (whip of 1.3ish, ERA around 4 in the three years with the Scrubs). Might add some good left-handed depth without much cost. Any chance we pursue Hill?

[dadofandrew]

Hill, like many former MLB pitchers, are well worth a minor league deal with an opt-out if he's not on the 40 by 6/1. Since nearly every team would be happy to give him a minor league contract, some one might end up giving him six figures for 2 months.

[Invader3K]

Another guy I wouldn't mind taking a chance on at all. You just can't bank on him being a significant contributor in 2010, though.

[jvrocksaz]

Noah Lowry is said to become a free agent (according to mlbtraderumors.com). He has not pitched since 2007 but is said to be 100% healthy and throwing 3 days per week. He could be another low cost, high reward option much like Mulder.

[JohnBriggs12]

Noah Lowry is said to become a free agent (according to mlbtraderumors.com). He has not pitched since 2007 but is said to be 100% healthy and throwing 3 days per week. He could be another low cost, high reward option much like Mulder.

He's 3 years younger than Mulder, and unlike Mulder who hasn't pitched effectively since 2005, Lowry last pitched reasonably well in 2007.

 

His control is spotty and who knows what it will be after 2 years of inactivity, but even with spotty control, he did record a lot of starts where he got deep in games. His agent says he's fully healthy now. I'd slightly prefer him over Mulder only because I think he's a better bet to regain his previous form. Mulder's just been gone too long for me.

[brewmann04]

the big question is will a combo of Mulder and Lowry and Harden be enough to get the crew back in the playoffs

[JohnBriggs12]

the big question is will a combo of Mulder and Lowry and Harden be enough to get the crew back in the playoffs

I don't think the Brewers have any interest in Harden whatsoever. Harden won't be discounted like Lowry and Mulder will because he's pitched (albeit with limitations) the past 2 years.. Still, when he does start, he's a 5 inning pitcher. He's also prone to the HR. Short starts lead to overworked bullpens and HR allowed killed them in 09. Harden has much more value to a team that already has 2 or 3 workhorses. That's not the Brewers.

 

Sheets, I could see because even in years he missed starts, he did get deep a lot in the ones he did start. But not Harden.

[yoshii8]

Harden did go 6+ innings in 15 of his 26 games last season, and 14 out of 25 in 08', which isn't that bad. I like him more than a lot of FA's because when he is healthy, like Sheets, he is an ace pitcher. He has had 140+ innings the last 2 seasons, I think he would be a great guy to take a chance on, and a good fit w/ Rick Peterson.

[NievesNoNO]

jvrocksaz[/b]]Noah Lowry is said to become a free agent (according to mlbtraderumors.com). He has not pitched since 2007 but is said to be 100% healthy and throwing 3 days per week. He could be another low cost, high reward option much like Mulder.

I don't see much that's high reward from Lowry. Even when healthy hes's just another guy. I would much prefer taking a chance on Harden or Rich Hill. Not that Lowery would be a bad addition, I'm sure the price will be reasonable and if he could give innings from the 4 or 5 spot or long relief that would be useful. I just think we need to hit on someone with some bigger potential whether free agent or by trade.

[thebruce44]

My only knock on him if you look at the Hardy for Buchholz thread from earlier this season was his lack of IP in his career... but in 2009 he finally got up over 150 IP and broke 190 so he should be good to go for the future.

 

I actually look at this as a huge negative. Going from 134.2 IP to 191 IP is pretty scary for a young pitcher. Thats a 56.8 inning increase. Perhaps the Red Sox never planned on keeping him so they didn't worry about bringing him along slowly.

[RyDogg66]

What is the ideal progression for bringing along a starting pitcher, innings pitched-wise? In the minor leagues a lot of times guys have 100 innings or less over the course of a year. If a guy gets up to 125 innings or like Buchholz has 136, what is an "acceptable" progression to an every 5th day 200+ IP starter?

[thebruce44]

Per Tom Verducci:

 

"Why can't they throw 200 innings? Simply put, they're not conditioned for it yet. It's like training for a marathon. You need to build stamina incrementally. The unofficial industry standard is that no young pitcher should throw more than 30 more innings than he did the previous season. It's a general rule of thumb, and one I've been tracking for about a decade. When teams violate the incremental safeguard, it's amazing how often they pay for it."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...ect-candidates-for-2009/

 

Ideally, Clay would have been shut down at 165 or so innings this year, then would have gone for 200 IP next year. Every pitcher is different though, as someone like Lincecum is just a freak. Young arms are so valuable, I would follow this rule to a tee if I was a manager/gm, even in a playoff race.

[sheetskout]

I agree with Verducci and think this rationale is a great testament to the kind of season Rick Porcello really had this season (at 20 years old). It's really sort of a mini-miracle that Yovani threw as much as he did being so young and coming off a full season off.

[thebruce44]

Yo did very well, but you can see that he did suffer in the second half:

 

Games 0-82: 104.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

Games 82-162: 81 IP, 5.00 ERA, 1.53 WHIP

 

Hopefully there are no lingering issues next year and further shows why the Brewers were right to skip his starts and shut him down towards the end of the year.

[colbyjack]

Lowry has had a pretty solid career, at least prior to 2008. Sure, he isn't a top of the rotation starter, but his career numbers are better than pretty much the Brewers entire starting staff from last year outside of Gallardo. I really like him as a possible reclamation project.

 

I've always like Brett Myers as well, who has been incredibly inconsistent throughout his career, but has shown some pretty good flashes, including his start against the Brewers in the postseason last year. I know others have said it, but I would target one reclamation type pitcher like Myers or Lowry, or someone that Rick Peterson and the team's advance scouts have pretty good reports on, and one more proven commodity like Doug Davis, Justin Duchscherer, Randy Johnson (if he's healthy enough to return -- Melvin pursued Johnson last offseason despite his desire to stay on the West Coast) or even Ben Sheets.

 

I'm not as confident as the team acquiring a solid starter via trade, since I don't believe the Brewers are willing to deal what would be required to land such a pitcher. I do believe Melvin is intent on keeping Fielder, so unless the team can get more than we might expect for Hardy, Hart, Gamel, McGehee or some combination of those players, I think the best bet is to trust the professional scouts and try to find a reclamation project similar to Jaret Wright of the Braves a few years back. I know that's difficult, since you can't count on that type of production, but if a few of those types of guys are added you increase your chance of one making you look good.

 

This is all assuming the Brewers aren't going to do something surprising like spending big bucks on John Lackey or dealing Fielder for someone like Buchholz.

[yoshii8]

Colby, I agree that there are a number of high risk/reward type pitchers out there that I really hope that Melvin pursues. Although, I'm not sure I want a character like Brett Myers on our roster. I don't like some of the things that he has done in his past. I do like a number of other guys like Duchsherer, Sheets, Bedard, Big Unit, Smoltz, Escobar and Harden.

 

I also find it interesting that you think it would take Fielder to acquire a Buchholz type talent. Since I value your opinion, I'd love to hear what type of pitcher you think we could get for Hardy, Hart, Gamel and McGehee type players. I was under the impression that Hardy and Gamel would've been enough to get Buchholz.

[Hate those Rodents]

Me thinks Melvin learned his starting pitching lesson and will remedy it similar to how Ron Wolf remedied his cornerback position the year after Randy Moss arrived in Minnesota. Except instead of drafting a corner back with his first three selections, Melvin is going to land us four new starting pitchers that will start at least ten games for us. (so three new full-season starters with a fourth that fills in when needed). Anybody want to take that bet.

[colbyjack]

I also find it interesting that you think it would take Fielder to acquire a Buchholz type talent. Since I value your opinion, I'd love to hear what type of pitcher you think we could get for Hardy, Hart, Gamel and McGehee type players. I was under the impression that Hardy and Gamel would've been enough to get Buchholz.

 

Young pitchers, especially power arms like Buchholz are really hard to come by. You really have to give up more talent than you may expect to acquire an arm like that. If Fielder were dealt, I definitely would expect more in return than a pitcher like Buchholz, but he would be the centerpiece of such a proposed deal.

 

If Hardy and Gamel would be enough, I make that trade without blinking. Michael Bowden may be a more realistic target from the Red Sox for Hardy.

 

I'm not sure what to expect for Hardy and the rest of the hitters mentioned. Jonathan Sanchez is frequently brought up here, and that is probably the type of arm one could expect, possibly even straight up for Hart given the Giants' need for bats. It really is a shame that Hardy had such a rough season, as dealing him when his value is low pretty much sucks (although it does help that he plays shortstop and is a strong candidate to rebound significantly next year), but I do believe he is as good as gone. Since the team doesn't have much pitching in the upper levels to complement a Hardy deal, I'm not particularly optimistic of what the team will be able to get in return. Maybe you could land a decent pitcher if you were to package Hardy with someone like Gamel or McGehee, Salome or Lucroy and possibly even Carlos Villanueva (just throwing out some names off of the top of my head), but such a pitcher isn't going to come without significant warts to his game.

 

Jeremy Guthrie has been brought up before as well, as I could see that kind of swap for Hardy.

[yoshii8]

The Dodgers just declined Jon Garland's option, I'd be happy if he was brought in at a reasonable rate. I think he is a solid, reliable #3 or #4 starter.

[nate82]

The Dodgers just declined Jon Garland's option, I'd be happy if he was brought in at a reasonable rate. I think he is a solid, reliable #3 or #4 starter.

I would definitely prefer Garland over Washburn or Davis.

[craigharmann]

The Dodgers just declined Jon Garland's option

Yes please.