Melvin wants 2 starters

[craigharmann]

some of Sheets' sabermetric stats were better than Suppan's last year.

On a positive note, Sheets gave up less homers that Suppan and Looper combined.

[Tbadder]

I wonder how Doug is gonna like Doug Davis and...oh I don't know...someone even older, as the two starting pitchers. The guy talks and talks about pitching as being risky. So Doug, take a risk on a young pitcher, not a proven piece of toast.

[endaround]

I am suprised to see Sheets name coming up so much. That guy was basically hated her a year ago.

I think that Ben was 'hated' by the 'fair weather fan' crowd. These people would have hated on Paul Molitor in the 1980's as well. I would guess most people who have been fans for the long term realize that he's arguably the best pitcher this franchise has ever had. For god's sake he started the all-star game last year. I can kind of understand why he is bent out of shape at the Brewers. Instead of wasting $50 million on Jeff Suppan, they could have extended Sheets 3 years or so. I would guess that even after missing the entire season, some of Sheets' sabermetric stats were better than Suppan's last year.

 

Sheets had a value of 0.0 WAR. Suppan was at -0.7 WAR. So yes Sheets had more value to the Brewers.

[Polish Falcons]

How about Corey Hart for Kenshin Kawakami?

 

http://jorgesaysno.blogspot.com/2009/10/hypothetically-speaking-would-you-trade.html

[nate82]

How about Corey Hart for Kenshin Kawakami?

 

http://jorgesaysno.blogspot.com/2009/10/hypothetically-speaking-would-you-trade.html

I would mind getting Kawakami from the Braves. Kawakami would be a nice #3 starter which would be an upgrade over Suppan, Looper, and Parra. He would be just a little bit better than Bush. The Brewers would only have to find a #1 or #2 type starting pitcher and Kawakami surprisingly is very cheap at $6.667m in '10 and $6.667m in '11. A #3 like starter at about $7m is a steal. Hart will likely get a raise in how much he is making in arbitration somewhere around $5m sounds about right. If Hart is traded though I believe the Brewers would have to hold onto Cameron though especially since in the press conference Melvin mentioned that they are not likely to move Gamel to the OF which is a mistake IMHO.

 

The Brewers could save a lot of money if they do not have to bring back Cameron. Now I really love Cameron and want him back since I believe he is the 3rd best player on the team (positional player). But if the Brewers can save money and bring in a #1 or #2 type starter I would let Cameron go if he would be in the way of acquiring a #1 or #2 type starter.

 

I just did a quick look at what the Brewers would have without Cameron, Hardy, Hart, Kendall, Looper, Weathers, and McClung on the team. Total is in millions. Assuming the Brewers resign Cameron at $8m that brings it to $71m that leaves the Brewers with about $14m to work with. That means Kawakami could be had and he would be the #3 starter on the team that leaves about $8m left for the Brewers to spend on a catcher and another starting pitcher. The catcher will probably come from within the organization and you will also have to figure that either Heether or Iribarren will be with the team at about $.5m. So about $1m needs to be subtracted from that number leaving about $7m for the Brewers to sign a FA pitcher assuming Hardy doesn't bring back a #2 type pitcher. This is where Sheets, Harden, Escobar, Bedard, and Webb come in. Whoever the Brewers can sign for that $7m plus incentives will make that rotation rather good. The incentives would cut into the trade deadline budget though so you have to be careful there.

 

These numbers are not exact just what I believe each player will get. I would say a good margin would be within a of $1-5m for the total salary and player salaries that are not absolutes.

 

Player		Salary
Jeff Suppan		$12.50
Prince Fielder		$10.50
Trevor Hoffman		$8.00
David Riske		$4.50
David Bush		$6.00
Rickie Weeks		$4.00
Jody Gerut		$2.50
Ryan Braun		$1.00
Craig Counsell		$1.00
Todd Coffey		$3.00
Carlos Villanueva		$2.00
Manny Parra		$0.50
Mike Rivera		$1.50
Yovani Gallardo		$0.50
Mitch Stetter		$0.50
Mark DiFelice		$0.50
Alcides Escobar		$0.50
Mat Gamel		$0.50
Casey McGehee		$0.50
Chris Narveson		$0.50
Claudio Vargas		$2.50
Total		$63.00

[TheCrew07]

They are paying most of Hall's contract next next season as well

[trwi7]

Have to add the $7ish M we're paying Hall.

[FVBrewerFan]

Gallardo

Sheets

Capuano

Mike Jones

Suppan

[BREWCREW5]

There is no way Sheets is a Brewer next year. Are some thinking this because of Ash's comments.

 

What was he supposed to say to the media?

 

"We have no interest in Sheets. He is injury prone and coming off an injury where he did not play at all in 2009. He is going to cost too much for a small market team to depend on him not getting injured. Way too much risk for the money"

[nate82]

Yeah I forgot about Hall's contract that the Brewers owe yet. So it is around $70m.

[Hate those Rodents]

I would personally rather have Hart than KK. Only because I am stepping away from the ledge and taking a deep breath and realizing we WILL get two good starting pitchers this off-season. If KK were younger, then I'd do this deal. But for an average-ish and old SP that will likely only help us for two years........I'd rather keep Hart and sign Doug Davis. At the minimum, I'd wait on this one til I know what the free agent market is for the five or so SP's I desire and also until I see what we get for Hardy.

[fleehaw]

Kawakami, Gallardo, and Davis in 2009.

 

K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 OAvt WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP

2009 Braves 6.04 3.28 1.84 0.86 .258 1.34 .291 73.3 % 4.21

2009 Brewers 9.89 4.56 2.17 1.02 .223 1.31 .288 77.9 % 3.97

2009 Dbacks 6.46 4.56 1.42 1.11 .261 1.50 .294 76.0 % 4.84

 

Kawakami certainly seems to be a better pitcher than Davis and isn't a far fall off of Gallardo's 2009 season. Granted, it's his first and only year in the majors, but he will cost less in salary going forward than Davis, and only require a 2 year commitment. His age is somewhat of a risk (same age as Davis), and there's a risk that Hart suddenly turns it on in ATL, but it's a calculated risk that doesn't break the bank.

 

Even if Kawakami regresses off his 2009 stats, he'll still be a better pitcher than Davis.

[marty22]

Honestly, I'm not sure it would even take Hart. It sounds like, at least in circles of braves fans, they want to get rid of him and aren't too concerned with the return. They have "too much starting pitching" and could use the 6.7 MM elsewhere.

[yoshii8]

I was just checking out Rich Harden on fangraphs and I noticed that he only threw a fastball and changeup this past season. He stopped throwing his slider and split finger fastball. I'm guessing this was to prevent him from injury, but he was less effective than he was the season before. With Rick Peterson as our pitching coach, wouldn't he be the perfect guy to sign? He has pitched 140+ innings the last 2 seasons, and is one of the best when healthy.

[TooLiveBrew]

That's an interesting observation, yoshii. However, if he had to avoid throwing the breaking pitches in order to stay healthy, I wonder just how much help Peterson could actually be. Iirc, Peterson focuses on 'pre-hab', so I wonder what he can do with already damaged goods. I guess we'll find out just what kind of magic he can work with injury prone pitchers. This is going to be an exciting offseason.

[nate82]

Harden would be fine if we got another pitcher to put in between him and Gallardo. I don't think you can count on Harden being a #1 or #2 but as a #3 he would be fine. Gallardo, FA or trade, Harden, Bush, and Suppan/Parra/Butler/Narveson. If the Brewers went the risky route you could have Gallardo, Sheets, Harden, Bush, and Suppan/Parra/Butler/Narveson. That would be an extremely risky rotation injury wise. Having both Sheets and Harden would be rather risky Harden hasn't put up a lot of innings and Sheets has been out for a year.

 

Maybe with Peterson though he could fix something that Sheets and Harden were doing wrong before in their mechanics and they will be healthy for the whole year. I wouldn't be opposed to having both Sheets and Harden on the team but wow that is a lot of risk the Brewers would have to be willing to take on.

[paul253]

I would be thrilled with Gallardo, Sheets, Harden, Parra, and Bush, mainly because you'd still have Suppan, Butler, Jones, Narveson, etc as depth. You probably can't count on both Sheets and Harden to stay healthy all year, but unless they have injuries which causes them to miss a two to three months, I think you can get by with that depth. You'd also probably have a few other options because they will presumably trade Hardy for some pitching. Doug Melvin has to be willing to take a chance on pitching this offseason. Brandon Webb, Sheets, Harden....whatever....but he has to get someone with a high upside because this team needs more than a #4 pitcher to win. With Fielder quickly approaching free agency, the time to take a chance is now.

[nate82]

Doug Melvin has to be willing to take a chance on pitching this offseason. Brandon Webb, Sheets, Harden....whatever....but he has to get someone with a high upside because this team needs more than a #4 pitcher to win. With Fielder quickly approaching free agency, the time to take a chance is now.

This would be a real big chance and I doubt it will happen not because Melvin may not want to do it but because I don't really think Sheets is willing to come back to Milwaukee.

[pingman]

I've got a hunch the Braves will go with Matt Diaz in LF & Jason Heyward in RF.....therefore they don't need Hart

 

....Rafael Soriano & Mike Gonzalez are both free agents & they'll probably only resign one of them ....therefore a top setup man like Coffey would fill a need for the Braves & might be enough for the Brewers to land Kawakami

[marty22]

I don't think we can overlook Carl Pavano. He got really unlucky this year, and I think he could be a legitimate #3 for us. He had a whip of 4.00 even, and a walk rate under 2. The best part is that he could be had rather cheaply...I'm a bad judge of this, but i think 1 yr for 6-7 would be fair. He's better than looper for the same price

[JohnBriggs12]

Harden doesn't fit the profile of what the Brewers need because none of the returning Brewer starters are good bets to accumulate 210 or more innings because none of the current Brewer starters is a guy who records a lot of quick outs. Harden hasn't pitched more than 150 innings since 2004. The Brewer rotation A. Didn't go deep enough in games; B. Allowed too many HR; C. Lacked depth. Harden solves none of those problems. Assuming 32 starts per starter, he missed 6 requiring a fill in. He allowed 23 HR in 141 innings. He got past the 6th inning just 4 times.

 

Last year, 3 NL teams had their #3 starters exceed 210 innings (Wolf 214, Pineiro 216, and Marquis 214). Not coincidently, all 3 of those teams made the playoffs and oh, all 3 of those guys are FA.

 

If the Brewers are going to take a chance on a guy coming back from injury or absence, I'd rather go with a Duchscherer who as a starter in 08 often got into the 7th, 8th and 9th. I'd even prefer Sheets over Harden because when he was healthy enough to start, Sheets usually gave the pen a rest. In short, 25 starts from Sheets are more useful than 25 from Harden.

[fondybrewfan]

TH has a new blog up that shows the strong possibilty that Mark Mulder could end up in Milwaukee due to his connections with Macha & Peterson. Wouldn't be a bad gamble at all and it would cost virtually nothing if he flames out. If Melvin does sign him I don't think he should count as one of the two starters because you absolutely cannot depend on him being healthy enough to make it through the season

[Invader3K]

He should be cheap since he hasn't pitched more than 100 innings since 2005. Give him a low contract and let him prove himself. Just don't plan on building the rotation around him or anything.

[yoshii8]

There was a nice article on Brewers.com about Ben Sheets coming back this season. I would be more than ok w/ bringing him back, I'd hate to see him pitch for another team.

 

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091023&content_id=7535658&vkey=news_mil&fext=.jsp&c_id=mil

[BREWCREW5]

He should be cheap since he hasn't pitched more than 100 innings since 2005. Give him a low contract and let him prove himself. Just don't plan on building the rotation around him or anything.

If Mulder is brought in, I hope he would not be considered one of the "two" pitchers that Melvin is wanting. Hopefully, the brewers trade for or sign two healthy, pretty good pitchers along with a "buy low" type like Mulder. Maybe I am dreaming. We'll see.