Melvin wants 2 starters

[Oldcity]

No Doug Davis, no Jarrod Washburn, no Jon Garland. If they won't sign Smoltz or Sheets they should just save the money for a midseason trade.

[Invader3K]

The problem with that, is who knows if Sheets will actually be able to pitch anytime soon? Supposedly he is going to throw for teams at the end of this month, so we'll see what happens. I'm not convinced Smoltz is some huge upgrade over Davis, etc. at this point, either.

 

A nice tidbit I just saw on the JSOnline blog:

"If Davis is signed, you're replacing this:

Looper 194 IP 5.22 ERA
Suppan 161 IP 5.29 ERA

With This:

Wolf 214 IP 3.23 ERA
Davis 203 IP 4.12 ERA"

 

I don't think that's an insignificant improvement.

[paul253]

I don't think that's an insignificant improvement.

 

Just imagine that plus a step forward from Manny Parra.

[joepepsi]

I don't think that's an insignificant improvement.

 

Just imagine that plus a step forward from Manny Parra.

And a healthy Dave Bush. At the risk of delivering famous last words, there's no way Bush and Parra will be as bad as they were last year. But if they are, they will be on a shorter leash and out of the rotation permanently. Those two returning to league average ERA's probably means 5 more wins compared to last year.

[BREWCREW5]

and a better Gallardo...

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, I think the most exciting thing to me about 2010 is the very reasonable assumption that all three of Parra, Gallardo, & Bush will have better results.

[Milltownhooker]

I still think the crew will make another play for John Maine once the Mets add Pinero

[BrewCrewForever]

Yeah, I think the most exciting thing to me about 2010 is the very reasonable assumption that all three of Parra, Gallardo, & Bush will have better results.

If they are all better with Wolf and if Suppan can even be average I agree, our rotation should be fine. I just hope that Bush is healthy, Parra figures it out and Gallardo lowers his walk totals.

[paul253]

I still think the crew will make another play for John Maine once the Mets add Pinero

 

I don't see the fascination for John Maine. His numbers just scream pedestrian. The only pitcher I'd substitute him for is Suppan, and that's just certainly not saying much.

[Oldcity]

It's going to be kind of annoying when most of their starters regress to the mean and Rick Peterson gets all the credit.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think that's an insignificant improvement.

 

Just imagine that plus a step forward from Manny Parra.

I hate to bring this up, but if Davis or another starter is signed, someone who's now in the rotation isn't going to be on opening day. The choices are Suppan who's being paid $12.5 million and never pitched out of the bullpen, Bush, who likely will get somewhere around $4 million in arbitration and who is a FA after this year, and Parra.

 

My guess is if all are healthy this spring, one gets dealt and since Suppan can't be, that leaves Bush or Parra. I think they'd like to deal Bush but you never know. His value isn't very high and he's not all that cheap.

[endaround]

Then what is the point of signing anyone? The idea of a cheap signing is to replace Suppan and provide depth. If you're not doing that there is no reason to sign anyone.

[RockCoCougars]

Then what is the point of signing anyone? The idea of a cheap signing is to replace Suppan and provide depth. If you're not doing that there is no reason to sign anyone.

Exactly. This team cannot afford to give Suppan a chance to start games at the beginning of the season if they want to contend. The only role that he should possibly have is a Dave Burba type long-relief/mop up role, in which he would probably pitch only every fourth game or so anyway. He should either be the 11th/12th guy on the staff or cut in spring training.

[paul253]

Jeff Suppan should pitch as much as Elmer Dessens did a few years. Only in games where we are up by a ton or down by a ton.

[Klements Bratwurst]

Latest: Doug Davis' Agent says Melvin keeps in contact with him regarding Davis. Nothing imminent.

[filthyfrog]

Jeff Suppan should pitch as much as Elmer Dessens did a few years. Only in games where we are up by a ton or down by a ton.

That's easy. Every Suppan start will be a game where we're down by a ton, so we don't even need to worry about it.

[Invader3K]

From Haudricourt, re: Sheets:

 

"Doug Melvin told me he'll have a scout at the throwing session of Ben Sheets, but it sounded more like due diligence than anything."

[Invader3K]

I see the Mets signed Maine for $3.3 million this year, plus a couple hundred thousand in incentives. I think that makes him much more tradable, if the Mets are looking to go that route.

[TheCrew07]

I'm shocked that people are posting that 1 of Garland, Davis, and Washburn need to be signed. Look past ERA.... look at the peripherals, look at the age, why would we want any of those pitchers on a multi year with those peripherals? I get that Davis seems to always pitch better than his peripherals, but sooner or later that's going to catch him with him like it did his last year in Milwaukee and he's going to be 34 years old next season.

 

Garland's peripherals are putrid, he only averages mid 4s for a K/9 and is now the wrong side of 30, but he's still young enough he'll want multiple years.

 

Washburn has a similar BB rate to Garland, however he does K 1 more batter per 9 IP, but he's going to be 35 years old and for the second time in his career he had his best season coming into FA.

 

There are red flags every where with these guys, which is pretty much why none of them has signed a multi year deal yet. If Melvin can get 1 on a 1 year deal.... well fine, at least he's limiting the possible damage that way.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, while I do think one more SP is needed, I really only want to see any of those three signed to a one year deal. I guess I could swallow Davis or Washburn signing for like 2 years and $8 million total or so, if that is what it takes. I firmly believe Melvin isn't going to do something stupid and sign any of them to an unwarranted three year deal. It's become obvious that signing mediocre SPs to longer term deals just doesn't work out, especially for teams like Milwaukee.

[strawbossisevil]

Right, agreed with Invader. I was thinking the Brewers were looking at 1 year, two if the most on these pitchers. I think Invader hits it on the head, signing them for two years 8 million wouldn't be horrible, if they are bad next season, 4 million would not be a devastating price to pay for a #5 starter/long reliever.

 

Both Davis and Washburn are better pitchers than Suppan, and we are talking yearly salaries at about a third of the cost of what Suppan is making this season.

[endaround]

I'm shocked that people are posting that 1 of Garland, Davis, and Washburn need to be signed. Look past ERA.... look at the peripherals, look at the age, why would we want any of those pitchers on a multi year with those peripherals? I get that Davis seems to always pitch better than his peripherals, but sooner or later that's going to catch him with him like it did his last year in Milwaukee and he's going to be 34 years old next season.

 

Garland's peripherals are putrid, he only averages mid 4s for a K/9 and is now the wrong side of 30, but he's still young enough he'll want multiple years.

 

Washburn has a similar BB rate to Garland, however he does K 1 more batter per 9 IP, but he's going to be 35 years old and for the second time in his career he had his best season coming into FA.

 

There are red flags every where with these guys, which is pretty much why none of them has signed a multi year deal yet. If Melvin can get 1 on a 1 year deal.... well fine, at least he's limiting the possible damage that way.

 

No Davis has always pitched better than people think, his peripherals have been stellar most years. His FIP his last year as a Brewer was 4.38. That said he has injury issues and is coming off a terrible year. I wouldn't want him for multiple years. Garland is the only pitcher I would really consider giving multiple years to.

[JohnBriggs12]

Garland's peripherals are putrid, he only averages mid 4s for a K9 and is now on the wrong side of 30

 

 

Warren Spahn: Career K/9 rate: 4.4, Wins after turning 30: 284.

 

Not saying Garland is Spahn but just that K/9 isn't a true indicator of success or that 30 means anything. WHIP is much more indicative. Garland's worst year was 1.505 in the AL which matched Suppan's best as a Brewer. His career number of 1.387 defines average. Garland is an average major league starter. Last year the Brewers had one starter better than average and 4 well below average.

[TheCrew07]

Davis' BB rate is horrid and always has been... FIP is fine and dandy, but it's weighted too heavily towards the K rate, and Davis has always had a pretty good K rate. It's the same reason Parra always has a decent FIP.

[paul253]

Look past ERA.... look at the peripherals, look at the age, why would we want any of those pitchers on a multi year with those peripherals?

 

The only problem is you also have to look at the alternative to not signing anyone, which at this point is probably Suppan, although I suppose Narveson could get a shot.