Melvin wants 2 starters

[Oldcity]

Ugh. Instead of getting Smoltz for one year they'll get one of these nondescript guys for two.

[Invader3K]

MLB Trade Rumors has a story up that the Twins have apparently made a one year offer to Washburn. Melvin may want to step up and try to get someone sooner than later before the options dry up. I really don't want to see him go two years on Washburn if the Twins are only offering one, though. Maybe a one year deal with a mutual option for the second or something.

 

I do think the division is going to come down to the Cards and Brewers this season. The Cubs are starting to look long in the tooth, and haven't made any really major upgrades. The other three teams in the division could be pretty awful. The Crew needs another starter if for nothing more than depth through the season. I would love to see the Brewers make a nice run this year and finish ahead of the Cards, and shut their fans up a bit. Last season left a bad taste in my mouth after how we showed them up early in the year.

 

I have to disagree with some of the people pining for Smoltz. He'll be 43 next year, and while he had some success with the Cards, he was mostly pretty bad last season. I think some team will overpay for him based on his past HoF caliber career, and I don't think it should be the Brewers.

[paul253]

If Melvin doesn't sign someone I am going to be very disappointed. Last offseason he did next to nothing to improve the rotation, settling on Braden Looper. If he thinks replacing Looper with Wolf is going to all of a sudden make us a contender he is crazy. They allowed Cameron and Kendall to leave and traded Hardy all to save money. I realize there were some raisies, but c'mon. Wolf, Counsell, and Zaun and all of a sudden we don't have any money left? He signed a reliever in Hawkins, when, in no offense to Hawkins, we didn't really need him because we already have a crowded bullpen. If he allows this team to enter 2010 with Jeff Suppan as the #5 starter I am going to be extremely disappointed with him, for the second year in a row. I don't care if its Garland, Washburn, Sheets, or Davis. All of them are better options than Suppan and would give us more depth. Just do something!

[Invader3K]

If he thinks replacing Looper with Wolf is going to all of a sudden make us a contender he is crazy

 

Actually if we had Wolf instead of Looper last season, we would have been much closer to making the playoffs.

[paul253]

Actually if we had Wolf instead of Looper last season, we would have been much closer to making the playoffs.

 

I'm not sure about that. As bad as Looper pitched, the Brewers still went 20-14 in games he started. They finished 11 games behind the division winner and 12 behind the wild card winner. If we had simply replaced him with Wolf, and everything else played out the way it did, the Brewers would have had to go like 31-3 in games he started in order to make up the 11 game difference. I realize it's not that simple but you get my point. Simply replacing Looper with Wolf would not have gotten us to the playoffs last season and I highly doubt it will next season.

 

The Brewers, unless they have something else in mind, aren't even replacing their worst starting pitcher from last year.

[miggs721]

What if re replace Suppan, and bring back Loop at 3 million or so....Thats only if we dont sign Garland, Davis, or Washburn

 

1)Gallardo

2)Wolf

3)Parra

4)Bush

5)Looper

 

or

 

1)Gallardo

2)Wolf

3)Garland

4)Parra

5)Bush

 

I'd love it going righty,lefty,righty,lefty,righy, but we will see what happens

4)

[TooLiveBrew]

As bad as Looper pitched, the Brewers still went 20-14 in games he started.

 

This was a bad argument when you brought it up a while ago, and it's even worse imo now that you're trying repeating it. Nevermind the extra stress Looper's crappy pitching put on the bullpen, right?

[logan82]

Probably would have been almost 4 wins if we had Wolf instead of Looper last year. 123 runs vs 81 runs in similar innings. We should probably replace Gallardo though. We were only 16-14 when he pitched. He kind of sucked, right?

[pogokat]

i still think there will be a trade

[nate82]

i still think there will be a trade

Possibly but I haven't really seen much or heard many rumblings lately about the Brewers and a trade. The last I heard about a trade involving the Brewers was with the Braves and that didn't work out because the Braves were not interested in Hart.

 

I believe the Brewers will talk with Sheets one more time to see if he has brought his price tag down and if not they will go in another direction possibly Bedard, Davis, Washburn, or Garland whoever the Brewers can get at the lowest price is who the Brewers will end up with. I think the Brewers could get Bedard the cheapest with an incentive laden contract probably at a base salary of $3m with $2-4m in incentives with a mutual option for the next year at $8m with a $1m buyout if the Brewers decide not to bring Bedard back.

 

If a trade does go down I would expect it to involve either Lucroy or Salome though I would rather see Hart traded because there is an excess of corner OF that could easily replace Hart's production on the market (Nady, Damon, Church, etc....).

[logan82]

That also limits Hart's value since those teams could easily just pay a guy instead of giving up something of value. Hart isn't exactly cheap either.

[paul253]

This was a bad argument when you brought it up a while ago, and it's even worse imo now that you're trying repeating it. Nevermind the extra stress Looper's crappy pitching put on the bullpen, right?

 

Why is it a bad argument? Because you don't like it? I am simply responding to the point that someone made that had we had Randy Wolf last season instead of Braden Looper we would have been close/closer to making the playoffs. You can look at stat after stat after stat, but the bottom line is wins and losses. The Brewers won more games than they lost with Looper, and they still finished 11 games behind St. Louis. Replacing Looper with Wolf would not have gotten us to the playoffs, and if you think it would have you are insane. If you think that if we had a pitcher that would have pitched an extra inning here and there and "saved" the bullpen that it would made an 11 game difference, you are again insane. Last season in the same number of starts Wolf pitched about 20 innings more than Looper. That equates to about once every five games the bullpen would have been spared about 2/3 of an inning. Would if have helped? Sure it would have helped. Would it have been the difference between playoffs and no playoffs? Of course not. So since my arument is so terrible, do you believe that we would have made the postseason with Wolf instead of Looper? If not then I don't undestand exactly what your problem is.

 

Probably would have been almost 4 wins if we had Wolf instead of Looper last year. 123 runs vs 81 runs in similar innings. We should probably replace Gallardo though. We were only 16-14 when he pitched. He kind of sucked, right?

 

No offense but why don't you at least try to understand what I am saying? I am not arguing Looper is a good picher and I am not saying Wolf is bad. And despite your lovely comparison I am not suggesting that the team record of a pitcher indicates how good of a pitcher he is. Again, I was responding to a specific point using specific names and numbers. The Wolf signing was a good move, but all I am saying is Melvin needs to do more. You are not going to win 11 extra games replacing Looper with Wolf. So we may win 4 more....great. Now go and replace Suppan with someone who is capable of getting us 5 additional wins...now we are getting somewhere.

 

Toolive I am curious, do you think Melvin has done enough so far to address the pitching staff? Are you satisfied that signing Randy Wolf, letting Looper walk and keeping everything else the same(as far as the rotation goes) is going to make that much of a difference?

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Melvin made a nice first step in getting Wolf. It's not easy to get players of his caliber without having to trade away parts and/or prospects. I don't think he's done, so I really don't see the point in evaluating the team in January just so we can complain.

 

 

You can look at stat after stat after stat, but the bottom line is wins and losses.

 

Right, except that the stats you dismiss are what leads to wins & losses. Things like Looper getting a boatload of run support are not related to his own performance... but I know you're actually aware of that even though you continue to act like it's irrelevant.

 

 

You are not going to win 11 extra games replacing Looper with Wolf

 

This is not how it works. You gain wins by improving individual player performance, and that's exactly what bringing in Randy Wolf does.

[paul253]

I think Melvin made a nice first step in getting Wolf. It's not easy to get players of his caliber without having to trade away parts and/or prospects. I don't think he's done, so I really don't see the point in evaluating the team in January just so we can complain.

 

I agree you on the point about getting Wolf. I think it was a great move. I also agree you can't evaluate a team in January, but there are several reasons I did bring this up now. For one, they already used their main trading piece in JJ Hardy, so a big trade is probably unlikely. Second, Melvin has made it sound as though he basically has little to no money left to spend, so another big free agent signing is unlikely too. I would certainly expect, though, that money can be found for another starting pitcher like Garland or Davis. Third, the pitching staff last season was absolutely awful, and I can't understand why he thinks keeping four of the same five starters is going to lead to any sort of drastic improvement. While it's true Gallardo and Parra are young and certainly have a chance to improve, look what happened when he expected too much of Parra last year. You can't base your entire off season on assumptions that certain players will improve, which seems to be what he did last season. I feel as though he is making the same mistake he made last year.

Right, except that the stats you dismiss are what leads to wins & losses. Things like Looper getting a boatload of run support are not related to his own performance... but I know you're actually aware of that even though you continue to act like it's irrelevant.

I am not dismissing any stats. I am just looking at results. I am not comparing Looper to Wolf. I am comparing Loopers results to Wolfs results. Thats why I said that as bad as Looper pitched, the team was still 6 games over .500 when he started. That's also why I said replacing his results with whatever Wolf would have had would still more than likely not have led to a playoff birth last year. It seems like you are dismissing last years results (wins) in favor of statistics. So while I absolutely agree Wolf is an upgrade over Looper, I just don't think it's enough of an upgrade to call it a day. A 4 or 5 game improvement over last year is good, but it probably isn't good enough.

 

This is not how it works. You gain wins by improving individual player performance, and that's exactly what bringing in Randy Wolf does.

 

Again, couldn't agree more. But you have to improve more than just that one spot, which was my point from the very beginning. You need an improvement to Suppan too, at the very least. Garland, Davis, Sheets, Washburn will all more than likely be better than Suppan was. So go sign one of them!

[JohnBriggs12]

I think Melvin made a major strategic blunder by tendering Bush. Whatever Bush gets in arbitration is about double what he would have gotten as FA coming off 6.38 ERA year. 30 year old pitchers like Bush with career 4.70 ERAs and a losing record pitching for some good offensive teams and coming off a horrible year are just not in demand. Now not only are they overpaying Bush, they are forced to give him an inside track on a rotation spot. Melvin talks about having flexibility but he surrendered flexibilty by tendering Bush. Non-tendering him wouldn't have prevented them from keeping him if the price was right and it would also have afforded them extra cash to see if they could do better.

 

Bush can still make that look like a good decision if he goes out and pitches like he did in 08. But with 2 of his last 3 seasons posting 5.12 and 6.38 ERAs, it's a pretty big gamble.

[TooLiveBrew]

It seems like you are dismissing last years results (wins) in favor of statistics.

 

Absolutely. One is helpful in constructing a team going forward, and the other isn't.

 

 

So while I absolutely agree Wolf is an upgrade over Looper, I just don't think it's enough of an upgrade to call it a day.

 

You are stating concern over the Brewers 'calling it a day'. I am not at this point.

[paul253]

You are stating concern over the Brewers 'calling it a day'. I am not at this point.

 

My concern is based on seemingly repeated comments by him that make it seem as though he has no money left to spend. I do think that he'll make another move or two, but nothing all that significant. Trading Hart for anything of value seems like a pipe dream. John Maine's name was thrown around earlier, a guy with a career ERA of 4.22, so if that's the type of player we can expect in return I am not all that excited. I am still hopeful he'll sign a starter, but the more or more free agents that sign the fewer and fewer options he has. I guess we'll have to see.

[Invader3K]

There are still a ton of FA starting pitchers out there. It's not like they are signing by the day. In fact, the market for SPs in general has been pretty quiet lately. I think Melvin is being shrewd in waiting the market out. I mean, if he can get Washburn or Davis cheaper (just to use an example) than the other by waiting, is it really that big a difference?

[RyDogg66]

Id be more worried of Melvin said that the brewers had a lot of money to spend and were looking to sign more pitchers as soon as possible. Doug Melvin chooses his words wisely.

[brewmann04]

Maybe they believe a combo of Cappy and Mulder can make that second Starter that he talked about at the start of Fa.

[Crew2323]

Maybe they believe a combo of Cappy and Mulder can make that second Starter that he talked about at the start of Fa.

 

If that's Melvin's plan--to count on Cappy, who hasn't pitched in a MLB game since 2007, and Mulder, who has pitched in 6 games since 2006--he may as well update his resume because he'll need it going into 2011. If the Brewers get anything decent from those two, consider it icing on the cake. But if the Brewers intend on relying on them, it will be a long season. I believe Melvin is playing coy right now. As the price tags for the remaining FA pitchers drop by the day, Melvin will eventually add a servicable if not decent arm to the starting pitching staff.

[RockCoCougars]

Maybe they believe a combo of Cappy and Mulder can make that second Starter that he talked about at the start of Fa.

 

If that's Melvin's plan--to count on Cappy, who hasn't pitched in a MLB game since 2007, and Mulder, who has pitched in 6 games since 2006--he may as well update his resume because he'll need it going into 2011. If the Brewers get anything decent from those two, consider it icing on the cake. But if the Brewers intend on relying on them, it will be a long season. I believe Melvin is playing coy right now. As the price tags for the remaining FA pitchers drop by the day, Melvin will eventually add a servicable if not decent arm to the starting pitching staff.

Exactly. The odds are 95% that neither Capuano or Mulder will be able to pitch effectively in the majors anymore. That's why I've said that if Melvin wants to snow the fans with a 'name' lefty, he may as well sign Tom Glavine. He hasn't retired yet, and has a better chance of effectiveness than those two. Don't construe this that I'm advocating the team sign Glavine, but expecting Mulder or Capuano to do anything at this point is a pipe dream. I will say that I'll be upset if the team wastes more than a league minimum plus incentive deal on Mulder, which is my fear. Why else would they be making such a big deal (scouting visits, etc.) about what amounts to a non-roster invite?

[Invader3K]

Supposedly the Cubs are going after Sheets. I would not like to see that. Really, he can go anywhere but the Cubs or Cards as far as I'm concerned. You have to wonder if he signs with the Cubs, if it's because of a Favre-esque vendetta against the Brewers.

[bobskube]

Guys, there are many negotiations going on now. There is just a lot of posturing going on because there is no sense of urgency to sign immediately for either side. Remember last season. It took plenty of time before these guys signed.

 

Expect signings to really start next week and then both sides will figure out that they have to start getting final figures out there before they get left in the dust. The Brewers fall in this category. They NEED another 3/4 starter.

[Invader3K]

bobskube, good to see you around here again. Any insight as to who the Crew may actually be targeting?