Melvin wants 2 starters

[brewmann04]

I don't see where Doug can work a trade unless he includes Gamel or Salome and right now he doing the right thing keeping both players.

[endaround]

The kicker to me is that Hart is a significantly better hitter than Cabrera, who isn't really that much better of a fielder than Corey (at least, not enough to offset the bat imo). So what would this have looked like from the Brewers' perspective? Hart+Bucci/Heckathorn? Hart+Bucci+Heckathorn? It seems Melvin wanted the certainty of having his 'big' newly-acquired SP around for more than just 2010.

 

I half wonder if the Braves felt forced to trade Vasquez they were going to make sure it was out of the NL.

[nate82]

I wonder what it would take for the Brewers to get Gaudin from the Yankees? It shouldn't take too much to get Gaudin from the Yankees. Gaudin will only make about $3-4m next season and he will only be 27 years old heading into next season. Probably would be a good #4 or #5 starter in the NL. He did have a FIP of 4.16 pitching for the Yankees and the Padres last year.

[Ennder]

Is Corey Hart a significantly better hitter than Cabrera though? Cabrera was as good in 2009 as Hart was in 2009 or 2008 or 2006. Cabrera's 2006 and 2007 were almost as good as all of those years for Hart as well and he did his in the AL. So we have a career year for Hart and an off year for Cabrera that is separating them so far, Cabrera is a better fielder as well. I don't think the gap in those two players is nearly as large as people think it is.

[PilprinBuddha]

I wonder how much $ we have left. Do we have 5mil? If we do, I'd think that there is a vet who would take that for one year.

 

I agree that to make a trade it will cost us Gamel or Salome. If we like Lucroy...why not include Salome? Does Gamel have a position?

[brewmann04]

I think the rotation will be what you see unless Melvin finds a cheap bargin in Feb.

[Kelbysdaddy]

texas is still looking for a rh bat, how about hart for mccarthy? he's still young and had a killer k rate in the minors. he still hasnt reached full potential in the majors, isnt that the kind of trade we should be gunning for? or maybe talk to the padres about clayton richard or aaron poreda. both seem big league ready. i think they were looking for an outfielder. it doesnt really look like they have a spot for at least one of them and they have good depth for pitchers in the minors.

[brewerfan82]

From Tom Haudricourt's blog:

 

FoxSports' Ken Rosenthal assesses the remaining free agent market in his online column today. When he gets to the triumverate of Jon Garland/Doug Davis/Jarrod Washburn, Rosenthal says the Brewers "almost certainly" will sign one of the three.

 

Here's a quick reference for these players and our current projected starters.

 Three year splits (as a starter) / 2010 CHONE Projections ERA IP SO AVG WHIP vs.L vs.R Age Doug Davis 4.22 542.0 402 .276 1.54 .795 .774 34 4.69 167.0 116 1.56 Jarrod Washburn 4.26 521.1 301 .266 1.34 .596 .805 35 4.63 167.0 98 1.40 Jon Garland 4.37 609.0 297 .285 1.41 .765 .778 30 4.60 186.0 94 1.43 ERA IP SO AVG WHIP vs.L vs.R Age Yovani Gallardo 3.59 310.2 317 .231 1.30 .675 .705 23 3.66 145.0 160 1.29 Randy Wolf 3.94 507.1 416 .250 1.41 .634 .730 33 4.23 164.0 129 1.35 Dave Bush 5.11 477.2 328 .271 1.32 .784 .800 30 4.78 160.0 112 1.38 Manny Parra 5.23 308.0 263 .290 1.68 .708 .821 27 4.81 159.0 129 1.53 Jeff Suppan 4.93 546.0 284 .301 1.57 .865 .817 35 5.43 169.0 86 1.61 

 

With two lefties already in the rotation, I'd prefer Garland of the three, however his OPS splits are pretty similar to Davis'. It's hard to argue that any of the three wouldn't be our third best pitcher and really solidify a currently shaky rotation.

 

Add a Mulder minor league signing and I'd feel pretty good going into the season.

[Hate those Rodents]

I think people are caring too much about having "too many lefties" in the rotation. While it might be better to have another righty (and might not), the point is that we need another above average starter. I think Davis or Washburn would both be an upgrade over Suppan, and thus would love either one if the price is right (and it is looking more and more likely that it will be).

[craigharmann]

Garland please.

[NievesNoNO]

Davis scares me with his high WHIP and declining ability to strike guys out. I think Washburn ends up signing late in the month for a reasonable price. Garland would be alright too. Gallardo, Wolf, Washburn/Garland, Parra, and Bush is no all-star rotation, but is certainly an upgrade. If they can just get to league average we'd be in a prime position for a play-off spot.

[Ennder]

I like Garland the least of the three largely because he'll probably want 3 years. Davis and Washburn could probably be had for 2 years. I look at Garland and just think... Jeff Suppan Jr. He is younger so he is better but I don't want the 33 year old version of Garland on this team.

[reillymcshane]

if you can get any of them shorter term - 1-2 years - and not too much - i'm good with it. None of them excite me - I see them as 4.5 era type guys - #4 starter at best. I guess I like Garland the best - more consistently mediocre than the others, younger. Again, none of them thrill me at a high cost.

[colbyjack]

Given the way the offseason is going, bargain-bin starters such as these three may not require a multi-year commitment to sign, and may be more inclined to sign a 1-year deal hoping for a more fruitful market next year. A Looper-esque type of contract seems possible with all three of them.

 

I hope there is some substance to this, as I think everyone would feel a lot better about the team's chances with another proven starter aboard.

[MNBrew]

I hope there is some substance to this, as I think everyone would feel a lot better about the team's chances with another proven starter aboard.

....because even if what some of them have proven isn't much above average, even that degree of achievement would still amount to a major upgrade over what last year's rotation outside of Gallardo accomplished.

[TheCrew07]

There is a strong possibility I'm going to shatter my keyboard at some point this off season.

 

That is all.

[Klements Bratwurst]

For the right money/years, I like it. It will solidify the rotation certainly especially adding Mulder as some have said. I also like it because then we don't have to trade Corey Hart or someone else and blow another hole in the team. The Brewers need guys like Hart to bounce back and surprise us all as he turns into a poor man's Jason Werth. If you trade Hart with his current value not being at its high point you might not do much better than the Davis/Garland/Washburn choice that we might have now and then all you have left is Braun/Gomez/Gerut and maybe an untested Gamel for the outfield. I would roll the dice and sign one of the three at the right amount/years and keep Hart.

[JohnBriggs12]

I like Garland the least of the three largely because he'll probably want 3 years. Davis and Washburn could probably be had for 2 years. I look at Garland and just think... Jeff Suppan Jr. He is younger so he is better but I don't want the 33 year old version of Garland on this team.

Everyone's the second coming of Suppan to you Ennder.

 

Let's compare WHIPS for the last 5 seasons for Garland and Suppan:

 

Suppan: 1.38. 1.45, 1.50, 1.54, 1.69

 

Garland: 1.17, 1.36, 1.32, 1.51, 1.40

 

The average of Suppan's 5 seasons is 1.51 which equals Garland's worst season. I might add Garland spent 4 of those 5 years in the AL where the pitcher doesn't bat.

 

As for stuff, Garland has lost some zip off his fastball from his early days with the Sox. He use to throw 92-94 back with the Sox in 04 and 05 with a hard slider. Now he works 89-91 mostly but he can still sink it and cut it. But that is still better than the 85-87 that Suppan musters these days. Garland also gets deeper in games than Suppan, having averaged 208 innings compared to 186 for Suppan over the past 5 seasons.

[Ennder]

Everyone's the second coming of Suppan to you Ennder

 

Nope, only low K guys who aren't extreme groundballers which fits Garland and Suppan. I acknowledged that Garland is younger thus better but we are talking about the next 3 years of Garland here.

 

Garland age 26-29. 129 GS, 820.1 IP, 1.40 WHIP, 409 K, 218 BB, 91 HR, 4.41 ERA

Suppan age 26-29. 129 GS, 818.1 IP, 1.37 WHIP, 449 K, 258 BB, 106 HR, 4.52 ERA

 

That is about as comparable of pitcher as you are going to find in baseball over a 3 year stretch. I don't think Garland is an upgrade over Washburn or Davis and he is younger and probably wants a longer contract. His career 4.42 ERA probably sums up his talent level pretty well. He'd be an upgrade over Suppan and probably Parra. I'd put him equal to a healthy Dave Bush which we don't know if he is healthy or not. He certainly would be a fine depth move.

 

The funny thing is people are complaining about these 3 when they are as good as any other pitcher on the market at this point. I would much rather sign any of these 3 than overpay Piniero. It is probably a wash between signing one of these and going with a Sheets/Bedard/Smoltz heavy risk guy. Marquis wasn't likely an upgrade over those 3 either. Lackey, Wolf and Harden were the 3 pitchers a cut above the rest and we got 1 of the 3.

[yoshii8]

I'd be ok w/ any of the three, but I'm hoping for Jarrod Washburn. He has the most recent success, and maybe a move to the NL and his home state will help improve his stats. He also stated recently that he would be willing to accept a one year deal.

[Invader3K]

If they can get Washburn on a one year deal, that would not be a bad deal at all. I would think they'd have to overpay to get him on only one year, though.

[Tbadder]

I think it's best not to tie up anymore money. The Brewers aren't really going to be contenders and I can't see them becoming a contender if they add one more solid #4 pitcher. Sure Wolf makes them better in the starting rotation, but offensively we should be worse at 3rd, SS, 2nd, CF and probably no better at RF, LF, 1st and improved only slightly at C. That's why if they are going to spend money, which again I don't want them to do, I'd go for the high reward high risk guys. A #1 or #2 pitcher might make them an outlier for the playoffs but no amount of Washburn, Davis, or Garland is going to improve them enough.

[Ennder]

The division is pretty weak this year, no reason we can't sneak into the playoffs with 1 more solid starter. The Cardinals won't match last year unless everything breaks their way again, the Cubs got another year older on an already old team.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd sign any of the three on a one year deal with a mutual option for a second year like Looper got last year. I wouldn't give multiple years to any of them. I'd go to about $6-$7 million. My order of preference would be Garland, Washburn, Davis. I'd still prefer the team reconcile with Sheets, but I digress.

[Tbadder]

I do agree that is the one chance the Brewers have--a real weak division. The signing of Holiday by the Cards should change that, but we can hope. Good call.