Melvin wants 2 starters

[nate82]

In Haudricourt's blog today he had this,

"It will be very active. By signing Trevor Hoffman, that was a big early splash for us. To attract free agent starting pitchers, they always want to know who is the closer.

"I'm looking forward to it. It's a challenge."

ALERT:

On trading either Ryan Braun or Prince Fielder:

"I don't see that happening."

on whether Jeff Suppan is guaranteed spot in the rotation by virtue of $12.5 million salary:

"I don't think there will be many guarantees on who is in the rotation. I think we have to make it more competitive (for spots)."

"Our goal is probably to get two starting pitchers."

So DM wants to get two starting pitchers and Suppan is not guaranteed a spot in the rotation. Also I believe you can rule out trading Fielder or Braun for pitching or for anything for that matter. I think DM believes he will not be able to get the return he would like for Fielder or Braun never mind the fans expectations for what they would think would be a good haul for either Braun or Fielder.

 

So who will DM be targeting? At the top of the list for free agency you have Lackey, Harden, Webb (possibly), Hudson (unlikely with the way Atlanta is thinking), Piniero (no thanks), Davis, Sheets, Escobar, and the rest are just not that great. With Lackey it will all depend on how much the Mets, Angels, and a mystery team would be willing to pay for Lackey. I think the Brewers could come in and get Lackey but at what cost?

 

For the trade front you have Lowe, Vazquez, Halladay, Nolasco, Johnson, Sanchez, and there others but those are the big names that are out there. I think you could cross off Lowe (too expensive if the Brewers sign a FA pitcher), Halladay, Nolasco, and Sanchez from the list. Which leaves you with Johnson and Vazquez both of whom would cost a lot in terms of prospects and money (Vazquez).

 

So if you figure one pitcher from free agency that assumes McClung and Looper are not resigned along with Kendall and Cameron. That means the Brewers would have about $15m to bring in a new pitcher from free agency. If the Brewers could get Lackey on a $15m a year deal (I highly doubt it) or sign a pitcher like Harden, Sheets, Escobar, or Webb to a 1-year deal around $8-12m then Melvin could go and get Lowe. I would assume that Lowe would probably cost Gamel and not much more remember Lowe is owed $15m per year over the next 3 years so you have to take that into consideration Atlanta will not be getting a lot in terms of talent unless they eat some of that contract.

 

Now Lowe may not even want to come to Milwaukee. He doesn't have a no trade clause though so that is a plus. In order for Atlanta to get Gamel and a minor prospect they would have to eat some of the contract owed to Lowe. If Atlanta did a straight up deal it would more than likely include McGehee than it would include Gamel though. McGehee, Green, plus another player would be close to what would be offered there and that would be about fair for both sides if Atlanta won't be eating part of Lowe's salary that is.

 

This is all before taking into account Hardy gets traded and/or Hart also gets traded.

[yoshii8]

I would not give up Gamel to get Lowe, if we are trading Gamel I think we could do a lot better, maybe one of the big chips in a Halladay or Josh Johnson deal.

 

Kelvin Escobar hasn't pitched in the last 2 seasons, there is no way he is getting 8-12 million. Although I would love to see DM take a chance on one of the guys coming back on an incentive laden deal, either Sheets, Webb, Bedard, Escobar or Duchscherer.

 

I believe we will get at least one pitcher through a trade of Hardy/Hart. I also think we will sign one mid-tier free agent, I would like to see that guy be John Smoltz, but think it will be more along the lines of Doug Davis.

[strawbossisevil]

I'd be all for signing Webb and Bedard to one year incentive laden deals (perhaps with team options for a second year). We could then use our trading chips (Hardy, McGehee or Gamel) to land pitching prospects that we can add to those already within our system (ones who are a year or two away from being in the majors). The hope being that in a year or two, we can fill in our rotation with prospects. I know that is a somewhat risky move bringing in two recently injured pitchers, but I think the upside of the moves would make it worth it. Hopefully add a more effective Parra and Bush and that makes for a very competent rotation with Suppan serving as a solid option as a 6th starter/long reliever.

[fallingleaves]

I hope Sheets is back in 2010 with another outside option. How serious is Webb's injury?

[Invader3K]

Sheets could be a good option. After having been absent from baseball for a full season, it should not take a ton to get him. Give him an incentive laden deal, assuming he is healthy enough to pitch by Opening Day.

 

The other pitcher (assuming two), will probably be by trade. The Brewers won't be able to win the bidding war for Lackey, and the other FA options below him are not that tantalizing. I think a deal with Atlanta or possibly Baltimore could make a lot of sense.

[fleehaw]

The Brewers should be able to address their need for SP without signing a FA pitcher. FA SP is not the best investment for a small market club.

 

For example

Hart to the Braves for Kawakami

Hardy to the Twins/Orioles for Blackburn/Guthrie

 

Either Kawakami or Blackburn would easily have been the Brewers 2nd best pitcher this year. They're not necessarily world-beaters, but they are solid and come at a very reasonable cost.

 

A buy-low guy that I wouldn't mind as long as he has options left is Andy Sonnestine. He's basically a young Suppan without the $12M price tag. He'd be a pretty decent #6 SP waiting in AAA. Sonnestine and Fernando Perez for a deal built around Salome would be just fine by me.

[Never Outhustled]

I agree with fleehaw, free agency is something we should avoid.

 

We should not expect to be able to pick up a pitcher coming off injury cheap. Last offseason, a 41 year old John Smoltz, after missing the last 3rd of the 2008 season with a shoulder injury so severe that he wouldn't be ready for the start of the 2009 season, got $5.5 million guaranteed.

 

If thats what Smoltz got, Bedard, Webb, and others will get even more. Those won't be wise investments.

[TooLiveBrew]

So DM wants to get two starting pitchers and Suppan is not guaranteed a spot in the rotation.

 

Allelujah! Oh man, is that part about Suppan great to read. I guess we'll really get to see whether or not Melvin is able to identify the 'right' kind of pitching this offseason. I agree with those that have predicted one trade (which imo will be big) & one FA pickup like Duscherer or Davis, etc.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I predict that DM gets 2 pitchers, one that will be a letdown, and Suppan will, in fact, be in the opening day rotation. Just preparing everyone for the letdown! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

[twobrewers]

I wonder how much Liriano would cost from the Twins.

 

He has really struggled since returning from his surgery. (Tommy John, I believe) He still has a decent K rate.

 

He could be a cheap "buy low" type pitcher.

[sheetskout]

I still say trying to pry Paul Maholm away from the PIrates makes sense. They need a young shortstop and the value is about equal. We may have to offer an additional type-b prospect but he has upside.

[jjfanec]

I wonder how much Liriano would cost from the Twins.

 

He has really struggled since returning from his surgery. (Tommy John, I believe) He still has a decent K rate.

 

He could be a cheap "buy low" type pitcher.

I would steer clear of Liriano. He is afraid to throw his slider now and batters wait for it. His walk rates have increases as have the amounts of hits he gives up. All this while his strikeout rates have dropped. He did have Tommy John but he was back from that in 2008, but then got hurt again, missed most of that season. You would probably be able to buy low, but I just don't see a lot of value in the post Tommy John Liriano. Without his slider being as effective, hitters wait for his fastball and tee off on it. He also has a big inury risk. His worsening numbers, combined with injury concers make me wonder what he is really worth and if he is a guy this team can count on. I would not want him to be one of the two starters we bring in.

[fondybrewfan]

My ideal scenario would be to bring Sheets back, trade for a #3 type with Hardy/Gamel/Hart as trade bait and bring in one of Duchsherer, Escobar, Webb, Smoltz, or Bedard. None of these players would command much guaranteed money or anything more than 2 years. We would be picking up 3 starters but my last group would probably have to earn a spot in spring training.

 

Gallardo

Sheets

#3 acquired in trade with Gamel/Hardy/Hart/Etc as trade bait

Bush

Duchsherer, Escobar, Webb, Smoltz, Bedard

 

Assuming we get lucky and both Sheets and our #5 turn out to be good investments that is definitely a playoff worthy rotation w/o having to spend a huge amount of money. I would keep Parra & Narveson down in AAA is injury reserves. Suppan to the bullpen, if he can't do the job there Melvin should have no hesitation to just release the guy since it is the last year of his contract. Looper should be gone. In 2010 we should theoretically have more AAA pitching depth to work with. Mike Jones should be up there and there will be a pretty good crop at AA if Melvin wanted to go that route to fill a hole in the MLB rotation.

[chuckiehacks]

I've heard several reports (MLBTR, Stark) that point to Rich Harden getting nothing other than 1-2 year offers. He certainly has his flaws, but if when he's on, he's probably better than any other SP on the FA market. For 1/10 with Doug's new toy (the mutual option), I'd take that risk.

[jjfanec]

For the injury concern guys a one year for Harden would be okay. If we could trade for a #2 or 3 type guy and then get Harden, the rotation would look alright with Yo, Bush, guy in trade, Harden, and Parra, Suppan, etc. Suppan and Narveson could give us depth for when Harden has to go on the DL. Josh Butler could get a year at AAA to see what we have in him.

 

I worry about Harden staying healthy, but I also worry about Bedard, Sheets and some of the other FA targets. If Sheets was healthy I would probably rather have him than Harden because he will be cheaper.

[JohnBriggs12]

Most of you need to listen to what Melvin's been talking about for months.

 

He's lamenting the lack of innings from his starters and he's lamenting the amount of HRs allowed.

 

That tells you where his focus is going to be in a FA pitcher. Forget guys like Harden. He was healthy all year and got 141 innings. He also allowed 23 HR.

 

Focus in on guys that keep the ball in the park and generally accumulate innings. Some of you think that's what they did earlier and the got Suppan. No, Suppan always was a 6 inning pitcher who gave up a lot of long balls. His value was that he didn't miss starts. Pineiro fits the bill for what they are looking for. He had 214 innings this year and allowed 11 HR. Pineiro is not Suppan. I repeat, Pineiro is not Suppan. Hudson is another ideal guy if he did become available. Penny's a longshot but he could be in the mix.

 

As for deals, I don't see a big name. Maybe Lowe if the Braves took Suppan back and agreed to pay $5 million for each year of his deal. I think you'll see a guy from a team with multiple needs (Brian Bannister comes to mind from the Royals), or a team like Texas that if they signed Sheets would have an extra guy to deal (Brandon McCarthy).

[giffted1]

Focus in on guys that keep the ball in the park and generally accumulate innings. Some of you think that's what they did earlier and the got Suppan. No, Suppan always was a 6 inning pitcher who gave up a lot of long balls. His value was that he didn't miss starts. Pineiro fits the bill for what they are looking for. He had 214 innings this year and allowed 11 HR. Pineiro is not Suppan. I repeat, Pineiro is not Suppan.

Pineiro is having a career year. Nearly all of his numbers this year deviate significantly from his stats in recent seasons and his career stats. This is his first year going over 200 innings since 2003. His HR/9 this year is .46 and over his career its been 1.0 (only .19 lower than Suppan). Etc, etc, etc. Pineiro's season screams fluke, and I'd want no part of him.

[dadofandrew]

Doug Davis has a lower HR/9 than Piniero, and has said he'd love to pitch in MIL again. I'd say both he and Washburn (especially now that his value is down) are far more likely than Joel. Both the lefties will probably get a 2 year deal as well.

[nate82]

Doug Davis has a lower HR/9 than Piniero, and has said he'd love to pitch in MIL again. I'd say both he and Washburn (especially now that his value is down) are far more likely than Joel. Both the lefties will probably get a 2 year deal as well.

No. If DM signs both Davis and Washburn our rotation wouldn't be any better than it was this year. Washburn is washed up and shouldn't be pitching in a hitters friendly ballpark just look what he did in Detroit compared to what he did in Seattle. Washburn should be pitching in a pitchers friendly park only and not for Milwaukee.

 

I could live with Davis if he was the FA signing and another player was brought in in a trade. If the Brewers could get Lowe and Davis I would be fine with that but I would rather go with the injury reconstruction rotation than going with Lowe and Davis that would cost a lot of resources for the Brewers.

 

I still believe a deal with Sheets could be done where Sheets could earn up to $15m in incentives with a base salary around $4-7m. Webb would be harder to get because he will be looking to get around what he would be getting if his option was picked up or more so you are looking at something around $8-10m for him which teams like the Dodgers, Angels, and even the Red Sox would be looking to take on not much of a risk for them with that kind of a contract for them. Webb would be a long shot to get for the Brewers I believe Escobar and Sheets are probably more likely than Webb and Lackey is probably even more likely than the Brewers getting Webb.

[vannzee]

So is Manny Parra not expected to be in the rotation next year? Does he have any trade value left?

 

Id say that Hardy for Guthrie from Baltimore or a deal for John Maine from the Mets or even Fausto Carmona from the Indians would be intresting.

[RockCoCougars]

Walk away from another St. Louis free agent pitcher. Make that run away. Piniero was Manny Parra bad pitching in a pitcher's park in Seattle..... I don't want to be giving good money to old guys like Washburn or Davis either.

 

If I'm Melvin, I work on a deal with Ben Sheets and work on a trade for another guy. In my opinion, there are plenty of pieces available for a team seeking offense/looking to cut costs. Hardy, Hart, possibly McGahee or Gamel and maybe even a prospect like Lawrie.

[Hate those Rodents]

Somewhat off topic but not really, it wouldn't be horrible to sign both Davis and Washburn to team friendly deals. Adding the two lefties might enable us to package Parra with something to get a third starter to help Gallardo at the top. Might be a lot more bang for our buck this way.

 

ETA - I know a lot of people area saying how Doug fixes the starting pitching this off-season could determine his fate in Milwaukee. If that is true, I am not sure I can see us focusing on an injured starting pitcher. Definitely not something where 10 million or more would be guaranteed over a year. Yes, Washburn and Davis would have their own issues. But at the right price, they are better than everyone save Yo and should enable us more ammo to trade and get Yo a counterpart at the top of the rotation.

[endaround]

Signing Washburn to any type of deal is horrible.

[nate82]

Yes, Washburn and Davis would have their own issues. But at the right price, they are better than everyone save Yo and should enable us more ammo to trade and get Yo a counterpart at the top of the rotation.

I'm sorry but this is not true at all. Washburn gave up 23 home runs this season while Davis gave up 25. Davis pitched in a pitchers friendly NL West what do you think will happen to those numbers when pitching in the hitter friendly parks in the NL Central? They will only go up from there. Now look at Washburn's K/9 it is only better than Suppan's and Looper's K/9. Only Davis put up a good K/9 but that still puts him 4th best on the team.

 

Adding both Davis and Washburn would be a lateral move at best. Washburn = left handed version of Suppan. Both Davis and Washburn's HR/9 will increase over what they had especially Washburn's. If any of the two the Brewers should sign it would be Davis and then another pitcher through a trade would be fine. Washburn is not going to come cheap either and I would not want to see Washburn pitching in a hitters friendly park.

 

Just say no to Cardinals FA pitchers and just say no to control pitchers who were pitching in pitcher friendly ball parks.

[Hate those Rodents]

Washburn was someone we were willing to trade quite a bit for just two months ago. To think there suddenly won't be interest in him at a hometown discount rate while giving up nothing in terms of talent is pretty ludicrous to me. Sure, it'd be nice to have a power arm. Sure it'd be nice to have a pitcher that gives up hardly any homeruns. The bottom line though is improving the rotation. If Doug and his scouts loved him in Seattle, his poor performance in a handful of starts for Detroit can not and should not prevent us from going after him at the right price. There is a good chance we can't get any of the "risk" pitchers (Sheets, Harden, Escobar, etc.). This might be the way to go. So many people on this board get so high and so low on pitchers, from Piniero to Wolf to Washburn to Sheets that it really is quite astounding to me. Sit back and let's see what happens.