End of Season Press Conference

[dadofandrew]

That's pretty much how FIP works...many pitchers beat it every year. It's a very odd stat...no one bothers figuring out defense independent hitting, so I by far prefer, you know, using the results. As I stated, there's little doubt Davis and Washburn improve the staff, a whole rotation of them and the Crew wins 90 games. Again, if you do not want SP's with good numbers, that's your choice, but then it seems odd to wonder why they magically don't put up good numbers.

[JoeHova]

That's pretty much how FIP works...many pitchers beat it every year. It's a very odd stat...no one bothers figuring out defense independent hitting, so I by far prefer, you know, using the results. As I stated, there's little doubt Davis and Washburn improve the staff, a whole rotation of them and the Crew wins 90 games. Again, if you do not want SP's with good numbers, that's your choice, but then it seems odd to wonder why they magically don't put up good numbers.

Washburn didn't really beat his FIP until this year.

 

year/ERA/ FIP:

 

2006: 4.67, 4.78

2007: 4.32, 4.77

2008: 4.69, 4.72

2009: 3.78, 4.58

 

Washburn is not a guy with good numbers or a good pitcher. He's mediocre. The reason he had a great ERA this year is because Franklin Gutierrez had one of the greatest defensive seasons by a centerfielder in baseball history and was flanked the whole year by guys who can play CF competently (Ichiro, Endy Chavez, Ryan Langerhans, Bill Hall). The Brewers have a pretty good defense but it is nothing at all like the defense the Mariners ran out there this season.

 

FIP is not everything, but when you are looking at a possible acquisition, it is important to take into account how much of a pitcher's success (or lack of success) was due to his defense. In Washburn's case this year, quite a bit of his success was due to the historically great defense behind him. A team which fails to take that into account will rue the decision to sign him, just as the Mariners did for the first 3 years of his deal with them.

[dadofandrew]

The first three years look pretty good to those of us who saw the Crew put up a 5+ ERA from the SP's, Joe.

 

I'm not looking for a Sabathia type. I'll take 4.25-4.50 happily and let them work with Yo. My gosh, 4 guys in that range and Yo might equal about a 4-4.20 rotation, that's gotta be top 4 in the NL.

 

EDIT: 6th or 7th, as COL had a 4.10 ERA by the SP's. The Brewers had a 5.37...lowering it to 4.20 and leaving the IP's the same would have resulted in 116 fewer runs scoring...11-12 wins, using the rule of 10. That's 91-92...I'll take that.

[Ennder]

if you do not want SP's with good numbers, that's your choice, but then it seems odd to wonder why they magically don't put up good numbers.

 

Suppan - 4.16, 3.57, 4.12 ERA the 3 years before joining Brewers.

Looper - 3.56, 4.94, 4.16 ERA the 3 years before joining Brewers

Bush - 4.41, 5.12, 4.18 ERA the 3 years before this season

Davis - 4.25, 4.32, 4.12 ERA the past 3 years

Washburn - 4.32, 4.69, 3.78 ERA the past 3 years

 

I don't really see how these guys are any different than the guys you think stink and need replacing. Trying to judge a pitcher by ERA is going to be futile most of the time. Doug Davis walks way too many guys to sustain his success long term. Washburn doesn't K enough guys and his a flyball pitcher so he isn't likely to show great success unless he has a great defense behind him and pitches in a pitchers park. These guys aren't really anything more than marginal upgrades over what we have, maybe 1 win each tops.

[dadofandrew]

I think you're proving variance exists. Some guys are going to have bad years every year. Davis HAS sustained success long-term, in my view, as he's made a bijillion dollars and has thrown 200+ innings most years. Now, could he come in and put up a 5 ERA...yep. He could also put up a 3.50 ERA...he'll probably be projected right about 4.25-4.40.

 

I'd also like to say I find the insistence Washburn's road ERA numbers are because he pitches in a pitcher's park. He's pitched better on the road, and I do not recall SEA having a great defensive OF the past 3 years. JW has managed a 3.83 ERA on the road since 2007. He's been undervalued for ages because he doesn't throw hard.

 

Sabathia is not returning to the Crew, and the free agent market has one solid pitcher without health issues...and I do not see Lackey ending up in MIL. Harden and Bedard are very good, but are both reminiscent of Sheets...buyer beware, you may get 170 frames, you might get 0-50 (which is true of all pitchers, but history does tend to repeat itself).

[Ennder]

Dunno, Washburn has put up a 4.36 ERA over his last 700ish IP.

Suppan has put up a 4.72 ERA over his last 700ish IP. He also put up a combined 3.95 his 3 years before we signed him and it was obvious from the peripherals that it wasn't for real.

Bush has put up a 4.86

Davis a 4.41 ERA.

 

Yeah they are upgrades but they sure are small ones. Washburn is the best of the bunch considering he did it in the AL. Davis wants a 3 year deal and just isn't worth it. I'd rather bring back a Looper for 1 year and sign one of those Bedard types, starting Parra in AAA as depth for when they get hurt. Seems to make more sense than making another Suppan style mistake by signing a mediocre aging SP who has peripherals that suggest his ERA isn't for real.

[LouisEly]

Generally speaking I'm with you Al - a 4.30-4.50ERA is a lot better than what Suppan/Looper gave them. The thing that scares me about Davis though is that he was the only guy who walked more people than Gallardo this year. Not sure I want both the #1 and #2 guys in walks in my rotation.

 

My bet is Hardy+prospects to BOS, or McGehee+prospects to FLA, for the starting pitching to replace Looper, and Narveson taking Suppan's role.