End of Season Press Conference

[mletto157]

Cameron averaged 2.92 chances per 9 innings this year. Adam Jones for the Orioles averaged 3.25 chances per 9. I'll compare these two because both are considered good CF'ers and both played with terrible pitching staffs. As important as CF defense is, I find it hard to believe those 3 chances a CF'er gets every 27 outs are more valuable than the 18-21 outs of a good starting pitcher.

 

I agree that the defense of a position player would not be more valuable than a good starting pitcher, but it's not as far off as you make it out to be. The approximate 3 chances per 9 IP is in reference to one game (every game) and that pitcher's 18-21 outs are in reference to one game (in every 5). A more reasonable evaluation would have those 3 chances/9IP be more like 15 chances/5 games compared to the starting pitchers 18 outs/5 games. Seems a lot more comparable now, hey? Not to mention that when you also add in the offense of said position player he absolutely is as valuable if not more valuable than that starting pitcher.

[pretendastronaut]

Wasn't there already a thread once about Cameron saying he'd be willing to take a cut to stay here or some such thing? Maybe the language was discount?

[hawing]

Wasn't there already a thread once about Cameron saying he'd be willing to take a cut to stay here or some such thing? Maybe the language was discount?

Yeah, some such thing, but he might define "discount" differently than the Brewers do. Since most players' salaries increase each year, he might mean he's willing to play for the same $, which is not technically a discount.

[FVBrewerFan]

I agree that the defense of a position player would not be more valuable than a good starting pitcher, but it's not as far off as you make it out to be. The approximate 3 chances per 9 IP is in reference to one game (every game) and that pitcher's 18-21 outs are in reference to one game (in every 5). A more reasonable evaluation would have those 3 chances/9IP be more like 15 chances/5 games compared to the starting pitchers 18 outs/5 games. Seems a lot more comparable now, hey? Not to mention that when you also add in the offense of said position player he absolutely is as valuable if not more valuable than that starting pitcher.

Yes, but you're not factoring in a very important component. I'm guessing 2.5 of those 3 chances per 9 innings are routine plays. In fact, I bet that number is even higher. So Cameron's "real" value over a lessor CF would be .5 chances per game.

 

At any rate, I would need a mountain of evidence to convince me Cameron is more valuable than a very good #3 starting pitcher. What often gets overlooked in these discussions is what it does to the morale of the team to have a solid SP. How it affects the entire rotation- and bullpen. For that matter, what it does to team's confidence and morale. If you have bad starting pitching, you're done. If you have a bad CF, there are 7 other postions that could poetially make up for it.

[Flood Pants]

How it affects the entire rotation- and bullpen. For that matter, what it does to team's confidence and morale. If you have bad starting pitching, you're done. If you have a bad CF, there are 7 other postions that could poetially make up for it.

The effect on the rest of the pitching staff is a very good point, as every quality inning from a starter is an inning that doesn't need to be covered by the bullpen. Cameron's defense also affects every pitcher. Interesting how all of these ripple effects work.

 

I wasn't entirely correct to compare Cameron to a single pitcher. Really, we need to compare the net effect of all additions and subtractions, as Cameron's loss could well be made up elsewhere.

 

I think we can probably all argue, though, that having Cameron on our team is a good thing that would be nice to continue.

[mletto157]

Plus all the players like having Cameron around; he's a good clubhouse guy. He'll be a good guy to have here to make other free agents want to come here too.

 

Though I think some are still underestimating the value of a good defensive CF. Especially considering who we have in the corners. I think the loss of Cameron's defense would be felt more than some might realize.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Letting Kendall go can only help. Even if our minor league guys are a year away, they can't be any worse than Kendall at the plate. Cam is another story. Cam in CF and moving Braun out of the infield were by far the biggest contributors to a much better defense the last two seasons. Our starting pitching got killed in 2007 from the extra 8-10 pitches a game with all the errors they were piling up. The collateral damage of replacing Cam in CF with Gerut would be meaningful on an already subpar pitching staff. If we can get him for a reasonable price for a year or two until the youngsters are ready, I'd do it. There are other ways to come up with pitching...trading 2/3 between JJ, Hart and McGahee and signing a couple lower priced FAs has to be an upgrade.

[dadofandrew]

If Cameron did save 20 runs over the average CF, he made each pitcher slightly better, no doubt.

 

However, if they sign someone who projects to a 4 ERA, and they take the place of someone projected to have a 5 ERA, that's 22.2 runs saved, over 200 innings. Considering Mike is not a youngster, and both his offensive and defensive output is projected to fall based on age alone, I'd go with a cheaper replacement myself.

 

I like Mike, and would be happy if he said he'd be back for $4M, probably even $6M. My guess is, he'd be willing to take 2y/$20M rather than the $12M he'd get in arby.

[joepepsi]

Good discussion about Cameron. I think everyone agrees he's an asset to the team and would take him back if the payroll could afford it. I tend to agree with Invader-he's a luxury this team probably can't afford next year.

 

He's a great CF'er and one of my favorite players on the team, but I have a hard time believing any CF'er could save 20 runs a year over the average CF'er. It seems something like that would show up in a noticeable way for every team he's played.

[TooLiveBrew]

That is of course assuming that Cameron at age 37 will not see a drop in his production

 

You made this exact same argument last season. It was wrong then, and it's wrong now. Cameron is not your typical 37-yo ballplayer, and any Brewers fan can see that.

 

 

However, if they sign someone who projects to a 4 ERA, and they take the place of someone projected to have a 5 ERA, that's 22.2 runs saved, over 200 innings.

And once again the problem is you can't sign this 4 ERA pitcher to a one or two year deal.

[dadofandrew]

I think Washburn and Davis might well sign 1 or 2 year deals. Not sure if they project to a 4 ERA, but they're somewhere in that range. Jarrod is almost as old as Mike, and Doug is mid 30's as well.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ditching Mike Cameron to make way for Doug Davis or Jarrod Washburn is definitely not the direction I want to see from Melvin this offseason.

[LouisEly]

Thanks for doing the computations on runs saved by a better ERA Al. And Suppan was worse than a 5 ERA, so they could save 20 runs just by plugging in a pitcher who can give them a 4.30-4.50 ERA.

 

As far as signing a pitcher to a one-year deal, well, no good pitcher is going to sign for a one-year deal. But it will be 2-3 years before the legit pitching prospects in the minors arrive so I wouldn't be surprised if they sign a free agent pitcher to a 2-3 year deal. With the economy the way it is, players are going for the shorter contracts with higher per-year salaries than longer deals at lower per-year salaries; part of this is that teams are evaluating the risk of longer-term contracts and reducing the per-year amounts on longer deals. The question is not what Cam's $10M can buy you for one year; it is what can 2yrs/$20M or 3yrs/$30M buy? I think in this market, judging by what players signed for last offseason, at least a 4.00 ERA starter.

 

Yes, but you're not factoring in a very important component. I'm guessing 2.5 of those 3 chances per 9 innings are routine plays. In fact, I bet that number is even higher.

 

Good point FV, and I'll take it a step further. Most hitters are right-handed, and when a hitter pulls the ball it gets hit hard and gets to it's destination very fast. (There's a reason why 3B is called "the hot corner"; once while playing it I almost got knocked over backwards by a screamer right at my head.) There are fewer left-hand hitters, but when they pull the ball it is to RF. The harder the ball is hit the less time it takes to get to where it lands, and the less chance that the fielder will catch it. Thus why I think UZR is biased against left-fielders and biased towards CFs; granted, LFs are generally the worst fielders overall but due to righties pulling the ball they have the least amount of time to get to it to catch it. Where I'm going with this is if you watched a lot of baseball games and calculated the average time that a ball was in the air to LF or RF versus CF, I would be willing to bet that it would be a significant difference. You see very few screamers up the middle to CF; centerfielders have a lot more time to get under the ball and catch it because it is in the air longer. Thus I don't think that a good CF saves as many runs as UZR and Fangraphs thinks they do. (Any system that has Nyjer Morgan as being more valuable overall than Ryan Braun is flawed.)

 

As for Braun, remember, he never played OF until two years ago. It's not like he played OF in the minors or college or high school and is just bad. He's inexperienced, but athletic; I think he will improve significantly each year with experience. Once he gets a few years of experience playing the OF I think he's athletic enough to play CF, but not for at least 3-4 years.

 

Personally I think they can win on both fronts; I think Narveson can give them the 4.50 ERA and the 20 run improvement over Suppan at league minimum salary, thus freeing up the cash for Cameron. Parra gets his shoulder cleaned up and gives you at least a 4.50 ERA, and throw out Bush's injury starts and he's a 4.50 ERA. Between those three that has to be at least 50 runs saved over this year. I think the other starter they acquire is via trade; add in a 4.00ERA starter via trade and it's up to 65 runs. Narveson is the "free agent" guy. They get the pitching improvement without the increase in salary and can keep Cameron. Dump Kendall and Looper and save $10M there; trade Hardy and it's up to $14M.

[dadofandrew]

I'm not sure what folks are expecting from a FA pitcher if Davis or Washburn are not acceptable. Both have proven they are above average SP's and have solid career numbers. And, as a bonus, they are not 27-28, so they may well sign a 2 year deal with a vested option for year 3. If they were in their prime, we'd be looking at CC money/length, or more likely, 75% of each. 5 pitchers like Davis/Washburn, and the Brewers are in the playoffs...I've done the math. Arizona is not an easy place to pitch, and Washburn's numbers on the road speak for themselves.

 

One of those two and young SP with some upside for JJ, that's a huge upgrade from '09.

[logan82]

Thus why I think UZR is biased against left-fielders and biased towards CFs

 

UZR basically measures how many plays a player makes compared to other players at their position. You either make more plays than average and are above average, make the same plays as the average player and are average or make fewer plays than the average fielder and are below average. If anything UZR makes left fielders look better than they actually are because the bar is so low for the average fielder.

[NievesNoNO]

dadofandrew[/b]]I'm not sure what folks are expecting from a FA pitcher if Davis or Washburn are not acceptable. Both have proven they are above average SP's and have solid career numbers. And, as a bonus, they are not 27-28, so they may well sign a 2 year deal with a vested option for year 3. If they were in their prime, we'd be looking at CC money/length, or more likely, 75% of each. 5 pitchers like Davis/Washburn, and the Brewers are in the playoffs...I've done the math. Arizona is not an easy place to pitch, and Washburn's numbers on the road speak for themselves.

 

One of those two and young SP with some upside for JJ, that's a huge upgrade from '09.

I'll give you Washburn, he's had a solid career. Davis is not good. We may as well keep Looper as they put up similar numbers. I'd compare Washburn to Dave Bush. So, as long as we're not non-tendering Bush to free up money for Washburn then it sounds all right to me. I know you didn't say that, I'm just thinking as I type. Yo, Washburn, Parra, Bush, and whoever from a Hardy trade seems like an all right rotation. Enough for the play-offs, I'm not sure, but at least better (although that isn't too difficult).

[dadofandrew]

Bush's health is a question mark, and he'll make $5-6M in arby, if offered. Washburn's road ERA the past three years is 3.83, I don't recall Dave coming close to those numbers. I can't compare the two, except to say Washburn is better in the past. Davis has a 4.22 ERA since '07, pitching half his games in the hitter's paradise of Arizona. He's not dominant, but he's very solid.

[JoeHova]

What does Washburn's road ERA have to do with anything when his home park over most of the past 3 years is one of the best parks for a flyball pitcher in the majors? That seems misleading. ZIPS (Szym works fast) has Washburn projected to a 4.59 ERA for 2010. I'd rather stay away from yet another guy who projects to have an ERA near 5. Either spend some money or some prospects to get a relatively young guy that at least has a chance to be something better than league average. I can't believe I'm saying this, but if they are actually thinking of trying to get Washburn, I'd rather they just kept Looper because he'd only be on a 1 year deal. That said, the Washburn acquisition is probably a fait accompli because he's from Wisconsin and Melvin and Attanasio will think that fact will deflect attention away from how crappy he is.

[joepepsi]

Thus why I think UZR is biased against left-fielders and biased towards CFs

 

UZR basically measures how many plays a player makes compared to other players at their position. You either make more plays than average and are above average, make the same plays as the average player and are average or make fewer plays than the average fielder and are below average. If anything UZR makes left fielders look better than they actually are because the bar is so low for the average fielder.

If that's all UZR is then all the fielders from bad teams, or teams with bad pitching will score better than teams who's pitchers have high strikeout rates.

 

Letting Cameron, Kendall, Looper, and Hardy go frees up $25+ million from the 2009 payroll. After 2010 Suppan and Hall will be off the books and free up another $20 million. After 2011 Prince will most likely be gone; probably Hart will be by then as well. The team can afford a multi year deal to a good pitcher. 2009 payroll was too high and it limited what Doug could do last winter. He can have more flexibility going forward.

[Ennder]

If that's all UZR is then all the fielders from bad teams, or teams with bad pitching will score better than teams who's pitchers have high strikeout rates

 

It is based on a ratio of outs vs attempts so this wouldn't hold true.

[logan82]

When a CF misses a ball on the outside of their range it often will go for an extra base hit. The extra outs are worth quite a bit in CF.

[dadofandrew]

Joe, I think you answered your own questin. Many seem to think Washburn's numbers are a result of Safeco, so I keep using road ERA, which seems to make that argument moot.

[Ennder]

I think signing Davis would be as bad as the Suppan deal. Both are guys with mediocre peripherals who displayed a decent 3 year average in ERA and are getting old. It won't surprise me one bit if Davis has an ERA up around 5 next season.

 

Washburn is a step above both but not crazy about him either.

[JoeHova]

Joe, I think you answered your own questin. Many seem to think Washburn's numbers are a result of Safeco, so I keep using road ERA, which seems to make that argument moot.

Well, I can't find his 3 year (2007-2009) splits and I don't feel like doing them by hand, but his overall ERA over that period has been somewhat higher than 3.83, which is why listing that stat seems misleading.

 

Since Washburn joined the Mariners, his FIPs have been:

 

2006: 4.78

2007: 4.77

2008: 4.72

2009: 4.58

 

He's a tremendously consistent pitcher who got a bit lucky this year (with great defense behind him in Seattle and a fluky lack of home runs, which quickly caught up to him in Detroit) and will likely get a significant contract from some foolish team.

 

I don't see him as being a better investment than Suppan, and he would arguably be a worse one because he's 35 whereas Suppan was 32 and Suppan's previous 4 seasons were slightly better (by both ERA and FIP) than Washburn's previous 4.

[bklynbrewcrew]

If Melvins idea of improving the pitching staff includes the likes of Davis and Washburn he might as well start looking for a new job becuase next season will be his last as Brewers GM.