End of Season Press Conference

[TooLiveBrew]

He had the opportunity to have a "full" surgery that would have kept him out for most of next year, but he chose to just get it cleaned up.

 

So this sounds like it will be an ongoing issue. Wonderful.

Just another reason to trade the healthier, more athletic, younger, higher-ceiling Gamel! Oh, wait...

[logan82]

He had the opportunity to have a "full" surgery that would have kept him out for most of next year, but he chose to just get it cleaned up.

 

So this sounds like it will be an ongoing issue. Wonderful.

Just another reason to trade the healthier, more athletic, younger, higher-ceiling Gamel! Oh, wait...

No kidding. I can see how it would make a lot of sense from McGehee's standpoint to not get the full surgery done. He has a good chance at being on a big league roster as a starter somewhere next year(please not for us). I really hate that this came out as it will probably drive down his trade value.

[Team Canada]

A line by line recap is available at Ramblings. I have predicted once a week since July they will add a SP as an FA and one via trade, and that sounds exactly like the plan.

Al, you say that like you were the only one that realized pitching was a problem.

[Ennder]

It isn't about pitching being the problem, it is about what Melvin will do about it.

 

He could easily bring back the same rotation and expect the ERA to drop almost a full run given how they pitched and the injuries etc. A lot of people in other threads have suggested they think that is what he'll end up doing.

 

I like any plan that puts Parra back in AAA to become part of our 'depth' personally. I'm against any plan that suggests releasing Bush given his price. What they do with Looper I could care less about, if they can afford a replacement great, if not he is about as good as most of the crappy FA we are likely to get.

[MJLiverock]

It isn't about pitching being the problem, it is about what Melvin will do about it.

 

He could easily bring back the same rotation and expect the ERA to drop almost a full run given how they pitched and the injuries etc. A lot of people in other threads have suggested they think that is what he'll end up doing.

I think that will would be the death knell of Melvin as GM. Could everyone miraculously have turn it around and have career years, sure but how likely is it? Or how likely would a GM want to bet his job on it? Going into the 2009 season the same thing was tossed around - - the pitching will be fine, Gallardo will equal Sheets, Parra will progress to a solid #2 or #3, Bush will be back to 2006 form, Supe and Loop will be league average and so on.

 

Now, Supe and Loop are another year older and another year of throwing BP for hitters has past. Parra still hasn't figured out how to throw strikes and Bush's 2006 promise is yet another year futher away. Gallardo had a great "rookie" year but still needs to be more economical but he is really the only one I would count on. Going into a season with 80% of the rotation as questionable or hoping they suddenly reverse course is not a recipe for success.

[brewizard]

"Our evaluation of our pitching didn't go as planned," said Melvin, whose club finished 80-82 a year after making the playoffs for the first time in 26 seasons. "I take responsibility for that."

 

I feel like an abused spouse being lured back to an abusive husband!!

[CheezWizHed]

I feel like an abused spouse being lured back to an abusive husband!!

I understand what you are trying to say, but that is a terrible analogy. For several reasons.

[joepepsi]

I like any plan that puts Parra back in AAA to become part of our 'depth' personally. I'm against any plan that suggests releasing Bush given his price. What they do with Looper I could care less about, if they can afford a replacement great, if not he is about as good as most of the crappy FA we are likely to get.

I agree with all of this. They'll go hard after a Marquis-type and try and get a couple pitchers for Hardy like a major league McClung type and a nearly major league ready talented minor leaguer.

[hawing]

Dennis Punzel of Madison's Capital Times/Wisconsin State Journal amalgam turned in this report on the press conference.

 

My favorite quote is at the end, regarding what the Brewers could do with Fielder:

 

Melvin thought about his dilemma Tuesday night as he watched an ESPN program about the impact that trading away Wayne Gretzky had on the Edmonton Oilers.

"I was watching that and I was thinking, 'Is that what we're going to be facing with Prince?' I looked at the city of Edmonton and how they were burning statues of the owner. They might crush my bobble head (if I traded Fielder)."

[FVBrewerFan]

I understand the strategy of picking up one SP via trade, one via FA. I just see lots of posts in various areas about getting a SP for JJ Hardy. What's the point in that? I mena, how good of a SP will someone give up for JJ Hardy? Another Looper/Suppan/Bush/McClung type. That's not good enough anymore, and I think Melvin knows it.

 

They need to pull off a bloclbuster, and I think that could include anyone other than Braun, Fielder, Gallardo, or Escobar. Won't surprise me if he pulls off a Hardy/Gamel/Parra/Bush for Greinke...something like that.

 

If Melvin learned anything this year, it's that you can't go with one good SP and a bunch of #4/5 types hoping it works out. Sometimes it does, but it usually ends the way it did this year.

[trwi7]

Won't surprise me if he pulls off a Hardy/Gamel/Parra/Bush for Greinke...something like that.

That would definitely surprise me. I know Dayton Moore isn't a good GM, but I can't think he's that bad to settle on that deal when there's absolutely no reason to.

[Ennder]

I just see lots of posts in various areas about getting a SP for JJ Hardy. What's the point in that? I mena, how good of a SP will someone give up for JJ Hardy? Another Looper/Suppan/Bush/McClung type.

 

You are significantly underrating Hardy's trade value here. I personally think we should get a AA or AAA pitcher for him though, instead of going for an established guy.

[trwi7]

You are significantly underrating Hardy's trade value here. I personally think we should get a AA or AAA pitcher for him though, instead of going for an established guy.

 

I agree. If the AA or AAA guy projects better than the MLB starter that would be offered, I'd prefer it if we take the AA or AAA guy.

[LouisEly]

Lots of things going on here:

 

Sounds like Ricky is in line for 2nd base still. But then he says "may have to sacrifice some offense to get some pitching."

 

Does this mean having to sacrifice Cameron to free up his $10M to sign a free agent SP?

 

I mean, how good of a SP will someone give up for JJ Hardy?

 

If you package him with two of Peralta, Anundsen, Rivas, and Merklinger, probably a decent one. They will have a ton of pitching at AA and below next year, and given the question marks about Peralta becoming a starter I would bet that they unload him while he's young and other teams think he can still be a starter. Lots of guys 2-4 years away... they need someone now.

 

I like any plan that puts Parra back in AAA to become part of our 'depth' personally.

 

It was revealed recently that Parra was pitching with shoulder discomfort most of the season, and will have off-season surgery to correct it/clean it up. People have been inquiring who the next "Edwin Jackson" is... and it might just very well be Manny Parra.

[dadofandrew]

Doug said "it will be hard to keep Cameron and Kendall", so unless they take significant cuts (and Jason might), I think they are gone. Sadly, you can't offer either one arby, unless you have a deal in place to decline.

[Flood Pants]

How much would the pitching have to improve to offset the loss of Cameron's glove? The difference between Cameron and just about anyone else in CF is significant. Plus we'd be losing the runs he contributes on offense. The net gain in run differential might be minimal if he were replaced with a similarly-priced pitcher.

 

Catch-22 here. Can't afford to pay him, can't afford to lose him. I sure hope he's willing to take a pay cut.

[ecjimg]

How much would the pitching have to improve to offset the loss of Cameron's glove? The difference between Cameron and just about anyone else in CF is significant. The net gain in run differential might be minimal if he were replaced with a similarly-priced pitcher.

 

I guess i just disagree with statements like that. How many hits, runs, games did cameron really save? I do agree that he played great defense and saved some runs.....but more value than a pitcher earing 10mill?? He dropped it when it really counted. Game one of the playoffs last year. One spectacular catch, instead of getting to it and dropping it,,,,and its a different ballgame.

[TooLiveBrew]

The problem once again is that one year of $10M probably doesn't translate to a SP. If you're talking FA pitching, it's at least $10M over 3 or more years.

[Flood Pants]

Let's put this into perespective. I'll throw out Pinero as a comparison because he's likely to be a top free agent target. Cameron's VORP on offense this year (his runs above replacement level) was 26.5, Pinero's was 35.4. Which means, if Cameron prevented at least 9 more runs from scoring than his potential replacement would (which I understand could be a stretch), the move would be a wash. Even if Cameron is worth just a few runs above replacement (which he certainly must be), the move would have minimal impact.

 

UNLESS Cameron is replaced with somebody who is similar to him in quality. Somebody who the Brewers don't have, so that would also require spending money.

 

This, combined with that Pinero had a career year that he's unlikely to beat, and he'll be one of the best free agent targets. There's no pitcher out there they can sign that will be worth more to this team than Cameron. Maybe they can top him through a trade, but doubtful through the free agency.

[joepepsi]

Cameron averaged 2.92 chances per 9 innings this year. Adam Jones for the Orioles averaged 3.25 chances per 9. I'll compare these two because both are considered good CF'ers and both played with terrible pitching staffs. As important as CF defense is, I find it hard to believe those 3 chances a CF'er gets every 27 outs are more valuable than the 18-21 outs of a good starting pitcher.

[endaround]

Gerut, Cameron's likely replacement, will likely be 2-2.5 wins worse than Cameron by a combination of defense and offense. Your pitcher needs to be worth at least that much.

[JohnBriggs12]

Gerut, Cameron's likely replacement, will likely be 2-2.5 wins worse than Cameron by a combination of defense and offense. Your pitcher needs to be worth at least that much.

That is of course assuming that Cameron at age 37 will not see a drop in his production and that Gerut isn't capable of matching Cameron's 09 OPS of .794, despite the fact that Gerut playing in a much larger yard is one year removed from an .845 OPS or that they can't get a reasonable platoon partner (Kapler?, Baldelli?) for Gerut that will combine to match or exceed Cameron's production.

[NievesNoNO]

Cameron's value will not be able to be replaced through a pitcher with a similar cost. I really hope we resign him. I think he's even more valuable considering Braun is a bad left fielder and Hart is below average in right. We could very well end up with worst OF defense in the league if Cameron leaves.

[joepepsi]

Gerut's career OPS is .765. Cameron's in .788. Cameron's OPS the last two years with Milwaukee is .801. Gerut's last two seasons OPS is .758. I realize it's a small sample size, but Gerut's OPS since the All Star break was .802.

 

Obviously Cameron is a proven commodity, while we can't be sure how Gerut will perform everyday, 4 years removed from a major injury. But over his career Gerut has been a similar hitter to Cameron: league average obp, a little above league average slugging. I'm not convinced offensively there is a big difference between the two.

 

Gerut's played more innings in RF than CF, so maybe he's not a real good CF'er. Someone else can address that. At any rate it seems almost any new starter would be 2.5 wins better than the 2009 starter he replaces.

[Invader3K]

I think Cameron is just a luxury this team probably will not be able to afford next year, if they want to improve the pitching significantly (which is an absolute must that anyone can plainly see). If he's willing to come back for aroun $5-6 million, maybe keep him. Otherwise let him walk elsewhere. We need quality starting pitching much more than an aging but still good CF.