2010 Bullpen almost set?

[CheezWizHed]

One of the positives that came out of a tough year, is that it seems that we have improved our bullpen options going into 2010:

 

BP at the end of 2009: Hoffman, Coffey, McClung, Stetter, Villenueva, Vargas*, Weathers*, Smith*, Narveson*, Axford*, Burns*. Plus DeFelice on the DL

* - Not on MLB roster on opening day.

 

Assuming a 12-man pitching roster, there are only 7 spots in the BP:

Locks: Hoffman, Coffey, Stetter

Probable: Vargas, DeFelice

Bubble: Villenueva, Axford, McClung, Narveson, Smith

Released: I doubt Weathers is back unless some trades happen. I'd be happy with Burns in AAA, but not starting on the 25-man roster.

 

Villenueva: scares me a bit because his lapses have happened a couple times now.

Axford: I'm definitely backing this horse. We need some arms with gas.

McClung: Not sure what happened this season, but I think he is still worthy of a MLB spot. Maybe included in a trade...

Narveson: I really didn't pay much attention to him this year, but had good results. I've heard he has a "good" FB for a lefty... anyone know what he throws? 6'-3" is bigger than I thought he was..

Smith: Did well this year, but I'm not fully convinced yet. More than willing to let him win a spot in ST.

 

Actually, I'm hoping that Suppan ends up in the BP, cause that means we added more SPs to bump him back. He is expensive in ANY role right now, but I think long man/spot starter is his best role. Maybe Narveson even bumps him to the BP...

 

I would love to see another quality experienced arm brought in for cheap, but its nice to have 5 solid guys + 5 possibilities for the last two spots.

[bamberger]

I'd let Narveson compete as a starter; if he doesn't make the grade, I'd keep him as a starter at AAA for depth.

 

In the bullpen I would consider Hoffman, Coffey and Stetter "locks", try to sign Vargas as a FA, let Weathers and Riske go and let the rest fight for three or four other bullpen slots. I would also take a look at Zach Braddock, who might as well pitch in the majors as a bullpenner until his arm/stamina strengthens and he can be a starter.

[endaround]

Vargas doesn't look to be a FA. Riske is under contract and likely on the DL until June anyway.

 

Hoffman, Stetter, Coffey and DeFelice if healthy are locks. Vargas if he's not a FA will likely be back. Narveson is out of options so if he's not bumping Suppan/Bush out of the rotation he's here or they are. That leaves one spot and it shouldn't be an expensive choice like McClung or Weathers.

[joepepsi]

I wonder if it's time to try Villy as a starter again. In AAA of course, to provide depth and avoid what happened this year. Unlike say, Dillard, Carlos has a good K rate and K:BB ratio.

 

Cott's lists Vargas as having 5.31 years of service time. If that's including this year then the Brewers would have rights to him for 2010. It doesn't seem possible since he's been around forever, but service time is a weird calculation for these journeymen types.

 

I'm OK with letting Weathers go; probably McClung too. But you don't want to be casting too many arms to the wind before Spring Training even begins.

[endaround]

That's what he entered the year with. I think the Dodgers had him in the minor's long enough that he didn't get quite enough days but its not really easy to find days spent on the roster (at least that I know of). As for Villaneuva, he'll have over 3 years so I think he might have to pass through waivers to use an option and he's arby eligible so that makes it a bit more complicated.

[JohnBriggs12]

Vargas doesn't look to be a FA. Riske is under contract and likely on the DL until June anyway.

 

Hoffman, Stetter, Coffey and DeFelice if healthy are locks. Vargas if he's not a FA will likely be back. Narveson is out of options so if he's not bumping Suppan/Bush out of the rotation he's here or they are. That leaves one spot and it shouldn't be an expensive choice like McClung or Weathers.

I wouldn't say they want Narveson in the top 5 in March, but if they started the season today, he would be. Both Bush and Suppan are not only possibly going to get bumped out of the rotation, it's likely both will. Suppan in his final contract year will no longer be an automatic just to justify his salary. Bush is a real non-tender candidate. Why would you spend nearly $4 million on a guy coming off the year he had? Don't take my word either. Haudricourt said on WTMJ that he asked Macha about the 5 guys who started the year still being possibilities to all be back in rotation next April. Macha asked him bluntly: "Where did we finish in starters' ERA?" TH answered "Last" Macha retorted: "You answered your own question".

 

I put the over/under on the number of starters for 2010 from the 5 last year at 2 1/2. It's not out of the question that only Gallardo is back as a starter. Parra could get dealt or beaten out by Narveson for the one lefty spot. They could go with 2 lefties too. The only way I see Looper back is if they refuse his option and sign him for less money. Suppan will be around but he could end up as long man/starter depth.

 

There is no question they are going to add at least 2 starters via either trade or FA. You don't raise ticket prices and try to sell that rotation. Narveson is in the mix too.

 

As to the bullpen, I'd expect McClung to also be non-tendered. Villanueva is still very much in the picture. They aren't going to give up on him just yet. Difelice is guaranteed nothing unless he proves he's fully healthy and even then, his body of work isn't that extensive. Coffey is the best trading chip they have not named Gamel. Weathers fate depends on whether Coffey is used in a deal or not. Vargas opened eyes big time and goes into next year as 1-2 with Coffey as setup guys. Vargas appears to have been miscast as a starter. He's ideally suited in the pen.

 

Smith and Axford are also still in the picture and don't rule out some other arm showing up in camp.

 

Bottom line, the bullpen is an area of some depth but teams typically tinker with their pens every offseason. If the Brewers can maximize the value of Hardy by adding a Coffey to a deal to get a starter they want, they will do it and not think twice. If that causes them to look for another arm, there are plenty available.

[Never Outhustled]

Vargas has always been a guy I thought had a relievers stuff. Sinker/Slider guy without a worthwhile 3rd pitch needed for starting. The Brewers put him in the pen a little in 2007, but not long enough to settle in. He looks great now, and is a big find going into 2010.

 

While the bullpen might not be completely settle, we have all the guys we need to pitch the high leverage innings, so we don't need to use any resources to add anything more to the pen. As Bamberger mentions, Zack Braddock could become a major factor in the pen sometime during next season too.

[brewers4eric]

Most teams will utilize 8 starters and around 15 relievers over the course of a major league season. As the Brewers proved in 2009, the 12 pitchers that break camp with the team combine with another 10 or 11 that take an express flight from Milwaukee to Nashville during the summer.

The rotation lacked quality at the front of it and depth at the back. If the Brewers have the same starting five in 2010 that began the rotation in 2009, it will signal a failure of the current focus of their offseason. We used nine starters this year, but at this point I think that Gallardo is the only lock for 2010. You've identified five solid contributors to the bullpen, but when you consider the amount of depth we'll need over the entire season, we are only half way there.

It seemed like we struggled for years to identify starters to go along with Ben Sheets. It took years for guys like Wayne Franklin and Matt Kinney to be replaced by a star like CC Sabathia. The cycle seems to be repeating itself for 2010 with four question marks behind Gallardo.

[joepepsi]

Bush is a real non-tender candidate. Why would you spend nearly $4 million on a guy coming off the year he had? Don't take my word either. Haudricourt said on WTMJ that he asked Macha about the 5 guys who started the year still being possibilities to all be back in rotation next April. Macha asked him bluntly: "Where did we finish in starters' ERA?" TH answered "Last" Macha retorted: "You answered your own question".

You raise some good points endaround. I agree no one save Yo should consider themselves a lock for the rotation. That said, I don't agree Bush is a non tender candidate. It would be a big mistake to cut loose Bush. I'm willing to sign off his season to injury and give him a chance at the back of the rotation.

[dadofandrew]

They plan to have 6-7 SP types at the beginning of spring training, so a spot or two will probably be reserved for 1 or 2 of them. Narveson, who is out of options, may well start in the 'pen. Axford has all his options and should not start in the bigs, as that would likely leave no depth at all in AAA.

[CheezWizHed]

Axford has all his options and should not start in the bigs, as that would likely leave no depth at all in AAA.

Yeah, that's why I had him listed as a "bubble" guy. I expect he will "earn" a spot, but get optioned to AAA anyway.

[davego]

I'd think that Looper could have a role in the top five someplace. Not that he is great or anything, but there has to be someone to replace him; I'd toss other guys overboard first. For the dollars 'the Crew could do worse.

[CheezWizHed]

Most teams will utilize 8 starters and around 15 relievers over the course of a major league season.

 

Well, I can go further for AAA BP depth also:

Braddock

Hinton

Dillard

Wooten

 

I'm not saying we are set, just that its nice to see something that was a weakness grow to being solid.

[Never Outhustled]

Axford has all his options and should not start in the bigs, as that would likely leave no depth at all in AAA.

I hate that plan, to send down 1 of the top 12 pitchers so we have depth. This is the line of thinking that caused us to suffer through Jorge julio last year. If we kept our top pitchers, that would minimize the need for depth.

[logan82]

Keeping a guy stretched out in AAA would be more useful than using him as one of the long guys out of the pen.

[trwi7]

Keeping a guy stretched out in AAA would be more useful than using him as one of the long guys out of the pen.

But we're talking about Axford. He's a reliever, not a starter. So if he's one of the seven best relievers, he should be on the 25 man roster, not in AAA as "depth."

[logan82]

Provided he isn't the long man/garbage inning guy, I agree. The 7th best guy in the pen doesn't get many/meaningful innings. If something happens he can easily be brought up from AAA. If he isn't one of the top 5 guys, send him to AAA to keep pitching.

[Never Outhustled]

Provided he isn't the long man/garbage inning guy, I agree. The 7th best guy in the pen doesn't get many/meaningful innings. If something happens he can easily be brought up from AAA. If he isn't one of the top 5 guys, send him to AAA to keep pitching

A guy should only be a garbage inning guy if he's struggling. Otherwise everbody should get regular work.

[logan82]

X ellence wrote:

A guy should only be a garbage inning guy if he's struggling. Otherwise everbody should get regular work.

They don't though. The manager will typically have one or two guys who get little or no work.

[TheCrew07]

We have a plehtora of relieving depth between AAA and AA, there's no reason to sign or keep anyone who's not one of our best for depth's sake. The same is true of the starting rotation... Butler, Rivas, and Rogers will be better than retaining Looper for a fraction of the cost. If they struggle they are a better option because they're young, cheap, and will improve... Looper is none of those things, though I guess he has an outside chance to improve.

[Never Outhustled]

They don't though. The manager will typically have one or two guys who get little or no work

Who pitched well that didn't get regular work this year?

[BrewCrewForever]

I'm really hoping Vargas comes back. He was very impressive out of the pen. Didn't like him as a starter back in 07' but perhaps he has found his niche. Good job by Melvin getting him for basically nothing.

[marty22]

I'd let Narveson compete as a starter; if he doesn't make the grade, I'd keep him as a starter at AAA for depth.

 

In the bullpen I would consider Hoffman, Coffey and Stetter "locks", try to sign Vargas as a FA, let Weathers and Riske go and let the rest fight for three or four other bullpen slots. I would also take a look at Zach Braddock, who might as well pitch in the majors as a bullpenner until his arm/stamina strengthens and he can be a starter.

Not sure if this is the place for this, but i had an interesting thought the other day about Narveson. Obviously it was a small sample, but he really looked good in his starts down the stretch. Does anyone think he could be a Jorge DLR type? We were patient with him (being able to stash him in AAA helped a ton), but his high draft position and good stuff point to his potential. He reminds me a lot of Wandy Rodriguez, who also took a while to figure things out. I don't have any expectations for him, but it would be nice to have our own DLR-type story.