Hoffman Close to Signing; Latest -- '10 deal signed for $8 mil, plus mutual option for '11 (reply #33)

[crewcrazy]

I suspect we'll be getting a lot of news like this in the next few days. We already heard that Macha would be back earlier, and now it appears that Trevor Hoffman may be close to coming back next year. Per a TH post-game blog post:

''I think we're pretty close," said Hoffman, whose season ended on a personally disappointing note today with his fourth blown save in what became a 9-7, 10-inning victory over St. Louis.

"We're in discussions. That fact that we're discussing things is good."

Hoffman, who signed a $6 million free agent deal in the off-season, had a fantastic first season with the Brewers, converting 37 of 41 save opportunities and posting a 1.83 ERA in 55 outings.

Assistant GM Gord Ash confirmed to me that talks are underway for a new deal but said he couldn't provide details.

It'll be interesting to see what he's willing to come back for. Considering the way he performed this year, I have no doubts that he's at least in for a bit of a raise.

[Invader3K]

If it's around $7 million or so, I think it's fair at this point. He's been worth what he's been paid this year. I don't want to go back to the days of wondering how we're going to get through the late part of games.

[yoshii8]

It would be nice to have our closer spot filled before the off-season, one less thing to do. I'm very happy w/ Hoffman.

[jjfanec]

I agree with the sentiments so far. Sign Hoffman as quickly as possible and then move on to the rotation. Hoffman has been very reliable. It is a low risk move and allows us to continue to try to develop a closer for the future.

[ELCABALLO45]

Never to early to start the hot stove talk!

 

I like this, no one would of thought Hoffman would of been this good this year. To bad we had to waste his great season. Sign him back up!

[wibadgers23]

Not so bold prediction: Jason Kendall will be the next to sign.

[kramnoj]

I think it's fantastic that Hoffman is so eager to stay that he doesn't even want to become a FA again to see what his options are. This offseason could see a fair amount of movement, but I'm glad to see Hoffman return.

[Funketown]

This would probably be a good deal for both sides somewhere around $5MM. Gotta figure Hoffman is worth around that on the field and brings in a few extra fans throughout the season. Losing the draft pick is a bit annoying (last I checked he was a type B, right?), but it will still be nice to see him back.

[Invader3K]

This would probably be a good deal for both sides somewhere around $5MM.

That would be a pay cut for him. Not gonna happen.

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree with the sentiments so far. Sign Hoffman as quickly as possible and then move on to the rotation. Hoffman has been very reliable. It is a low risk move and allows us to continue to try to develop a closer for the future.

 

I find it interesting that you could swap out Mike Cameron's name in this statement, along with 'CF' for 'CP', yet Brewers fans seem very much split on whether or not to bring Mike back... meanwhile no one even thinks to object to Hoffman returning.

 

I like that Hoffman appears to be coming back (since clearly he's still very good), but the problem is the starting rotation, not the guy that throws some of the lowest-leverage innings of any pitcher on the roster.

 

 

EDIT: The first sentence I typed is by no means a shot at jjfanec. I completely agree with his point on Hoffman, his post just sparked my thoughts on Cam.

[kramnoj]

I like that Hoffman appears to be coming back (since clearly he's still very good), but the problem is the starting rotation, not the guy that throws some of the lowest-leverage innings of any pitcher on the roster.

 

Are you using leverage in a different way than the stat that uses the same name? Because Hoffman had the highest leverage for the Brewers this year and he had the 8th highest WPA/LI among relievers this season.

[Tbadder]

That's a nice bit of coin that could've gone toward a starting pitcher. Too bad. Putting the cart before the horses--interesting strategy.

[kramnoj]

Money can be made available for a starter if the deal is right and the pitcher is willing. I seriously doubt that Hoffman's deal will prevent a starter from coming to Milwaukee.

[TheCrew07]

The closer being in high leverage situations is a function of what happens in front of him, not that he's being used in the best possible way. I'm not one to go to the luck card as I think people are way to quick to qualify events they don't know how to explain as "luck". However with the number of close games the Brewers played and the relative lack of IP Hoffman had, it's not difficult to believe that his high number of appearances in high leverage situations had more to do with luck than his role as the closer this season.

 

Spending money on 55ish IP isn't money well spent, there's just not enough value in so few IP. This is has nothing to do with Hoffman, just closers in general. The Brewers literally have a ton of options for the pen down the road, the pen isn't the issue, the number of innings the starters left for the bull pen this season was the issue. A closer doesn't stabilize the pen, in truth he limits flexibility because he's always the 9th inning guy. If the Brewers want to stabilize the pen then Melvin should put together a better starting rotation this winter in addition to hoping Parra finds himself, give them less innings to pitch and the results will be better.

 

I wouldn't be shocked to see Hoffman retained, Kendell resigned because Salome didn't tear up AAA, Cameron retained in CF because of Cain's season, Looper's option picked up, and i won't be surprised if Melvin doesn't find a good deal for Hardy, Hart, or McGehee and both Escobar and Gamel start the year in AAA. Essentially, I won't be surprised if we have largely the exact same team going into 2010 as we had in 2009.

[kramnoj]

The Brewers literally have a ton of options for the pen down the road, the pen isn't the issue, the number of innings the starters left for the bull pen this season was the issue.

 

What does the Brewers options for the pen down the road have to do with Hoffman next year?

 

The Brewers have some money to spend. Since there aren't likely good deals to be found in the FA market for SP, it seems acceptable to retain Hoffman for a reasonable deal (assuming facts not yet in evidence).

[TooLiveBrew]

I like that Hoffman appears to be coming back (since clearly he's still very good), but the problem is the starting rotation, not the guy that throws some of the lowest-leverage innings of any pitcher on the roster.

 

Are you using leverage in a different way than the stat that uses the same name? Because Hoffman had the highest leverage for the Brewers this year and he had the 8th highest WPA/LI among relievers this season.

Nope, I used the whole "guy that throws some of the lowest" part wrong. I'm genuinely shocked that Hoffman had so many high-leverage innings, since I'd thought the Closer role (stereo)typically has been shown to not work as many high-leverage innings, as, say, the Set-Up man.

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/embarassed.gif I'm glad you corrected me on that one... sheesh.

[Menace II Sobriety]

Compared to dropping 10 M on Gagne for a year whatever Hoffman signs for is great. From all accounts he likes Milwaukee but more importantly doesn't want to move again, this gives him 3 options: Padres w/ the new GM if they want him and trade Bell, Brewers, retire. Options 1 & 3 are not going to happen. I would gladly have him back for another year to bridge the gap until one of the young guys (hopefully Braddock) steps up and takes the spot.

 

The Brewers have a ton of options for this winter and basically everyone is on the block, I believe that next years team will have some extreme changes in it. One way or another they are going to probably get a C, RF, 2 SP, and some relief pitching. I just hope this little hot streak at the end of the season doesn't entice them to bring Kendall back.

[TheCrew07]

How do you know that Axford, Braddock, Aguilar, or someone currently on the 25 man won't out perform Hoffman next year? Reliever stats tend to be fairly volatile from season to season anyway. I don't know that they will and honestly I don't care if they will, but I'd rather not bank on a 42 year old closer to repeat a season and sign him so I feel "good" about the situation with the pen. Again the root cause of the issues with the bullpen this season start and pretty much end with the rotation.

 

Fix the rotation, then the pen won't have to eat as many innings, and let the vets and potential younger candidates for the pen fight it out for roster spots next spring. At this point with the current rotation Hoffman's presence will not make or break the 2010 Brewers either way, so why the spend money if it's not necessary? Because Trevor Time is cool? For name recognition? Does he somehow legitimatize the franchise? Unless he signs a deal way below market value he's just not money well spent. He's a great guy who's an icon in the sport and had a great season, but if Melvin's approach is going to be to try and target better talent for the bullpen then how is this team going to improve in a meaningful way? What good is putting on a band aid on the symptom if the root cause is never addressed?

 

Hoffman shouldn't be one of the first moves this off season, he should be one of the last.

[Menace II Sobriety]

Fix the rotation, then the pen won't have to eat as many innings, and let the vets and potential younger candidates for the pen fight it out for roster spots next spring. At this point with the current rotation Hoffman's presence will not make or break the 2010 Brewers either way, so why the spend money if it's not necessary? Because Trevor Time is cool? For name recognition? Does he somehow legitimatize the franchise? Unless he signs a deal way below market value he's just not money well spent. He's a great guy who's an icon in the sport and had a great season, but if Melvin's approach is going to be to try and target better talent for the bullpen then how is this team going to improve in a meaningful way? What good is putting on a band aid on the symptom if the root cause is never addressed?

 

Hoffman shouldn't be one of the first moves this off season, he should be one of the last.

Yep, you caught me Trevor time is cool. That is why I started smoking in 8th grade and started drinking in 9th. Always trying to hang out with the cool kids. Let's be real, if this team spent all of this money on the rotation and didn't have a closer all of these games would get blown. Remember how tough it was when we thought Gagne was our closer, how about Mike Adams, Turnbow anyone? The team got lucky and traded Kolb.

 

If you really feel as though a reliever that had an ERA of 1.83 and was 5th in the league in saves even though he missed over a month of service time is a waste of space, than I think we have different views as to how close this team is to achieving. Correct me if I am wrong but I have never seen a contending team give the closer role to a player that had never performed in any circumstance in MLB, but yet this makes sense to you. We could bring up the young guns and teach them the situation while bridging the gap to 2011. Name one guy that could outperform a 1.83 and prove why he could and I will eat my words.

 

Ask the Phillies what they would pay for Hoffman during the stretch run, that is how I determine value. Maybe it's just me but I will take my chances with one of the top 2 closers in MLB history at the reported 8M.

[ELCABALLO45]

SI's John Heyman says (tweets)...

 

"Trevor Hoffman will be returning to to the brewers. deal for about $8 mil expected to be done within a week"

[sdcheezhd]

I was also surprised Hoffman did so well this year. They were not choked up to see him leave in San Diego -- memories of Tony Gwynn's triple and the 3 runs he gave up to the Rockies in the playoff in 07 run deep. But though I admit it seemed like more he only blew 4 saves in 08 as well. I remember thinking when he signed that the Brewers probably had 4 or 5 relievers that blew more than 4 saves in 08. When he came back earlier this year he immediately made the whole bullpen better. A whole lot less late inning drama this year, not only the 9th but the 7th and 8th too. His 500th save was a big deal and his 600th likely will be too. I'm happy he's coming back.

[Yeti73]

$8 mil is quite a bit, but if we get the production we got this year from him, I'd gladly take it. Keep Coffey and develop some of those younger guys and the less we have to deal with guys like Gagne, Jorge Julio et al. I fully expect Melvin to look at the scrap heap and see if anything sticks, but his attention will be on the starting rotation, catcher (hopefully) and elsewhere.

[Invader3K]

I wouldn't be shocked to see Hoffman retained, Kendell resigned because Salome didn't tear up AAA, Cameron retained in CF because of Cain's season, Looper's option picked up, and i won't be surprised if Melvin doesn't find a good deal for Hardy, Hart, or McGehee and both Escobar and Gamel start the year in AAA. Essentially, I won't be surprised if we have largely the exact same team going into 2010 as we had in 2009.

This seems extremely pessimistic. You're being naive if you think there won't at least be some changes to the team next year. Everyone from Mark Attanasio on down knows this team has to make some changes if they want to compete next season.

 

Oh, and with the way Escobar showed he can hit (yes, I know his OBP is still relatively low, but I think he'll improve there), I fully expect him to be the starting shortstop on Opening Day 2010.

[kramnoj]

How do you know that Axford, Braddock, Aguilar, or someone currently on the 25 man won't out perform Hoffman next year?

 

I would love it if all of those 3 were great performers in the pen next year. I don't think it's likely, but it would be great. It certainly shouldn't be counted on.

 

At this point with the current rotation Hoffman's presence will not make or break the 2010 Brewers either way, so why the spend money if it's not necessary?

 

There is no player in baseball that will make the 2010 Brewers, so why spend any money at all?

 

Because Trevor Time is cool? For name recognition? Does he somehow legitimatize the franchise?

 

Yes, yes, yes. Anytime a player as good as Hoffman wants to stay with the Brewers rather than test FA, it's a good thing. If the Brewers spend $2M more this season for a player beyond just on the field performance, they are basically investing in the franchise by doing so. If I thought they could get great value for that extra $2M, I would be more hesistant, but I think it's acceptable.

 

but if Melvin's approach is going to be to try and target better talent for the bullpen then how is this team going to improve in a meaningful way? What good is putting on a band aid on the symptom if the root cause is never addressed?

 

I hope Melvin's approach is to build the best team he can in 2010 and beyond. Losing Hoffman makes the team worse. Letting him become a FA increases the chance of him raising his price and/or being gone. Quickly resigning him gets one problem out of the way and lets Melvin spend more time on focusing on the really difficult tasks of what to do with Lopez, what to do at catcher, at CF, with Hardy, at 3B, etc. And of course job #1 is to improve the starting pitching, which will influence all the previous moves.

[jjfanec]

I agree with the sentiments so far. Sign Hoffman as quickly as possible and then move on to the rotation. Hoffman has been very reliable. It is a low risk move and allows us to continue to try to develop a closer for the future.

 

I find it interesting that you could swap out Mike Cameron's name in this statement, along with 'CF' for 'CP', yet Brewers fans seem very much split on whether or not to bring Mike back... meanwhile no one even thinks to object to Hoffman returning.

 

I like that Hoffman appears to be coming back (since clearly he's still very good), but the problem is the starting rotation, not the guy that throws some of the lowest-leverage innings of any pitcher on the roster.

 

 

EDIT: The first sentence I typed is by no means a shot at jjfanec. I completely agree with his point on Hoffman, his post just sparked my thoughts on Cam.

I agree with you on Cam as well although that is probably for another thread. I think he would take a pay cut to stay which would be nice.

 

I do not understand the cart before the horses analogy. A solid bullpen makes your relievers better. Even with a terrible rotation Hoffman almost got 40 saves. That is a lot of chances. You have to believe they will get one pitcher through a trade. They will have Gallardo, Bush, pitcher via trade, and then who knows (Suppan, Parra, Narveson, Butler, FA?, Looper, another trade). The Free Agent pitching crop is terrible so it makes more sense to spend money on a very good closer than a passable at best starting pitcher.