Is Chris Narveson for real?

[BREWCREW5]

I havent read to much about him on here, so that might answer my question already.

 

Discuss...

[trwi7]

I think he can be at least a decent bullpen arm. He was a top prospect before injuries hit.

[ELCABALLO45]

I always told myself, never trust anything you see in Sept/October or March/Early April.

 

I would LOVE Narveson to be real, however I have been fooled way to many times to trust him.

[Never Outhustled]

Unlike most of our staff, he at least has a legit fastball. I don't remember him throwing that hard in his 1st stint with us, but he came back up with a vengence. Was there some kind of mechanical tweak they made with him?

[LouisEly]

At this point he can't be worse than Suppan and Looper, so unless the Brewers acquire two starting pitchers better than Narveson (one - likely, two - unlikely) I say give him one of their spots. Let Looper go and save $5M. If you want to rationalize it you can dollar cost average Narveson and Suppan such that each occupies $6.5M of salary next year. I doubt he can maintain what he is doing this year, but if he can give you a 4.50 ERA as their #5 while only being paid $400K, it will make me (and all of us) feel a lot better eating Suppan's contract. They need a better performance than what Suppan gave them but can't spend a lot of money doing so, so I don't see a lot of more economical ways of getting better performance than giving Narveson a shot at league minimum salary.

[Ennder]

If we go into 2010 with Narveson in the rotation then Melvin will really have failed. He isn't really any better than Suppan and Looper and he is capable of starting the season in AAA giving us depth which is something we sorely need. If we can flesh out the rotation and start the season with Narveson, Parra and maybe even one more guy we get via trade in AAA it would make me feel much better about 2010. Even if that means Suppan, Looper, Bush, Gallardo and some scrub are the rotation.

[Never Outhustled]

I don't see Narveson as a Gary Gover type, this guy has above average velocity for a lefty. He's been our 2nd best starting pitcher this year. Gallardo gets 1 rotation spot, the other 4 are wide open.This guy has definately been a welcome suprise.

 

If the Brewers can get 8 WAR combined from the 2-5 rotation spots next yeaar, they are a clear contender.

[Never Outhustled]

Even if that means Suppan, Looper, Bush, Gallardo and some scrub are the rotation.

Thats the worst rotation I've seen in years, and I have proof. Looper is awful, Bush is awful, Suppan is awful.They combined to be .9 Wins Below Replacement this year.

 

Bush might have a better chance, if we were giving odds, than Parra to be 1.5 WAR next year. However, that won't get us to the post season. You'd have to agree that theres better odds of Parra being 3 WAR next year than Bush. Parra has potential. Theres no reason to pay Dave Bush. Guys like him deserve $1 million plus incentives, not guaranteed $5 million.

[Ennder]

We simply disagree on how good of a pitcher Dave Bush is and Looper for that matter. They are hardly super stars and I'd prefer to bring in a real #2/#3 type of guy but Dave Bush is not going to be why we make or miss the playoffs next year. His salary is about equal to his talent.

 

Sorry if I can't be so results oriented to judge these guys on under 200 IP, they have proven to be adequate pitchers if unspectacular over a much longer period of time. Our rotation underproduced compared their talent level, happens to teams every season and next season they'll likely revert to normal just like pitchers do every single season. In 2008 a rotation of Vazquez, Milwood, Zito, Duke and Verlander would have been considered terrible. In 2009 they would have won the division, you can't judge a pitcher by a single season.

 

However what we can't do is go into the season with no backup plan like we did this year, when Bush and Suppan went down the team was sunk because the backups were so terrible and that played a big part in the decision to bring Parra back up and to let Bush try to pitch through his injury.

[DougJones43]

Narveson looks like he has some decent peripherals, albeit in limited work this year. He averaged about 1 K per inning, and his K/BB was 3.15. He throws hard enough, and was a well regarded prospect at one time I believe. Also, LHP seem to develop a bit later than RHP, and Narveson is 27-years-old, which would be the time for him to put things together if he was ever going to.

 

Maybe he could turn out to be a Capuano type pitcher? I really don't know. Looper figures to get even worse next year as he turns 35. I'd prefer to see Narveson get a shot next year over Looper. If we can get someone better than both of them that would be ideal, and in that case Narveson would make for good depth at AAA.

[Never Outhustled]

In 2008 a rotation of Vazquez, Milwood, Zito, Duke and Verlander would have been considered terrible.

Only in the extremely inaccurate view you use to judge pitchers. That group you just called terrible in 2008 was actually 15 Wins Above Replacement that year. Our 5 man rotation was a laughable 2.6 WAR this year.

 

Even if we substitute Looper, Bush, and Suppan's 2008 results into this years total, the rotation would have still only been 6.1 WAR. Thats not contender material.

 

Our problem wasn't depth, it was the fact that our starting 5 was terrible, old, and regressed consistently.

 

Vasquez was 1.5 more WAR last year than Dave Bush has been the last 3 years combined.

[DHonks]

Ender,

 

I just wanted to mention that it seems unlikely that Looper is back as he'll be one of the most sought after free agent pitchers due to the lack of depth.

 

As for Narveson, he could be a decent 5th guy, but ultimately our chances for the playoffs hinge more on Parra, Bush, and Suppan.

[Never Outhustled]

I just wanted to mention that it seems unlikely that Looper is back as he'll be one of the most sought after free agent pitchers due to the lack of depth.

 

nobody wanted Looper this year, and that was before he went out and had a terrible season and showed abvious regresion. When was the last time a -.7 WAR pitcher got a guaranteed deal?

 

 

As for Narveson, he could be a decent 5th guy, but ultimately our chances for the playoffs hinge more on Parra, Bush, and Suppan.

If Narveson starts ahead of Suppan and/or Bush, he would obviously be more important to are playoff chances. You can get alot of odd pitching results, alot of anomallies, but you can't fake the ability to K a batter an inning.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I'm definitely intrigued by Narveson. He got a lot of his K's with the batter looking. Not sure what to take from that but it was by far more than most other pitchers. I'm concluding that he must have some filthy stuff to confuse hitters that much.

 

He would be great to have as depth, either in AAA or in the bullpen. If he starts next year in the rotation, I'll be worried. Just means our depth will be weak.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm concluding that he must have some filthy stuff to confuse hitters that much.

 

It could also be because said hitters had never seen him before, or seen very little of him.

 

I think Narveson will definitely have a shot at next year's rotation. I just hope we don't have to count on him as anything more than a #5 type.

[LouisEly]

Let's steer the Bush/Looper debates toward their own threads.

 

The thing with Narveson is that I think he's shown enough in this limited sample at the end of the year where they will have a hard time sneaking him through to AAA without someone claiming him. Another way of looking at it is that if the Brewers didn't include him in their 40-man roster, what would be the odds that someone would select him in the Rule 5 draft? I would say the odds would be very good. Narveson is also out of options, so I think between someone else claiming him and him declining the assignment and electing to become a free agent, the odds of him making it to AAA to become depth are fairly slim.

 

Whatever it is, he's shown a big improvement both in AAA vs last year as well as at the ML level, so I think it is more than just luck that he is having. He's no All-Star, but could be an improvement over Looper and/or Suppan without having to pay big $$ to a free agent or give up prospects in a trade. This is the biggest reason I am in favor of giving him a shot - it won't cost them anything to do so. I also think they will have enough depth at AAA (Butler, Jones, Cody, Capuano, Hand), but more importantly enough talent at AA (Rogers, Anundsen, Rivas, Merklinger, Periard, Bowman) where they could bring up guys from AA for a spot start or two if needed. Rogers and Periard are already on the 40-man and using up their options; in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Rogers was the first guy they bring up next year and keep him up until he reaches his innings limit.

 

In a perfect world we would all like the Brewers to go out and get two #3-type starters under the age of 30, but the supply and demand for that type is such that it will cost the Brewers a lot in terms of free agent $$ (very low supply) or in terms of prospects in a trade, and I don't think the Brewers have enough resources to be able to acquire two of those. I think they'll acquire one (via trade), but not two.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

I think that Narveson should be given a legitimate shot at the rotation. I haven't seen enough of him to have an impression other than that. I like what I saw. He doesn't appear to be a top of the rotation guy, but I think his stuff can get righthanders out better than left-handers.

[Diskono]

Last season, I really liked Narveson and thought he might end up as DM's next big nugget. He had a bit of a disappointing 2008 so I kind of forgot about him, but he appears to be back on track now. He's certainly better than Suppan/Looper IMO. He hasn't done enough in the majors yet for me to think he's more than a #5 type, but that isn't to say he can't be better.

[Tbadder]

I think the short answer is no, as a starter. But he and Vargas together can give the Brewers something they need, that they never take advantage of, and that is the 3-inning reliever. A pair of 3-inning relievers can take alot of pressure off a bullpen and starting staff. And as our ability to obtain starters is somewhat dubious, these two guys could prove invaluable if used correctly next year. Don't hold your breath though.

[Ennder]

I'm not saying Narveson stinks or would be worse than Bush/Looper/Suppan btw. I'm just saying that we need to have guys like him in AAA because at some point we will need the depth. I'd much rather fill out the rotation with 5 more established guys and have Narveson and maybe even Parra in AAA to fill in the holes for injuries etc.

 

Looper will sign for some team for as much as we gave him this year, pitching is that thin and GMs realize that one year of high HR doesn't really tell the story with him and I should hope they can spot how flawed pitching WAR is if they have a stats guy at all.

[Thurston Fluff]

He's at least good enough to be a swing man to start with. He could be a long man in the pen or spot start on occasion. If he comes in and light it up in spring maybe he starts out as the #5 and Suppan goes to the long man role. He's young, left handed, cheap and has decent stuff. What more can we realistically expect out of the 5th/6th man in the rotation?

[endaround]

He can at least replace McClung. No reason to stick someone his age in AAA.

[Thurston Fluff]

totally agree endaround. (how often does that happen?)http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif I'd rather they revamp their AAA staff with younger guys via trade than stick older ones there. Anyone his age who could realistically be sent to AAA is probably not good enough to help if needed.

[joepepsi]

I agree you don't want to project September performances too far into the future. Still, I think Narveson has shown enough thatit's safe to let Looper go and spend the $5.5 million on someone else. I'd love to see the Brewers sign someone like Lackey and still get a solid pitching prospect or two for Hardy.

[Invader3K]

About 20 other teams would like to probably sign Lackey, so I doubt it will happen.

 

That said, I agree with your stance that they should pencil Narveson into the #5 role and let Looper walk. Spend that money elsewhere, like acquiring a more expensive SP through trade.