End of season grades

[strawbossisevil]

I think it is helpful to look at grading the players as dividing the position up into quin-tiles. And breaking those quin-tiles up in three ways to determine the exact grade (A+, A, A- etc.). I don't think we can throw out all the pitchers who didn't meet the minimum inning requirements since the overwhelming majority of them would fall into the bottom two quin-tiles as far as results (which could probably be clearly shown by averaging the results of those who did not pitch the needed number of innings). I don't think there is any doubt that Yo fits into the top 20% of starting pitchers in the league. His ERA stat, for example, if we are to assume there to be 150 rotation spots in the league, would almost certainly put him in the top 20% of pitchers.

 

For example, Zack Greinke would be in the top third of the top quin-tile. Therefore he gets an A+.

I think Gallardo would fit in the bottom third of the top quin-tile, therefore he would get an A- on the season. I don't think it would be justified to dock him much for missing a couple of starts as I think he would still be in the top quin-tile in games started this season.

 

While assessing future stats stats such as K/BB rate, HR rate, GB/FB rate might be better. If we are focusing on results, on what actually happened this season, I think ERA is the best stat for pitchers because it is focused more on results, which is what we are grading here, rather than forward looking projections.

 

I think for hitters OPS or OPS+ would fit best for grading purposes as it measures their run production (although defense and ABs would also have to be taken into consideration). One other thing to consider about Gallardo is that he is probably in the top 20% of all hitting pitchers too. I don't think that would change my grade on him, but it's something to think about.

[LouisEly]

I think Gallardo would fit in the bottom third of the top quin-tile, therefore he would get an A- on the season.

 

One might assume that, but such is not the case. You have to look just at NL pitchers though because AL pitchers have to face the DH about 130 more games than NL pitchers do (and vice versa - NL pitchers pitch to pitchers a lot more than AL pitchers do; plus NL pinch hitters are generally much inferior to AL DH's). This alters the pitching stats so that AL vs. NL pitchers are not an apples-to-apples comparison. Notice how on Monty's list there were only two AL starters - the other 8 were NL.

 

Whether I compared to just "qualified" pitchers or lowered the bar to 100 innings, the only category that Yo placed in the top 20% or even top 25% of NL starters was strikeouts. See the rankings I posted above for the categories; trust me, when I compared him just to "qualified" starters, Yo looked even worse.

[strawbossisevil]

But my point was that you just can't get rid of pitchers based on an IP count, because the majority of SPs not reaching that inning mark were worse than Gallardo. That fact can not be ignored, and that fact clearly would push Gallardo's numbers into the top quin-tile, especially in ERA, which I think is the best measure of success when looking at results (while other counting stats may be better for predicting how he'll do in the future, ERA gives the results of what he was able to accomplish with those numbers this year). I understand that he is in the NL and that might help him a bit, but when you consider the fact that there are a lot of bad pitchers that you are throwing out for not having a sufficient number of innings, and when you consider the fact that Yo Gallardo is a great hitting pitcher. I don't see anyway anyone can justify a grade below A-/B+ (with B+ being very pessimistic).

 

Rating him as being in the bottom third of the second quin-tile is utterly ridiculous IMO, especially when you would add hitting into the equation.

[rluzinski]

If a person wants to define their grading system in such a way as to give half the players being graded an F, that's their choice. If Yo is a B-, that's roughly what you end up with.

 

And their's atleast a quarter run difference between the AL and NL..

[strawbossisevil]

Right, but the thing is, unless I misunderstood his point, he is not saying that half of all pitchers are getting F grades. If he is saying that he is grading it not in quin-tiles, but having it more like high school/college (<60% get Fs, 60-70% get Ds, 70-80% get Cs, 80-90% get Bs, 90-100% get As) then yes, a B- grade would make sense for Gallardo. But then I question some of his other grades (cf Suppan and Looper).

[LouisEly]

But my point was that you just can't get rid of pitchers based on an IP count, because the majority of SPs not reaching that inning mark were worse than Gallardo. That fact can not be ignored, and that fact clearly would push Gallardo's numbers into the top quin-tile, especially in ERA

 

But I did that - I lowered the threshold to 100IP from "qualified". So it included those who were "worse than Gallardo" in innings. It also included some pitchers who shouldn't be included - those who started the year in the minors, and didn't have a chance to accumulate as many stats. And he still only was in the top 25% of NL starters in only one category - strikeouts.

 

I defined an A as the top 25% of NL starters - very liberal. The median - half were better and half were worse - was a C. Yo had the second most walks in the NL - I generously gave him a D for that.

 

Russ, would you please post some statistics that Gallardo was in the top 25% of NL starters? You have yet to do that in this thread, despite insisting that Gallard was better than a B (I gave you a B for him instead of the original B-).

[logan82]

I tried something similar to this and came up with these approx ERA and innings per start stats for NL starters.

 

#1 - 3.19/6.3

#2 - 3.77/6.1

#3 - 4.24/5.8

#4 - 4.73/5.7

#5 - 5.65/5.2

 

I used 32 starts per spot in the rotation. Instead of averaging the ERA I split the runs and innings then calculated ERA after adding up all the runs and innings.

[logan82]

Catchers

Kendall C-

Rivera C-

1B

Fielder B+

2B

Lopez B+

Counsell B+

Weeks A-

3B

McGehee B-

Gamel C+

SS

Hardy D+

Counsell B

Escobar C-

LF

Braun B-

CF

Cameron B

Gerut F

RF

Hart D

Gerut F

Cattalanotto D+

 

Gallardo B

Bush F

Parra F

Suppan D

Looper D

[jjfanec]

1B

Fielder B+

 

LF

Braun B-

What is an A or A- in your book? Prince only gets a B+ while posting the 3rd highest OPS in all of baseball. Only the two future MVP's Pujols and Mauer are ahead of Prince. Braun gets a B- while posting the 13th highest OPS (while stealing 20 bases). No OFer had a better OPS than Braun in any league. You must have thought their defense was just terrible. I respect the time you put into making this list. I do not watch enough of their games (do not get them) to make a list like this. I am just trying to figure out what could get an A or A-.

[Buckylovesbeer]

1B

Fielder B+

 

LF

Braun B-

What is an A or A- in your book? Prince only gets a B+ while posting the 3rd highest OPS in all of baseball. Only the two future MVP's Pujols and Mauer are ahead of Prince. Braun gets a B- while posting the 13th highest OPS (while stealing 20 bases). No OFer had a better OPS than Braun in any league. You must have thought their defense was just terrible. I respect the time you put into making this list. I do not watch enough of their games (do not get them) to make a list like this. I am just trying to figure out what could get an A or A-.

I agree. Fielder with a B+ and Braun with a B- is pretty harsh for the fact that no combo in the majors put up the numbers they did. It could be argued that Prince had one of the finest seasons in Brewer history.

[logan82]

Top offensive player who plays excellent defense would be an A+. Fielder, while being a top offensive player, is only average at defense. Braun has bad defense. While Braun and Fielder have excellent bats, they also play at positions where the bar is higher on offense.

[jjfanec]

Top offensive player who plays excellent defense would be an A+. Fielder, while being a top offensive player, is only average at defense. Braun has bad defense. While Braun and Fielder have excellent bats, they also play at positions where the bar is higher on offense.

While they play at premium offensive positions they both are the top (Braun) or second (Fielder) in OPS at those positions in all of baseball. I simply that is putting way too much weight on defense, especially for Braun. He is the best hitting OFer in all of baseball this year yet his defense is bad enough to drop him to a B-? He is not Carlos Lee or Adam Dunn out there. Fielder also was much improved on defense this year.

[Ennder]

A - Fielder, Braun, Cameron, Gallardo, Hoffman

B - Counsell, Lopez, McGehee, Coffey

C - DiFelice, Stetter, Smith

D - Hardy, Hart, Bush, Villanueva, Suppan, Looper, McClung

F - Kendall, Hall, Parra, Burns

 

Rest of the guys probably didn't play enough to matter or were hurt like Weeks. Grading system is simple, A is a player every team in baseball would have wanted. B is an above average guy who doesnt' make the A list. C is an average guy. D is a below average guy who I felt was above replacement(Bush getting an exception because of injury) and F is a guy I think would have hurt most teams on the season.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Despite all the banter back and forth...you all did better than TH in assigning grades. Kendall a C? Get off the clubhouse Kool-Aid, the guy was a D- at best (and that's giving him the benefit of the doubt and credit for playing so much).

 

Also couldn't understand being so harsh on Bush. The guy had a bad year, but he was hurt. I'd rather take my shot with a cheaper, better, healthy Bush than Looper. At least Bush was adequate late last year and early this year before he got hurt. He's also the only NL Central pitcher to win a playoff game since 2006 (ok, maybe that last part should be blueish).

[logan82]

Also couldn't understand being so harsh on Bush. The guy had a bad year, but he was hurt. I'd rather take my shot with a cheaper, better, healthy Bush than Looper. At least Bush was adequate late last year and early this year before he got hurt. He's also the only NL Central pitcher to win a playoff game since 2006 (ok, maybe that last part should be blueish).

 

I can't speak for anybody else, but my grades don't reflect anything other than results from 2009 and a little weight based on expectations. Not how I think they will do next year, not how they did last year.

[Flood Pants]

I'm half-tempted to bump Counsell up into the A category. Not because he deserves to be in any team's starting lineup, though. His combination of defense and last year's offense are hard to find in a utility infielder. Normally, you're getting a guy who can't hit well enough to hold down a lineup spot and can kind of sort of play every infield position without embarassing himself. Counsell gave this team so much more, and for a bargain price.

[endaround]

Haudricort gave Looper a C+. After all he got all those wins!

[rluzinski]

Gallardo with a B and Looper with a C+. And it's not like they don't appreciate the difference in run support each got. They mentioned it in both player's write ups.

 

The "team offense" grade is very odd as well, IMO. They point out that only 2 other NL teams scored more runs and say, "[it] is, after all, the name of the game." But then they go on to complain about strikeouts and the running game and then slaps the offense with a B- grade. Half the explanation centered around them whining that Macha was too passive on the base paths. Does that mean the runs they scored were worth less somehow? Would an offense that scored less runs but had better base running get a higher grade than the Brewers? Maybe they just thought that only three NL offenses deserved a grade of B- or higher.

 

Wouldn't you just love seeing this kind of stuff in NFL reporting? "The Colts scored the 3rd most points in the AFC last year. But while they had a good pass completion percentage, they dropped too many passes. They also weren't good running draw plays or screens: B-.

[logan82]

Escobar lived up to his reputation as a sometimes sensational defender in the field but also confirmed the scouting report that he sometimes makes careless mistakes.

 

Sounds like average defense to go along with average offense for a SS. B+ for Escobar. He out hit JJ for only a little bit and played much worse defense than JJ. D for JJ. The only reason Escobar got a slightly higher grade from me is because JJ fell way short of expectations and Escobar exceeded expectations.

[TooLiveBrew]

It always makes me chuckle when the old 'he's incredibly gifted, but he sometimes makes careless mistakes' line is thrown out there. Literally every player "sometimes makes careless mistakes", but it's far too often applied to the guys that have exceptional ability (like Escobar in terms of defense) -- like it's some downside only that particular player has.

 

Meanwhile, we're inundated by the sports media with nonsense like Nick Punto is 'just a ballplayer' ... 'plays the game the right way' ... & that 'managers just love this guy'. I can't stand it.

 

Imo it's objectively not a knock on a player that "he sometimes makes careless mistakes", but when it's applied to the supremely-gifted guys, I always get a sense of some jealousy -- 'Yeah, he makes incredible plays, but sometimes he boots the routine one!' Well, no doy. Baseball players make mistakes sometimes, you say? I hate how it's used almost as an indictment against the more gifted players, like they have to validate themselves by not just being better than their peers ... but by being flawless.

[trwi7]

Alex Rodriguez is a great player.

 

 

 

 

 

In the regular season. He wears a choke collar in the playoffs.

 

 

Kind of like that TLB?

[logan82]

They probably should have said that Escobar made some great plays, but was inconsistent.

[TooLiveBrew]

Alex Rodriguez is a great player.

 

 

 

 

 

In the regular season. He wears a choke collar in the playoffs.

 

 

Kind of like that TLB?

Yes. Exactly like that. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/mad.gif

 

 

 

They probably should have said that Escobar made some great plays, but was inconsistent.

 

Agreed, but these comments are rarely phrased that way. I often wonder if it's just the writer(s) fishing for something negative to say about a player... kind of like how saying a guy is a battler/scrappy/gritty is often fishing for something nice to say.

[Ennder]

Alex Rodriguez is a great player.

 

 

 

 

 

In the regular season. He wears a choke collar in the playoffs.

 

 

Kind of like that TLB?

This is how incredibly clueless people view Arod and I find it funny how dumb they look this season.

[logan82]

You mean to say that A-Rod just happened to have a few bad series during the playoffs? No way. That would never happen to a great player. Maybe they just needed somebody to take the all the pressure off of A-Rod. Good thing they got Teixeira or A-Rod would still suck.