End of season grades

[LouisEly]

With only one week left in the season the performances for the year can probably be evaluated now.

 

Prince Fielder - A+, 2nd to Pujols in just about everything, league leader and team record for RBIs, equally effective vs righties as lefties, improved defense too - 4th in NL 1B fielding %

Ryan Braun - A, improved OBP by almost .050 over last year, top 10 in NL in OPS, best fielding % of any NL LF

Felipe Lopez - A, .406 OBP since acquired

Casey McGehee - B+, who would have anticipated this type of season? Fielding % keeps him from an A.

Craig Counsell - B, who would have thought he could still have this type of season?

Mike Cameron - B-, good - defense, only CF with significantly higher OPS is Kemp; bad - led team in Ks, worst BA of any NL CF, bottom half of NL CFs in OBP

Frank Catalanotto - C, improved bench significantly

Jody Gerut - C-, starting to produce with regular ABs

Corey Hart - D, bottom half of NL RFs in OPS, declined 2nd year in a row - should be improving at age 27

JJ Hardy - D, only NL SS with worse OPS was Renteria, but only three NL SS with better fielding %

Mike Rivera - D, may have been better with more consistent playing time

Jason Kendall - D-, worst OPS of any NL C with 300 plate appearances, OBP not even in top half

Bill Hall - F, no analysis necessary

Chris Duffy. Brad Nelson - F, small sample, but failed in their roles and were let go

 

Incomplete - Weeks, Escobar, Gamel, Iribarren, Bourgeois

 

Trevor Hoffman - A, no way is he 41

Todd Coffey - A-, surprise nugget who solidified the set-up role

Chris Smith - B, better season than many give him credit for, only Vargas and Hoffman had a lower WHIP

Mark DiFelice - B, did well until he got hurt; would like to see him throw more innings

Mitch Stetter - B, .616 OPS-A vs. lefties is decent, for a specialist could be better; not bad vs. righties

Claudo Vargas - B, maybe he's found his niche in the bullpen

Yo Gallardo - B-, wore down, needs to get his walks down

Chris Narveson - C, as the sample size gets bigger he seems to be decent

Seth McClung - C, did well in the bullpen until he was forced into the rotation, wasn't the same after that

David Weathers - D+, starting to show his age; I'd rather take a chance with Axford next year

Dave Bush - D+, injury made his numbers worse than he really was

Braden Looper/Jeff Suppan - D, could write the same thing about both; perspective - supposedly average ERAs for 4th/5th starters... but still not good. At least they didn't get hurt, but salaries demand more.

Carlos Villanueva - D, shows flashes of brilliance, but more flashes of awfulness

Mike Burns - D, had a couple of good starts after his callup

Manny Parra - D-, a couple of brilliant starts after his recall saved him from an F

Jorge Julio/Jesus Colome/RJ Swindle - F, you get released, you get an F

 

Incomplete - Axford, Butler, Dillard, Riske

 

Problem - too many key players with D grades

[Invader3K]

Nice analysis. I more or less agree with your grades.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Great analysis Louis. No huge arguments from me. I might knock Braunie down to A-, just on his fielding. Same with Lopez for the mental errors. I might upgrade Counsell to an A...where would we have been without that guy this year? Can we give Prince something higher than A+, maybe A+ with honors? Outside of Yount in 1982, I can't think of a better season by a Brewers player and even that might be up for debate.

 

Those grades really show the problem with the pitching. The back end of the bullpen was actually pretty good. The starters - 4 D's and a B...that will get you kicked out of school. With the run production, decent fielding and solid backend bullpen...I know there are plenty of better metrics to describe it, but they just need quality starts. If they had 1 A (Yo 1H), 1 B (Bush before he got hurt), 2 C's (Manny and Looper's replacement) and a D (Suppan is fine as a 5, as long as he's the only one)...they are probably in the hunt.

[Invader3K]

The starters - 4 D's and a B...that will get you kicked out of school.

 

This made me chuckle, as it's pretty much a dead on accurate assessment of the season.

[joepepsi]

Wow, great grading Louis. I agree with pretty much everything. At first glance I thought you were being harsh on Villy. He had some very good stretches, but in the end, he was gadawful for a considerable time. With the benefit of hindsight, I wonder if it would have been smarter to put him in AAA all year and see if he could make it back at rotation depth.

[pitchleague]

your grades look pretty good.

 

I probably would have given Weeks a grade, however, rather than and Incomplete. For the 7-8 weeks that he played with the team, he was probably an A-/B+ kind of guy. If you wanted to "weigh" his grade down due to the injury, I could see dropping his grade one whole letter (B-/C+).

[Menotti80]

overall i agree with your grades.

 

i would lower the grade of these players slightly:

braun, coffey, hardy

 

i would raise the grades of these players slightly"

looper, mcgehee, counsell, rivera

 

i also dont know how weeks, escobar and gamel get incompletes but nelson and duffey get grades...

 

Player TEAM POS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG

1. R Weeks MIL 2B 37 147 28 40 5 2 9 24 76 12 39 2 2 .340 .517 .272

2. M Gamel MIL 3B 56 123 11 29 5 1 5 19 51 17 51 1 0 .331 .415 .236

3. A Escobar MIL SS 33 103 14 31 3 1 1 11 39 3 12 1 1 .324 .379 .301

4. C Duffy MIL OF 19 32 3 4 1 0 0 3 5 4 12 0 0 .222 .156 .125

5. B Nelson MIL OF 19 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 0 0 .087 .000 .000

 

for me: weeks and excobar get an A-, and gamel gets a C

[JohnBriggs12]

Villanueva wasn't that bad. His peripherals nearly matched what he did in 08. He was certainly better than McClung. Villanueva's WHIP of 1.41 is much better than McClung's 1.633. Villanueva also had more K's per 9 innings, a better K/BB ratio, and fewer HR per 9 innings. The stretch that "Mclung did well in the bullpen" wasn't any longer than the 2 seperate good stretches Villanueva put up.

 

As a reliever, Villanueva has had scoreless outings in 71.9% of his appearances. That number is closer to Coffey's 75.7% rate of scoreless relief appearances than it is McClung's 59.4%.

 

If Villanueva's a D (I'd give him a C- or a D+), then McClung is a D-.

 

I also thing your grade on Rivera is off. His numbers are pretty average for a backup catcher, so he should be a C, not a D.

 

Otherwise, the grades are pretty well on save Bush who I'd give a D- based on results vs. expectations.

[brewers4eric]

I think you did a nice job on the analysis. Chris Narveson should get a note as this year's Gary Glover.

 

Personally, I'm blaming part of our problems with the rotation on Chase Wright and Nick Green. Around spring training, they were expected to add needed depth to the starting rotation and their acquisition looked like a savvy move by Melvin. Due to injury or ineffectiveness, they didn't do enough in the minor leagues to even warrant a callup when they might have been needed.

 

Our 2009 rotation didn't have enough talent at the front end, or depth at the back end. The bullpen did better than expected based on an outstanding closer, coupled with sporadic performances from the guys that were trying to get him the ball. The offense needs to improve on the on-base percentage so that we hit more three run homers than solo shots.

 

Craig Counsell had an outstanding year, but I believe that an indicator of the team's success is based on the number of times that he doesn't start. When he is on the bench, it means that Weeks is healthy and we've found a long term answer for third base.

[Ennder]

Nice list overall, I'd have some minor disagreements but nothing really stands out.

[LouisEly]

I see your point JB about CV vs. SM; while CV had a lower WHIP, SM had a lower ERA as a reliever and that included the last couple of outings when he was either hurt or something was wrong that caused him to get hurt (easy to get injured when you are compensating for something else that doesn't feel right). Prior to being forced into the rotation SM had an ERA less than 3.00 and a great OPS-A - I believe his OPS-A was in the low .600 and had a higher OBP-A than SLG-A, which to me says that of the walks/hits given up they were predominantly walks and singles. I can't find splits as far as their OPS-A strictly as relievers, as I place more value on that than WHIP, but if someone can find that I'd be interested in seeing it. As for peripherals, I understand their implications but I grade more on performance than peripherals.

 

My grade was based more on SM's performance prior to being forced into the rotation, because after that he didn't seem to be the same, and on his performance strictly as a reliever. His performance prior to being forced into the rotation was around a B+ and his performance in the pen after coming back from the rotation (debatable as far as health) was a D-, so I averaged that to a C. Same with CV - my grade was based on his performance as a reliever, and over the course of a season an ERA of 4.85 as a reliever is a D performance.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Might have to throw Carlos Corporan a bone, he did hit 1.000 after all.

 

Jorge Julio should get an F- and placed on double secret probation. Releasing him wasn't enough. He should have been required to serve some type of detention.

[rluzinski]

These kind of lists always seem to be centered around expectations vs. results. Is that true of this as well?

[hawing]

Jorge Julio should get an F- and placed on double secret probation. Releasing him wasn't enough. He should have been required to serve some type of detention.

I like the idea of the phrase "Jorge Julio reparations."

[DuWayne Steurer]

These kind of lists always seem to be centered around expectations vs. results. Is that true of this as well?

That's what I was thinking. "Well, we expected this guy to completely suck, but he was actually league average, so he gets an A-!"

 

Not that that was said, but that's the vibe that comes off the list.

 

Let me add some grades while I'm at it.

 

Ken Macha -- D-. Would have been a D+, but he had Corey Patterson bat leadoff. I don't care that it was only for one game, that's not excuseable.

Bill Castro/Chris Bosio. - D. Coaching is very hard to measure. It's an intangible that doesn't come through in a way that it's statistically measureable, but I think it's safe to say that Maddux was missed this year.

[logan82]

Ken Macha -- D-. Would have been a D+, but he had Corey Patterson bat leadoff. I don't care that it was only for one game, that's not excuseable.

 

It was 2 games back to back. I think you should drop your grade even lower because of that.

[topper09er]

Ken Macha -- D-. Would have been a D+, but he had Corey Patterson bat leadoff. I don't care that it was only for one game, that's not excuseable.

He also batted Kendall leadoff 8 games with these results:

.243/.317/.270/ 3 R/ 1 RBI

[reillymcshane]

louis, nice list. Sure we can all quibble here and there, but you got things pretty solid.

[logan82]

I won't quibble with your pitcher grades, but I will grade the guys after the season is over and see how my grades turn out compared to your grades.

[LouisEly]

That's what I was thinking. "Well, we expected this guy to completely suck, but he was actually league average, so he gets an A-!"

 

Not sure where you get that vibe. No one who was "league average" got higher than a C. The only factor other than performance that had any impact was salary, and that was only in the case of Suppan and Looper; had either been on a one year $2M deal they might have gotten a C- as for that money they would be expected to only be a 4th/5th starter at which they were average, but for their salaries more was expected of them. Looper at a one year $5M deal might be worthy of a D+, but for all intensive purposes should get the same grade as Suppan.

 

If that has to do with Lopez, I only graded his performance as a Brewer, which at that point was a .406 OBP - that's an A grade for a leadoff hitter for me.

 

Edit - maybe I should have waited for Weathers; after today's game he's down to a D, approaching D-.

[rluzinski]

So, production vs. cost? Start with the last column here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Brewers&pos=all&stats=bat&qual=0&type=6&season=2009&month=0

 

And compare that to their actual salaries:

 

http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewTeamSalary.do?teamId=1

 

Some notables, with your grade for them:

 

Fielder: +$20 mil (A+)

Braun: +$20 mil (A)

Lopez: +10 mil (A)

Cameron: +$10 mil (B-) Just an example of baseball fans getting hung up on BA and K when they shouldn't. You are grading "prettiness" here, not production.

Hardy: +$1 mil (D) Hardy's D probably makes him worth about what he was paid this year. That just illustrates that a good defensive SS can hit bad and still have lot's of value. He should get a C grade unless you care about expectations.

 

Hoffman: +1$ mil (A) Now, he get's to work in higher leverage situations, so you can say his production is worth more. Even if you double the value of his production, it puts him at +$8mil.

 

Gallardo: +$12 mil (B-) A 3.73 ERA in 185 IP for league min. No pitcher was even close to being this valuable but Yo get's a B-?

 

I don't think this is a bad list by any means but your grade for Cam and Yo are way off, IMO.

[joepepsi]

I understood the grading to be players 2009 production vs. their individual past performance and compared to the rest of the league at that position.

 

Gallardo had a very good, but not great season. He finished 19 in the league in ERA, 25th in WHIP. He was tied for 4th with most K's, but was 2nd with most walks. Overall an impressive first full season, but just shy of the level of his past performance. I suppose you can argue is was an "A" season for first full year from a 23 year old starting pitcher. Compared to the best starting pitchers in the league he was maybe a half to full step below. Upon consideration I'd give him a B+. He's not quite the pitcher we hope he'll be, but he's a damn fine pitcher all the same.

 

Hardy deserves a D. His hitting has been and remains terrible. So bad that he was kicked off the team for a spell and won't even have enough plate appearances to qualify for a batting title. If you compare him to the 10 regular NL ss who do have the requisite number of plate appearances, he has the 10th worst OPS, narrowly beating last place Renteria by .020 points. Even if his defense was Cesar Izturis good, there's no way it can make up for that crappy performance on offense. At least not enough to make him an average, or "C" shortstop in the league.

[rluzinski]

I understood the grading to be players 2009 production vs. their individual past performance and compared to the rest of the league at that position.

 

The author said:

 

The only factor other than performance that had any impact was salary

 

Part performance has nothing to do with it. In my opinion it's the most useful way to grade players, so I'm glad to here it. Performance - salary = value.

 

His hitting has been and remains terrible. So bad that he was kicked off the team for a spell and won't even have enough plate appearances to qualify for a batting title.

 

Melvin sending Hardy doesn't and shouldn't influence an independent, objective analysis of Hardy's value (beyond what the limited PA does to his offensive value). The numbers are the numbers.

 

A guy like Neifi Perez was allowed to accumulate 5500 PA with a career line of .267/.297/.375/.672. It was because his defense was awesome and the team's he played for knew it. there are other examples as well. Adam Everett has a career line of .245/.297/.351/.648. Ozzie Smith is in Hall of fame with a line of .262/.337/.328/.666 (different era, obviously). The point is, if a SS plays very good defense for a given year, he can stink offensively and still have value. Whether some franchise recognize that (or feel they have a better option) is irrelevant. If you think UZR overvalues Hardy's true defensive talents, fine.

 

As for expectations, I think anyone expecting more than a 3.73 ERA and 185 innings from Gallardo this was setting themselves up for disappointment. If you are concerned about some of his secondary stats, that's understandable considering what it does to his future projection. We are just talking about performance, though.

[logan82]

Even if his defense was Cesar Izturis good, there's no way it can make up for that crappy performance on offense.

 

Izturis was only a run better on defense measured by UZR/150 than Hardy.(6.9-7.9)

[LouisEly]

I don't think this is a bad list by any means but your grade for Cam and Yo are way off, IMO.

 

Fangraphs is merely someone's opinion, as this list is mine. And if K's don't matter for hitters, then they shouldn't matter for pitchers - you can't have that both ways.

 

I stated my argument for Cam - while his SLG and defense is very good, his OBP was below average; I get blasted all the time that OBP is twice as valuable as SLG. For what it's worth, Cam's OBP is less than TGJ's this year. And then there is his $10M salary, which demands a bit more production. I could buy a "B" for his performance, but no higher. We'll have to agree to disagree here.

 

Gallardo hasn't gone as many as 7 innings since August 9th; he hasn't gone more than 7 innings since July 25th, and now he's shut down for the year. His performance in August and September have been awful - an ERA over 5.00 both months. Suppan/Parra/Bush/Looper aren't the only ones who have taxed the bullpen. He's 23rd in OBP-A, and 21st in OPS-A. 30th in the league in quality start %. He had a good year, but not a great year - that to me is the definition of a B. What I didn't want to take a lot of space explaining was that a 3.74 ERA that issues less walks generally goes deeper into games and thus less wear on the bullpen; that is what dropped him from a B to a B-. While what Yo did was what was about what was expected of him, I do not grade based on expectations - I said I graded based on performance with a slight factor of salary involved. Nor do I grade based on age. I could buy a "B" for his performance, but certainly he didn't earn any higher than that.

 

Russ, while Fangraphs has its place in the baseball world, it is merely opinion (see what their value of Nyjer Morgan is compared to Cameron and Braun). Just because someone doesn't take Fangraphs as gospel doesn't make them "way off".

 

Edit: In case it wasn't explicitly stated, much of it was based on their performance relative to others in the NL at the same position. Thus in the case of Hardy, where he had the second worst OPS and 2nd worst OBP of any SS in the NL, that earns him a well-below average grade, thus a D.