Gamel's future

[monty57]

bklyn, I've been agreeing with you a lot recently. Macha has already said 3B is McGehee's to start next season. Melvin has re-upped Macha, so I think Gamel has to be traded. Gamel's role with the Brewers next year would either be at AAA, or as a 2nd or 3rd LH option off the bench (as it was this year while he was up). He's getting to the age that other teams will stop seeing him as a prospect if he's still in AAA, and he'll lose all of his value if he's a rarely used bench player, so he probably needs to be traded, hopefully in a package that brings back a very good young pitcher. I just hope the return in trade makes up for the difference in production between Gamel and McGehee for the next 5-6 years.

 

But at least Macha won't be in a zim-zam to start the season, and all will be well until another good young player makes the mistake of being drafted by the Brewers, works his way through the system and gets promoted to the big league team. Ahh, it will feel wonderful to see the 90's all over again.

[greeg35]

Why would the Brewers trade him right now? His value is probably lower than it should be, he's young, he's cheap, he's under our control, and he's talented. Melvin doesn't tend to trade players like that.

 

This 'Macha hates young guys' thing is being thrown around as gospel and there's no basis for it. Macha dislikes underperforming and/or immature players. Gamel will figure it out and when he does we'll see his PT and his production go up.

[mletto157]

Gamel will figure what out? If you look at his statistics he has already figured out how to hit. Apparently the only thing he needs to figure out is maturity...

 

I'm extremely scared that everyone in the organization is so in love with Casey McGehee they totally forgot why he landed as a Brewer in the 1st place. He's not a great player. He's a good backup/utility guy. If he somehow maintains a level similar to this year for the rest of his career, that's wonderful, and I'd be glad to have it. But, I just don't think it's too likely. He will most likely regress closer to where his minor league numbers suggest he should be. Gamel on the otherhand is a good player. He should be starting at 3B in the near future. In the longrun I will be very surprised if Gamel doesn't out-produce McGehee.

[joepepsi]

I'd only trade Gamel if he's part of a deal that brings a top flight starting pitcher whom they'd control for at least a couple years. Otherwise, let this work out in Spring Training. Worst case scenario Gamel goes to AAA and is used in a deadline deal, or he tears up AAA for the year and is the starting 3B in 2011.

[Animal100]

It seems to me that Melvin should have a pretty clear idea of Gamel's role for next year, but you have to look at the team as a whole and assume a few very reasonable things:

 

A) Prince is in his final year as a Brewer in 2010

B) Either Lopez or Counsel will be back but not both - my guess is Lopez costs too much to retain

C) None of Gamel, McGehee, or Weeks are traded

D) Hardy or Escobar is traded - my guess is that Hardy is traded and does not slide over to third

 

With that being the case, you would have Weeks and McGehee covering 2B & 3B and Counsel again covering the super-sub role he is so good at.

 

The preferred outcome is that:

 

1) Weeks comes back from injury and plays well, reclaiming 2B.

2) McGehee proves that he is not a one year wonder.

3) Gamel plays the year at AAA to reclaim his swing, cut down on strikeouts, improve his D, get a better work discipline, and try him out a few games during the season at another position (i.e. 1B to cover the loss of Prince in 2011).

 

- If Weeks really struggles, then McGehee moves over to second and Gamel gets a real shot at third.

- If McGehee has another good season his trading value will jump (and we could get more than the #5 pitcher for him we would get this offseason) or he could be our 2B / 3B for several years to come.

- If Gamel has the year in the minors he is capable of, then he gets the 3B job in 2011 if McGehee is moved to 2B or traded; or better still, Gamel is the lefty that learns how to play first to cover the loss of Prince the following year while McGehee and Weeks cover 3B & 2B.

 

Certainly there are some big IF's to that line of thinking, but it would potentially maximizes Gamel and McGehee's value and it seems like the most cost effective route. It also gives the Brewers depth so they are covered in case of injury. And, most important, they will have a plan in place for the departure of Prince.

[yount19.u]

As long as Gamel underperforms and McGehee over performs, there should be no switch at third. If McGehee starts to slip and Gamel starts to show why he is a top prospect, then make it happen, but Gamel needs to earn that spot. McGehee earned the starting spot at third, so why should the team give it to someone who should be better than him? On the field performance at the major league level dictates who gets to start the vast majority of the time. Gamel needs to really show them something to start next year.

[mletto157]

And his .864 OPS when starting at 3B wasn't enough to show them anything? That's just about what McGehee did in a career year this year that he's unlikely to repeat...

[yount19.u]

.864 OPS starting at third, but .760 for the season with a ton of strike outs. That number is also inflated by a good start. McGehee had an .859 OPS for the season and that included a slow start with limited playing time off the bench, just like Gamel had at the end of the season. I hope Gamel is all that his prospect status suggests he is, but I don't think any of his numbers have convinced the team he's next years everyday starter at third. A huge spring may chance their minds.

[Never Outhustled]

.

864 OPS starting at third, but .760 for the season with a ton of strike outs. That number is also inflated by a good start

Thats just untrue. His 2 lowest OPS months were his 1st 2 months. He improved from there. As for the strikeouts, I'm glad his weakness is a completely useless stat, and not something that actually affects how many runs a team scores.

[sheethead]

Thats just untrue. His 2 lowest OPS months were his 1st 2 months. He improved from there. As for the strikeouts, I'm glad his weakness is a completely useless stat, and not something that actually affects how many runs a team scores.

I'm sorry, but if Gamel continues to strike out in 42% of his official at-bats, it most definitely will affect how many runs the team scores if he gets anywhere near 300 ABs.

[Never Outhustled]

I'm sorry, but if Gamel continues to strike out in 42% of his official at-bats, it most definitely will affect how many runs the team scores if he gets anywhere near 300 ABs.

If he got 500 ABs, He'd have about 100 more Ks than the other 3Bs, which would cause an adjustment factor of 1 run off the teams total runs scored for the entire season. That isn't even worth mentioning.

 

Gamel has a smooth, short swing. He likely end up being a contact hitter. If he ends up like Cameron or Branyan or Ryan Howard, thats fine too.

 

 

The Brewers finished 3rd in the NL in Ks, but still finished 3rd in Runs Scored, because we were 3rd in OPS. the teams that finished higher in Runs Scored were 1 and 2 in OPS. Colorado finished 2nd in both Runs Scored and Ks. The teams that K'd the least were in the bottom half in Runs Scored.

[trwi7]

X, I agree with you completely but I think its a lock that Gamel will be traded now that Macha is back. I also believe that Melvin is gonna be fooled by McGehee having a career year.

 

Sounds like you might be right.

 

 

So, if McGehee is the third baseman, might Gamel be traded in a deal for a pitcher? Maybe so, when you look at these comments by Ash:

"We've been highly reluctant to trade top prospects in the past but we might have to do that. There is a risk-reward scenario in play. We're going to probably have to be higher risk taking than we have been in the past."

Link

[joepepsi]

Animal100 has the right plan going forward. I suspect this is exactly what the organization is thinking. They shouldn't feel that Gamel or McGehee needs to be traded at this point.

[MJLiverock]

The problem with never being willing to trade good players is that you never get good players in return. Melvin can trade scrub for scrub all he wants but the odds of actually improving a dismal pitching rotation via that method just aren't very good. You have to give to get, especially when acquiring pitching.

[Never Outhustled]

Animal100 has the right plan going forward. I suspect this is exactly what the organization is thinking. They shouldn't feel that Gamel or McGehee needs to be traded at this point

That plan would fit if we had starting pitching, but we don't, so position player depth is a luxory we can not afford. We can likely snag a nice starting pitcher for McGehee, and thats something we need to act on.

 

Take care of the stating pitching 1st, if we need to add a position player during the season, we can do that then, through trade, just as we did very well the last 2 years with Durham and Lopez. Its far easier to add stopgap position players during the season than it is to add a starting pitcher.

[sheethead]

The Brewers finished 3rd in the NL in Ks, but still finished 3rd in Runs Scored, because we were 3rd in OPS.

 

If Gamel gets 500 ABs, and strikes out 210 times in those ABs while maintaining a .760 OPS, he will end up costing the team over 17 runs vs. a player that could OPS .740 with half his Ks. I can't disagree with what you said about team run scoring with mashers all around him, but all else remaining constant (including a .760 OPS at 3rd base), if Gamel Ks at the rate he did this year it will affect more than one run for the season. Especially if you can find someone who can OPS the same but with half the Ks.

 

Whoops, that's bad math. I come up with 3 runs. That's not worth mentioning. Keep up with the ugly Gamel, as long as you hit a dinger once a week.

[Never Outhustled]

If Gamel gets 500 ABs, and strikes out 210 times in those ABs while maintaining a .760 OPS, he will end up costing the team over 17 runs vs. a player that could OPS .740 with half his Ks.

Where did you come up with this equation? Those numbers don't come close to anything I've ever seen. Every 100 Ks cost 1 run. 20 points of OPS is worth far more than 1 run.

 

 

Edit: Nevermind, I see you've edited while I was typing. Thanks.

[mletto157]

I hope they don't trade Gamel now, because IMO they will regret it sooner rather than later.

 

Yount19 - don't you think it's interesting that both Gamel and McGehee struggled with limited playing time? That's pretty much what happens with younger players. So the fact that Gamel had a .864 OPS while starting at 3B is definitely an important stat. Most young hitters, or all hitters for that matter, play better with consistent playing time.

[MJLiverock]

Mark Reynolds just K'd 223 times this year and I dont' think there are too many complaints about his production. His defense may be another matter. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[yount19.u]

mletto157[/b]]I hope they don't trade Gamel now, because IMO they will regret it sooner rather than later.

 

Yount19 - don't you think it's interesting that both Gamel and McGehee struggled with limited playing time? That's pretty much what happens with younger players. So the fact that Gamel had a .864 OPS while starting at 3B is definitely an important stat. Most young hitters, or all hitters for that matter, play better with consistent playing time.

Agreed, but I think McGehee did a better job with his time including being a bench player. I don't think Gamel should be on the bench waiting for his time to come. He should be in AAA and if the right opportunity presents itself, brought up to be a starter. He is wasted on the bench.

[Animal100]

Animal100 has the right plan going forward. I suspect this is exactly what the organization is thinking. They shouldn't feel that Gamel or McGehee needs to be traded at this point

That plan would fit if we had starting pitching, but we don't, so position player depth is a luxory we can not afford. We can likely snag a nice starting pitcher for McGehee, and thats something we need to act on.

 

Take care of the stating pitching 1st, if we need to add a position player during the season, we can do that then, through trade, just as we did very well the last 2 years with Durham and Lopez. Its far easier to add stopgap position players during the season than it is to add a starting pitcher.

That plan for Gamel and the infield does still allow us to address the starting pitching as (Hardy/Hart/Prospects other than Gamel) would be traded for a pitcher and the salary savings we would get from possibly not resigning Kendall/Looper/Cameron could go towards a free agent; hopefully giving us two new decent pitchers.

 

Also, as others have mentioned, I'm not certain that trading McGehee would net us anything more than a #5 pitcher at this point. GMs won't give up much for him without proof that this past season wasn't a fluke like his minor league career suggests it is.

[Never Outhustled]

Also, as others have mentioned, I'm not certain that trading McGehee would net us anything more than a #5 pitcher at this point. GMs won't give up much for him without proof that this past season wasn't a fluke like his minor league career suggests it is.

I think your over estimating how much baseball people base evaluations on minor league stats. Most scout and look for tools. We picked McGehee up because of his batspeed, not his minor league resume, and then he went out and had a very strong season. A number of teams need a right-handed hitting 3B, including teams with excess starting pitching, like Atlanta and the White Sox. I think we land a talented pitcher for McGehee.

 

Matt Joyce, similar to McGehee in the fact that he wasn't a top prospect through the minor but then hit 17 homers in limited ABs as a rookie, was traded for Edwin Jackson last offseason.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I really think we are going to make a serious mistake if we trade Gamel instead of McGehee. If Gamel plays every day he will be a great hitter and he is lefthanded which is exactly what we need. I just cant see any way that Gamel will ever get a fair shot with Macha around and that is just sad.

[ELCABALLO45]

I think everyone needs to remember Gamel is terrible on defense, and that might be a little to easy on him.

 

Not saying I want McGehee, just saying.

[TooLiveBrew]

Gamel is far from terrible on D. I think he's going to be a better hitter & fielder than McGehee at 3B, and genuinely believe that could happen as soon as 2010. If the Brewers deal him, it'd better be for a young, cost-controlled, stud SP... preferably from the American League.

 

Brooklyn sums it up for me, really, with his post #123. The organization has already botched Gamel pretty big-time. I just hope they don't make things worse by dealing him over McGehee (unless it's completely necessary).