Would anybody else feel comfortable with Gerut as our starting CF?

[bklynbrewcrew]

We can keep Cameron and still get a top flight starter by dumping Kendall, Looper and Weathers. This would say us well over 10 million dollars. The problem is that Melvin would probably use that money on Doug Davis or Jarrod Washburn and that is just not good enough.

[Tbadder]

I'd be very much in favor of Gerut being our RF platoon against righthanders. Against RH pitching I think he's a clear upgrade on Hart. I don't think we'll get what we need or deserve if we move Hart, so I'd like to retain him for the other half of the platoon. Frank Cat has got to go though. His defense isn't anywhere near the other two, and his inability to take/work walks leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Plus, he doesn't have the power of Hart/Gerut either. As far as Cameron goes, I love the dude, but if I could get the draft choice (s) I'd let him go and take my chances, knowing full well the team would be hurt in the short term.

[greeg35]

The problem is that Melvin would probably use that money on Doug Davis or Jarrod Washburn and that is just not good enough.

Who should he spend it on?

[bklynbrewcrew]

He should make a trade for viable starter and not settle for third rate soft tossers with no upside.

[mletto157]

And I'm sure that's exactly what he's been trying to do for the past two years... You think Looper would have been his first choice? Do you remember how late we signed him? He was the last option after nothing else panned out. GM's aren't stupid - they likely don't want to give up potential impact pitchers for our scraps. If we don't want the players... most GM's aren't going to give us much for them.

[FVBrewerFan]

That's what a GM is for. Of course it's not easy, but a great GM should have the knowledge, instincts, and quality people to identify that "diamond in the rough." Find guys who are about to be great, then find a way to get them.

 

Not the best analogy in the world, but it will help explain my point. Ron Wolf went out and got a 3rd string QB from Atlanta, and overpaid to get him. Most thought he was insane, but he knew what he was doing. I understand baseball is different, and there's a much higher rate of failure in identifying top of the rotation pitchers. But Melvin has had how many years now? Six? And he hasn't found ONE.

[RockCoCougars]

The thing that irks me is that Melvin didn't do more to get Peavy. He would have been perfect. You can say that he had a no trade clause and wouldn't have came to Milwaukee, but two of his former teammates in Hoffman and Cameron are here and seem to like it a lot. Both those guys are considered 'elder statesmen' of the game and likely they could have had some pull with Peavy. Going further, people say that SD wanted young pitching that we didn't have. Melvin could have worked around that as well with a three way trade or something. You can't tell me that we couldn't have gotten some young pitching for Gamel, Hardy, etc. You have to be creative....

 

My guess is that Peavy was on Melvin's radar for this offseason and the White Sox swept in and stole his thunder, which really sucks because he was by far the best option out there.

[TooLiveBrew]

I understand baseball is different, and there's a much higher rate of failure in identifying top of the rotation pitchers. But Melvin has had how many years now? Six? And he hasn't found ONE.

 

Unless you count Gallardo.

 

 

My guess is that Peavy was on Melvin's radar for this offseason and the White Sox swept in and stole his thunder, which really sucks because he was by far the best option out there.

 

Peavy was on Melvin's radar screen in ~ May (iirc). Then Peavy hurt his ankle, killing any chance at a deal. Peavy still has some questions mechanically, and I'm really not sure his contract is the kind the Brewers should be looking to take on. The chances that he'll spend a significant amount of time on the DL in the next year or two are pretty high imho.

 

The reason the ChiSox took on Peavy is that they can afford the risk of a big contract not panning out (like Alex Rios). The Brewers can't afford that kind of mistake, and on top of that are already dealing with one in Suppan.

[Ennder]

Peavy is a disaster waiting to happen, I mean I can't think of a worse player he could have traded for this season. That is like trading for Sheets after he started breaking down.

[Never Outhustled]

Its becoming very clear that Mike Cameron, not Gerut, needs to be our CF next year. I like Gerut, but he fits better for us as a reserve or in RF. Its also becoming clear that if the team wants to save money, they can just non-tender Bush. Because of arbitration, Bush will get a raise from his $4 million salary. You don't pay a scrub like him if its risks losing a 4 WAR player like Cameron. The emergence of Narveson makes it easier to cut the fat with guys like Bush.

[yogallardo43]

With a lack of starting pitching depth, your end all solution is to release Dave Bush. Sure he has pitched poorly this season, but non-tendering him would be a terrible idea. Do you really think Dave Bush is not worth $4 million next season?

[trwi7]

Do you really think Dave Bush is not worth $4 million next season?

 

Not when you have options who can pitch as well as him for $400K. Obviously I would try to trade him first, but he's declined every year since he's been here and we now have options that are just as good as him so there's no reason to spend that $4+M on him.

[Never Outhustled]

How is non-tendering a poor pitcher in his last year of control a terrible move when the alternative is giving him a raise? You think we can't find a similar pitcher in FA for the same price? The upside is we might find someone good.

 

 

Do you really think Dave Bush is not worth $4 million next season?

The screwed up arbitration process will give Bush a raise from $4 million, which he wasn't worth this year.

 

 

With a lack of starting pitching depth, your end all solution is to release Dave Bush.

Our problem isn't rotation depth, its rotation quality. Our 2nd best starting pitcher in Wins Above Replacement is Parra at .7, we need quality, not depth.

[TheCrew07]

I don't think Narveson is necessarily part of the solution to our pitching issues, but I'm unsure how much having Cameron back or not will affect the 2010 team. For me personally it comes down to what happens with the rest of the lineup first. If the team goes young with Escobar, Gamel, and Salome/Lucroy all starting then I think you keep a veteran guy like Cameron. If Hardy and Hart come back with McGehee starting at 3B every day plus a FA C then i think the team has to a go a different direction than Cameron just because of payroll concerns.

 

Cameron isn't someone an organization is going to build around, he's not a player who has to be retained at any cost. At 12 million he'd be better value than any starter we'd get for that money but without upgrading the rotation I don't think Cameron's status matters either way. I like Cam, but if I were the GM I would make Cam's status a function of what happens with the rest of the roster first.

[Ennder]

I really hate the WAR stat for pitchers but since that is the one people seem to be using lets just take a more realistic look at Bush instead of being so results oriented after a bad finish after an injury. It is so hard to realistically judge a pitcher based on a small sample of terribleness following an injury.

 

Over the past 3 seasons Bush has averaged over 1.1 WAR and $4.8M per season. If you include 2006 he is at 1.8 WAR and $6.4M a season. A $4M price tag really isn't out of line at all for him. The problem most certainly was depth though. When the entire rotation was healthy they did ok but not amazing this season, it was the fact we had no #6+ that sunk the team. It sunk it when we couldn't keep Parra down, it sunk it when Bush got hurt and tried to pitch through it, it sunk it when Suppan got hurt and tried to come back too early.

[yogallardo43]

First off, WAR is a very flawed stat to look at when it comes to starting pitching. Second, Dave Bush has not declined every year with the Brewers. After a disappointing 2007 Bush rebounded well in 2008. After a rough start to last year, he was one of main reasons we made the playoffs coming down the stretch. Obviously he was not as good as Sabathia, but without his pitching the Brewers don't make the postseason. His K/BB ratio is still good. His numbers are going to have to even out. I look for a great 2010 out of Bush. Are you really going to tell me if he was a starter on the FA market searching for a one year/$4 million deal you wouldn't pull the trigger on him?

[Never Outhustled]

The problem most certainly was depth though.

Pretty sure if we'd have had 2 starting pitchers worth 9 wins, they wouldn't have been depth, they'd have been starters. When 4/5 of your rotation accounts for less than 1 WAR combined, your depth might as well be a monkey in sunglasses. Mike Burns could have been Cy Young, but it would have been too late for the damage already caused.

[logan82]

Mike Burns could have been Cy Young, but it would have been too late for the damage already caused.

 

I guess I am not sure what damage you are talking about. Seems to me we were in a pretty good position before we had to rely on Burns and the other replacement pitchers.

[TheCrew07]

I don't want to take this thread anymore off topic than it already is, but depth for depth's sake is pure nonsense to me. There's no argument I've read that makes enough sense that I'd bring back replacement level pitchers at 4-6 million. It doesn't matter to me that the salaries aren't horribly overpriced, the pitchers just aren't very good. Wright and Green weren't quality depth, they were worse than the pitchers we already had on the staff. Why waste money on mediocrity?

 

There is no reason for this organization to make moves purely for pitching depth any longer. Our young men in AA and AAA will provide replacement level depth or better next season and they are actually talented and projectable pitchers. Butler, Rivas, and Rogers will be able to get MLB hitters out, and spare me the "they aren't ready yet" card. Until some one can actually give a definitive answer as to when a prospect is "ready" it's a meaningless and empty argument against prospects. Of course they likely aren't stretched out enough for a full MLB season but they don't have to be either if they are injury replacements, their innings can limited in the minors if necessary. Any of those 3 could come up and provide 3-4 MLB starts without impacting their season or hindering their development in any way.

 

The organization is to the point where the Brewers really can't afford to waste roster spots on replacement level depth, we need to have enough 40 man spots to protect the truly talented players in the organization.

[Ennder]

The problem is you are being 100% result oriented TheCrew07. Bush stinks because he pitched poorly after being hit, Suppan stinks because he sucked after he got hurt. You are way underrating almost every pitcher in our rotation with your comments. We did not have a single replacement level pitcher in our rotation this season.

 

Joel Pineiro is not an elite pitcher regardless of what he did this season. Ricky Nolasco does not stink regardless of the bad ERA with the bad luck in LOB%. Joe Saunders was not a great pitcher last year who just lost it this year, his peripherals are almost identical. Same with a Derek Lowe. The result oriented stats are so high in variance that they just are not reliable at all and that is what you are trying to judge these guys by.

[TheCrew07]

No, I'm being talent orientated. Bush, Looper, and Suppan have very little margin for error, Looper and Suppan are on the downside of their careers. Bush has never put together a full season of solid pitching, and even if he does he's a 3 best case. Parra has 1/2 stuff and is still young enough as a pitcher to improve, I'm not against giving him another shot in the rotation.

 

Suppan stunk long before he hurt himself swinging a bat. What's the excuse for Looper? Bad luck would probably be it if I had to guess, something about his HR rate normalizing next season or some such... I'm sure you will get your wish and both Bush and Looper will be retained, but it won't be because they are good value for the money, it will be because it's the easiest route to 5 "proven" starters in the rotation.

 

Looper isn't good depth, he's an aging averagish pitcher on the decline... Butler, Rivas, and Rogers are good depth, and could likely put up a similar ERA to Looper with better peripherals, Rivas and Rogers are going to miss bats near Gallardo's pace. The rotation desperately needs another top of the rotation pitcher to pair with Gallardo, then hopefully 2 of Butler, Rivas, and Rogers are ready for the rotation in 2011 but can give us some quality innings if needed next season.

[PeaveyFury]

This thread is about Gerut/Cameron. There are plenty of other threads to carry on a debate about our pitching options for 2010.

[Never Outhustled]

This thread is about Gerut/Cameron. There are plenty of other threads to carry on a debate about our pitching options for 2010.

Thats difficult to do, as the Gerut/Cameron can't be answered without knowing how much money is available to pay Cameron.

 

Some are suggesting losing a consistent 4 WAR player in Cameron so we can keep a .4-2 WAR player in Bush, which seems misguided to me. Pay the players who are the problem and get rid of our 3rd most productive player? That would make us worse.

[Never Outhustled]

The problem is you are being 100% result oriented TheCrew07. Bush stinks because he pitched poorly after being hit

What was Bush's excuse last year, when he was just 1 WAR, despite an ERA the was better than his periferils? What was his excuse before getting hurt this year, when he WAR still was poor. His best month before getting hit was still average at best, and the other months were worse. He's not valuable. He has no upside.

[endaround]

Despite doesn't work. WAR is entirely based on peripherals. Bush has a tendency to out pitch his peripherals, which he was doing to an extent this year until he got hurt.